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By: sandcrab39565 , 1:29 PM GMT on January 02, 2009

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MEMA director questions survey's accuracy
Posted: Aug 27, 2010 4:17 PM CDT
Updated: Aug 27, 2010 6:25 PM CDT

MEMA Director questions accuracy of PEW Katrina Poll
1:51

BILOXI, MS (WLOX) - The director of the Mississippi Emergency Management Agency (MEMA) questions the accuracy of a recent survey about hurricane preparedness. The Pew Research Center survey shows 57 percent of the country thinks the U.S. is no better prepared for a natural disaster today than we were before Hurricane Katrina.

"I am not sure the majority of people understand what has taken place since Katrina," Mike Womack told WLOX News.

Womack said much has been done to better prepare those who respond to major disasters. As an example, he points to Hurricane Gustav, which threatened New Orleans. He said the government essentially evacuated that city successfully and without incident.

Womack also pointed out that his agency and others, especially in this region of the country, are better funded than ever before.

"I am very proud of the fact, I think in the state of Mississippi, we have been effective in using the money provided by the federal government and the state legislature."

Womack is convinced, beyond a doubt, we will never see the kind of bungled respond we had in Katrina. But he does have a warning for people.

"Anytime you have a catastrophic event, by definition, catastrophic means you will overwhelm resources, you will overwhelm government at all levels. How good we are is how quickly we rebound."

There was one other thing Mike Womack wanted to emphasize during our interview. He said FEMA leaders are concerned that many Americans seem to think that big brother, our government, will do everything for everybody.

"We as a society need to get away from thinking, ‘I need to see what I can get out of the government.' We have to understand we are all part of society, part of the government and we should not take resources if we don't absolutely need them in an emergency situation."

Womack and FEMA's national director, Craig Fugate, are on the coast for the various Katrina memorials and events.

Copyright 2010 WLOX. All rights reserved.

My Response

– hubbub
The report is correct. Lessons learned were only partially used and many of the important issues were ignored. The fact that was stated that more money now is spent on preparedness does not reflect the local level. Funding was given to state and federal agencies and the primary lesson of disasters begin and end local has been woefully ignored. Local preparedness is the key but without funding it is impossible to achieve. The words of the local responders never reach the national press and therefore are never heard. Congress rarely hears the truth but rather what state leaders, Mayors and other elected officials bashfully tell them. Local words from the front lines are muted. I have seen and lived such and would stand in front of anybody and say it. Until local responders are heard a false statement of actual preparedness will always be shown.
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Hmm seems I am in the movie "Groundhog Day" lol
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1446. surfmom
yup, they are still there
last thing you guys need -
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Woke up and the lines are still there.
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Ok Ok now somebody has to quit drawing all the colored lines near my home on the map. Confiscate those colored pencils.lol
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1443. surfmom
Me too! just passing rain w/no name
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Another day with extreme heat index. A low forming possibly in the gulf later this week. I hope that the low only lowers temps an nothing more.
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1441. surfmom
Quoting sandcrab39565:
Going to be another hot day. Cannot go to the islands and enjoy the water unless you want to get oiled.


(((I AM SOOO SORRY & SAD)))
- I will not forget the plight of your shores and continue to pray for a true miracle of restoration -- not something BP feeds to MSMedia
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Hi SandCrab,
Just a shout out to you to provide support and encouragement!

I sure hope we can get this oil cleaned up in a timely manner.

Try to get some rest and have some fun this weekend; you deserve it!
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HIya Hero - sure miss talking to you.
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Going to be another hot day. Cannot go to the islands and enjoy the water unless you want to get oiled.
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Either it has to cool off or I gotta get a lawn mower with air conditioning.lol
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I hope everyone that lives in Hurricane prone areas have thier plans and kits complete. The time is here for the tropics to get lively.
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Oil spill ramping down and as usual no voice allowed from the local authorities. I suspect that we wont be allowed to be a part of the "after action review" either. This has been a mockary of the National Incident Management System and has very much severely lessened my respect for our Coast Guard command staff. It is being played down like all is well what a super show this is. The truth and facts I hope will eventually surface if not this will be a better kept secret than "Watergate"
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Hi Sandcrab,

Just checking in with your blog. I saw what you posted on Emmy's blog.

So glad you are there and doing what you can to keep the "ones in charge" aware that they are being watched.....not that it will matter; this bunch will do what they want to do no matter what.

anyway, so happy Bonnie has gone "poof" and maybe what little wind she has left will not cause too much more additional grief to this area.

