Fight the Amoral Fight

Rainy Season Prediction

By: sp34n119w, 7:11 PM GMT on September 08, 2011

Oh, my, look at the swirlies.

By this time last year I had predicted a wet winter for my portion of SoCal and I was actually correct! What's that saying? “Even a stopped clock is right twice a day” LOL

This year I expected a similar set-up in the patterns, and a month ago I would have said that we were headed for an even wetter rainy season. I'm not so sure, right now. The pattern isn't as clear-cut and there looks to be some uncertainty in the atmosphere.

Even the forecast for the next week is unsettled as multiple systems compete for dominance, swirling their way around each other, interacting in ways the models cannot predict any more than we can. I've seen this several times this summer and it looks to continue through Autumn. Very enjoyable WVTV, in any case.

Nevertheless, and because it's fun to write it down, I will say that it will be a wet rainy season - meaning higher than average rainfall – and not just here but throughout southern California, all the way to the border. How's that for bold? LOL
What I can't say is where that rain will come from. Unlike last year, when I was certain rain would be triggered mainly by systems from the north, the current weirdness does not lend itself to such specificity. That's good, though. It's why I say the folks further south will get their share.

There you go. This entry should last into November.
I'll update it if I change my mind, though ;)

Oh, dang. Now I have to come up with graphics titles …

…..

Square Dancing Swirlies:


For the bigger picture, have a look at the NE Pac WVloop.


Mister Ed May Return!:



From N, S, E, or W? (Okay, not E, but the title would look funny without it):


…..

Random comments are as welcome as weather comments, as always :)


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Chapman Farms
Santa Paula, CA
Elevation: 239 ft
Temperature: 80.0 °F
Dew Point: 62.9 °F
Humidity: 56%
Wind: 10.0 mph from the SW
Wind Gust: 10.0 mph
Updated: 3:40 PM PDT on July 29, 2014
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Santa Paula, CA
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Dew Point: 59.0 °F
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Wind Gust: 8.0 mph
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Elevation: 276 ft
Temperature: 72.0 °F
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Humidity: 92%
Wind: 23.0 mph from the NW
Wind Gust: 29.0 mph
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