The Northern Edge 49° 59

First Provincial Flood Forecast

By: plapman, 11:04 PM GMT on February 28, 2014

The first provincial flood forecast of the year is cautiously optimistic. Infrastructure and Transportation Minister Steve Ashton says the preliminary outlook suggests, without additional significant precipitation between now and the spring thaw, the potential for flooding is below or near normal in most areas. He says this is mainly due to near-normal soil moisture content at freeze-up and near-normal water content in the snowpack.

Two areas of concern the province is looking out for are parts of the Souris River basin and regions surrounding The Pas that have an above-average flood potential as the soil moisture content levels at freeze-up varied from above to wellabove normal and the snowpack water content is above to well-above normal, with levels up to 170 percent of normal.

Steve Topping, Executive Director of MIT says icebreakers will focus on the Red, Assiniboine, Icelandic and Fisher rivers, as well as the Portage Diversion. As for the operation of the diversion, he says its will be operational though he is still unsure as to how early in the spring it may happen.

"It's very likely it will be used this year, given the normal and adverse weather scenarios. The Portage Diversion is key in managing ice on the lower Assiniboine between Portage and Winnipeg and normally, its' initial operation has to do with that."


Additional highlights from the flood forecast include:

Rivers

* On major rivers, including the Red and Souris rivers, flows are generally normal or near normal for this time of year.

* Assiniboine River flows are slightly above normal for this time of year due to releases from the Shellmouth Reservoir, which increases its capacity to manage spring run-off.

* Major Interlake rivers, including the Waterhen and Fairford rivers, are above normal due to the consistently high water level of Lake Winnipegosis.


Lakes

Lake Manitoba

* Lake Manitoba's current level is 247.4 meters (811.8 feet), slightly above normal for this time of year but within the operating range of 247 m (810.5 ft.) to 247.7 m (812.5 ft.).

Lake Winnipeg

* Lake Winnipeg's current level is 217.6 m (713.8 ft.), slightly above normal for this time of year.

Lake Winnipegosis

* Lake Winnipegosis is currently at 253.8 m (832.7 ft.), 0.6 m (two feet) above normal for this time of year.



Flood Preparation

The Amphibex icebreakers and ice cutters will be focusing this year's ice-jam-mitigation program on the north Red, Assiniboine, Icelandic, Brokenhead and Fisher rivers, as well as the Portage Diversion, to reduce the potential of ice jams. The Amphibex fleet has already broken a six-kilometre channel down the centre of the Red River and 12 km of ice has been cut.

The chances of minor localized flooding due to snow blockages in drains, ditches and small streams during the early part of the run-off period will be dependent on the nature of the spring breakup and rate of melt.

Government Press Release Taken from Portageonline.com

Updated: 7:14 PM GMT on March 28, 2014

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The Never Ending Winter On The Prairie

By: plapman, 5:58 PM GMT on February 26, 2014

Alerts for: Portage la Prairie - Headingley - Brunkild - Carman

Extreme wind chill values developing this afternoon and evening.

An Arctic cold front pushing south across Southern Manitoba will bring strong northerly winds and another blast of cold temperatures into the region today into tonight. The front is expected to move quickly southward across the area bringing falling temperatures in its wake. The gusty north winds will produce areas of blowing and drifting snow with near zero visibility at times particularly in the Red River Valley and near the Manitoba lakes. The strongest winds are expected to occur along and behind the frontal passage with wind gusts to 70 or 80 km/h possible. Motorists should be prepared for sudden reductions in visibility on area roadways as visibilities may drop from good to near zero within a few minutes.

By late afternoon into this evening wind chill values over many areas are expected to drop to the minus 40 mark. At these extreme wind chill values frostbite on exposed skin may occur in less than 10 minutes.

Winds are expected to diminish tonight as an Arctic ridge of high pressure builds into the area dropping overnight lows into the minus thirties with wind chill values in the minus forties.
Blowing snow warning for
Portage la Prairie - Headingley - Brunkild - Carman continued

Blowing snow with local whiteouts at times today.

An Arctic cold front pushing south across Southern Manitoba will bring strong northerly winds and another blast of cold temperatures into the region today into tonight. The front is expected to move quickly southward across the area bringing falling temperatures in its wake. The gusty north winds will produce areas of blowing and drifting snow with near zero visibility at times particularly in the Red River Valley and near the Manitoba lakes. The strongest winds are expected to occur along and behind the frontal passage with wind gusts to 70 or 80 km/h possible. Motorists should be prepared for sudden reductions in visibility on area roadways as visibilities may drop from good to near zero within a few minutes.