You keep up the good fight for all of us!
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1433. surfmom
checking in w/a Good Morning 2 u

FROM Surfgodfather:
"This oil spill is bad. I have a friend from Australia that has worked for 25 years on ships for oil companies. Can't tell you his name, but, he told me stories on what they do. One was in the Indian Ocean where an oil spill happened and they used dispersants to hide the oil from view. All the companies do this. He was telling me that after the disaster all the life on the ocean floor was dead. That is what is happening in the gulf now. I don't know what the government or oil companies are doing. We just have to keep sending out info on the gusher to people. Hoping things will get better."
Thx Sandcrab! SurfGodfather is in PI soon to return stateside - he's part of my network getting the TRUTH out around the world.
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Sandcrab,

I just read what you have been thru and I feel your frustration. I am glad you are going to keep on fighting to get the truth out there and to try and get the local officials to wake up.

Good for you to now accept their BS.

We are so proud of you and happy you are out there fighting for the local communities.

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1431. surfmom
on on ON Sandcrab!!!

my son (in his small capacity) and several men he has worked with have left as well - (Bosses) they are moving on for similar reasons - infact, one counseled my son and told him to save his health and get out.

Keep me/us posted, perhaps we will be able to support you in some way.

I'm dropping some tears this morning... because as horrific as this disaster is... knowing & seeing real time how broken the system is just compounds the horror, especially when someone like you throws up there hands in total frustration. :**(

I think we are losing our minds

Sandcrab
- I applaud your efforts & am I thankful for your TRUTHS
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Reporting from Lafayette, La., and Los Angeles — The threat of summer storms moving through the Gulf of Mexico this week has raised the possibility that BP's recently shuttered well may have to be reopened as a safety precaution if work crews are forced to head for safe harbor.
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Weather poses latest challenge to gulf oil spill response‎
BP Oil Disaster Government Investigation
Who is going to investigate the Government?
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Day 93 of the spill BUT Day 1 of my fight for the truth and reality.
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Well friends I am done. BP nor the Coast Guard care if local has input or not. They have played a good game but I must admit defeat. Some of the local elected officials do not understand or care that we are required to respond under the National Incident Management System. BP and the Coast Guard do not understand the Unified Command System at all. I was told today by the Incident Commander that he would FIND a place for me in the planning section and I went off on him. How dare you come to my home area and act like you will allow me to fit in when my creditials exceed yours 3 fold. I will now turn my focus to congressional delegates and will work diligently to make sure that the lessons learned will be heard from the local level and not buried in the BS of the misleading spew of trash being publicly announced. Its my dirt my home and it has been trashed without allowance of local input to protect or clean it. Time is now to change my operating status and turn to making the truth be known. I have played in the system and the system is broke.
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1426. surfmom
GoodMorning Sandcrab - stopping by to express my thanks and gratitude for all the work you are doing..... and leaving you (((HUGS))) and a tune~ thanks for caring about THE PEOPLE
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Hello all.
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Another day listening to the BS spewed with countless phone comms. and dog and pony shows.
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Hello Sandcrab,

I know you have been so busy during all this mess. Please stay strong and keep up the good work for us all.

Try to take a break this weekend and have some fun.



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1422. surfmom
sooooo GLAD to see you surface -- was worried you got OILED!!!

My kid went out and worked for a month as a Dive/Emt -won't go back, too toxic among other things.

Hope you are okay & pacing yourself ....
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Well we continue to be lucky that the oil has stayed offshore more than on. If this had hit us imediately the Unified Command in Mobile,AL would have failed. The voice of the local EMA still has no echo. This leads me to believe Presidential Directives have no teeth nor do thaey apply to themselves.
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This is all so sad... thank you for posting this. I'm going to copy & post in my blog.
Quoting sandcrab39565:
Met with a geologist and biologist today and the future looks bleek. The local Gulf Coast Reasearch Lab has found oil droblets in the blue crab eggs. The food chain contamination is in the beginning stages and noone knows what the future impacts will be. The only good news is that the marshes may heal in 2-3 years in corrective actions are taken but the food chain issue may well be completed by then so long range impacts are unknown.
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Met with a geologist and biologist today and the future looks bleek. The local Gulf Coast Reasearch Lab has found oil droblets in the blue crab eggs. The food chain contamination is in the beginning stages and noone knows what the future impacts will be. The only good news is that the marshes may heal in 2-3 years in corrective actions are taken but the food chain issue may well be completed by then so long range impacts are unknown.
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Confusion is still prevailing in the response to oil being cleaned up. There is more stalling than FEMA this has gotten out of control. There needs to be a house cleaning in all branches of this response.
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1417. Patrap
Oil vey...
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img src="Photobucket" alt="" />
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img src="Photobucket" alt="" />
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Unified Command has outgrown its ability to fight the oil in the gulf. It is time to go to area commands and get control of the assets available and better co-ordinate and manage the assets at hand. The Unified Command has become too burdened with the role of management to actually manage. It has grown too large to react in the timely fashion needed to respond to the situations at hand. Area command with multiple incident commands must be established quickly if we are to make the fight on the water. Area specific decision making teams must be established to expedite the response time to capture the bulk oil patches before they reach shore. The time for politics and public affairs is passed it’s time for action! Decisions cannot wait for 12 hour periods any longer the time is not there the threat is upon us. If we are to save the pristine marshes and fragile shorelines we must be flexible in the response. The time has passed for the PHD’s and environmental consultants it is now the time of the willing and strong backs. Politics now MUST take a backseat to response! Let the local efforts begin with the local knowledge. The plans were made but were failed to be followed. Big brother get out of the way and support the local decision makers with the assets at hand. We can and will respond in a co-ordinated way it is our yard we can get the job done. Quit giving away money and let us step in and do the job. Red tape and politics is now an obstacle itself. Time for talk has passed you cannot talk the oil into a skimmer or drum!
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Quoting sandcrab39565:
Another disapointing day with the oil saga. Flew the barrier islands off our coast today saw oil and sheen scattered through out the whole area. The VOO (Vessels of opertunity) doing very little but watching the oil slowly drift toward the main shore. It will not be long before the mainland will be impacted. This is sad to watch and even sadder is the fact that all you do and say seems to fall on deaf ears. Very poor management and less oversight. The task is doable but it also has to be managed.



