Trying to reason with the Hurricane Season

By: nrtiwlnvragn , 1:07 PM GMT on May 21, 2010

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Model Plots Link




















Explanations of the individual models from the National Hurricane Center



Storm Tracks Link

These storm tracks are from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and include both extratropical and tropical cyclones. They are highly speculative, you will see storms appear and disappear model run to model run. Keys to look for are multiple models forming storms in the same general area and that they persist on multiple model runs. Even then, storm formation may not occur. Method for determining tracks.



Last four GFS

Last four NAM

Last two UKMET

Last two NOGAPS

Last two CMC





Global Hazards Link





Probability of TC Formation within 24Hrs Link







Graphical Products Legend Link




Tropical Surface Analysis Link



24 Hour Surface Forecast Link



48 Hour Surface Forecast Link



72 Hour Surface Forecast Link



TAFB Experimental Gridded Marine Forecast Link








Sea Surface Temperature Link





Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Link





Ocean Heat Content







Sea Surface Temperature Depth at 38W








Tropical Storm Tomas animation loop.




Tropical Winds - The Official NWS Miami Newsletter


October Tropical Cyclone Climatology for South Florida




Hurricane Sector Visible Link





Hurricane Sector Infrared Link





Hurricane Sector Water Vapor Link

























Website I have been following from the Naval Postgraduate School based on the "Marsupial Paradigm" of tropical cyclogenesis from Wang, Z., M. T. Montgomery, and T. J. Dunkerton (2009), A dynamically-based method for forecasting tropical cyclogenesis location in the Atlantic sector using global model products

This theory is based on: (Excerpt from paper)

1) wave breaking or roll-up of the cyclonic vorticity near the critical surface in the lower troposphere provides the vorticity seedling for TC formation;
2) the wave critical layer is a region of approximately closed circulation (a pouch), where air is repeatedly moistened by convection and protected to some degree from dry air intrusion;
3) the parent wave is maintained and possibly enhanced by diabatically amplified mesoscale vortices within the wave.

This is regarded as a marsupial theory in which a proto-vortex is carried along by the parent wave until it is strengthened into a self-sustaining entity.



Cartoon of the marsupial pouch of tropical cyclogenesis associated with African easterly waves. The dashed green contours depict the horizontal wind currents of the easterly wave in the earth-based reference frame in the lower atmosphere, which is usually open with an inverted V pattern. The solid black curves delineate the approximate boundary of the marsupial wave pouch as viewed moving with the easterly wave. The pouch tends to protect the moist air motions inside from the generally hostile environment, such as dry air associated with the Sahara Air Layer (SAL) that flows westward from the African Sahel. Once the “joey” has attained sufficient spin within the pouch they can exist on their own and leave the mother pouch usually moving northward relative to the mother wave. The thick purple line (CL) and black line represent the critical latitude and the trough axis, respectively. The intersection of the critical line and the trough axis pinpoints the center of the pouch, which is the preferred location for tropical cyclogenesis.


Various images are available for the pouch tracking










Also animations of various parameters

Really neat Invest Tracking Webpage


Trying To Reason With Hurricane Season

Squalls out on the Gulfstream,
Big storms coming soon.
I passed out in my hammock,
God, I slept way past noon.
Stood up and tried to focus,
I hoped I wouldn't have to look far.
I knew I could use a Bloody Mary,
So I stumbled next door to the bar.

Chorus
And now I must confess,
I could use some rest.
I can't run at this pace very long.
Yes, it's quite insane,
I think it hurts my brain.
But it cleans me out and then I can go on.

There's something about this Sunday
It's a most peculiar gray
Strolling down the avenue
That's known as A1A
I was feeling tired, then I got inspired.
And I knew that it wouldn't last long
So all alone I walked back home, sat on my beach
And then I made up this song.

Chorus

Well, the wind is blowin' harder now
Fifty knots of there abouts,
There's white caps on the ocean.
And I'm watching for water spouts
It's time to close the shutters
It's time to go inside.
In a week I'll be in gay Paris;
That's a mighty long airplane ride.

