Tropical Summary for Friday, August, 24

By: Stu Ostro , 10:45 PM GMT on August 24, 2012

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Hi everyone! As a weather geek since infancy (literally -- I had a childhood phobia of thunder and lightning which created a fascination and obsession with weather!), I'm honored to have been invited to become a blogger for Weather Underground!

I will be posting a variety of types of entries, generally on the short side unless time permits for longer ones. I will also be posting tropical cyclone summaries like this one...




Image credit: NERC Satellite Receiving Station, Dundee University, Scotland

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC

- On the one hand, Isaac is still struggling to have persistent, deep, symmetric convection (thunderstorms). On the other hand, today it has become better organized: a more well-defined core has tightened up, aircraft reconnaissance has found flight-level winds that were stronger than had been present previously, and the central pressure (with which wind speed has a relationship) has dropped.

- This is occurring as Isaac approaches Hispaniola, and also an increasing amount of heavy rain is wrapping around the center to the north and northeast, and heading toward the Dominican Republic and Haiti with life-threatening urgency to the expectation of flash flooding and potential for mudslides/landslides. The storm has caused flash flooding, mudslides, downed trees and power outages in Puerto Rico yesterday and today.

- In addition to less ambiguity of where the true center of the storm is, i.e. it's not as broad and discombobulated anymore, Isaac also is making a decisive move more toward the northwest rather than west as it had been going. That, along with a steering feature evident on satellite imagery -- a trough of low pressure dipping south over the eastern Gulf of Mexico -- suggests that Isaac will move readily across Cuba to the Florida Straits and, with its large size and effects extending well in advance of the center, bring them into South Florida and the Keys beginning as early as late tomorrow night and Sunday morning.

- After Isaac enters the Gulf, the model ("European") which is normally thought to be the most accurate but had an epic FAIL with Debby has been erratic with its Isaac track forecast, shifting between a central and eastern Gulf Coast destination, whereas our other main model has been steadier and on the east side, into the Florida Panhandle and quickly. Thus there are still model differences, but regardless, the bottom line is that a tropical storm or hurricane is expected to hit the eastern or central Gulf Coast during the early-middle part of next week, and residents and visitors should stay abreast of the latest forecasts and information.

- Effects from Isaac in the U.S. will include wind, storm surge, high surf, and rainfall, and will be experienced for a longer time by people in the path of Isaac than would be the case with a storm which is tiny in size and dissipates quickly upon making landfall, such as was the case with Beryl when it hit Florida in May. Details of impacts in any given location will depend on the exact track, intensity, and structure of the storm at that time. Effects won’t be confined to the coast, and Isaac will also be capable of spawning tornadoes.


JOYCE

- The system which became Joyce did so briefly but just enough to tie the record for the second earliest date on which the 10th tropical storm of the season formed. It quickly met its demise and is now just a remnant low.



WESTERN PACIFIC

- Weather Underground reports that Typhoon Tembin brought 24 inches of rain in 24 hours in Hengchun, in the southern tip of Taiwan, breaking a 100-year record. Tembin is moving slowly and still rotating bands of heavy rain into southern Taiwan.

- Typhoon Bolaven is very intense -- the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane -- and has a very large expanse of tropical storm force winds as it heads toward Okinawa this weekend.



EASTERN PACIFIC

- No tropical cyclones present or imminent, though an area of thunderstorms in the "monsoon trough" of low pressure offshore of Guatemala is being monitored.

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9. GeorgiaStormz
8:00 PM GMT on March 06, 2013
Quoting Doppler22:
I know you work for the weather channel and I just wish to inform you that your radar is incorrect. It has showed me in the rain multiple times today yet, it has not rained once. It has snowed all day long here in Southern York County, PA. Can you explain why for me please?


it's a rain snow line, that's what they do.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9760
8. Doppler22
8:00 PM GMT on March 06, 2013
I know you work for the weather channel and I just wish to inform you that your radar is incorrect. It has showed me in the rain multiple times today yet, it has not rained once. It has snowed all day long here in Southern York County, PA. Can you explain why for me please?
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3885
7. avlos
12:32 AM GMT on August 26, 2012
Welcome Stu! You have always been one of my favorite forecasters on TWC.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 8 Comments: 131
6. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
5:23 AM GMT on August 25, 2012
welcome aboard
iam sure we will be reading more
of the blogs you post here
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
4. originalLT
2:22 AM GMT on August 25, 2012
Welcome aboard! I associate you with TWC when I liked it better--before all these "canned" shows, when it was purely weather. You do a great job.-- Still not convinced Isaac will make it to the eastern Gomex, could plow into FLA. directly or up the East coast of FLA. I guess we'll see.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8010
3. auburn (Mod)
11:33 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
Welcome!!Nice to meet you,and thank you for the update!
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 547 Comments: 50882
2. BahaHurican
11:26 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
Well, well, well.... Mr. Stu Ostro himself...

Just wrote on the Doc's blog that you were just about the only blogger at wx.com I paid any any attention to.... hope you find a comfortable niche for yourself in Wunderland...

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
1. HurricaneDean07
11:23 PM GMT on August 24, 2012
Welcome to the Team!
Glad you can join us!
Good update.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129

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About stuostro

Senior meteorologist at The Weather Channel. Proud to be a weather-obsessed weather geek. Would be a DJ if not a meteorologist.

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