I think I can understand some of your frustration...
I am in the "corporate" world and talk about
"falling on deaf ears" it happens a lot...
"uppers" make decisions without any understanding on what their decisions will cost others......
but in your situation, much more is at stake.

Keep up the good work and the good fight.
We are in your corner.

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Another disapointing day with the oil saga. Flew the barrier islands off our coast today saw oil and sheen scattered through out the whole area. The VOO (Vessels of opertunity) doing very little but watching the oil slowly drift toward the main shore. It will not be long before the mainland will be impacted. This is sad to watch and even sadder is the fact that all you do and say seems to fall on deaf ears. Very poor management and less oversight. The task is doable but it also has to be managed.
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Link
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Sandcrab,
glad you are home and can get some rest for the weekend.. well I hope you can..
I think between the oil and the storm you are going to have your hands full next week.

Things are a mess out there all way around.

Take care of yourself and thank you for doing what you do.


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Link

Congressional Testimony
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Day 64 I am seeing issues starting to now arise concerning the riembursement process. Big brother is getting involved more and more and although this is NOT a "Stafford Act" disaster I fear it soon will be treated as such will add many more layers to the process required to recover the costs to local government and individuals. They think they know best but in the real world they are experts at causing backrupcy.
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1404. surfmom
"The biggest problem may not be the crude but the effects of such. Alge blooms seem to be larger and more frequent than in most summers and due to the clouding of the water may very well creating this problem. The truth of the matter may be that the alge and possibly the dispersements are causing this increase which depletes the oxygen in the water this may be worse than the oil. The side effects my actually be worse than the crude!" Sandcrab

Indeed Sandcrab - this is a trainwreck in progressing in slo-motion. I agree 100% with your thought and observations - and have been saying - the oil globs on the beach are the least of the problems - the natural chemical balance (PH Acid/Alkaline),ample oxygen in the WATER & whether she can handle this assault is the question.
I'm not feeling good about the answers.

Thank you for your post and observations - many of us appreciate this information.
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Day 63 and the trajectory is looking very bleek for later this week. The SE winds are setting back in which means we will get covered. The IAP (Incident Action Plan) is so full of BS and no one seems to know who, what, or how much is available to recover the vast amount of crude that lies to our south. Locals as a whole have been ignored, pampered when needed but not allowed to interject into the planning process. Plans that are being made have not been shared (if they have any. BP is not the true felon here I blame the administration for being bought and failing to perform the job we have paid them for. History also has raised its head in 1979 when the vast spill occurred it was Senco then but today Transocean so the same company has now managed to fowl 80% of the gulf in 31 years. The government not BP also dictates were they can drill so perhaps both BP and the government should have been required to have a plan but none the less either seemed to have one. Too many years of government officials being bought and looking the other way so if blame is to occur I blame the government. They miserably failed to protect our shores, rights, and freedom to have the best enviornment that we all deserve.

The biggest problem may not be the crude but the effects of such. Alge blooms seem to be larger and more frequent than in most summers and due to the clouding of the water may very well creating this problem. The truth of the matter may be that the alge and possibly the dispersements are causing this increase which depletes the oxygen in the water this may be worse than the oil. The side effects my actually be worse than the crude!
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1402. Patrap
Thursday, June 17, 2010
Oil Drum: Unattributed doomsday scenario for Deepwater Horizon Gulf of Mexico environmental disaster
Oil Drum: Unattributed doomsday scenario for Deepwater Horizon Gulf of Mexico environmental disaster

From the Oil Drum

Link: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6593

[-] dougr on June 13, 2010 - 3:17 a.m.
Editors' note for first-time visitors: What follows is a comment from a The Oil Drum reader. To read what The Oil Drum staff members are saying about the Deepwater Horizon Spill, please visit the front page. (Were the US government and BP more forthcoming with information and details, the situation would not be giving rise to so much speculation about what is actually going on in the Gulf. This should be run more like Mission Control at NASA than an exclusive country club function--it is a public matter--transparency, now!)
OK let's get real about the GOM oil flow. There doesn't really seem to be much info on TOD that furthers more complete understanding of what's really happening in the GOM.

