And the verdict is ... GFS FAIL!
Early today was the time of when this GFS model temperature departure forecast was for, which I featured in my "More Than 40 Below Average in Peoria?" blog a couple weeks ago.
This is how it turned out ...
The low temperature this morning in Peoria was 28F, 11 degrees above average, not more than 40 below average. That's a bust of >50 degrees.
This was the ECMWF ensemble mean which I included in the January 2 entry. Certainly not perfect -- even it was too aggressive with the western cold, and conversely it didn't reflect the pocket of cold air associated with the current southern storm system -- but its forecast overall was much closer to reality than that operational GFS output.
And the long-range GFS was up to its tricks again recently. Ugh. Caveat emptor.
This forecast made a few days ago for next week had an 850 millibar temperature of <-30C over the Ohio River, which is about as low as it ever gets there (such as during the great arctic outbreak of January 1985).