JUNE TROPICAL STORMS (1851-2010):

By: ncforecaster , 9:40 AM GMT on June 03, 2011

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Hey everyone,

This particular blog entry will continue our examination of the entire historical record (1851-present), with a focus on "June" Tropical Cyclone (TC) activity throughout the Atlantic Basin. A "June" TC will be characterized as one that initially developed at some point during the month of June (i.e. June 1-June 30). Those TC's (shown by year) that achieved hurricane (H) and/or "major" hurricane (MH) intensity will be designated by bold case print in the following respective sections.

ALL TROPICAL STORMS:

Note: Those Tropical cyclones that achieved hurricane intensity will be identified by bold case print.

3 = 1886, 1909 (1 H), 1936 (1 H), and 1968 (2 H).

2 = 1871, 1902 (1 H), 1906 (1 H), 1957 (1 MH), 1959 (1 H), 1982 (1 STS/1 H), 1986 (1 H), and 2005.

1 = 1851, 1854, 1857, 1858, 1862, 1865, 1867, 1873, 1880, 1887, 1888, 1889, 1892, 1893, 1894, 1899, 1901, 1904, 1907, 1912, 1913, 1921, 1922, 1923, 1924, 1929, 1931, 1933, 1934 (MH?), 1939, 1945 (MH), 1946, 1954, 1956, 1958, 1960, 1964, 1965, 1966 (MH), 1972, 1974 (STS), 1975, 1979, 1981, 1989, 1993, 1995, 1996, 1997 (STS), 1999, 2001, 2003, 2006, 2007, and 2010.



This is a visible satellite image of H Alex (at peak intensity) just before it comes ashore along the NE Gulf Coast of MX, on June 30, 2010. It is the most recent June TC of at least Tropical storm (TS) intensity to develop anywhere within the Atlantic Basin. It is also the most recent TC of hurricane intensity to form in the month of June as well.

0 = 1852, 1853, 1855, 1856, 1859, 1860, 1861, 1863, 1864, 1866, 1868, 1869, 1870, 1872, 1874, 1875, 1876, 1877, 1878, 1879, 1881, 1882, 1883, 1884, 1885, 1890, 1891, 1895, 1896, 1897, 1898, 1900, 1903, 1905, 1908, 1910, 1911, 1914, 1915, 1916, 1917, 1918, 1919, 1920, 1925, 1926, 1927, 1928, 1930, 1932, 1935, 1937, 1938, 1940, 1941, 1942, 1943, 1944, 1947, 1948, 1949, 1950, 1951, 1952, 1953, 1955, 1961, 1962, 1963, 1967, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1973, 1976, 1977, 1978, 1980, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1987, 1988, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1994, 1998, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2008, and 2009.

Note: Storm #2 of 1916 (MH), storm #1 of 1994 (TS Alberto), and storm #2 of 1997 (TS Ana) were each a late "June" TC that didn't intensify into a TS until "July".

In addition: Storm #1 1857 (TS), storm #3 1886 (H), storm #2 1933 (H), storm #1 1975 (TS Amy), storm #2 1981 (TS Bret), storm #2 2003 (TS Bill), and storm #1 2010 (H Alex) were each a June TC of either TS or H intensity that at least retained TS intensity into July.

ALL U.S. TROPICAL STORM LANDFALLS:

Note: These totals combine both Tropical Storm and Hurricane landfalls (i.e. all named storms). Hurricanes will be shown in bold case print.

3 = 1886 (3 H).

2 = 1871, 1902, 1906 (1 H), 1909 (1 H), 1936 (1 H), 1957 (1 MH?), 1968, and 1982 (1 STS).

1 = 1851, 1854, 1865, 1867, 1873, 1880, 1887, 1888, 1889, 1892, 1893, 1899, 1901, 1907, 1912, 1913, 1921, 1923, 1929, 1931, 1934 (MH?), 1939, 1945, 1946, 1953, 1954, 1956, 1958, 1960, 1965, 1966, 1972, 1974 (STS), 1986, 1989, 1993, 1995, 1996, 2001, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2010.