As you have probably seen and maybe feel yourselves, there are several things that do not appear to make sense regarding the actions of attack against the well. Don't feel bad, there is much that doesn't make sense even to professionals unless you take into account some important variables that we are not being told about. There seems to me to be a reluctance to face what cannot be termed anything less than grim circumstances in my opinion. There certainly is a reluctance to inform us regular people and all we have really gotten is a few dots here and there...

First of all...set aside all your thoughts of plugging the well and stopping it from blowing out oil using any method from the top down. Plugs, big valves to just shut it off, pinching the pipe closed, installing a new bop or lmrp, shooting any epoxy in it, top kills with mud etc etc etc....forget that, it won't be happening..it's done and over. In fact actually opening up the well at the subsea source and allowing it to gush more is not only exactly what has happened, it was probably necessary, or so they think anyway.

So you have to ask WHY? Why make it worse?...there really can only be one answer and that answer does not bode well for all of us. It's really an inescapable conclusion at this point, unless you want to believe that every Oil and Gas professional involved suddenly just forgot everything they know or woke up one morning and drank a few big cups of stupid and got assigned to directing the response to this catastrophe. Nothing makes sense unless you take this into account, but after you do...you will see the "sense" behind what has happened and what is happening. That conclusion is this:

The well bore structure is compromised "Down hole".

That is something which is a "Worst nightmare" conclusion to reach. While many have been saying this for some time as with any complex disaster of this proportion many have "said" a lot of things with no real sound reasons or evidence for jumping to such conclusions, well this time it appears that they may have jumped into the right place...

TOP KILL - FAILS:

This was probably our best and only chance to kill this well from the top down. This "kill mud" is a tried and true method of killing wells and usually has a very good chance of success. The depth of this well presented some logistical challenges, but it really should not of presented any functional obstructions. The pumping capacity was there and it would have worked, should have worked, but it didn't.

It didn't work, but it did create evidence of what is really happening. First of all the method used in this particular top kill made no sense, did not follow the standard operating procedure used to kill many other wells and in fact for the most part was completely contrary to the procedure which would have given it any real chance of working.

When a well is "Killed" using this method heavy drill fluid "Mud" is pumped at high volume and pressure into a leaking well. The leaks are "behind" the point of access where the mud is fired in, in this case the "choke and Kill lines" which are at the very bottom of the BOP (Blow Out Preventer) The heavy fluid gathers in the "behind" portion of the leaking well assembly, while some will leak out, it very quickly overtakes the flow of oil and only the heavier mud will leak out. Once that "solid" flow of mud is established at the leak "behind" the well, the mud pumps increase pressure and begin to overtake the pressure of the oil deposit. The mud is established in a solid column that is driven downward by the now stronger pumps. The heavy mud will create a solid column that is so heavy that the oil deposit can no longer push it up, shut off the pumps...the well is killed...it can no longer flow.

Usually this will happen fairly quickly, in fact for it to work at all...it must happen quickly. There is no "trickle some mud in" because that is not how a top kill works. The flowing oil will just flush out the trickle and a solid column will never be established. Yet what we were told was "It will take days to know whether it
worked"...."Top kill might take 48 hours to complete"...the only way it could take days is if BP intended to do some "test fires" to test integrity of the entire system. The actual "kill" can only take hours by nature because it must happen fairly rapidly. It also increases strain on the "behind" portion and in this instance we all know that what remained was fragile at best.

Early that afternoon we saw a massive flow burst out of the riser "plume" area. This was the first test fire of high pressure mud injection. Later on same day we saw a greatly increased flow out of the kink leaks, this was mostly mud at that time as the kill mud is tanish color due to the high amount of Barite which is added to it to weight it and Barite is a white powder.

We later learned the pumping was shut down at midnight, we weren't told about that until almost 16 hours later, but by then...I'm sure BP had learned the worst. The mud they were pumping in was not only leaking out the "behind" leaks...it was leaking out of someplace forward...and since they were not even near being able to pump mud into the deposit itself, because the well would be dead long before...and the oil was still coming up, there could only be one conclusion...the wells casings were ruptured and it was leaking "down hole"

They tried the "Junk shot"...the "bridging materials" which also failed and likely made things worse in regards to the ruptured well casings.

"Despite successfully pumping a total of over 30,000 barrels of heavy mud, in three attempts at rates of up to
80 barrels a minute, and deploying a wide range of different bridging materials, the operation did not overcome the flow from the well."

http://www.bp.com/genericarticle.do?categoryId=2012968&contentId=7062487

80 Barrels per minute is over 200,000 gallons per hour, over 115,000 barrels per day...did we seen an increase over and above what was already leaking out of 115k bpd?....we did not...it would have been a massive increase in order of multiples and this did not happen.

