Caribbean Weather Outlook

By: nigel20 , 3:47 PM GMT on March 26, 2012

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Caribbean Weather Outlook

Saharan Air Layer (SAL)


Wind Shear


Surface Winds


Wave Height


Global SST Anomaly


Global SST's


48hrs Tropical Cyclone Probability


Water Vapor


Infrared Satellite


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Satellite Imagery-Puerto Rico




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Tropical Atlantic


Cayman Islands Radar


Belize Radar


Puerto Rico Radar



Cuban Radars


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Anegada Cam


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Westbay Cayman port


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Rincon,Puerto Rico


St Maarten


St Barts


Soufriere Volcano in the island of Monteserrat


Grand Palladium Jamaica Resort & Spa


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1930. Tropicsweatherpr
10:27 AM GMT on August 12, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
541 AM AST WED AUG 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW NOW CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
FARTHER WEST AND REPOSITION OVER EASTERN CUBA BY FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN BY THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. MID LEVEL RIDGE AND WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
TO HELP MAINTAIN OVERALL DRY MID LEVEL CONDITIONS THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK. RIDGE IS TO THEN WEAKEN AS LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING
MOISTURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS. A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS NOW ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AND TRAILING MOISTURE WILL MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
REGION AS A DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY FILTER IN FROM
THE EAST LATER TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED MAINLY OVER THE
OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME BRUSHED
PARTS OF THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED OR REPORTED OVER LAND.FRAGMENTS
OF TRAILING MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...TO AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE WEST AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. LESSER SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...AS A
DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY. FOR THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK...EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS...WITH LIGHT EARLY MORNING TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS...FOLLOWED BY LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
WESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH DAY.

RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE PRESENT CONDITIONS
AND CONTINUED TO SUGGEST PWAT VALUES TO QUICKLY DECREASE TO BELOW
1.50 INCHES BY THURSDAY...AS THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL PROMOTE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MOST
OF THE ISLANDS. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY...THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL AGAIN INCREASE
THE CHANCE FOR ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH BEST CHANCE ON SUNDAY...AS TUTT LOW IS
FORECAST TO ONCE AGAIN REESTABLISH JUST NORTH OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND AND THE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...BRIEF SHRA ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
MAY CAUSE VCSH AT TIST/TISX/TJSJ UNTIL 12/16Z. SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN PR AFTER 12/16Z...PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS AT TJMZ WITH VCTS/VCSH LIKELY FOR TJBQ. WINDS WILL
BE FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 5-10 KT EARLY THIS MORNING...INCREASING
TO 10-15 KT AFTER 12/12Z CONTINUED FROM THE EAST BUT WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS DEVELOPING.

&&

.MARINE... SEAS WILL RANGE MAINLY BETWEEN 2 TO 5 FEET. MARINERS CAN
EXPECT EASTERLY TRADE WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 20 KNOTS. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 90 79 / 20 10 20 10
STT 90 79 88 79 / 20 20 20 20
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15726
1929. Tropicsweatherpr
10:34 AM GMT on August 11, 2015
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
606 AM AST TUE AUG 11 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN
WATERS TODAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL
BRING PERIODS OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL ESTABLISH CAP ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE LOW LEVELS AS TRADE WIND SHOWERS AFFECT
THE ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO
ENTER THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE FA. PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE
WATERS...WITH A FEW OF THEM BRUSHING THE NORTHEAST COASTAL
SECTIONS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL OVER LAND WAS NOT SIGNIFICANT. RADAR
AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A DRIER AIR MASS IS STILL
AHEAD OF THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE...THIS DRY AIR MASS
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY THIS MORNING...BUT CLOUDINESS IS
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW QUICKLY BY NOON TODAY...AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS INDUCED BY UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL BE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND ST. CROIX...AND IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN RANGES OF PR...BUT SPECIALLY OVER WESTERN PR.

AS MID LEVEL RIDGE ESTABLISHES AFTER THE WAVE PASSAGE ON
WEDNESDAY...CAP INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO RETURN WITH TRADE WIND
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WIND WARD AREAS OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR EACH
AFTERNOON FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO
AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE WEEKEND...INCREASING ONCE AGAIN
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR XCP MVFR IN SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA SPCLLY WEST PR
TUE/WED AFT INCLUDING TJMZ/TJBQ AND SOME OBSCD MTNS. WIND BLW
FL100 E-ESE 14-22 KT DECR 6-16 KT ON WED.

&&

.MARINE...AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OVER THE CARIBBEAN...WINDS OF 15
TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET ARE
EXPECTED TODAY. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
DUE TO LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 89 79 / 20 20 20 0
STT 90 80 89 79 / 40 20 20 10
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15726
1928. Tropicsweatherpr
10:06 AM GMT on August 10, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
555 AM AST MON AUG 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST...LATE THIS WEEK
ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL DOMINATE THE
AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TROPICAL WAVE NOW AROUND 57 WEST
IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA BY TUESDAY...INCREASING
CLOUDINESS AND THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. PASSING SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS...WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SHOWERS REACHING ISOLATED AREAS OF THE USVI JUST BEFORE DAY
BREAK. HOWEVER...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER LAND AREAS WERE JUST
TRACE AMOUNTS. FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW...THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS AND THEY COULD
REACH PARTS OF EASTERN PR AND THE USVI...HOWEVER...RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL
CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. LIMITING THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN PR DUE DIURNAL EFFECTS AND
AVAILABLE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE BY LATE TUE/EARLY WED AS TROPICAL WAVE
MOVES OVER THE ISLANDS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES
THAT PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES OVER ST. CROIX...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. DURING THIS
PERIOD...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY TO AFFECT
THESE AREAS AND SPECIALLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THRU AT LEAST FRIDAY...WITH
ISOLATED PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS
ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PR...AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS
FORECAST TO AFFECT OUR AREA DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS.



&&

.AVIATION...VFR XPCTD XCP IN SOME ISOLD SHRA THRU TUE. FEW OBSCD
WEST PR MTNS IN AFT. WIND BLW FL100 MAINLY E AT 12-20 KT BCMG SE ON
TUE.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET...AND WINDS AT
10-15 KNOTS FROM THE EAST WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO SEA BREEZES ACROSS THE NORTH AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF
PR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 89 78 / 20 10 20 30
STT 89 79 90 78 / 20 20 20 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15726
1927. Tropicsweatherpr
10:06 AM GMT on August 10, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
555 AM AST MON AUG 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST...LATE THIS WEEK
ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL DOMINATE THE
AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TROPICAL WAVE NOW AROUND 57 WEST
IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA BY TUESDAY...INCREASING
CLOUDINESS AND THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. PASSING SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS...WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SHOWERS REACHING ISOLATED AREAS OF THE USVI JUST BEFORE DAY
BREAK. HOWEVER...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER LAND AREAS WERE JUST
TRACE AMOUNTS. FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW...THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS AND THEY COULD
REACH PARTS OF EASTERN PR AND THE USVI...HOWEVER...RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL
CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. LIMITING THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN PR DUE DIURNAL EFFECTS AND
AVAILABLE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE BY LATE TUE/EARLY WED AS TROPICAL WAVE
MOVES OVER THE ISLANDS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES
THAT PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES OVER ST. CROIX...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. DURING THIS
PERIOD...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY TO AFFECT
THESE AREAS AND SPECIALLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THRU AT LEAST FRIDAY...WITH
ISOLATED PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS
ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PR...AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS
FORECAST TO AFFECT OUR AREA DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS.



&&

.AVIATION...VFR XPCTD XCP IN SOME ISOLD SHRA THRU TUE. FEW OBSCD
WEST PR MTNS IN AFT. WIND BLW FL100 MAINLY E AT 12-20 KT BCMG SE ON
TUE.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET...AND WINDS AT
10-15 KNOTS FROM THE EAST WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO SEA BREEZES ACROSS THE NORTH AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF
PR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 89 78 / 20 10 20 30
STT 89 79 90 78 / 20 20 20 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15726
1926. Tropicsweatherpr
10:20 AM GMT on August 09, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
515 AM AST SUN AUG 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE UNDER TROUGH PATTERN TO
THE WEST AND RIDGE PATTERN TO THE EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TRADE
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
TROPICAL WAVE...NOW LOCATED NEAR 52W...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WERE OBSERVED DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. OTHER THAN A FEW SPRINKLES OVER WATERS...
NO SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS DETECTED.

UNDER LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY WITH TRADE WIND SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS
LOCALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS EACH DAY. TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 52W
WILL REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR TWO INCHES ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. FAIR WEATHER WILL THEN PREVAIL THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY UNDER LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGE
EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH LINGERING MOISTURE THROUGH SUNDAY. DO NOT
YET SEE SIGNIFICANT RAIN DURING THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...PSBL MVFR IN SCT SHRA/-TSRA
AT TJMZ/TJBQ BETWEEN 17Z-22Z. WIND BLO FL100 FM SE AT 10-15 KT
BCMG ESE AT 15-22 KT BETWEEN 14Z-23Z. NO SIG OPERATIONAL WX
IMPACTS ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TRADES WITH WEAK RIDGING NORTH OF LOCAL
ISLANDS. SEAS 2-5 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 79 89 79 / 20 20 20 20
STT 92 79 90 79 / 20 20 20 20
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15726
1925. Tropicsweatherpr
10:21 AM GMT on August 07, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
605 AM AST FRI AUG 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...OVERALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR
TODAY AND INTO SATURDAY AS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE
LOCAL AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN SLOWLY MOVE WEST ON
MONDAY...WHERE IT WILL STAY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC
THOUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TUTT WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT WEAKENS...SOME
INSTABILITY AND SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA...GENERALLY PRODUCING LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH OF
RAIN SINCE MIDNIGHT...BUT THE TOTALS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IF WE ADD
THE TOTAL FROM LAST EVENING. HOWEVER THE RAINFALL HAS GREATLY
DIMINISHED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS.

OVERALL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TODAY...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.75 INCHES. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS
OF PR IN THE AFTERNOON. THEN IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...SOME SHOWERS COULD AFFECT EASTERN PR AS THE WEAK WAVE
APPROACHES.

SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT SHOWERY WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER DRIER AIR IS QUICK TO MOVE IN ON SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...DIMINISHING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXCEPT FOR
LOCALLY INDUCED SHOWERS. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BUT SO FAR IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. SO IT LOOKS LIKE AFTER THIS
WEEKEND...THINGS WILL SETTLE DOWN SOMEWHAT AND LOOK MORE LIKE IT
HAS BEEN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...WITH LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY
STARTING ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. CREATING BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MTN TOP OBSCD...IMPACTING MAINLY JMZ AND JBQ. VCSH
POSSIBLE AT JSJ/JPS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LVL WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM
THE EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST AT 15-20KT.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL BE RELATIVELY CALM WITH WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 4
FEET AND WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WITH LOCAL BUOYS
CURRENTLY CONFIRMING THE FORECAST. HOWEVER THERE IS A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS SOME OF THE LOCAL BEACHES IN MAINLAND
PUERTO RICO AND CULEBRA...WHILE THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS LOW
ACROSS THE USVI.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 91 79 / 20 30 30 10
STT 89 80 89 79 / 30 30 30 20
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15726
1924. Tropicsweatherpr
10:11 AM GMT on August 06, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
544 AM AST THU AUG 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY...SLOWLY MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC STARTING ON FRIDAY. UPPER
LOW WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN THROUGH THE AREA
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...KEEPING AVAILABLE MOISTURE AT OR BELOW
WHAT IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED THROUGH THE NIGHT
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. SOME OF THE SHOWERS BRIEFLY AFFECTED THE
USVI AS WELL AS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY OVERNIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE SLIGHTLY INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM ABOUT 1.5 INCHES TO ABOUT 1.3
INCHES BY LATE THIS MORNING...HOLDING AT ABOUT 1.3-1.5 INCHES
THROUGH THE DAY...THEN INCREASING SLIGHTLY AGAIN THIS
EVENING...ONCE AGAIN CAUSING BRIEF SHOWERS TONIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS TODAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN PR. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...WESTERN AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PR THIS
AFTERNOON.

FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE
GUIDANCE...WE STILL EXPECT PATCHES OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA. THESE PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL JUST BE INCREASING THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR AS THE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY AROUND 1.5-1.8
INCHES. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
OTHER THAN AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PR. BUT FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF PR AND THE USVI...ONLY
BRIEF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TODAY AND
FRIDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN AS
MOISTURE INCREASES AT THE TIME OF MAXIMUM HEATING...THERE IS ALSO
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND NO SAHARAN DUST. THIS MAY GIVE WAY TO MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WITH
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTER
THAT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED BRIEF
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO
SIGNIFICANT...THERE WILL BE AFTERNOON CONVECTION DUE TO LOCAL
EFFECTS ACROSS WESTERN PR MOST OF THE DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY BRIEF -SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS TIST/TISX/TJSJ
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN
PR AND MAY AFFECT TJMZ AND THE VICINITY OF TJBQ AFT 06/17Z. WINDS FROM
THE EAST AT 5-10KT...INCREASING AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS AND GUSTY AFTER 06/13Z.


&&

.MARINE...THE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE TRANQUIL FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SEAS GENERALLY BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET AND THE
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 90 78 / 20 20 20 20
STT 90 79 89 79 / 30 20 20 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15726
1923. Tropicsweatherpr
10:08 AM GMT on August 05, 2015
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
546 AM AST WED AUG 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LOCAL AREA TODAY
AND EARLY THURSDAY. THEN AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA...STAYING JUST NORTH
NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA FOR SEVERAL DAYS. AT THE SURFACE...A
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN IS STARTS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WHILE A SURFACE LOW EXITS THE EAST COAST OF THE
US ON SATURDAY...THEN BOTH REMAINING IN PLACE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED THROUGH THE NIGHT
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. SOME OF THE SHOWERS BRIEFLY AFFECTED THE
USVI AS WELL AS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING OVERNIGHT AND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ALMOST 2 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN PR IN
THE AFTERNOON...WHILE THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI
WILL HAVE AN INCREASE UP TO 1.7 INCHES OR SO. THIS MAY RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN PR. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS WILL
BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...THIS PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL
JUST BE INCREASING THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO CLOSE TO
NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AS THE VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT
RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS OTHER THAN AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. BUT FOR
THE EASTERN HALF OF PR AND THE USVI...ONLY BRIEF SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT IS NOT
UNTIL REALLY LATE NEXT WEEK...THAT WE SEE A GOOD INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. HAVING SAID THAT...IT IS TOO FAR IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD SO THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VCSH ACROSS THE TIST/TISX/TJSJ/TJBQ UNTIL MID MORNING
WITH SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS
OF PR AFTER 05/16Z...CAUSING VCSH/VCTS ACROSS TJBQ AND TJMZ WITH
POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA AT TJMZ AFTER 05/17Z. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY CALM STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IN THE MORNING HOURS SEAS WILL BE UP TO 6
FEET ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE MONA
PASSAGE. THEN IN THE AFTERNOON SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 5
FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 89 79 / 30 20 20 20
STT 89 78 89 78 / 30 20 20 20
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15726
1922. Tropicsweatherpr
10:18 AM GMT on August 04, 2015
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
525 AM AST TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT WILL THEN
ERODE LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES NOTED ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS. COASTAL TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

UNDER LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT...
CONTINUE TO EXPECT A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. SOME
HAZINESS IS ALSO EXPECTED TODAY UNDER A WEAK SAL.

AS RIDGE ALOFT ERODES AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ESTABLISHES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW MOISTURE IS EXPECTED. IN FACT...LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTED PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH A TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGE ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD
AREAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
WEDNESDAY THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY VERY BRIEF -SHRA ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH 04/18Z. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AROUND TJMZ
AFTER 04/18Z. WINDS FROM THE EAST AT 15-20KT AND GUSTY AFTER
04/13Z...DIMINISHING AFTER 04/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS EXPECTED TODAY.
SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS 4-6 FEET
DECREASING TO 3-5 FEET IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 91 80 / 10 20 20 20
STT 92 78 91 78 / 10 20 20 20
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15726
1921. Tropicsweatherpr
10:16 AM GMT on August 03, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
554 AM AST MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE EAST AND HOLD THROUGH MID WEEK. RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT WILL
THEN ERODE LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN
AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNT WERE LESS THAN HALF INCH.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO ERODE UNDER BUILDING RIDGE.
RIDGE ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY WITH A GENERALLY
FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH
LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES AS
WELL AS LOCALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
EACH DAY. HAZY SKIES EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY UNDER SAL.

AS RIDGE ALOFT ERODES AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ESTABLISHES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER SOMEWHAT BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THEREFORE...A SHIFT TO A WETTER PATTERN COULD BE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINALS. BRIEF SHRA/TSRA ARE MOVING CLOSE TO TJPS AND ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE MOVING TO THE WEST...AFFECTING TJPS THROUGH 03/10Z AND
POSSIBLY CAUSING SOME VCSH AT TJMZ. THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN AFTER
03/12Z LEAVING ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BRIEF
SHOWERS THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST AT 5-10KT THROUGH
03/13Z THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT AND GUSTY...STILL FROM THE
EAST BUT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.FIRE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO ERODE UNDER BUILDING
RIDGE. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 45-50 PERCENT AND WINDS BETWEEN
15 AND 20 MPH EXPECTED TODAY. SEE THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR
MORE DETAILS.

&&

.MARINE...CHOPPY SEAS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND
WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 90 79 / 30 30 30 20
STT 90 79 90 78 / 20 30 30 20
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15726
1920. Tropicsweatherpr
10:23 AM GMT on August 02, 2015
Good morning. At least scattered showers will fall today thru Monday in Puerto Rico and adjacent islands as a Tropical Wave moves thru the area.And the week will not be bone dry so a small relief to the drought.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
545 AM AST SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LOW/TUTT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. ANOTHER TUTT LOW WILL RELOCATE OVER PR BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. AT LOW LEVELS...A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WITH SAHARAN
DUSTS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WETTER
TRADES WILL KEEP THE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THE SECOND
PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE HAVE PRODUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF USVI...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND EASTERN PR EARLY THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ENHANCED SOMEWHAT BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LOW/TUTT...RESULTING IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...
THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS HAVE LIMITED THE RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION.

MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...REACHING
A MAXIMUM OF 1.8 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AT 03/06Z. HOWEVER...
GOOD UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS COMBINED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND
VORTICITY ADVECTION AT MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN A FEW ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS ARE MOVING QUICKLY...SO NO
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS WAVE.
AS THE WAVE MOVES WEST...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL ADVECT OVER THE
PR/USVI OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEN...DRY AND DUSTY AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE. THIS DRIER AIR MAS WILL REDUCE
THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION FROM
MONDAY EVENING TO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WETTER TRADE WINDS WILL
BRING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THE
SECOND PART OF THE WEEK...KEEPING THE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...BRF MVFR XPCTD IN SOME SHRA THIS MORNING BUT OVERALL
VFR CONT. SCT SHRA/TSRA CNTRL/WEST PR SUN AFT WI SOME OBSCD MTNS.
VFR WITH ISOLD SHRA ELSEWHERE. WIND BLW FL100 E 15-25 KT TODAY...
INCR LATE SUN NITE AND MON TO 20-40 KT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AROUND 15 KT AND SEAS OF 3-5 FEET ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FEET AND WINDS WILL
INCREASE UP TO 20KT. ALTHOUGH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 79 90 / 40 40 30 30
STT 80 89 79 90 / 50 50 30 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15726
1919. Tropicsweatherpr
10:17 AM GMT on August 01, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
518 AM AST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL CROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON MONDAY. DRY
AND STABLE AIR RETURNS ON TUESDAY. WET TRADES WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS
THE REGION SINCE MIDNIGHT. CONCENTRATIONS OF SAHARAN DUST HAVE
INCREASED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN REGION RESULTING IN HAZY
SKIES AND SOMEWHAT REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
USVI. THIS DRY AND DUSTY AIR MASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS INDICATED EARLY
THIS MORNING A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 55 WEST. THIS WAVE IS MOVING
RELATIVELY FAST ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND ITS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON MONDAY MORNING. CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS LIMITED AT THIS TIME...MAINLY DUE TO
INTRUSION OF SAHARAN AIR IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT PR/USVI ON MONDAY...HOWEVER
THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THIS WAVE...AROUND 20 KT...WILL LIMIT THE
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. DRY AND DUSTY AIR MASS IS EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THE WAVE. THE DRY AND STABLE AIR WILL SPREAD OVER USVI/PR
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...LIMITING ONCE AGAIN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
TRADE WINDS WILL BRING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION FROM MIDWEEK TO THE END OF NEXT WEEK. SO...ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL ADVECT OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS THE SECOND
PART OF NEXT WEEK. BUT OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ARE FORECAST THROUGH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES WITH EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15
KTS AND HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OF 10-20 KT AND SEAS OF 4-6 FEET ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE COASTAL WATERS
OF WESTERN PR WHERE SEAS OF 2-4 FEET CAN BE ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND
WINDS UP TO 20 KT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 89 80 / 10 20 20 40
STT 90 78 89 81 / 10 20 20 50
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15726
1918. Tropicsweatherpr
10:20 AM GMT on July 31, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
522 AM AST FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SURGE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. A DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL AFFECT THE REGION
MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGES WERE SHOWING AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN
RESPONSE TO A SURGE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL BECOME MORE FREQUENT THIS AFTERNOON...AS
MOISTURE COMBINE WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