Note: Storm #1 of 1982 (H Alberto) was a H that delivered TS-force conditions to the Lower Fl. Keys of the U.S.

ALL U.S. HURRICANE LANDFALLS:

3 = 1886

2 = N/A.

1 = 1851, 1854, 1867, 1888, 1906, 1909, 1913, 1921, 1929, 1934 (MH?), 1936, 1945, 1957 (MH?), 1966, 1972, and 1986.



This is a visible satellite image of H Bonnie from June 26, 1986-as it makes landfall in SE TX. It remains the most recent TC of H intensity to strike the U.S. coastline during the month of June.

ALL U.S. MAJOR HURRICANE LANDFALLS:

1 = 1934 (?) and 1957 (?).



This is a historic radar image of category four H Audrey (near peak intensity) as it bore down on the upper TX and SW La. coastlines of the U.S., on the morning of June 27, 1957. It remains the most intense June TC to ever develop in the Atlantic Basin during the month of June, as well as the most intense June TC to strike the U.S. shoreline.

INTERESTING FACTS:

1) All Atlantic Basin Tropical Storms:

a) There were a total of 83 TS or STS systems that developed in the Atlantic Basin during the 160 year period of 1851-2010. This equates to a statistical mean of one TC of STS or TS intensity developing during the month of June every 1.9 years.

In addition: Storm #1 of 2008 (TS Arthur) was a May TS that maintained TS intensity into June.

b) There were a total of 32 TC's that achieved hurricane (H) intensity during the aforementioned 160 year period. That equates to one June H every 5 years on average.

c) There were a total of 4 (possibly only 3) June TC's that ultimately achieved "major" hurricane intensity at some point during the month of June. These figures would constitute a statistical mean of one June major H traversing some portion of the Atlantic Basin every 40 years.

d) Hurricane Audrey holds the record as the most intense H to ever develop during the month of June. It intensified into a category four hurricane at 8 am CDT on June 27, 1957-just before it struck the U.S. coastline near the TX/La. border. At the time, it had a MSW of 145 mph and a corresponding barometric pressure of 945 mb. Moreover, it also holds the record as the most recent "major" hurricane to strike the U.S. coastline during the month of June

e) Hurricane Alex of June 2010 is the most recent June TC to have developed within the Atlantic Basin. It achieved TS intensity at 5 am EDT on June 26, 2010. It would go on to become a very large and powerful category two H-with a MSW of 110 mph and a lowest B.P. of 947 mb-just before it crossed the NE Gulf Coast of Mexico at 9 pm CDT on June 30, 2010.

f) Hurricane Alex is also the most recent TC of hurricane intensity to develop in the Atlantic basin, as well.

g) The three longest periods of consecutive years without a TC developing anywhere in the Atlantic Basin during the month of June are 1874-1880, 1914-1921, and 1947-1954. In addition, 93 out of the 160 hurricane seasons (58%) in the historical record, didn't have a TS form during the entire month of June.

h) The 1886, 1909, 1936, and 1968 Atlantic Basin hurricane seasons are shown to have been the most prolific for "June" TC formations-with 3 each, respectively.

i) The 1886 Atlantic basin hurricane season holds the record for spawning the most hurricanes-during the month of June-with 3.

j) The 1934, 1945, 1957, and 1966 H seasons each spawned 1 MH during their respective seasons.

2) All U.S. Tropical Storm Landfalls:

a) There were 63 June TS or STS systems that made a U.S. landfall (or strike) during the aforementioned 160 year period. This equates to one June TS landfall per 2.54 years. Astonishingly, a full 76% of all Atlantic Basin storms made landfall in the U.S. This is a reflection of the primary breeding grounds being located in such close proximity to the U.S. coastline.

b) There were 19 hurricanes that made a direct strike on the U.S. coastline during the month of June. This equates to one land falling June hurricane every 8.4 years. Furthermore, a full 59% of all Atlantic Basin hurricanes struck the U.S. coastline.