"The whole purpose is to get the kill mud down,” said Wells. “We'll have 50,000 barrels of mud on hand to kill this well. It's far more than necessary, but we always like to have backup."

Try finding THAT quote around...it's been scrubbed...here's a cached copy of a quote...

http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:WDj-HORTmIoJ:www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/busi ness/deepwaterhorizon/7006870.html+%E2%809CThe+whole+purpose+is+to+get+the+kill+mud+down,%E2%80%9D+s aid+Wells.+%E2%80%9CWe'll+have+50,000+barrels+of+mud+on+hand+to+kill+this+well.+It's+far+more+than+n ecessary,+but+we+always+like+to+have+backup.%E2%80%9D&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us

"The "top kill" effort, launched Wednesday afternoon by industry and government engineers, had pumped enough drilling fluid to block oil and gas spewing from the well, Allen said. The pressure from the well was very low, he said, but persisting."

"Allen said one ship that was pumping fluid into the well had run out of the fluid, or "mud," and that a second ship was on the way. He said he was encouraged by the progress."

http://www.houmatoday.com/article/20100527/ARTICLES/100529348

Later we found out that Allen had no idea what was really going on and had been "Unavailable all day"

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2010/05/27/interview_with_coas...

So what we had was BP running out of 50,000 barrels of mud in a very short period of time. An amount far and above what they deemed necessary to kill the well. Shutting down pumping 16 hours before telling anyone, including the president. We were never really given a clear reason why "Top Kill" failed, just that it couldn't overcome the well.

There is only one article anywhere that says anything else about it at this time of writing...and it's a relatively obscure article from the wall street journal "online" citing an unnamed source.

"WASHINGTON—BP PLC has concluded that its "top-kill" attempt last week to seal its broken well in the Gulf of Mexico may have failed due to a malfunctioning disk inside the well about 1,000 feet below the ocean floor.

The disk, part of the subsea safety infrastructure, may have ruptured during the surge of oil and gas up the well on April 20 that led to the explosion aboard the Deepwater Horizon rig, BP officials said. The rig sank two days later, triggering a leak that has since become the worst in U.S. history.

The broken disk may have prevented the heavy drilling mud injected into the well last week from getting far enough down the well to overcome the pressure from the escaping oil and gas, people familiar with BP's findings said. They said much of the drilling mud may also have escaped from the well into the rock formation outside the wellbore.

As a result, BP wasn't able to get sufficient pressure to keep the oil and gas at bay. If they had been able to build up sufficient pressure, the company had hoped to pump in cement and seal off the well. The effort was deemed a failure on Saturday.

BP started the top-kill effort Wednesday afternoon, shooting heavy drilling fluids into the broken valve known as a blowout preventer. The mud was driven by a 30,000 horsepower pump installed on a ship at the surface. But it was clear from the start that a lot of the "kill mud" was leaking out instead of going down into the well."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405274870487560457528013357716426...

There are some inconsistencies with this article.

There are no "Disks" or "Subsea safety structure" 1,000 feet below the sea floor, all that is there is well bore. There is nothing that can allow the mud or oil to "escape" into the rock formation outside the well bore except the well, because it is the only thing there.

All the actions and few tid bits of information all lead to one inescapable conclusion. The well pipes below the sea floor are broken and leaking. Now you have some real data of how BP's actions are evidence of that, as well as some murky statement from "BP officials" confirming the same.

I took some time to go into a bit of detail concerning the failure of Top Kill because this was a significant event. To those of us outside the real inside loop, yet still fairly knowledgeable, it was a major confirmation of what many feared. That the system below the sea floor has serious failures of varying magnitude in the complicated chain, and it is breaking down and it will continue to.

What does this mean?

It means they will never cap the gusher after the wellhead. They cannot...the more they try and restrict the oil gushing out the bop?...the more it will transfer to the leaks below. Just like a leaky garden hose with a nozzle on it. When you open up the nozzle?...it doesn't leak so bad, you close the nozzle?...it leaks real bad,
same dynamics. It is why they sawed the riser off...or tried to anyway...but they clipped it off, to relieve pressure on the leaks "down hole". I'm sure there was a bit of panic time after they crimp/pinched off the large riser pipe and the Diamond wire saw got stuck and failed...because that crimp diverted pressure and flow to the rupture down below.

Contrary to what most of us would think as logical to stop the oil mess, actually opening up the gushing well and making it gush more became direction BP took after confirming that there was a leak. In fact if you note their actions, that should become clear. They have shifted from stopping or restricting the gusher to opening it up and catching it. This only makes sense if they want to relieve pressure at the leak hidden down below the seabed.....and that sort of leak is one of the most dangerous and potentially damaging kind of leak there could be. It is also inaccessible which compounds our problems. There is no way to stop that leak from above, all they can do is relieve the pressure on it and the only way to do that right now is to open up the nozzle above and gush more oil into the gulf and hopefully catch it, which they have done, they just neglected to tell us why, gee thanks.