FOR TONIGHT...A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE
REGION...LIMITING SIGNIFICANTLY THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS AREA OF DRY AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THE WHOLE
WEEKEND. IS NOT UNTIL MONDAY FORECAST MODELS INDICATED ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION. THEREFORE...AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA AND TSRA HAVE INCREASE ACROSS THE FLYING AREA.
AS A RESULT...BRIEF MVFR CIGS IN PASSING SHRA POSSIBLE THRU THIS
AFTERNOON. TSRA WILL FORM OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND INTERIOR PR
BETWEEN 17-22Z...WITH POSSIBLY MVFR/IFR CONDS AT TJMZ AND TJBQ. EAST
WINDS AT 15-20 KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. STABLE
CONDS WILL RETURN TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 90 79 / 40 40 20 20
STT 89 79 89 78 / 30 30 20 20
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15726
1917. Tropicsweatherpr
10:14 AM GMT on July 30, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
528 AM AST THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY AND FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE REGION NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS. BEST
ACTIVITY WAS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING
EDGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE.
THIS TROPICAL WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY AND FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA....MAINLY ON FRIDAY...WHEN LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCTS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST PWAT VALUES REACHING 2.00 INCHES OR
SO BY FRIDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN
MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FOR MONDAY...ANOTHER INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS THEN EXPECTED AS ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. HOWEVER VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS TNCM/TKPK AND ACROSS TIST/
TISX THIS MORNING. ISOLD TSRA ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ AFTER
17Z. LOW LVL EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 90 79 / 20 20 40 40
STT 90 79 87 79 / 30 30 30 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15726
1916. Tropicsweatherpr
10:16 AM GMT on July 29, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
532 AM AST WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN BY TODAY. IT IS TO THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHILE TRANSPORTING A SURGE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE. TUTT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRESS OVER THE REGION
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. IN GENERAL...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION OVERNIGHT. FOR TODAY...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATES THE REGION WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR
AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELITE IMAGES SHOWS WELL DEFINED TUTT LOW
NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRESS
ACROSS THE REGION NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN A
FAVORABLE AREA FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY. IN
ADDITION...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE MAINLY FRIDAY...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE REGION EXPECTED TO REACH
AROUND 2.10 INCHES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER
AREA OF DRY AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. BY MONDAY...ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VCSH/VCTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ
AND TJBQ AFTER 29/17Z. SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION...BUT VISIBILITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN P6SM. EAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AROUND 15 KTS FM SFC TO FL100.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. 5 FEET
MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS...ELSEWHERE 4 FEET
OR LESS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TODAY...MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO
RICO. REFER TO THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS
ABOUT THE CURRENT CONDITIONS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 78 89 78 / 20 10 30 20
STT 90 79 89 79 / 20 30 30 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15726
1915. Tropicsweatherpr
10:14 AM GMT on July 27, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
455 AM AST MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TUTT WILL
RELOCATE NEAR PUERTO RICO FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A SAHARAN
AIR LAYER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT LEAST UNTIL THURSDAY. A
TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED BY
THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. ONCE AGAIN...ANOTHER SAHARAN AIR LAYER
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION....MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH HAZE AND PASSING CLOUDS
PREVAILED OVERNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE DETECTED OVER LAND.

STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THURSDAY DUE TO THE PRESENCE
OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION AT LEAST
UNTIL TUESDAY. ALSO...A SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL PERSIST AT LEAST
UNTIL THURSDAY...TO RESULT IN DRY AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THRU MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THEREFORE...DRY AIR AND TRADE WIND CAP
WILL LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...MOSTLY
CONFINED EACH AFTERNOON OVER SECTIONS OF WESTERN PR AND A FEW
SPRINKLES OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND SECTIONS OF EASTERN PR
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE CWA BY THURSDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAVE THE BULK OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS. A TUTT LOW IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. THE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED TO THE TUTT LOW AND THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE ENOUGH TO ENHANCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE AMOUNT OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
DEPEND ON THE POSITION OF THE TUTT LOW WHICH COULD FAVOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN INDUCE SURFACE TROUGH. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN
QUICKLY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS SAL MOVES OVER THE REGION AND
HOLDS THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...VCSH/VCTS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ AFTER 27/17Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...MARINERS CAN EXPECT SEAS BETWEEN 2 AND 5 FEET WITH
OCCASIONAL SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS BELOW 18 KNOTS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE UP TO 20 KNOTS LATE IN THE MORNING HOURS AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...THE CARIBBEAN OFFSHORE AND COASTAL
WATERS AND THE MONA PASSAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 79 90 80 / 20 10 20 10
STT 90 80 90 78 / 20 20 20 20
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15726
1914. Tropicsweatherpr
10:38 AM GMT on July 25, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
408 AM AST SAT JUL 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS REMAIN THE RULE ACROSS
THE REGION THOUGH PATCHES OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER MOISTURE WILL PASS
THROUGH. ONE SUCH PATCH IS EVIDENT EARLY THIS MORNING AND RADAR
INDICATES SCATTERED...BUT BRIEF...SHOWERS OVER USVI. GFS SHOWS THE
MOISTURE EXITING WESTERN PR IN AFTERNOON BUT ENOUGH MIGHT LINGER
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS FOR THE WEST AND MODEL SOUNDINGS CERTAINLY SHOW
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME THUNDER. THIS MOISTURE IS ON THE
DOWNWIND SIDE OF A TROPICAL WAVE. THE WAVE AXIS WILL PASS PR
DURING AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH THE DRIER AIR. BETTER MOISTURE IS
CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG WITH ANOTHER...
WEAKER...TROPICAL WAVE. THIS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST AND BRUSH
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY...BUT MAINLY IN THE CARIBBEAN. NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE ISLANDS
DURING THIS NEXT WEEK. LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY MUCH OF THE TIME
ALSO WILL BE MORE SAHARAN AIR...MOST EVIDENT IN MODEL SOUNDINGS
GENERALLY JUST ABOVE 850 MB AND BY SOMEWHAT STRONGER THAN NORMAL
WINDS NEAR THAT LEVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONT ACRS PR/USVI THRU WEEKEND XCPT OUTSIDE CHC
BRF MVFR AND OBSCD MTNS IN SHRA/TSRA BOTH AFT FOR CENTRAL/WESTERN
PR. WIND BLW FL100 E 12-21 KT BCMG SE AT TIMES TONITE THEN INCR
16-28 KT SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN
NEAR 25N THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COLUMBIAN
COAST AND A COUPLE OF TROPICAL WAVES PASSING BY WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...PARTICULARLY ON
SUNDAY. WINDS AND RESULTANT SEAS WILL INCREASE ACCORDINGLY AND IT
MIGHT REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BY SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 78 91 80 / 30 10 20 10
STT 89 80 89 80 / 30 20 20 10
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15726
1913. Tropicsweatherpr
10:21 AM GMT on July 24, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTEDD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
532 AM AST FRI JUL 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TUTT LOW WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
WEEKEND... AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
TODAY AND HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE TUTT LOW IS TO THEN CUT
OFF AND SHIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN BY EARLY
TUESDAY... REACHING HISPANIOLA BY WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE PATTERN
ALOFT WILL THEN ERODE AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC TO MAINTAIN MODERATE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN INDUCED LOW
LEVEL TROUGH AND A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING AN
EASTERLY WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT...WITH NO RAINFALL OBSERVED OR DETECTED BY THE DOPPLER
WEATHER RADAR OVER LAND. PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY.
A DRIER AIR MASS AND STABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
AND SHOULD DOMINATE THE WEATHER CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER
DURING THE AFTERNOON...SOME LOCALLY AND DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS
MAY FORM MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. OVERALL THE SAHARAN
AIR LAYER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THIS WILL LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AS AREAS OF SUSPENDED SAHARAN
DUST PARTICULATES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE INDUCED LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND MOISTURE
SURGE SHOULD TRANSPORT FRAGMENTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF BRIEF EARLY MORNING SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL HOWEVER BE OF SHORT DURATION
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION....VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE HAZY...HOWEVER THE
VISIBILITIES WILL BE P6SM. AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY FORM ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PR TO AFFECT TJBQ...CLEARING AFTER SUNSET.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 24/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...RECENT BUOY DATA SUGGESTED SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS AND WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST DURING THE REST OF THE DAY...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 90 79 / 20 20 20 10
STT 89 79 89 79 / 20 30 30 20

