South America Forecast Discussion

By: sasastorm , 9:53 PM GMT on October 24, 2012

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During the 2012-2013 summer in Soth America the main concerns in Argentina and around the world are linked to two parameters, temperature and precipitation.
As we know exists in the atmosphere a pattern of movement that is not isolated from what is happening in the ocean or land. These interactions are known as teleconnections and is nothing more than a mathematical representation of atmospheric and oceanic systems.
One such teleconnections directly affects the forecast long-term weather in South America and is known as ENSO (El Niño South Oscillation) forecasts predict a weak Niño phase or neutral phase for December-January-February

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is one measure of the large-scale fluctuations in air pressure occurring between the western and eastern tropical Pacific (i.e., the state of the Southern Oscillation) during El Niño and La Niña episodes. Traditionally, this index has been calculated based on the differences in air pressure anomaly between Tahiti and Darwin, Australia. In general, smoothed time series of the SOI correspond very well with changes in ocean temperatures across the eastern tropical Pacific. The negative phase of the SOI represents below-normal air pressure at Tahiti and above-normal air pressure at Darwin. Prolonged periods of negative SOI values coincide with abnormally warm ocean waters across the eastern tropical Pacific typical of El Niño episodes. Prolonged periods of positive SOI values coincide with abnormally cold ocean waters across the eastern tropical Pacific typical of La Niña episodes.



and SST



But this is not the only one to take into account that affects South America, the other is known as Maiden MDJ or Julian Oscillation. This last, very little known by the general public is a pattern in the atmosphere, which originates in the Indian Ocean and begins a long journey and throughout the South Pacific to lead. is a pattern that repeats every 45-60 days and causes rainfall contribution from the Pacific



so is we see the last map, we can forecast a very rainy end of January on Argentina coast. Finally wwe can make a Summer map to Argentina according to

Anomaly Temperature Maps Forecast



you can found more information and the summer maps on Link

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About sasastorm

Bachelor on science Atmosphere and Ocean. The EwsSat is a system to prevent people about the most several weather; specially on USA an Argentina.

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