A down hole leak is dangerous and damaging for several reasons.

There will be erosion throughout the entire beat up, beat on and beat down remainder of the "system" including that inaccessible leak. The same erosion I spoke about in the first post is still present and has never stopped, cannot be stopped, is impossible to stop and will always be present in and acting on anything that is left which has crude oil "Product" rushing through it. There are abrasives still present, swirling flow will create hot spots of wear and this erosion is relentless and will always be present until eventually it wears away enough material to break it's way out. It will slowly eat the bop away especially at the now pinched off riser head and it will flow more and more. Perhaps BP can outrun or keep up with that out flow with various suckage methods for a period of time, but eventually the well will win that race, just how long that race will be?...no one really knows....However now?...there are other problems that a down hole leak will and must produce that will compound this already bad situation.

This down hole leak will undermine the foundation of the seabed in and around the well area. It also weakens the only thing holding up the massive Blow Out Preventer's immense bulk of 450 tons. In fact?...we are beginning to the results of the well's total integrity beginning to fail due to the undermining being caused by the leaking well bore.

The first layer of the sea floor in the gulf is mostly lose material of sand and silt. It doesn't hold up anything and isn't meant to, what holds the entire subsea system of the Bop in place is the well itself. The very large steel connectors of the initial well head "spud" stabbed in to the sea floor. The Bop literally sits on top of the pipe and never touches the sea bed, it wouldn't do anything in way of support if it did. After several tens of feet the seabed does begin to support the well connection laterally (side to side) you couldn't put a 450 ton piece of machinery on top of a 100' tall pipe "in the air" and subject it to the side loads caused by the ocean currents and expect it not to bend over...unless that pipe was very much larger than the machine itself, which you all can see it is not. The well's piping in comparison is actually very much smaller than the Blow Out Preventer and strong as it may be, it relies on some support from the seabed to function and not literally fall over...and it is now showing signs of doing just that....falling over.

If you have been watching the live feed cams you may have noticed that some of the ROVs are using an inclinometer...and inclinometer is an instrument that measures "Incline" or tilt. The BOP is not supposed to be tilting...and after the riser clip off operation it has begun to...

This is not the only problem that occurs due to erosion of the outer area of the well casings. The way a well casing assembly functions it that it is an assembly of different sized "tubes" that decrease in size as they go down. These tubes have a connection to each other that is not unlike a click or snap together locking action. After a certain length is assembled they are cemented around the ouside to the earth that the more rough drill hole is bored through in the well making process. A very well put together and simply explained process of "How to drill a deep water oil well" is available here:

http://www.treesfullofmoney.com/?p=1610

The well bore casings rely on the support that is created by the cementing phase of well construction. Just like if you have many hands holding a pipe up you could put some weight on the top and the many hands could hold the pipe and the weight on top easily...but if there were no hands gripping and holding the pipe?...all the weight must be held up by the pipe alone. The series of connections between the sections of casings are not designed to hold up the immense weight of the BOP without all the "hands" that the cementing provides and they will eventually buckle and fail when stressed beyond their design limits.

These are clear and present dangers to the battered subsea safety structure (bop and lmrp) which is the only loose cork on this well we have left. The immediate (first 1,000 feet) of well structure that remains is now also undoubtedly compromised. However.....as bad as that is?...it is far from the only possible problems with this very problematic well. There were ongoing troubles with the entire process during the drilling of this well.

There were also many comprises made by BP IMO which may have resulted in an overall weakened structure of the entire well system all the way to the bottom plug which is over 12,000 feet deep. Problems with the cementing procedure which was done by Haliburton and was deemed as “was against our best practices.” by a Haliburton employee on April 1st weeks before the well blew out. There is much more and I won't go into detail right now concerning the lower end of the well and the troubles encountered during the whole creation of this well and earlier "Well control" situations that were revieled in various internal BP e-mails. I will add several links to those documents and quotes from them below and for now, address the issues concerning the upper portion of the well and the region of the sea floor.

What is likely to happen now?

Well...none of what is likely to happen is good, in fact...it's about as bad as it gets. I am convinced the erosion and compromising of the entire system is accelerating and attacking more key structural areas of the well, the blow out preventer and surrounding strata holding it all up and together. This is evidenced by the tilt of the blow out preventer and the erosion which has exposed the well head connection. What eventually will happen is that the blow out preventer will literally tip over if they do not run supports to it as the currents push on it. I suspect they will run those supports as cables tied to anchors very soon, if they don't, they are inviting disaster that much sooner.

Eventually even that will be futile as the well casings cannot support the weight of the massive system above with out the cement bond to the earth and that bond is being eroded away. When enough is eroded away the casings will buckle and the BOP will collapse the well. If and when you begin to see oil and gas coming up around the well area from under the BOP? or the area around the well head connection and casing sinking more and more rapidly? ...it won't be too long after that the entire system fails. BP must be aware of this, they are mapping the sea floor sonically and that is not a mere exercise. Our Gov't must be well aware too, they just are not telling us.

