Snowave, his wife and 3 pups live along the East Slope of the Cascade Mtns of Central Washington, just outside the town of Plain, at 2000ft elevation.
By: snowave , 12:03 AM GMT on November 17, 2012
For the last several months, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has been predicting below average precipitation for the PACNW this winter.
However, the new CPC 3-month forecast (which comes out every month around the 15th).. has finally come around to calling for "equal chances" for precip... which means, there's no significant bias in any direction for precip (or temperatures, for that matter).
Needless to say, I had my suspicions being that the last month has been very wet here.. however, my understanding is that the primary reason for this shift is the demise of the predicted El Nino. Sea Surface Temperatures (SST's) have been steadily declining the last couple months, so a La Nada (nothing) is predicted now.
What we have discovered (and moreso the media) in the last decade or so, is that El Nino (and other SST anomalies) aren't the only major influence on seasonal weather patterns. The North Atlantic and Pacific Oscillations (among many others) can have just as much, or even more of an effect on on seasonal weather patterns.
Unlike El Nino, which is primarily SST based, the Oscillations are largely atmospheric anomalies... mostly differences in atmospheric pressure at sea level. It'll be interesting to see what happens this winter with these phenomenon in play.
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