By late afternoon into this evening wind chill values over many areas are expected to drop to the minus 40 mark. At these extreme wind chill values frostbite on exposed skin may occur in less than 10 minutes.

Winds are expected to diminish tonight as an Arctic ridge of high pressure builds into the area dropping overnight lows into the minus thirties with wind chill values in the minus forties.

Updated: 10:59 PM GMT on February 28, 2014

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Walking Coffee Making Kids and No Flood Report Yet.

By: plapman, 1:36 PM GMT on February 19, 2014

Today will bring clouds and a 40% chance of flurries late this afternoon.
the wind becoming easterly at 20 km/h near noon and a high of -4C(25F).
Tonight will remain cloudy with a 60% chance of flurries and an overnight low f -12C(10F).
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Abbey and me took advantage of the last couple of warm days and have been doing our full 2.5 mile walk.
The snow is to deep and soft on these warmer days and Abbey has been staying on the side of the road.
I haven't seen a bunny this winter, They must be on the down side of their cycle.
The daughter has been dropping by and the grandson has found the cupboard where I keep my coffee supplies. The little guy heads for it as soon as he comes in and has the beans and coffee maker out. I'll have to install a child lock on the door today.:)
This morning I looked for a flood forecast but it hasn't been issued yet. If the Assiniboine River watershed to the west of us has as much snow as us the Portage diversion will be operational again.

Updated: 5:50 PM GMT on February 26, 2014

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Snow For Sale.

By: plapman, 2:27 AM GMT on February 14, 2014

Not a good picture, the curtains are reflecting in the living room window, but it shows the amount of snow that has to melt before we see green grass.
again.
You can almost tell the temp by the distance the steam from the neighbor's chimney goes until it disappears, the colder it is the further it goes. The flatness of it also gives an idea of wind speed and direction. The picture shows a northerly wind.




Updated: 1:35 PM GMT on February 19, 2014

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Back to the Gopher Trails

By: plapman, 1:29 PM GMT on February 12, 2014

Today will start mainly sunny but will see Increasing cloudiness this afternoon. The wind becoming southeast at 20 km/h this afternoon. The high will be -17C(1F) but the wind will make it feel like -28C(-18F) this afternoon.
Tonight will see more snow on the prairie with 5 to 10 cm(2-4inches) falling. the wind will cause local blowing snow late this evening and after midnight. The temperature will hover near -17C(1F) with a wind chill of -29C(-20F).
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Abbey and me have been taking advantage of the slightly warmer temps and have been getting out for our walks. Yesterday we made the full loop along the gopher trails. The snow is so hard now that Abbey can run on top in the fields but she hasn't spotted any bunnies yet.
Last night while the Queen was working I went for coffee at a friends.

Updated: 2:25 AM GMT on February 14, 2014

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Today's Weather Trivia

By: plapman, 2:19 PM GMT on February 09, 2014

9 February 1905:
A huge snowstorm buried the Maritime Express at Folly Mountain, NS, for 3 days. So deeply buried were the locomotives that a hole had to be poked through a drift to get air into the engine cabs and expel the suffocating coal gas. Water for boilers was exhausted, so crew shovelled snow into the tender to melt it. A driver of a team of horses hauling hay drove his rig over top of the train.
Excerpt from 'The Canadian Weather Trivia Calendar' by David Phillips. © Environment Canada

Updated: 1:28 PM GMT on February 12, 2014

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A Trip to the Corner Store

By: plapman, 1:33 PM GMT on February 02, 2014

Today will be cloudy with a 40% chance of flurries. The wind becoming southwest at 20 km/h near noon. The high will be -10C(14F).
Tonight will remain cloudy with the 40% chance of flurries continuing this evening and after midnight then partly cloudy. The wind up to will be 15 km/h. The overnight low will be -22C(-8F) but the wind will make it feel like -30C(-22F)
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Last night on a trip to the corner store. We met a couple who had walked across town and were cold and asking for a ride home. It turns out that they were cousins of the girl who froze to death during our blizzard.
The Queen says she'll never refuse a cold person a ride again.
A surveillance camera showed that the girl who froze tried to flag down numerous cars but they drove past her. I can imagine what those drivers feel like now.


Updated: 2:18 PM GMT on February 09, 2014

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Retired and loving it. If I'd have known about retirement befor I started my 40 year career with the government of Manitoba I'd have retired first. :)

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