Chorus
Yes, It cleans me out and then I can go on.

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17. beell
1:40 AM GMT on September 30, 2010
I'm takin a poll, nrt.
Was it or wasn't it?
;-]
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16647
16. nocaneindy
1:03 PM GMT on September 25, 2010
What a great blog! Thanks for the link to the Naval postgrad page!
Member Since: September 21, 2007 Posts: 34 Comments: 515
14. zoomiami
2:26 PM GMT on August 07, 2010
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


I find it difficult to identify high pressure from a single (or even loop) satellite image. I just added a graphic under the pouch section that shows more of the atlantic surface map, which shows where the highs are located.


ok -- so I have my studying laid out. Kid just surfaced and wants food, so I guess I'm off to start my Saturday chores.

Thanks for your help.
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4158
13. nrtiwlnvragn
2:20 PM GMT on August 07, 2010
Quoting zoomiami:
Also - on the satellite images that you have posted, is there a significant feature on these that shows where the Bermuda/Azore high is?



I find it difficult to identify high pressure from a single (or even loop) satellite image. I just added a graphic under the pouch section that shows more of the atlantic surface map, which shows where the highs are located.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11166
12. zoomiami
2:09 PM GMT on August 07, 2010
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


That represents a ridge axis. Here is a Graphical Products Legend


That's perfect - thanks.
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4158
11. nrtiwlnvragn
2:07 PM GMT on August 07, 2010
Quoting zoomiami:
On the 72 hr there is a large zig zag line from the east coast out to the Atlantic, what does this represent?


That represents a ridge axis. Here is a Graphical Products Legend
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11166
10. zoomiami
1:48 PM GMT on August 07, 2010
Also - on the satellite images that you have posted, is there a significant feature on these that shows where the Bermuda/Azore high is?

Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4158
9. zoomiami
1:46 PM GMT on August 07, 2010
On the 72 hr there is a large zig zag line from the east coast out to the Atlantic, what does this represent?
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4158
8. zoomiami
1:44 PM GMT on August 07, 2010
Thanks to all your great links, I think that I've found how to find (lol) all the answers to my questions.

Have a great Saturday.

modified to read "some" not all
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4158
7. nrtiwlnvragn
1:40 PM GMT on August 07, 2010
Quoting zoomiami:
Definitely - more people need to know its over here.

So here's the first question - on the surface forecast (24 hr), there are two dotted lines, one off the east coast with a 14 on it, and the other in the gulf of mexico. What does this represent?


Contour lines of surface pressure. Notice the solid lines are labeled 4mb difference between them. The dash lines represent a difference of 2mb from the surrounding solid lines.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11166
6. zoomiami
1:25 PM GMT on August 07, 2010
Definitely - more people need to know its over here.

So here's the first question - on the surface forecast (24 hr), there are two dotted lines, one off the east coast with a 14 on it, and the other in the gulf of mexico. What does this represent?
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4158
5. Ossqss
8:25 PM GMT on July 25, 2010
Great job on the bog :) Thanks!



I wish the last statement he makes in this video was true, but we have a ways to go yet.....
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
4. FTLSTRMCHSR
4:40 PM GMT on July 23, 2010
Interesting that the storm is looking healthier over Land, as with WILMA most people underestimate the shallow warms everglades that really act like a warm bowl of energy. I think that is what is happening here...anyone else agree?
3. homelesswanderer
11:29 AM GMT on July 03, 2010
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Thanks, makes it easier for me to just look here once instead of having to vist various sites.


Thats so true. Was wondering why the N.O. discussion said the 06 models were showing 95l going more NW. Now I see they meant the bams. Was great to know where to look. Thanks again. :)
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
2. nrtiwlnvragn
10:45 AM GMT on July 02, 2010
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Nice Blog! Everything you need thanks :)


Thanks, makes it easier for me to just look here once instead of having to vist various sites.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11166
1. homelesswanderer
9:30 AM GMT on July 02, 2010
Nice Blog! Everything you need thanks :)
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

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