c) There were 2 "major" hurricanes that made landfall in the U.S. during the month of June. They are the 1934 Louisiana category 3 storm and category four hurricane Audrey of 1957. That said, preliminary reanalysis conducted by HRD suggests that both storms could be downgraded below "major" hurricane intensity. If so, this would mean that there hasn't been any documented "major" U.S. hurricane landfalls for the month of June.

d) As a result of the aforementioned reanalysis, it is difficult to determine which June hurricane was the most intense when it struck the U.S. shoreline. That being said, seven different hurricanes are currently listed in HURDAT as making a U.S. landfall at category two intensity or greater. They are category four hurricane Audrey of 1957 (145/945), category three Louisiana hurricane of 1934 (115/962), 3 category two hurricanes that made landfall in 1886 at the same exact intensity (100/973), category two Texas hurricane of 1909 (100/972), and category two hurricane Alma of 1966 (100/982). This would equate to a category two or greater landfall every 22.7 years.

e) Hurricane Bonnie is the most recent June hurricane to have made a landfall on the U.S. shoreline. It made landfall between Sea Rim Park and High Island, TX. at 5 am CDT on June 26, 1986, as an 85 mph/990 mb category one hurricane. Based on the historical record, the U.S. is well overdue for another June hurricane strike.

f) The most recent "June" TS to make a direct U.S. landfall was TS Alberto of 2006. It struck the NW Florida coastline near Adams Beach as a 45 mph TS at 1230 pm EDT on June 13, 2006. Based on the historical average, we are currently overdue for another U.S. TS landfall as well. That being said, H Alex of 2010 brought TS-force sustained winds to extreme south TX. during the late evening hours of June 30, 2010-as it barreled ashore in NE MX., as a strong category two H.

g) The longest periods of consecutive years without a land falling U.S. TS (during the month of June) include 1855-1865, 1874-1880, 1881-1887, 1914-1921, 1947-1953, and 1975-1982. In addition, 108 out of the 160 H seasons (67.5%) didn't have a U.S. TS strike.

h) The 1886 H season had the most land falling Tropical storms-for the month of June-with 3.

i) The 1886 Atlantic basin hurricane season also leads the way for U.S. hurricane landfalls-during the month of June-with 3.

j) The 1934 and 1957 H seasons each had 1 U.S. land falling hurricane that came ashore at MH intensity.

FUTURE BLOG ENTRIES:

I will post additional blog entries (similar to this one) for the other respective months of a calendar year. With that in mind, the next entry should be a thorough examination of the entire climatological record for "July" TC's in the Atlantic Basin.

As always, thank you so much for taking the time to read and/or post in my blogs. I hope you have a great rest of the day!:)

Most sincerely,
Tony

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8. ncforecaster
8:35 AM GMT on August 17, 2011
LIST OF ALL JUNE U.S. HURRICANES:

1) 1-6/25/1851$ 2100Z 28.2N 96.8W 80 1 --- (974) ---- --- BTX1
2) 1-6/26/1854$ 1200Z 26.2N 97.0W 70 1 --- (982) ---- --- ATX1
3) 1-6/22/1867 1400Z 32.9N 79.7W 70 1 --- (985) ---- --- SC1
4) 1-6/14/1886 1600Z 29.6N 94.2W 85 2 --- (970) ---- --- CTX2,LA2 ---
5) 2-6/21/1886 1100Z 30.1N 84.0W 85 2 --- (970) ---- --- AFL2,IGA1 ---
6) 3-6/30/1886 2100Z 29.7N 85.2W 85 2 --- (970) ---- --- AFL2,IGA1 ---
7) 1-6/17/1888 0600Z 28.7N 95.7W 70 1 --- (982) ---- --- BTX1
8) 2-6/17/1906 0300Z 24.7N 81.1W 70 1 --- (986) 1012 300 BFL1,CFL1 ---
8) 2-6/17/1906 0800Z 25.2N 80.7W 75 1 25 979 1012 300 CFL1 ---
9) 2-6/29/1909 1700Z 26.1N 97.2W 85 2 --- 972 1011 275 ATX2 ---
10) 1-6/28/1913 0100Z 27.1N 97.4W 65 1 --- (986) 1009 200 ATX1 ---
11) 1-6/22/1921 1800Z 28.5N 95.9W 80 1 15 980 1011 225 BTX1,CTX1 ---
12) 1-6/28/1929 2100Z 28.3N 96.4W 80 1 10 982 1007 150 BTX1 ---