&&
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15726
1912. Tropicsweatherpr
10:24 AM GMT on July 23, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
508 AM AST THU JUL 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL
DRIFT WESTWARD WHILE WEAKEN THRU SATURDAY. RIDGE PATTERN WILL THEN
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY AND HAZY SKIES PREVAILED OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THIS MORNING. DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY LIGHT
ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. NOT SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD
WELL AWAY FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. THE LIMITED MOISTURE LEFT
BEHIND THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE FEW SHOWERS AND A
COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO. NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS. A GENERALLY FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL THEN PREVAIL THURSDAY EVENING THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNDER BUILDING RIDGE AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THEREFORE...
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES...
WITH LIGHT EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS USVI AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...FOLLOWED BY A FEW LOCALLY INDUCED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND. SAHARAN DUST WILL ALSO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA. UNDER AN EAST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHERN
COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER EVENT IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION IN THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TAF SITES THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD. FEW -SHRA OVR COASTAL WATERS N AND S OF PR AN EN
ROUTE BTW ERN AND U.S.V.I. SCT LYS 020...050...AND SCT-BKN250 MAINLY
SE OF PR AND OVR VIRGIN ISLANDS. SE WNDS BLO FL200 BCMG SSW ABV UP
TO FL400. SFC WND LGT AND VRB TO CALM BCMG FM E AST 10 -15 KTS AFT
23/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 80 91 79 / 20 20 20 20
STT 90 81 90 79 / 30 20 20 20
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15726
1911. Tropicsweatherpr
10:14 AM GMT on July 22, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
514 AM AST WED JUL 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINGERING
MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND
WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF ANOTHER TROPICAL JUST ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. THE TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT...INDUCING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON...TONIGHT AND LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GFS
COMPUTER GUIDANCE...SUGGESTS PWAT VALUES INCREASING STEADY FROM
AROUND 1.7 INCHES THIS MORNING TO MORE THAN 2.0 INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...DECREASING BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WELL BELOW 2.O INCHES.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO TODAY. FOR THIS AFTERNOON THE MODELS SUGGEST DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE PREVAILING
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FAIR AND STABLE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND
UNDER BUILDING RIDGE AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR ACROSS PR/USVI TERMINALS THRU WED MORNING.
BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND USVI TERMINAL AS
PASSING SHRA EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THRU WED MORNING. FALSE CIGS AT
IST/ISX DUE TO SAHARAN DUST EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BETWEEN 16Z-
22Z...LOCALLY INDUCED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN PR IMPACTING MAINLY TJBQ/TJMZ. THE 22/00Z TJSJ UPPER AIR
SOUNDING INDICATED LOW LEVEL E TO ESE WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RELATIVELY CALM TO SLIGHTLY
CHOPPY...WITH WAVES UP TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN
WATERS...UP TO 4 FEET ELSEWHERE...AND WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15
KNOTS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 79 91 79 / 40 30 30 30
STT 89 82 90 79 / 40 40 40 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15726
1910. Tropicsweatherpr
10:12 AM GMT on July 21, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
539 AM AST TUE JUL 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS... TUTT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AT
LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. 500 MILLIBAR RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK TO MAINTAIN DRY MID
LEVEL CONDITIONS AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS TODAY. TROPICAL WAVE AXIS
NOW MOVING ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WAVE NOW MOVING CROSSING THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND REACHING EASTERN PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. THE TRAILING
EDGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AND A MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS NAAPS AEROSOL AND SAHARAN AIR
LAYER PRODUCT...ALL SUGGEST THAT THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND SUSPENDED DUST PARTICULATES WHICH
WAS NOW SPREAD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS AND
PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND EASTERN PR BY LATE MORNING AS THE WAVE CROSSES THE
AREA. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...DAYTIME
HEATING AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT...ALONG WITH INSTABILITY
DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE TUTT...WILL LEAD TO SOME ENHANCED
CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR...WEST AND NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE OVERALL CONVECTION HOWEVER IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...DUE TO MID LEVEL DRYING AND THE PRESENCE
OF SAHARAN DUST WHICH IS ALREADY MIXED IN AND ACCOMPANYING THE
TROPICAL WAVE. THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
STEER TOWARDS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO
UNDER THE PREVAILING EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW. SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN ISOLATED AREAS AS WELL AS DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
STRIKES WITH THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AND DECREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTEDON FRIDAY...WITH ANOTHER TUTT INDUCED LOW LEVEL TROUGH
FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL AGAIN INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR EARLY MORNING AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION EACH DAY. HOWEVER... NO WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
TIST...TISX AND TJSJ UNTIL 21/14Z IN PASSING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THIS MORNING.
THIS MOISTURE WILL CREATE PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AFFECTING TJMZ AND TJBQ.
ESE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEE BREEZE VARIATIONS EXPECTED TILL
21/22Z...DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY
NEAR SHRA/ISOLD TSRA TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...RECENT BUOY DATA SUGGESTS SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND
AND WINDS 10-15 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
TRADE WINDS TO 15-20 KNOTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS...GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 80 91 79 / 40 30 40 30
STT 89 81 89 80 / 50 40 40 40
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15726
1909. Tropicsweatherpr
10:09 AM GMT on July 21, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
539 AM AST TUE JUL 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS... TUTT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AT
LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. 500 MILLIBAR RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK TO MAINTAIN DRY MID
LEVEL CONDITIONS AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS TODAY. TROPICAL WAVE AXIS
NOW MOVING ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WAVE NOW MOVING CROSSING THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND REACHING EASTERN PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. THE TRAILING
EDGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AND A MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS NAAPS AEROSOL AND SAHARAN AIR
LAYER PRODUCT...ALL SUGGEST THAT THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND SUSPENDED DUST PARTICULATES WHICH
WAS NOW SPREAD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS AND
PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND EASTERN PR BY LATE MORNING AS THE WAVE CROSSES THE
AREA. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...DAYTIME
HEATING AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT...ALONG WITH INSTABILITY
DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE TUTT...WILL LEAD TO SOME ENHANCED
CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR...WEST AND NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE OVERALL CONVECTION HOWEVER IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...DUE TO MID LEVEL DRYING AND THE PRESENCE
OF SAHARAN DUST WHICH IS ALREADY MIXED IN AND ACCOMPANYING THE
TROPICAL WAVE. THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
STEER TOWARDS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO
UNDER THE PREVAILING EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW. SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN ISOLATED AREAS AS WELL AS DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
STRIKES WITH THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AND DECREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTEDON FRIDAY...WITH ANOTHER TUTT INDUCED LOW LEVEL TROUGH
FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL AGAIN INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR EARLY MORNING AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION EACH DAY. HOWEVER... NO WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
TIST...TISX AND TJSJ UNTIL 21/14Z IN PASSING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THIS MORNING.
THIS MOISTURE WILL CREATE PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AFFECTING TJMZ AND TJBQ.
ESE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEE BREEZE VARIATIONS EXPECTED TILL
21/22Z...DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY
NEAR SHRA/ISOLD TSRA TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...RECENT BUOY DATA SUGGESTS SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND
AND WINDS 10-15 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
TRADE WINDS TO 15-20 KNOTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS...GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 80 91 79 / 40 30 40 30
STT 89 81 89 80 / 50 40 40 40
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15726
1908. Tropicsweatherpr
10:13 AM GMT on July 20, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
543 AM AST MON JUL 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS... TUTT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC
ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WHILE
SHIFTING SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
HELP TO MAINTAIN A PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ALOFT TODAY.

LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA... AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. A TUTT INDUCED LOW LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS NOW
CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED LIMITED
AREAS OF MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THIS TROUGH.

A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS CURRENTLY NEAR 55 WEST WILL CONTINUE
WESTWARD AND REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES BY EARLY TUESDAY. RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY SO FAR ALSO SUGGESTS ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE
ACCOMPANYING THIS WAVE...BUT SO FAR CONVECTION WITH THE WAVE HAS
BEEN LIMITED AS IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DOMINANT SAHARAN AIR
LAYER.

&&

.DISCUSSION... THE PROXIMITY OF THE TUTT WILL AID IN ENHANCING
PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS LOCAL WATERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AS
THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THEREAFTER...VARIABLY
CLOUDY SKIES BUT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST INTERIOR AND
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO. LESSER SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
EXPERIENCED OVER THE U.S.VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE REST OF THE
DAY.

THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREAS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A GRADUALLY DECREASE IN
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND CLOUDINESS BY LATE THURSDAY AND THE REST OF
THE WEEK AS DRIER SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL AGAIN SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION TO LIMIT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. MEANWHILE THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN ONCE AGAIN TO MAINTAIN THE MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
TRADE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT TJSJ...TISX...TIST AS WELL AS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FLYING
AREA UNTIL AT LEAST 20/14Z. AFTER 20/16Z SHRA O EVEN TSRA WILL
AFFECT TJMZ AND TJBQ WITH PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS
AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY IN THE
MORNING BUT INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS AND
LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS IN SOME AREAS AFTER 20/14Z.

&&

.MARINE....OVERALL SEAS WERE 3 FEET OR LESS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BE LESS THAN 5 FEET TODAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS
ACROSSTHE REGIONAL WATERS. EXPECT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS AND
SEAS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS
FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 88 80 / 20 50 50 40
STT 90 80 89 80 / 20 50 50 40
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15726
1907. Tropicsweatherpr
10:12 AM GMT on July 19, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
520 AM AST SUN JUL 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY MID LEVELS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THRU LATE
MONDAY. UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL SINK FARTHER
SOUTH TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA MAINTAINING TROUGH PATTERN FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK AS SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES ERODES SLOWLY THRU MONDAY EVENING. MOISTURE INCREASES ON
TUESDAY ACROSS THE ISLANDS DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE.


&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE ISLANDS AS PASSING SHOWERS MOVED OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND THE EASTERN HALF OF PR. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE JUST
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. AT LEAST THRU LATE MONDAY...EXPECT
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
WESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND BRIEF ISOLATED PASSING
SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHT PERIOD. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE FORECAST
TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME...THE WAVE ON TUESDAY IS EXPECTED
TO PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS CREATING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THRU THE DAY AND TRIGGERING
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PR.


&&

.AVIATION...QUITE A FEW SHRA SHOWING ON RADAR AND IMPLIED BY
SATELLITE FM PR EWD THRU LEEWARDS. BUT VRY FEW SHRA ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LWR THAN VFR CONDS AND THOSE WL BE BRF...WL AMD IF NEEDED.
WIND MON E-ESE 12-21 KT THRU MON.


&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TRADES FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. INCREASING BY MID WEEK DUE TO WIND SURGE BEHIND
NEXT TROPICAL WAVE. SEAS GENERALLY BELOW 4 FEET. HOWEVER...LOCAL
SEA BREEZE WILL INCREASE WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KT ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS OF PR THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 88 79 / 30 20 20 40
STT 89 78 89 79 / 40 20 20 40
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15726
1906. Tropicsweatherpr
11:22 AM GMT on July 18, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
537 AM AST SAT JUL 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS WILL MEANDER AND
WEAKEN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS UPPER
RIDGE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BUILDS THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...A SHORT WAVE TROF ASSOCIATED TO THE TUTT WILL PASS
OVER THE MONA PASSAGE AND NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...DRY MID LEVELS AND LOW LEVEL TRADE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. A WEAK WEST MOVING INDUCED SURFACE TROF
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD ENHANCE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
TODAY. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY LATE
MONDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED
OVERNIGHT WITH VERY LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. HAZE DUE TO SAHARAN DUST WILL CLEAR TODAY. HOWEVER...DRY MID
LEVELS AND BELOW NORMAL PWAT VALUES WILL MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS THRU EARLY MONDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIMITED
AFTERNOON SHALLOW CONVECTION OVER SECTIONS OF WESTERN PR AND THE
MONA PASSAGE. UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THRU EARLY IN
THE FCST PERIOD. FROM TUE-THU...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE DUE TO THE
PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...BRINGING BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN
BY NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SAHARAN DUST LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION AND APPARENTLY
STILL GIVING SENSORS AT TIST/TISX FALSE CIGS...BELIEVE CONDS TO
IMPRV WI DAYLIGHT. VFR CONT ALL TAF SITES THO SHRA WL PASS MAINLY
THRU ATLANTIC WATERS TDY AND PSBL SHRA/TSRA SW PR IN AFT. MAYBE AN
OBSCD MTN OR TWO. WINDS BLW FL150 ENE 12-20 KT BCMG E TONITE-SUN.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST
BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...HIGHER SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
NORTHWEST COASTS OF PUERTO RICO. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS
FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY TUESDAY...THIS WILL
INCREASE THE WINDS ACROSS THE ANEGADA PASSAGE TO THE OFFSHORE
CARIBBEAN WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 89 79 / 20 10 10 20
STT 89 78 89 78 / 20 10 10 20
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15726
1905. Tropicsweatherpr
9:55 AM GMT on July 17, 2015
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
329 AM AST FRI JUL 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE IN CARIBBEAN HAS MOVED INTO CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND TRAILING THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA.
DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO AREA WITH A RIDGE AT AND BELOW 700 MB
THOUGH THE SAHARAN AIR IS LOSING ITS GRIP ON THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