All of these things lead to only one place, a fully wide open well bore directly to the oil deposit...after that, it goes into the realm of "the worst things you can think of" The well may come completely apart as the inner liners fail. There is still a very long drill string in the well, that could literally come flying out...as I said...all the worst things you can think of are a possibility, but the very least damaging outcome as bad as it is, is that we are stuck with a wide open gusher blowing out 150,000 barrels a day of raw oil or more. There isn't any "cap dome" or any other suck fixer device on earth that exists or could be built that will stop it from gushing out and doing more and more damage to the gulf. While at the same time also doing more damage to the well, making the chance of halting it with a kill from the bottom up less and less likely to work, which as it stands now?....is the only real chance we have left to stop it all.

It's a race now...a race to drill the relief wells and take our last chance at killing this monster before the whole weakened, wore out, blown out, leaking and failing system gives up it's last gasp in a horrific crescendo.

We are not even 2 months into it, barely half way by even optimistic estimates. The damage done by the leaked oil now is virtually immeasurable already and it will not get better, it can only get worse. No matter how much they can collect, there will still be thousands and thousands of gallons leaking out every minute, every hour of every day. We have 2 months left before the relief wells are even near in position and set up to take a kill shot and that is being optimistic as I said.

Over the next 2 months the mechanical situation also cannot improve, it can only get worse, getting better is an impossibility. While they may make some gains on collecting the leaked oil, the structural situation cannot heal itself. It will continue to erode and flow out more oil and eventually the inevitable collapse which cannot be stopped will happen. It is only a simple matter of who can "get there first"...us or the well.

We can only hope the race against that eventuality is one we can win, but my assessment I am sad to say is that we will not.

The system will collapse or fail substantially before we reach the finish line ahead of the well and the worst is yet to come.

Sorry to bring you that news, I know it is grim, but that is the way I see it....I sincerely hope I am wrong.

We need to prepare for the possibility of this blow out sending more oil into the gulf per week then what we already have now, because that is what a collapse of the system will cause. All the collection efforts that have captured oil will be erased in short order. The magnitude of this disaster will increase exponentially by the time we can do anything to halt it and our odds of actually even being able to halt it will go down.

The magnitude and impact of this disaster will eclipse anything we have known in our life times if the worst or even near worst happens...

We are seeing the puny forces of man vs the awesome forces of nature.

We are going to need some luck and a lot of effort to win... and if nature decides we ought to lose, we will....

Reference materials:
On April 1, 2010, a job log written by a Halliburton employee, Marvin Volek, warns that BP’s use of cement “was against our best practices.”

An April 18 internal Halliburton memorandum indicates that Halliburton again warned BP about its practices,
this time saying that a “severe” gas flow problem would occur if the casings were not centered more carefully.

Around that same time, a BP document shows, company officials chose a type of casing with a greater risk of
collapsing.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/06/us/06rig.html?pagewanted=1&sq=at_issue...

Mark Hafle, the BP drilling engineer who wrote plans for well casings and cement seals on the Deepwater
Horizon's well, testified that the well had lost thousands of barrels of mud at the bottom. But he said models
run onshore showed alterations to the cement program would resolve the issues, and when asked if a cement
failure allowed the well to "flow" gas and oil, he wouldn't capitulate.

Hafle said he made several changes to casing designs in the last few days before the well blew, including the
addition of the two casing liners that weren't part of the original well design because of problems where the
earthen sides of the well were "ballooning." He also worked with Halliburton engineers to design a plan for
sealing the well casings with cement.

http://www.nola.com/news/gulf-oil-spill/index.ssf/2010/05/hearings_bp_ce...

graphic of fail: http://media.nola.com/news_impact/other/oil-cause-050710.pdf

Casing joint: http://www.glossary.oilfield.slb.com/files/OGL00001.gif

Casing: http://www.glossary.oilfield.slb.com/files/OGL00003.gif

Kill may take until Christmas: http://preview.bloomberg.com/news/2010-06-02/bp-gulf-of-mexico-oil-leak-...

BP Used Riskier Method to Seal Well Before Blast: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/27/us/27rig.html

BP memo test results: http://energycommerce.house.gov/Press_111/20100512/Internal.BP.Email.Reg...

Investigation results: The information from BP identifies several new warning signs of problems. According to BP there were three flow indicators from the well before the explosion.

http://energycommerce.house.gov/documents/20100525/Memo.BP.Internal.Inve...

