Size matters

By: Stu Ostro , 1:24 AM GMT on August 27, 2012

Share this Blog
9
+

For my top "Weather images of 2008" blog, I chose the bottom half of the set below as #1 for the year. I'll never forget the feeling I had when looking at that GFS model forecast for the wind field of Ike.

Looking at the current GFS model forecast for the wind field of Isaac (for Tuesday morning, top image) over the Gulf brought a feeling of deja vu. [Yes, I know, the ECMWF forecast track is different, but it also predicts a large wind field for Isaac, and with the GFS I can do an apples-to-apples graphical comparison.]

It remains to be seen how strong Isaac's maximum sustained winds get, and the diameter of tropical storm force winds (yellow line) is not forecast by the model to be quite as extreme as Ike's, but it's big, and Isaac has always been large even when disorganized, and its wind field is going to be quite large over the Gulf and when it makes landfall. (The white line is the diameter of sustained winds of ~25 mph.)

Isaac is in the same Big Tropical Cyclone species as was Ike, in contrast to, say, 2007's Humberto.

The size matters for wave heights, surge height, geographical expanse of coastal flooding and wind impact, duration of the effects in any given place, and depending on the situation it can matter for rainfall too.


Image credit: wright-weather.com

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 7 - 1

Page: 1 — Blog Index

6. DraytonDave
7:29 PM GMT on August 27, 2012
Quoting TxIkeJoe:

I also appreciate hearing from you stu........


Same here . . . thanx!
Member Since: November 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 14
5. HondosGirl
4:00 AM GMT on August 27, 2012
Thanks for the the great post -- I enjoyed the different perspective.
Member Since: August 20, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 111
4. TxIkeJoe
3:50 AM GMT on August 27, 2012
Quoting LobsterSteve:
Love it that you're on Wunderground now, Stu!

I also appreciate hearing from you stu........
Member Since: August 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 17
3. taco2me61
3:45 AM GMT on August 27, 2012
Thanks Stu for the Up-date.... Good information and comparison.... Been watching you on TWC for a long time.... :o)

Taco :o)
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3261
2. LobsterSteve
2:42 AM GMT on August 27, 2012
Love it that you're on Wunderground now, Stu!
Member Since: October 9, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2
1. originalLT
1:47 AM GMT on August 27, 2012
Nice side by side comparison, Mr. Ostro. Clearly shows how big these two storms were/are.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7594

Viewing: 7 - 1

Page: 1 — Blog Index

Top of Page

About stuostro

Senior meteorologist at The Weather Channel. Proud to be a weather-obsessed weather geek. Would be a DJ if not a meteorologist.

Local Weather

Overcast
80 °F
Overcast