Senior meteorologist at The Weather Channel. Proud to be a weather-obsessed weather geek. Would be a DJ if not a meteorologist.
By: Stu Ostro , 4:41 PM GMT on August 26, 2012
As time permits, I'll post separate, geekier entries like the one I posted last night, while also posting these overall trosums (tropical summaries) that I do for The Weather Channel...
Image credit: NASA Earth Science Office
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC
- Isaac is hitting the Keys and South Florida with bands of heavy rain and very gusty winds. As the day progresses, those squall bands will swing around to include locations farther north in the peninsula, and include the potential for tornadoes to form. Tonight into tomorrow as the center moves by into the Gulf and the wind direction swings around, the peak storm surge will occur in southwest Florida.
- Although still fighting things outside and inside itself such as dry air and wind shear, it appears as if Isaac is beginning a process of getting better organized than it has been throughout its life so far, and is poised to strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico and then head toward the northern Gulf Coast. We expect Isaac to become a hurricane in the process, exactly which category t.b.d.
- Size matters with tropical cyclones, and this one has had BIG in its "DNA" ever since it was a tropical wave in the Atlantic, and it's still large in size, and that's going to matter as it moves across the Gulf and onto the coast and inland. Wind, rain and storm surge impacts will affect a much larger area than with a tiny cyclone, and surge/waves will be higher. Dangerous rip currents will be generated all the way to South Texas.
- Thus, this is a case in which even if it's "only" a Category 1 or 2 hurricane, it would still pose a serious threat.
- Initial direct effects from outer fringes could arrive onshore on parts of the northern Gulf Coast as early as late tomorrow and tomorrow night, and conditions will deteriorate on Tuesday.
- There has been a general trend for most models to focus more on the central than eastern Gulf Coast for a landfall location. That raises the probability of a Louisiana landfall, yet still with uncertainty in details and with the large expanse of effects, residents and visitors east across Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle and along Apalachee Bay, and west to the upper Texas coast, also need to be very aware of the latest information on Isaac.
ELSEWHERE IN ATLANTIC
- The next system, Invest 97L, is showing signs of organization but is on a track to stay out at sea.
- Models show the one after that, a tropical wave now coming off the African coast, as having the potential to develop and track across the Atlantic to a position not far from the Leeward Islands by Labor Day weekend.
- The center of Typhoon Bolaven has tracked right over Okinawa Island, and is now on a path to North Korea, with its large circulation also affecting South Korea.
- Typhoon Tembin has stalled and is doing a loop, to be headed back to Taiwan, which it already hit.
- An area of concentrated convection well offshore of Mexico is being monitored for signs of further organization.
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