BP, what we know: http://energycommerce.house.gov/documents/20100512/BP-What.We.Know.pdf

What could have happened:
1. Before or during the cement job, an influx of hydrocarbon enters the wellbore.
2. Influx is circulated during cement job to wellhead and BOP.
3. 9-7/8” casing hanger packoff set and positively tested to 6500 psi.
4. After 16.5 hours waiting on cement, a negative test performed on wellbore below BOP. (~ 1400 psi differential pressure on 9-7/8” casing hanger packoff and ~ 2350 psi on double valve float collar)
5. Packoff leaks allowing hydrocarbon to enter wellbore below BOP. 1400 psi shut in pressure observed on drill pipe (no flow or pressure observed on kill line)
6. Hydrocarbon below BOP is unknowingly circulated to surface while finishing displacing the riser.
7. As hydrocarbon rises to surface, gas break out of solution further reduces hydrostatic pressure in well. Well begin to flow, BOPs and Emergency Disconnect System (EDS) activated but failed.
8. Packoff continues to leak allowing further influx from bottom.

Confidential: http://energycommerce.house.gov/documents/20100512/BP-What.Could.Have.Ha...

T/A daily log 4-20: http://energycommerce.house.gov/documents/20100512/TRO-Daily.Drilling.Re...

Cement plug 12,150 ft SCMT logging tool SCMT (Slim Cement Mapping Tool) Schlumberger Partial CBL done. http://energycommerce.house.gov/documents/20100530/BP-HZN-CEC018441.pdf

Schlum CBL tools: http://www.slb.com/~/media/Files/production/product_sheets/well_integrit...

Major concerns, well control, bop test.
http://energycommerce.house.gov/documents/20100530/BP-HZN-CEC018375.pdf

Energy & commerce links to docs.
http://energycommerce.house.gov/index.php?option=com_content&view=articl...

Well head on sea floor:
http://nca-group.com/bilder//Trolla/A.%20GVI%20of%20Trolla%20prior%20to%20WHP002%20(2).jpg

Well head on deck of ship: http://nca-group.com/bilder//Trolla/DSC_0189.JPG

BP's youtube propoganda page, a lot of rarely seen vids here....FWIW:
http://www.youtube.com/user/DeepwaterHorizonJIC
http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message1097505/pg1
Posted by Tenney Naumer at 4:12 PM
Labels: Deepwater Horizon
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
sand - of the few people on here, I trust and believe you the most.You are there in the trenches, NIMS and truly emergency prepared.

The NWS Boys came back with horrific stories of La - the death of a culture and our fear of a cane hitting the coast - we can NOT sustain that economically....

I said IN THE BEGINNING I learned two lessons
1) You cant depend on the government
2) You can't depend on organizations

Its every person helping each other now
total local level - and in the end, we will
sort it all out.

I am grateful though Cheney isn't in charge
that administration turned the MMagency
into a whorehouse.
my own bright spot I always go back too :-)
Thanks for your work, dear friend.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1400. GetReal
Thank you, thank you, thank you for valuable rant!!! I'm glad to find another here at the WU that shares the same feeling about the way the current admin has handled (or has not handled) the containment and clean up of the spill...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1399. surfmom
Quoting sandcrab39565:
61 days of working the issue and I have found that the FEMA response is by far better. The federal governmet is lost with trying to handle such an event. NIMS is not fully implemented as written but they seem to think it is the problem is as usual they think they can throw money and people to it and its fixed. Our elected officials in the higher anarchy are lost and wasting time and money. The Coast Guard is a valuable and vital aspect in most emergencies but fail to understand the importance of playing and sharing with others. 61 days and at my level the powers to be still are having turff wars. We might have thought FEMA was messed up but what I am witnessing is they are better than the present response. Could go on and on but the dog has been whipped until I am worn out.This is a true disaster within the diaster and regardless of what the president has done he is still clueless. The presidents administration is definately showing its lack of ability to understand the situation. As in the economic isuues the same princible is being applied just throw money at it fortunately at this time its BP's money but at the present rate our government will bankrupt them and guess whos money will be next. We must try to change the present course if we are to fight this spill without getting into all our taxpayers pockets. What is being done in 4 years will cost us the rest of our lives.


quite a read Crab~
thx for the heads up
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
61 days of working the issue and I have found that the FEMA response is by far better. The federal governmet is lost with trying to handle such an event. NIMS is not fully implemented as written but they seem to think it is the problem is as usual they think they can throw money and people to it and its fixed. Our elected officials in the higher anarchy are lost and wasting time and money. The Coast Guard is a valuable and vital aspect in most emergencies but fail to understand the importance of playing and sharing with others. 61 days and at my level the powers to be still are having turff wars. We might have thought FEMA was messed up but what I am witnessing is they are better than the present response. Could go on and on but the dog has been whipped until I am worn out.This is a true disaster within the diaster and regardless of what the president has done he is still clueless. The presidents administration is definately showing its lack of ability to understand the situation. As in the economic isuues the same princible is being applied just throw money at it fortunately at this time its BP's money but at the present rate our government will bankrupt them and guess whos money will be next. We must try to change the present course if we are to fight this spill without getting into all our taxpayers pockets. What is being done in 4 years will cost us the rest of our lives.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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