VERY DRY AIR WILL STICK WITH US THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOW
CHANCES OF RAINFALL. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO APPROACH IS
CURRENTLY NEAR 50W BUT MOISTURE IS TRAILING WELL BEHIND IN THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WHERE ANOTHER WAVE IS NEAR 35W-40W.
MODELS SHOW THESE WAVES AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE HIGHLY FRAGMENTED
AS THEY INTERACT WITH THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
MEANDERING NORTH OF THE LEEWARDS. IT WILL CAUSE WESTERLY WINDS
ALOFT TO PREVENT THE WAVES FROM DEVELOPING FURTHER. 00Z GFS IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN IN PUSHING THE WAVES
TOWARDS PR/USVI AND ITS TIMING IS NOW SIMILAR TO 12Z AND 00Z
ECWMF. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH DELAY ARRIVAL OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
UNTIL TUE WHILE IT IS DOUBTFUL WHETHER ANY WAVE AT ANY LEVEL WILL
ARRIVE THAT COULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THRU
THE FCST PERIOD. HAZY SKIES BUT VSBY P6SM...FALSE OVC CIGS AT
IST/ISX DUE TO SAHARAN DUST. ISOLATED SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
PR BETWEEN 17Z-21Z...COULD LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR CONDS AT JMZ AND MTN
TOP OBSCD. EAST WINDS BLO FL200 AT 10-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT
SFC IN SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 14Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SOME CONCERN OVER EXTREMELY DRY AIR MOVING ACROSS
THE ISLANDS TODAY. IT WILL ONLY BE 2 KFT OFF THE SURFACE OR SO BUT
THERE IS ONLY LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR IT TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. SOME
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REACH 40 PERCENT RH BUT WINDS WILL NOT REACH
CRITICAL VALUES. WILL ISSUE RFD STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THIS. WINDS
WILL BE TOO WEAK TO PREVENT SEA BREEZES.

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE ADJUSTMENTS MADE THOUGH WINDS AND SEAS TO LAY
DOWN SOMEWHAT THE REST OF THIS WEEK. SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS 25N-30N
TO WEAKEN A LITTLE AND REMAIN WEAK WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 90 78 / 20 10 10 20
STT 90 79 89 78 / 20 10 10 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15726
1904. Tropicsweatherpr
10:01 AM GMT on July 16, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
405 AM AST THU JUL 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THRU EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS
SKIMMING BY PR/USVI COASTAL WATERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
17N THIS MORNING. TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CURRENTLY
CENTERED JUST NORTHEAST OF LEEWARDS IS CONTRIBUTING TO SHEAR OVER
THE TOP OF THE WAVE AND HELPING SUPPRESS ITS DEVELOPMENT BEYOND
ITS CURRENT STRENGTH...AT LEAST FOR TODAY. SOME OF THE STORMS ARE
QUITE STRONG...MAINLY FARTHER INTO CARIBBEAN AND AM PRETTY
CONFIDENT THIS WAVE WILL NOT IMPACT THE ISLANDS AT ALL. SAHARAN
AIR IS ON THE NORTH AND EAST FLANK OF THE WAVE AS IT IS MOVING
FASTER THAN THE SAHARAN AIR. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE ISLANDS
TODAY WILL BE NO MORE THAN SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER OVER WESTERN PR AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OR LESS ELSEWHERE.
AFTER SAT IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL GET A BREAK FROM SAHARAN DUST
UNTIL AT LEAST TUE/WED.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL ARRIVE ON MON THOUGH MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW THAT NIGHT AND INTO TUE. WHILE IT WOULD BE
MOVING QUICKLY IT MAY BE OUR BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
IN QUITE AWHILE.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. CLOUDINESS AND
SHRA ACTIVITY INCREASING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THRU THIS
EVENING DUE TO TROPICAL WAVE PASSING ACROSS THE FLYING AREA. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHRA/TSRA THRU THU
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY WESTERN PR TERMINALS AND OVER CARIBBEAN
WATERS/MONA PASSAGE. VCTS POSSIBLE NEAR ISX/KPK THRU AT LEAST 16Z.
LOW LEVEL EAST WINDS BETWEEN 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KT.

&&

.MARINE...TROPICAL WAVE WILL KICK WINDS UP A LITTLE IN CARIBBEAN
TODAY...ENOUGH TO PUSH SEAS TO 7 FEET FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF THE
ISLANDS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAUSE WINDS/SEAS TO BE BRIEFLY HIGHER.
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS PASSING NEAR ST. KITTS ATTM TO MOVE INTO
SOUTH PART OF AMZ732 LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 91 79 / 0 10 20 10
STT 89 79 88 78 / 20 10 20 10
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15726
1903. Tropicsweatherpr
10:34 AM GMT on July 15, 2015
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
400 AM AST WED JUL 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...LATEST BAND OF DRY AIR HAS BEEN ARRIVING OVER
PR/USVI OVERNIGHT AND REDUCED SHOWERS TO BARELY NOTICABLE ON
RADAR. MIMIC-TPW FROM CIMMS SUGGESTS THE AIR IS NOT QUITE AS DRY
AS GFS OR NESDIS TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER INDICATE. DO NOT HAVE
SOUNDER DATA OR RAOBS TO CONFIRM WHICH IS MORE CORRECT BUT
DIFFERENCES ARE NOT ENOUGH TO ADJUST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
VERY MUCH. BELIEVE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER OVER WESTERN
PR AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE IS THE BEST WE CAN HOPE FOR
TODAY.

LATEST AREA OF SAHARAN AIR IS NEARLY CO-LOCATED WITH MOISTURE IN
THE NEXT APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE JUST EAST OF LESSER ANTILLES.
THE MOISTURE WILL BEGIN ARRIVING LATE TONIGHT AND REACH PEAK
VALUES OVER LOCAL AREA DURING THE DAY ON THU. THE SAHARAN AIR
MIGHT PREVENT MUCH RAIN AGAIN OVER EASTERN PR/USVI BUT INCREASED
SHOWERS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY FOR NORTHWEST PR BY AFTERNOON. 00Z GFS
ALSO SHOWS A BROADER COVERAGE FOR THE MOISTURE RELATIVE TO NAM
WHILE ECMWF IS INBETWEEN THEM. IT HAS CAUSED GFS MOS PROBABILITY
OF RAIN TO BE MUCH HIGHER THAN IT IS FROM NAM FOR SAN JUAN...BUT
WITH THE PRESENCE OF SAHARAN AIR HAVE LEANED TOWARDS LOWER
CHANCES. A TROPICAL WAVE WITH BETTER MOISTURE WITHOUT SAHARAN AIR
APPEARS LIKELY FOR MON/TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HAZE DUE TO SAHARAN DUST
EXPECTED BUT VSBY WILL REMAIN P6SM. SHRA/-TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NEAR TJMZ AND TJBQ AFTER 17Z...WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE DURING SHRA.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 15-20 KT WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS BETWEEN 14-21Z.

&&

.MARINE...TRADE WINDS TO MAINLY REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEK
AS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC RIDGE PERSISTS ALONG 30N. IT WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY BY SAT. GWW MODEL STILL INDICATES WAVES APPROACHING 7
FEET NORTHEAST OF BVI BY THU MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A BRIEF
INCREASE IN TRADES NEAR LEEWARDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 89 77 / 20 40 50 30
STT 90 79 88 78 / 20 50 50 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15726
1902. Tropicsweatherpr
10:38 AM GMT on July 14, 2015
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
551 AM AST TUE JUL 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE WEST
AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WHICH WILL KEEP MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS
EXPECTED TODAY...BEGINNING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING A MORE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF
CUBE CONTINUES WEAKENING SLOWLY WHILE A TUTT IS MOVING FROM THE
EAST INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY THURSDAY ALONG WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED FOR THAT TIME AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE THAT JUST PASSED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
WILL LEAVE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND. MEANWHILE THE UPPER
TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF CUBA CONTINUES WEAKENING SLOWLY...NOT
HAVING TOO MUCH OF A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT IN THE LOCAL AREA. SOME
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR
CURRENTLY. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE
BROUGHT WAS MODEST AND WITHOUT A GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THE
COVERAGE AREA OF SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS MAY BE LIMITED TO THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF PR THIS AFTERNOON. FOR WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER
ROUND OF SAHARAN DUST MOVES IN...A RELATIVELY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER A STRONGER TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY...THIS ONE LOOK TO BRING DECENT MOISTURE AS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 2
INCHES...WHICH IS STILL OVER THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. IN ADDITION...A STRONG UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM
THE EAST...CAUSING SOME INSTABILITY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHES. THIS MEANS THAT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BE IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON THURSDAY. THEN DRY AIR MOVES
IN ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES IN ON MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA WITH VERY BRIEF MVFR CONDS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AT THE LEEWARD TERMINALS AS WELL
AS JSJ/IST/ISX. AFT 14/17Z ISOLATED TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER W PR...
AFFECTING JMZ THRU 14/22Z. WINDS ESE 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR SEAS UP TO 6
FEET AND/OR WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE LOCAL PASSAGES. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
WINDS IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...CAUSING WINDS TO BE AT AROUND
15-20 KNOTS AT ACROSS THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE USVI AS WELL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 90 79 / 30 20 20 40
STT 88 79 89 79 / 30 20 20 50
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15726
1901. Tropicsweatherpr
10:19 AM GMT on July 13, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
541 AM AST MON JUL 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND CUBA IS MOVING
WEST AS IT WEAKENS...MEANWHILE A STRONGER UPPER LOW WILL BE
APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE EAST FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WORKWEEK. DRIER AIR WITH SOME SAHARAN DUST IS MOVING IN
TODAY...THEN DECREASING ON TUESDAY AND MOVING IN ONCE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING ON TUESDAY THEN A
STRONGER TROPICAL WAVE MOVES IN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH SOME HAZE IS IN STORE FOR THE
LOCAL ARE TODAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WESTERN PR
MAY OBSERVE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH MODERATE EASTERLY
WINDS. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA ON
TUESDAY...THIS WAVE WILL INCREASE THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
COMBINED WITH THE WEAKENING...BUT STILL PRESENT UPPER TROUGH...IT
SHOULD DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF SAHARAN DUST MOVES IN ON WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY DRY DAY
IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER A STRONGER TROPICAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...THIS ONE LOOK TO BRING VERY DECENT
MOISTURE AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL
INCREASE TO ABOUT 2.2 INCHES...WHICH IS IN THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN ADDITION...A STRONG UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE IN FROM THE EAST...CAUSING SOME INSTABILITY AS THE TROPICAL
WAVE APPROACHES. THIS MEANS THAT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON THURSDAY. THEN DRY
MOVES IN ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE
NEXT TROPICAL WAVE MOVES IN ON MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS.
SAHARAN DUST WILL CAUSE SOME HAZE BUT VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN P6SM. WINDS WILL BE AT ABOUT 10-15KT FROM THE EAST WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS. VCSH POSSIBLE FOR TJMZ/TJBQ IN THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS SEAS WILL BE UP
TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS TODAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 80 86 80 / 20 20 20 20
STT 82 80 82 80 / 20 20 20 20
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15726
1900. Tropicsweatherpr
10:22 AM GMT on July 12, 2015
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
511 AM AST SUN JUL 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING TROPICAL WAVE AND
THE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER
BUILDING RIDGE AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WATERS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. BASED
ON U.S.G.S. SENSORS AND RADAR ESTIMATES...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS WERE BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES OVER
SE PR.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING TROPICAL WAVE AND THE PROXIMITY
OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. STRONGEST SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AS
WELL AS OVER AND NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL IN THE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE U.S.V.S AND THE EAST AND
SOUTH COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO. URBAN FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH
THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

