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Trying to reason with the Hurricane Season
By: nrtiwlnvragn , 1:07 PM GMT on May 21, 2010
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Model Plots Link
Explanations of the individual models from the National Hurricane Center
Storm Tracks Link
These storm tracks are from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and include both extratropical and tropical cyclones. They are highly speculative, you will see storms appear and disappear model run to model run. Keys to look for are multiple models forming storms in the same general area and that they persist on multiple model runs. Even then, storm formation may not occur. Method for determining tracks.
Last four GFS
Last four NAM
Last two UKMET
Last two NOGAPS
Last two CMC
Global Hazards Link
Probability of TC Formation within 24Hrs Link
Graphical Products Legend Link
Tropical Surface Analysis Link
24 Hour Surface Forecast Link
48 Hour Surface Forecast Link
72 Hour Surface Forecast Link
TAFB Experimental Gridded Marine Forecast Link
Sea Surface Temperature Link
Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Link
Ocean Heat Content
Sea Surface Temperature Depth at 38W
Tropical Storm Tomas animation loop.
Tropical Winds - The Official NWS Miami Newsletter
October Tropical Cyclone Climatology for South Florida
Hurricane Sector Visible Link
Hurricane Sector Infrared Link
Hurricane Sector Water Vapor Link
Website I have been following from the Naval Postgraduate School based on the "Marsupial Paradigm" of tropical cyclogenesis from Wang, Z., M. T. Montgomery, and T. J. Dunkerton (2009), A dynamically-based method for forecasting tropical cyclogenesis location in the Atlantic sector using global model products
This theory is based on: (Excerpt from paper)
1) wave breaking or roll-up of the cyclonic vorticity near the critical surface in the lower troposphere provides the vorticity seedling for TC formation;
2) the wave critical layer is a region of approximately closed circulation (a pouch), where air is repeatedly moistened by convection and protected to some degree from dry air intrusion;
3) the parent wave is maintained and possibly enhanced by diabatically amplified mesoscale vortices within the wave.
This is regarded as a marsupial theory in which a proto-vortex is carried along by the parent wave until it is strengthened into a self-sustaining entity.
Cartoon of the marsupial pouch of tropical cyclogenesis associated with African easterly waves. The dashed green contours depict the horizontal wind currents of the easterly wave in the earth-based reference frame in the lower atmosphere, which is usually open with an inverted V pattern. The solid black curves delineate the approximate boundary of the marsupial wave pouch as viewed moving with the easterly wave. The pouch tends to protect the moist air motions inside from the generally hostile environment, such as dry air associated with the Sahara Air Layer (SAL) that flows westward from the African Sahel. Once the “joey” has attained sufficient spin within the pouch they can exist on their own and leave the mother pouch usually moving northward relative to the mother wave. The thick purple line (CL) and black line represent the critical latitude and the trough axis, respectively. The intersection of the critical line and the trough axis pinpoints the center of the pouch, which is the preferred location for tropical cyclogenesis.
Various images are available for the pouch tracking
Also animations of various parameters
Really neat Invest Tracking Webpage
Trying To Reason With Hurricane Season
Squalls out on the Gulfstream,
Big storms coming soon.
I passed out in my hammock,
God, I slept way past noon.
Stood up and tried to focus,
I hoped I wouldn't have to look far.
I knew I could use a Bloody Mary,
So I stumbled next door to the bar.
And now I must confess,
I could use some rest.
I can't run at this pace very long.
Yes, it's quite insane,
I think it hurts my brain.
But it cleans me out and then I can go on.
There's something about this Sunday
It's a most peculiar gray
Strolling down the avenue
That's known as A1A
I was feeling tired, then I got inspired.
And I knew that it wouldn't last long
So all alone I walked back home, sat on my beach
And then I made up this song.
Well, the wind is blowin' harder now
Fifty knots of there abouts,
There's white caps on the ocean.
And I'm watching for water spouts
It's time to close the shutters
It's time to go inside.
In a week I'll be in gay Paris;
That's a mighty long airplane ride.
Yes, It cleans me out and then I can go on.
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