opal92nwf's Atlantic Hurricane Season 2013 Predictions
Here are my predictions for this year. It will be interesting to see how this season pans out. I think the three most prominent threats this year will be less recurving storms, the U.S. having a major hurricane strike, and Florida being hit by a hurricane.
1. First storm = early-mid June
2. Number of named storms = 15-18
3. Less recurves (mainly because we've been stuck in that pattern the last few years)
4. ^^And thus more of a threat to Florida
5. I would give a 50% chance of a Early season
hurricane strike on US.
6. Unlike last year, I expect one or more Cat. 4's
somewhere in the Atlantic. (Non-landfalling)
I'd say a 90% chance.
7. Six years since last Cat. 5 (2007), it's possible.
I'd say a 40% chance. (Non-landfalling)
8. I'd say a 60% chance of a major hurricane
landfall in US. It's been about eight years since
9. I would expect the above ^^ to not occur on the
10. A little more robust Cape Verde storms, and
because of #3, less of them recurving.
11. I would give Florida a 85% chance of getting a
hurricane strike. From what I've figured, this
stretch (since 2005) has been the longest
ever that Florida has gone without a hurricane
12. I would give a 30% chance of a Cat. 4-5 landfall
in the US.
13. A 65% chance of a late season hurricane strike on
14. Last storm = Mid-late November
15. For the activity level of the whole year, I
predict that from the first storm, activity will
stay steady without huge lulls (like 4-5 weeks)
and then get a lot higher in Early-mid August
with likely more than one storm at a time, and
then winding down in October-Nov. from there.