AS UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WEAKENS...RIDGE ALOFT
WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTHEAST. RIDGE ALOFT WILL THEN HOLD THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...PROMOTING EROSION IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS
A RESULT...UNDER RIDGE ALOFT AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...
EXPECT FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
EACH DAY. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A PULSE OF SAHARAN
DUST REACHING THE AREA ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PULSE ON
WEDNESDAY. A SHORT BREAK IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY...A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER
AND THUNDER ACTIVITY IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY AND THE
NEXT WEEKEND...UNDER LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND BUILDING
RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...TROPICAL WAVE BRINGING MOISTURE AND RAIN TO THE LOCAL
AREA. -SHRA LIKELY ACROSS TJSJ/TJMZ/TJPS/TJBQ THROUGH 12/12Z WHILE
VCSH IS POSSIBLE FOR TIST/TISX. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS
TJSJ/TJMZ/TJBQ AFTER 12/15Z...WHICH MAY CAUSE MVFR CONDS. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL 12/13Z THEN INCREASE TO 10 TO
15KTS AND GUSTY FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN
A MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK.
WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A WIND
SURGE MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. DEPARTING TROPICAL WAVE AND
THE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 79 89 79 / 60 20 20 20
STT 88 78 90 79 / 20 20 20 20
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15726
1899. Tropicsweatherpr
10:29 AM GMT on July 11, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
513 AM AST SAT JUL 11 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MEANDERING UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS FEATURE
WEAKENS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTH WITH ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE EAST. TROPICAL WAVE NOW
LOCATED ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED ACROSS
THE WATERS AS WELL AS USVI AND THE EAST COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO
RICO. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WERE
MINIMAL. WINDS WERE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 10 MPH OR LESS.

PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY LOCALLY
INDUCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NW PR AS
WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE METRO AREA IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING A SHARP INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ON SUNDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED
ACROSS THE WEST QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH BEST
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS REMAINING OVER THE WATERS.

MONDAY THRU THURSDAY...SOME DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED EACH DAY. HOWEVER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED UNDER RIDGE
ALOFT AND DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST A PULSE OF SAHARAN DUST REACHING THE AREA ON MONDAY...
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PULSE ON WEDNESDAY. A SHORT BREAK IS EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY...SHOWER INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. FAIR
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT WEEKEND...AS RIDGE
PATTERN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE
EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 11/16Z ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINALS WITH VCSH LIKELY ACROSS TNCM/TKPK/TIST/TJSJ THROUGH
11/16Z. THEREAFTER...AREAS OF MTN OBSCURATIONS AND SHRA/TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE BTWN 11/18 AND 11/23Z..POSSIBLY AFFECTING TJMZ AND TJBQ.
WINDS FROM THE EAST AT 5 TO 10 KT UNTIL 11/13Z...STRENGTHENING
THEREAFTER TO 10 TO 15KT AND GUSTY FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS AND SEAS 5 FEET OR LESS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SCA CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 87 80 / 20 20 20 20
STT 90 79 88 79 / 40 20 20 20
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15726
1898. Tropicsweatherpr
10:27 AM GMT on July 09, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
519 AM AST THU JUL 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW/TUTT WILL REMAIN OVER THE BAHAMAS...
CUBA AND HISPANOLA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RIDGE NORTH OF THE
AREA WILL MAINTAIN A DRY AIR AND STABLE MASS AT MID LEVELS. OVERALL...
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ANTICIPATED THE
REST OF THE WEEK...WITH SLIGHTLY WETTER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHALLOW MOISTURE HAVE MOVED OVER THE REGION SINCE
MIDNIGHT...RESULTING IN A FEW ROUNDS OF LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE EAST AND NORTH PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
HAVE REMAINED BELOW ONE TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THESE AREAS. ADDITIONAL
PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF USVI AND EASTERN PR
THROUGH MID MORNING. MINIMAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED WITH
THIS MORNING ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...ALLOWING SEA BREEZES TO CONVERGE OVER WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PR THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A FEW SHOWERS AND A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF PR. THE REST
OF THE WEEK...THE PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH...SOME MORNING
SHOWERS AFFECTING THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS FOLLOWED BY
LOCALIZED SHALLOW CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR EACH AFTERNOON.

FOR NEXT WEEK...AN EASTERLY PERTURBATION WILL MOVE MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE ISLANDS ON SUNDAY...HAVING LITTLE IMPACT OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. MORE SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNING. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH THE WAVE PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...VCSH ARE EXPECTED OVER TIST...TISX...AND TJSJ THROUGH AT
LEAST 09/18Z. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER TJMZ AND TJPS FROM 09/18-09/22Z.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...MARINERS CAN EXPECT WINDS OF AROUND 15 KNOTS AND SEAS
BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 91 78 / 30 20 30 20
STT 89 78 89 78 / 30 20 40 20
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15726
1897. Tropicsweatherpr
10:23 AM GMT on July 08, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
449 AM AST WED JUL 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW/TUTT WILL LINGER NEAR BAHAMAS/CUBA THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. AT MID LEVELS...RIDGE PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL
REGION...MAINTAINING A DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLANDS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ANOTHER PULSE OF SAHARAN DUST WILL MOVE OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY KEEPING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS LOW FOR
PUERTO RICO AND USVI.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CONCENTRATIONS OF SAHARAN DUST WILL INCREASE TODAY...
PRODUCING HAZY SKIES AND SOMEWHAT REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. AS THIS DRY AND DUSTY AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE ISLANDS
AND THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS SUSTAINING A STRONG CAP INVERSION...
THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR MOST OF PR/USVI TODAY.
SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL ADVECT OVER THE REGION LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY... RESULTING IN A BRIEF INCREASE IN TRADE WIND SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH...MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN JUST BELOW NORMAL MOST OF THE WEEK...SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
WILL LIKELY INDUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF WESTERN PR EACH AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL BE SHALLOW AS MID LEVEL RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE REGION.

FOR NEXT WEEK...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
ISLANDS ON SUNDAY...HAVING LITTLE OR NO IMPACT OVER PR AND USVI.
MORE SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE ON TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED SHRA POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND JMZ AFT 08/17Z.
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST
AT 10-20KT.

&&

.MARINE...LOCALLY FRESH WINDS WILL KEEP CHOPPY SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING ON THURSDAY. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS AROUND 15 KT AND SEAS OF 3-5 FT CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE
SECOND PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 90 78 / 20 20 20 20
STT 90 80 90 80 / 20 20 20 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15726
1896. Tropicsweatherpr
10:12 AM GMT on July 07, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
447 AM AST TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. UPPER TROUGH TO THE
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA WILL MEANDER CLOSE TO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. AFTER THE WAVE PASSES...SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR
RETURNS TO THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME SHOWERS WERE DETECTED BY DOPPLER RADAR
OVERNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. VERY LITTLE SHOWER
ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND AREAS. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL
PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. NO WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION. LOCAL AREA
CONTINUES UNDER THE DOMINANCES OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CREATING
SUBSIDENCE AIR...LIMITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS
LOCATED NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...WILL CREATE SOME FAVORABLE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS TO ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTION OF PUERTO RICO.

FOR TOMORROW...A DENSE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST WILL ENCOMPASS THE
LOCAL REGION AND WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS AREA OF VERY
DRY AIR WILL LIMIT EVEN MORE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. FOR FRIDAY...AN AREA OF MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WINDS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...INCREASING SOMEWHAT THE CHANCES OF
RAINFALL. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE MOST OF LOCAL FLYING AREA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN PUERTO
RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDS POSSIBLE
IN AND AROUND TJMZ/TJBQ BETWEEN 17-21Z. ELSEWHERE...NO SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 10-20KT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 88 79 / 30 20 20 20
STT 89 79 89 79 / 20 20 20 10
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15726
1895. Tropicsweatherpr
10:41 AM GMT on July 06, 2015
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
506 AM AST MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...PATCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE REGION LATER TODAY. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH
OF THE AREA TUEDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A PATCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVED OVERNIGHT
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SOME SHOWERS WERE
NOTED...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND OVER THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE SHOWERS MOVED QUICKLY...WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS.

A GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WITH SOME HAZY
SKIES AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY...HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE.
ANOTHER AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS FORECAST TO AFFECT REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST COMPUTER GUIDANCE INDICATED CHANCES OF
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS.
PASSING SHRA WILL MOVE IN AND AROUND TNCM/TKPK...TIST/TISX AND
TJSJ THROUGH MID-MORNING...06/14Z. THEN...ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE OVER
WEST PR BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 15-20KT.

