Winter Climate Prediction Center's forecast starting to refelct El Nino change

By: snowave , 12:03 AM GMT on November 17, 2012

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For the last several months, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has been predicting below average precipitation for the PACNW this winter.

However, the new CPC 3-month forecast (which comes out every month around the 15th).. has finally come around to calling for "equal chances" for precip... which means, there's no significant bias in any direction for precip (or temperatures, for that matter). 

Needless to say, I had my suspicions being that the last month has been very wet here.. however, my understanding is that the primary reason for this shift is the demise of the predicted El Nino. Sea Surface Temperatures  (SST's) have been steadily declining the last couple months, so a La Nada (nothing) is predicted now.

What we have discovered (and moreso the media)  in the last decade or so, is that El Nino (and other SST anomalies) aren't the only major influence on seasonal weather patterns. The North Atlantic and Pacific Oscillations (among many others) can have just as much, or even more of an effect on on seasonal weather patterns.

Unlike El Nino, which is primarily SST based,  the Oscillations are largely atmospheric anomalies... mostly differences in atmospheric pressure at sea level.  It'll be interesting to see what happens this winter with these phenomenon in play.

 



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8. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
5:09 AM GMT on November 21, 2012
snowave has created a new entry.
7. snowave
5:15 PM GMT on November 17, 2012

Quoting Accu35blog:
Great job looking foward to this winter weather

Thanks! Me too..  although I wouldn't mind a sunny day every now and again to reload my enthusiasm for the storms.

Member Since: November 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 7
6. snowave
5:14 PM GMT on November 17, 2012

Quoting williscook:
Wow, nicely written, we have a local meterologist who gives the same sort of interesting detail. He Includes surf specific information (of course). First time I've heard the term La Nada, hah

Thanks. Yeah, it is very interesting stuff with alot of different factors in play.
Member Since: November 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 7
5. snowave
5:12 PM GMT on November 17, 2012

Quoting oktobergirl:
so in non weather speak, this means you aren't getting much snow this year?


Not necessarily. They WERE predicting a good probability of less precip this winter, but not they're not so sure, and say it could go either way,
Member Since: November 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 7
4. williscook
3:55 PM GMT on November 17, 2012
Wow, nicely written, we have a local meterologist who gives the same sort of interesting detail. He Includes surf specific information (of course). First time I've heard the term La Nada, hah
Member Since: November 13, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2
3. oktobergirl
9:56 AM GMT on November 17, 2012
so in non weather speak, this means you aren't getting much snow this year?
Member Since: November 14, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4
1. Accu35blog
5:41 AM GMT on November 17, 2012
Great job looking foward to this winter weather
Member Since: October 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 21

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Snowave, his wife and 3 pups live along the East Slope of the Cascade Mtns of Central Washington, just outside the town of Plain, at 2000ft elevation.

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Targhee Towne
Alta, WY
Elevation: 6411 ft
Temperature: 59.7 °F
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Wind: 6.9 mph from the East
Wind Gust: 11.4 mph
Updated: 5:42 PM MDT on May 21, 2014

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