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Last Updated: 3:34 PM GMT on June 26, 2009
— Last Comment: 9:47 AM GMT on June 28, 2009
Well a area of disturbed area of wx I've been watching since yesterday off of the Nicarauga/Hondourus Coastline has moved NNW over the last 24hrs w/atleast 2 decent convective bursts and has been classified 93L now!!!(I was calling it pre-93L last night).It's persistance in a area of marginal shear,to me means that if/when shear drops over the next12-24hrs in the area where 93L's headed(western tip of cuba), the area has a better than 50% chance of becoming atleast a TD over the next 48hrs.However 93L currently is lopsided with most of the convection to the features east,this is what I see happening over the next 24hrs,the area w/slowly develop gaining TD status around tomorrow as the surface circulation strengthens andshould bring up the winds over 30mph near the center,the area should be south of the northwest tip of cuba by tomorrow morning/afternoon...here's a forcast map:The largest L is a upper level low thats retro grading SW,its also increasing divergence over 93L,the second largest L is the current surface circulation,the blue lines indicate the direction of the feature,the black line shows newly formed area of convergence and there is also SAL moving towards the Caribean basin its circled in white,I will update If/when warranted!!!,thanks for reading all questions and comments are welcome~stillwaiting,seriously,lol;)
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Updated: 3:34 PM GMT on June 26, 2009
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Well what else can be said so far for june other than the Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough has been creating unfavorable shear conditions for the most part in the atomosphere's upper levels,along w/a deep layered ridge to the north and west of it shutting down the GOM!!!,However this position is not uncommon for june climatologically speaking,as the axis moves east from june thru july,and lifts a bit to the NE durning august.There is also a MJO pulse moving into t...
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Updated: 6:44 PM GMT on June 19, 2009
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Welcome to Atlantic hurricane season 2009!!!,After mother nature's pre-season TD and another invest in the GOM, we've had a bit of a lull in which current conditions are actually normal w/the Subtropical jet stream making any development in the western carib. not possible,climatology and a negative MJO pulse in the area also have made development chances extremely slim.But over the next week and a half things will start changing as first sheer should be relaxing as ...
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Updated: 12:21 PM GMT on June 04, 2009
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It now appears that there is a area of disturbed weather just offshore of the coasta rican pacific coast,If this area persists the first "invest" of the 2009 hurricane season may quite possibly be forming,however this area is drifting North and w/probably move onshore before development in the pacific,now should this area survive and re-emerge into the SW carib.,It could be our GFS "ghost storm" that was predicted for the upcoming time period.I will update if necces...
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Updated: 6:51 PM GMT on May 03, 2009
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0ct.12 2008 14:00 ... ..Looking at the visable sat loop it now appears that a surface low pressure center is trying to form ESE of cozumel,MX.What ever weather forms should move ashore by tonight not giving it enough time to get any stronger than a TD,For NOW...the area may meander around the general yucatan area and may actually move back SE remerging and forming into what some of the models have been predicting to form in about 96-120hrs in the western carib.........
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Updated: 5:32 PM GMT on October 12, 2008
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 Copyright © 2009 Weather Underground, Inc.
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Copyright © 2009 Weather Underground, Inc.
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