Trying to reason with the hurricane season

By: nrtiwlnvragn , 2:54 PM GMT on May 29, 2008

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Trying To Reason With Hurricane Season

Squalls out on the Gulfstream,
Big storms coming soon.
I passed out in my hammock,
God, I slept way past noon.
Stood up and tried to focus,
I hoped I wouldn't have to look far.
I knew I could use a Bloody Mary,
So I stumbled next door to the bar.

Chorus
And now I must confess,
I could use some rest.
I can't run at this pace very long.
Yes, it's quite insane,
I think it hurts my brain.
But it cleans me out and then I can go on.

There's something about this Sunday
It's a most peculiar gray
Strolling down the avenue
That's known as A1A
I was feeling tired, then I got inspired.
And I knew that it wouldn't last long
So all alone I walked back home, sat on my beach
And then I made up this song.

Chorus

Well, the wind is blowin' harder now
Fifty knots of there abouts,
There's white caps on the ocean.
And I'm watching for water spouts
It's time to close the shutters
It's time to go inside.
In a week I'll be in gay Paris;
That's a mighty long airplane ride.

Chorus
Yes, It cleans me out and then I can go on.

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29. nrtiwlnvragn
2:34 PM GMT on August 19, 2009
Quoting biff4ugo:
Thanks for posting so much pertinent data together. It is a useful bundle.
The only odd graph I saw was the probability of landfall in the US as a continuous line. Your graph shows a 50% chance of 1.5 hurricanes making landfall during El Nino. There is 0% chance of .5 hurricanes hitting the US, since I don't think the statistics support near misses.
Showing fractions of hurricanes or continuous statistical data for this type of event doesn't make sense outside of a algorythm or statistical model.
2 cents.


Agree, you can't have half a hurricane. It's just how the statistics work out calculated over many years. The main point of that graph is there is not much difference in landfalling hurricane probabilities between La Nina and El Nino. Similar to the graph above it, which also shows fractional number of hurricanes, its just how the stats come out.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11341
28. biff4ugo
1:01 PM GMT on August 19, 2009
Thanks for posting so much pertinent data together. It is a useful bundle.
The only odd graph I saw was the probability of landfall in the US as a continuous line. Your graph shows a 50% chance of 1.5 hurricanes making landfall during El Nino. There is 0% chance of .5 hurricanes hitting the US, since I don't think the statistics support near misses.
Showing fractions of hurricanes or continuous statistical data for this type of event doesn't make sense outside of a algorythm or statistical model.
2 cents.
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 116 Comments: 1603
27. ronni9
7:07 PM GMT on July 26, 2009
HELLO! IT'S TIME FOR


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(({{ LAUS DEO }}))

R9
Member Since: December 3, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 850
26. seflagamma
2:21 PM GMT on July 18, 2009
Oh, for some reason I didn't realize you were local!
Please call me Gamma or Gams, my handle is too long.

and feel free to lurk on my blog anytime you want.


thanks again!
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 302 Comments: 40954
25. nrtiwlnvragn
2:01 PM GMT on July 18, 2009
24. seflagamma

Thanks for visiting. I regularly vist your blog, but just a lurker. I'm local, down in South Dade.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11341
24. seflagamma
12:35 PM GMT on July 18, 2009
Good morning nrti,
I just spotted your blog and enjoyed strolling down your header with all the information you have. Never visited here before.

Good Job and Thank you very much!

Gamma
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 302 Comments: 40954
18. shoreacres
2:07 PM GMT on February 25, 2009
Good morning, nrtiwlnvragn,

Not only did I spot you this morning, now I know what that funny collection of letters means. And I almost got it spelled right the first time!

I meant to tell you - love the cartoon at the top of your header. That could explain a lot....

A good day to you!



Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
17. beell
3:05 PM GMT on February 24, 2009
My pleasure, nert!
Look forward to seeing you on patrol in Doc's making gentle corrections and answering questions when you're ready!

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16920
14. BajaALemt
2:53 PM GMT on September 15, 2008
Nice place, ya got here ;) Enjoyed the 'song'...thanks
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
13. mobilebayrat
12:59 PM GMT on August 26, 2008
Wow, you have a lot of great info on your blog. Thanks for the probablity chart link. I have seen that before, but had forgotten about it as I don't think I have looked at it since Rita (maybe). I really appreciate it.
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 188
12. nrtiwlnvragn
1:42 AM GMT on August 14, 2008
11. HobeSoundShudders

The GFDL and HWRF ar tropical cyclone specific models, that is they are only run on tropical cyclones. Global models are run on the "world" weather patterns, its part of what your local mets use to generate local forecasts.
Information on models relating to tropical cyclones can be found here.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11341
10. nrtiwlnvragn
11:06 AM GMT on August 11, 2008
9. ajcamsmom2

Thanks for stopping by.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11341
9. ajcamsmom2
2:22 AM GMT on August 11, 2008
Thanks for the update
Member Since: March 15, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2492
8. stormdude77
1:05 AM GMT on July 19, 2008
Nice graphics and links...thanks for posting them!
3. cyclonebuster
4:16 PM GMT on June 02, 2008
Arthurs center re-firing 17.8N 90.9 W.

Link
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20468
2. nrtiwlnvragn
12:57 PM GMT on June 02, 2008
SJ

Thanks for the video!
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11341
1. StormJunkie
10:46 AM GMT on June 02, 2008
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874

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