&&

.MARINE...LOCAL BUOY ARE SHOWING HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE DIMINISHING
ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO
EXPIRE AT 11 AM THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH A PATCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA...DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION
LATER TODAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WAS
ISSUED FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTH COAST
OF PUERTO RICO.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 89 80 / 40 10 30 20
STT 90 79 89 79 / 30 20 20 20
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15726
1894. Tropicsweatherpr
10:25 AM GMT on July 05, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
441 AM AST SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A CUT-OFF LOW NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO FLORIDA BY FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL
CUT-OFF ON THURSDAY AND DRIFT TO NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...THE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE SUB-
TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL BECOME DIVIDED AROUND 45 WEST LONGITUDE BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST TO ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A MODERATE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE
MID LATITUDE ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN BY MID WEEK AND THE STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL ABATE OVER THE AREA. A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER FOLLOWING SUNDAY OR
MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE FEW SHOWERS THAT FORMED WERE VERY LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...EVEN OVER THE LOCAL WATERS OWING TO THE DRIER AIR
ALOFT AND THE STRONG WINDS AROUND THE INVERSION. THIS DRIER AIR
WILL SEE A WEAK MOISTURE INTRUSION VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THAT
WILL LEAD TO A FEW MORE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS WELL AS SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN THE VISIBILITIES AS THE SAHARAN DUST IS TEMPORARILY
PUSHED TO THE SOUTH.

PRESENTLY THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT APPROACHES ON MONDAY WITH A WEAK
TROUGH AHEAD OF IT IS NOT CARRYING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND SO EXPECT ONLY A LIMITED INCREASE IN THE PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION...AND THAT ONLY OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BECOME SCATTERED
OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE COASTS OF PUERTO RICO WILL
LIKELY RECEIVE CONSIDERABLY LESS RAINFALL THAN THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS. FROM MID WEEK...ON THE AXIS OF THE NEW TUTT FORMING TO
OUR NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA. WITH UNFAVORABLE
CONVERGENCE...OR AT LEAST A LACK OF DIVERGENCE...THUS HELD OVER
THE AREAIN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE...RAINFALL CHANCES ARE HELD TO A
MINIMUM FOR MOST THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. ON FRIDAY LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE IMPROVES JUST ENOUGH TO YIELD A SLIGHT BUMP IN THE
POPS...BUT WILL NOT YIELD MORE THAN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE NEXT WAVE AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE OCCURS
A WEEK FROM SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE AREA
LATER TODAY AS THE WIND SURGE FROM THE LAST TROPICAL WAVE ABATES
AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS DIVIDED AND WEAKENS.
WINDS TEND TO DIMINISH UNTIL LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH 06/02Z. SOME HAZE IS PRESENT BUT WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SHRA WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...BUT A FEW MAY MANAGE TO
FORM IN WRN PR AFT 05/17Z TODAY. WINDS ALF WILL DIMINISH FROM ESE
20 TO 40 KNOTS TO GENERALLY ENE 10 TO 30 KTS TONIGHT. STRONGEST
WINDS NEAR FL070. SHRA WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFT 05/17Z THROUGH
06/04Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL ALL BE DOWN BY
MONDAY MORNING ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MODELS SHOW DIMINISHING MOISTURE AND WINDS OF 30
TO 40 KNOTS BETWEEN 3 AND 15 KFT TODAY...SUNDAY. LESS
CLOUDINESS...BUT CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A
HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER SITUATION AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL TO 35
TO 45 PERCENT AND WINDS EXCEED 18 MPH IN PARTS OF THE SOUTH COAST
OF PUERTO RICO. WILL RE-ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR 1100-1700
AST TODAY. MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 80 90 80 / 10 40 40 30
STT 89 79 89 77 / 10 30 30 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15726
1893. Tropicsweatherpr
10:31 AM GMT on July 03, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
527 AM AST FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE
JUST NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN IT WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT OVER TO FLORIDA BY SATURDAY. AS IT DOES SO LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO AROUND 20 DEGREES
NORTH NORTH OF PUERTO RICO TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS THE SUB TROPICAL
ATLANTIC WILL BE DIVIDED IN HALF NEAR 45 WEST MID WEEK NEXT WEEK
BY A STRONG LOW PRESSURE EAST OF MAINE. MID LEVELS REMAIN QUITE
DRY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKEN HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. A PATCH OF MOISTURE
WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS FORMED AFTER MIDNIGHT AND STREAMED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND INTO EASTERN PUERTO RICO
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MADE IT AS FAR WEST AS CAROLINA.
AMOUNTS WERE VERY LIGHT OWING TO SIZE AND SPEED AT WHICH THEY WERE
MOVING...ABOUT 28 KNOTS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE DURING THE DAY BUT THERE WAS NO CONSISTENCY IN WHERE THE
MODELS PLACED THE BEST PRECIPITATION OR HOW MUCH CHANCE WAS TO
OCCUR. SO BEST ESTIMATE WILL BE SCATTERED POPS FROM EL YUNQUE TO
WESTERN PUERTO RICO THOUGH AGAIN AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. MAIN PROBLEM WITH GENERATING
SHOWERS ARE THE DRY MID LEVELS THAT PERSIST...THE STRONG
WINDS...UP TO 31 KNOTS...IN AND NEAR A STRONG INVERSION AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES AND SO WILL
CONSIDER EVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST OF AROUND 30 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO RATHER GENEROUS AND
SHOWERS SHOULD END AROUND SUNSET IN THE INTERIOR AND WEST. ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...BUT
CHANCES THERE AND ON THE NORTHEAST AND EAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO
WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE RIDING
ON THE FRESH TRADE WINDS RIDES BY. DRYING BEGINS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
EXPECTED IN THE USUAL DIURNAL PATTERN.

CURRENTLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE IMPROVES LITTLE NEXT WEEK AND HENCE
THE CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN...EVEN DURING THE WAVE ON TUESDAY...LESS
THAN USUAL. SAHARAN DUST WILL ALSO CONTINUE IN THE AREA. CURRENT
MODELS CONTINUE THIS PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS
TJSJ/TIST/TISX/TNCM/TKPK DURING THE MORNING HRS. FOLLOWED BY
ISOLD/SCT SHRA AT TJBQ/TJMZ AFT 03/18Z. MTN OBSCURATIONS AND
+SHRA/SHRA CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PR SOME OF THEM CAN REACH THE WESTERN TAF SITES.
EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AT 15 TO 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS WILL INCREASE UP TO 7 FEET OVER
THE WEEKEND AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE
EASTERN TIP OF AMZ715 AND AMZ725 SOUTH OF ANEGADA ISLAND SUNDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON MONDAY. UNTIL THEN
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE OR WILL GO UP IN ALL OUTER
WATERS AND PASSAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 90 79 / 20 40 40 20
STT 90 79 89 78 / 20 30 30 20
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15726
1892. Tropicsweatherpr
10:42 AM GMT on June 30, 2015
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
437 AM AST TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST
OF THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SAHARAN DUST WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER THE REGION. A TROPICAL ENTERING TO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING WILL PASS MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...INDUCING AND INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS THIS
MORNING DETECTED AND AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS JUST TO THE
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THIS MOISTURE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW (TUTT) NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. ANOTHER AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WAS DETECTED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN
WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. THE SAHARAN DUST OVER THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS
THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE REGION. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WAVE...THE UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH OF
THE REGION WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS BUT MOSTLY OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE TROPICAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH MOST OF ITS MOISTURE PASSING OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS SOUTH
OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE WAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO CAUSE AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION BUT NOT WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AN EXTENSIVE SAHARAN AIR LAYER ACROSS
MOST OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE LATE WEDNESDAY AND THEREAFTER. THIS
SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY...WHEN
ANOTHER WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION. NOT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVEN IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION IN THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OFFSHORE AND THRU USVI/LEEWARDS BUT
DECR THIS MRNG. VFR XCP MVFR IN SOME OF THE SHRA. SCT SHRA/TSRA THIS
AFT OVR PR/USVI WI MVFR PSBL TJMZ. VFR TONITE XCP MVFR IN SCT SHRA E
AND S PR TO USVI...AND TSRA PSBL ON S OFFSHORE WATERS. WIND BLW
FL100 E 15-25 KT BCMG ESE TDY CONT THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL
PASSAGES AND THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS
WILL BE UP TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 7 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 78 89 78 / 40 40 40 20
STT 89 79 89 79 / 40 40 40 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15726
1891. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
4:21 AM GMT on June 24, 2013
nigel20 has created a new entry.
1890. nigel20
6:45 PM GMT on June 23, 2013
Cuba Weather

2013-06-23 13:00 WEATHER ACTUAL. HAVANA CITY.
Mostly clear sky with plenty of sunshine. Very hot.

2013-06-23 03:00 WEATHER FORECAST. NATIONWIDE.

It will be a another very warm day with mostly sunny sky throughout Cuba. In the afternoon, the clouds will develop over the interior and southern areas bringing occasional showers and thunderstorms that will not be significant in the rest of the territory.

The highs will remain around 33 C (91 C) while overnight it will be between 24-27 C (75-81 F).
There will be some waves on the eastern coasts and calm sea in the rest of the country.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 9010
1889. nigel20
6:36 PM GMT on June 23, 2013
Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Services

ISSUED AT: 10:13AM
Date:Sunday 23rd of June 2013

Meteorologist: Sarah Sammy

FOR THE PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT:
:
Trinidad & Tobago:
Increased cloudiness accompanied by light to
moderate showers is expected in a few areas
interrupting otherwise predominantly hazy and
hot, yet breezy daytime conditions. Tonight is
expected to be initially clear yet hazy with a
light breeze, but cloudiness is expected to
increase towards midnight.

The Remainder of the Lesser Antilles:
Generally hot, sunny, breezy and hazy daytime
conditions are expected to transition into cool
and hazy nighttime conditions with a light breeze
expected at times.

NB: Relatively high wind speeds being
experienced currently may result in choppy sea
conditions being experienced at times.

SEAS: Normal to Moderate
WAVES: 2.0 to 2.5mIN OPEN WATERS
Less than 1.0m IN SHLTD AREAS

Temperature Units:Celsius

FORECAST MAX TEMP.
Piarco: 33 Crown Point: 31
Tides ISSUED AT: 05:55PM
Date:Saturday 22nd of June 2013

Port of Spain HIGH 03:18am 04:31pm LOW 09:53am 09:55pm
Scarborough HIGH 02:55am 04:01pm LOW 09:37am 09:40pm
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 9010
1888. nigel20
6:30 PM GMT on June 23, 2013
Good afternoon all!

Tropical Weather Discussion

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH AN UPPER LOW N
OF E CUBA TO S OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 17N84W COVERING THE NW
CARIBBEAN. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT FEATURE IN
THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR
9N76W ALONG 11N81W TO ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W AND IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND W PANAMA S OF 11N
W OF 81W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC IS
GIVING THE E CARIBBEAN MOSTLY S TO SW FLOW ALOFT WHICH IS
ADVECTING MOISTURE ALOFT. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING
IN SOME LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY WITHIN A 90 NM OF LINE
FROM PUERTO RICO ALONG 16N74W TO NICARAGUA NEAR 12N83W. A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO E CARIBBEAN MON REACHING THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE AND THE W CARIBBEAN BY THU. A SECOND
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN WED AND THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THU.

HISPANIOLA...

THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN/TROPICAL ATLC IS
DRAWING MOISTURE ALOFT OVER THE ISLAND AND IS GENERATING SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER
LOW N OF E CUBA REMAINING STATIONARY THROUGH MON BEFORE PULLING
NE AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER
THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY ON MON AND TUE AS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN S OF HISPANIOLA. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE ON
LATE WED AHEAD OF A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE THAT WILL ENTER THE E
CARIBBEAN WED INCREASING SHOWERS FOR HISPANIOLA THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 9010
1887. Tropicsweatherpr
10:20 AM GMT on June 23, 2013
Good morning. Good weather is expected in PR today with only a few showers. Two Tropical Waves will increase the showers this week.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
501 AM AST SUN JUN 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF THE AREA WILL RELOCATE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDWEEK. SUBEQUATORIAL UPPER RIDGE
WILL DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN BASIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS
CARRIED BY THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE WINDWARD
SIDE OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST NOON AST. A PULSE OF SAHARAN DUST
IS FORECAST TO ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. TWO TROPICAL
WAVES WILL BRING AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH IS BRINGING LAYERS
OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS THIS MORNING. DOPPLER RADAR DATA
HAVE BEEN INDICATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AFFECTING MOST
OF THE LOCAL WATERS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SINCE MIDNIGHT. THIS WET
TRADE WIND PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN...A PULSE OF SAHARAN DUST SURROUNDING BY A DRIER
AIR MASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AFTER 18Z... AND
SPREAD OVER PUERTO RICO THIS EVENING. WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD
START BECOMING WETTER TOMORROW THROUGH MID-WEEK AS TWO TROPICAL
WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE FIRST WAVE WILL
BRING A MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUDS/SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLANDS ON
MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND WAVE ON
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SQUALLY WEATHER CONDITIONS IS
ON WEDNESDAY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE. IN
GENERAL...EXPECT WETTER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME VCSH EXPECTED ON AND OFF DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS AL TAF SITES. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER TJMZ LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND SEAS BETWEEN 3-6 FEET WILL
PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS/SEAS WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY...WHEN A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE REGIONAL WATERS. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
REQUIRED ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 78 87 77 / 60 40 60 30
STT 87 80 87 80 / 50 40 60 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15726
1886. nigel20
5:47 PM GMT on June 22, 2013
Dominica Meteorological Service

Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles

Issued: 12:00 PM on Saturday, June 22, 2013

A temporary improvement in conditions is expected during the next 24 hours as a ridge of high pressure is now the dominant feature. This will be followed by the approach of a westward moving tropical wave by tomorrow afternoon through early Monday. Most of the significant shower activity associated with this wave is expected across the extreme southern section of the island chain.

Meanwhile, another westward moving tropical wave located in the Atlantic Ocean is expected to approach the area by Tuesday.

Persons in areas prone to flooding, landslides and falling rocks should exercise caution.

Moderate sea conditions are expected during the next 24 hours with swells peaking near 7.0 feet.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 9010
1885. nigel20
5:41 PM GMT on June 22, 2013
Belize National Meteorological Service

Date:

SATURDAY 22ND JUNE 2013

Time:

5:00 AM

General Situation:

MOISTURE IS GRADUALLY DECREASING ACROSS THE AREA...

24hr Forecast:

SUNNY WITH SOME CLOUDY SPELLS TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GENERALLY ISOLATED.

Winds:

EAST 10-20 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS.

Sea State:

MODERATE....BECOMING LOCALLY ROUGH AT TIMES. ***SMALL CRAFT CAUTION IN EFFECT***

Outlook:

THROUGH TO MONDAY MORNING:PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWERS.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 9010
1884. nigel20
5:41 PM GMT on June 22, 2013
Yes, 62901 and thanks for visiting...Good afternoon friends

Tropical Weather Discussion

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN IS LARGELY INFLUENCE BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED NORTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N73W. THE TROUGH AXIS
DIPS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N77W
WITH ANOTHER WEAKER AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER JAMAICA NEAR 18N78W
TO OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THE AREAS WITHIN THE TROUGHING ARE RELATIVELY DRY AND
STABLE ALOFT WHICH IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
N OF 14N BETWEEN 72W-86W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
HOWEVER OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FROM 18N-
21N BETWEEN 79W-83W. OTHERWISE ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
TROUGH...NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES AND IS
PROVIDING FOR SUFFICIENT UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS SW OF A LINE FROM NORTHERN BELIZE
NEAR 18N88W TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W...INCLUDING INLAND
PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...AND COSTA RICA. A TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 81W WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AND INCREASE CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION FOR CENTRAL
AMERICA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE
FROM OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA TOWARDS THE MONA PASSAGE AND
PUERTO RICO. MOST OF THIS MOISTURE REMAINS AS INCREASED CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED LOW-
TOPPED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY N OF 12N E OF
72W...THAT STRETCH NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ADJACENT WATERS OF THE
SW NORTH ATLC.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY CONDITIONS REMAIN RELATIVELY TRANQUIL THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE ISLAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE ISLAND NEAR 21N73W WITH PRIMARILY
MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOCATED EAST OF A TROUGH AXIS
WHICH EXTENDS JUST WEST OF THE ISLAND. GLOBAL MODEL DATA
INDICATES THE LOW WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND LIFT
GRADUALLY NORTHWARD WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMING
DOMINANT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL FAVOR BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED DUE TO
PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY.

NHC
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 9010
1883. 62901IL
1:52 PM GMT on June 22, 2013
nigel, you've kept this blog up for over a year.
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 2716
1882. Tropicsweatherpr
10:29 AM GMT on June 22, 2013
Good morning. Good weather is expected this weekend in PR with only a few showers. Two Tropical Waves will increase the showers next week.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
549 AM AST SAT JUN 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC/EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER HISPANOLA
NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS CARRIED BY THE TRADE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY
DURING NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. ANOTHER PULSE OF SAHARAN DUST IS FORECAST
TO ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY. TWO TROPICAL WAVES WILL BRING
AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION MONDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE/HISPANOLA. THE
UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS SUSTAINING A DENSE CI/CS
CLOUDS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. AT LOW LEVEL...
DOPPLER RADAR HAVE BEEN INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS CARRIED BY THE
TRADE WINDS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
AS WELL AS THE SURROUNDING WATERS OF VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS SINCE MIDNIGHT. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS PLENTY OF
LOW CLOUDS/SHOWERS UPSTREAM OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS SUGGESTING THE SAME
NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK REFLECTS A RECONFIGURATION OF THE SYNOPTIC
WEATHER PATTERN...STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK. FIRST...A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE WILL BRING A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLANDS ON MONDAY.
SECOND...A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION
WEDNESDAY...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR ACTIVE AND SQUALLY WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IN GENERAL...EXPECT WETTER CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 22/17Z. VCSH SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS
TIST...TISX...AND TJSJ DURING THE MORNING HOURS. BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
TJMZ LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND SEAS BETWEEN 3 AND 6 FEET
WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
THE WINDS/SEAS IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...WHEN A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 88 78 / 20 40 40 40
STT 88 78 87 80 / 30 40 40 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15726
1881. nigel20
4:51 PM GMT on June 21, 2013
Meteorological Department Curaçao

Weather Forecast for Bonaire and Curacao valid until Saturday midday 12:00 l.t., June 22, 2013.

Issued: Friday June 21, 2013 06:00 l.t. (10:00 UTC ).

Weather:
Today through Saturday midday: Partly cloudy, during the morning hours temporarily mostly cloudy with a chance of a local shower.

Forecast high will be 33ºC and the low will be 27ºC.

Sunrise will occur at 06:12 and sunset at 19:03.

Winds:
Easterly and moderate to fresh; force 4 to 5 (20 to 39 km/hr, 11 to 21 knots).

Occasionally strong to possibly near gale in gusts; force 6 to 7 (40 to 61 km/hr, 22 to 33 knots).

Synopsis: A temporary increase in clouds could induce a brief local shower over parts of Curacao and Bonaire, especially during the morning hours. Otherwise, a generally dry weather pattern will prevail. Furthermore, the wind regime will continue to be moderate to strong during the next 24 hours.

Sea conditions: Generally moderate 3 to 7 feet waves. Locally fairly rough seas.
Significant tropical weather systems:None

Special features: None.

Outlook until Sunday morning: Generally partly cloudy

Forecaster: Figueroa
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 9010
1880. nigel20
4:46 PM GMT on June 21, 2013
Tropical Weather Discussion

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
32N67W-TO-HISPANIOLA-TO-NORTHERN COLOMBIA TROUGH
SPANS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL
EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 14N TO 20N TO THE WEST
OF 80W.

PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL
WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS OF THE COUNTRIES OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N/9N BETWEEN 74W IN
COLOMBIA...INTO CENTRAL PANAMA...BEYOND SOUTHERN
COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LINE 9N77W AT THE
COLOMBIA COAST AND 14N83W AT THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF NICARAGUA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN
67W AND 80W.

HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N67W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 26N71W...TO A
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W JUST OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST
OF HAITI...TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA NEAR
9N77W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG FROM 24N TO 25N BETWEEN 68W AND 70W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND WESTERN CUBA. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 60W
AND 80W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 21/0000 UTC FOR BERMUDA WAS 0.36 OF AN
INCH...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLE.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB AND FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE
TROUGH WILL BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE. THE 250 MB
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE IN PLACE ACROSS HISPANIOLA
FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO. BROAD
SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST NEAR
HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NHC
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 9010

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APRSWXNET
Kingston,
Elevation: 731 ft
Temperature: 79.0 °F
Dew Point: 74.0 °F
Humidity: 84%
Wind: 2.0 mph from the NE
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Updated: 12:32 AM EST on September 02, 2015

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