13) 1934 Jun LA, 3 3 962 ----- -----
14) 1936 Jun TX, S1 1 987 ----- -----
15) 1945 Jun FL, NW1 1 985 ----- -----
16) 1957 Jun TX, N4; LA, 4 4 945 ----- Audrey
17) 1966 Jun FL, NW2 2 982 ----- Alma
18) 1972 Jun FL, NW1; NY, 1; CT, 1 1 980 ----- Agnes

19) 2-6/26/1986 0900Z 29.5N 94.0W 75 1 --- 990 ---- --- CTX1 Bonnie
Member Since: May 17, 2006 Posts: 108 Comments: 1376
7. ncforecaster
3:32 AM GMT on July 01, 2011
Update Needed:

The 2011 H season has produced TS Arlene. It became a TS on June 28, 2011 and achieved its maximum intensity of 65 mph-with a lowest B.P. of 993 mb-at landfall on the NE coast of mainland Mexico.
Member Since: May 17, 2006 Posts: 108 Comments: 1376
6. ncforecaster
6:04 AM GMT on June 29, 2011
Quoting quasigeostropic:
Tony, wishing you a great father's day. I'm sure you are a wonderful dad;) God bless you in the coming years.


Hey Alec,

Thank you so much for the incredibly thoughtful post!:) I love being a "Daddy", and my kids mean more to me than anything else in this entire world! I am sure you will be absolutely wonderful and loving Father when God blesses you-one day-with a child of your own!:)

Thanks again, and I look forward to catching up with you very soon!:)

Your friend,
Tony
Member Since: May 17, 2006 Posts: 108 Comments: 1376
5. quasigeostropic
4:37 AM GMT on June 19, 2011
Tony, wishing you a great father's day. I'm sure you are a wonderful dad;) God bless you in the coming years.
Member Since: November 20, 2007 Posts: 21 Comments: 192
4. ncforecaster
5:43 AM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting nocaneindy:
As always, just great!



Hi Jeremy,

Thank you so much for the very kind words, and I look forward to talking with you more throughout the season!:)

Most sincerely,
Tony
Member Since: May 17, 2006 Posts: 108 Comments: 1376
3. nocaneindy
8:37 AM GMT on June 04, 2011
As always, just great!

Member Since: September 21, 2007 Posts: 34 Comments: 516
2. ncforecaster
8:24 AM GMT on June 04, 2011
Preliminary reanalysis changes to the data listed above.

1) New TC's:

N/A

2) Intensity Changes to Existing TC's:

a) Storm #1 (6/20-7/4/1945) category two H (100 mph)-downgraded from 115 mph category three H.

Source: http://scholarlyrepository.miami.edu/cgi/viewconte nt.cgi?article=1072&context=oa_theses

b) Storm #1 (6/4-6/18/1934) category two H (100 mph)-downgraded from 115 mph category three H.

Source: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/10_US_hurrican es.pdf

(3) U.S. TC Landfalls:

a) Storm #1 (6/16/1934) category two H (100 mph/966 mb)-downgraded from 115 mph category three H.

Source: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/10_US_hurrican es.pdf
Member Since: May 17, 2006 Posts: 108 Comments: 1376
1. ncforecaster
9:54 AM GMT on June 03, 2011
RESOURCES USED FOR THIS RESEARCH:

The vast majority of the data contained in this particular blog entry was found in the historical record at the HRD Reanalysis page.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/Data_Storm.ht ml

To ensure absolute accuracy, I meticulously reviewed and examined every seasonal track map in the entire database (160 in total). I also examined HURDAT for each applicable TC as well. It was a very exhaustive and tedious process, but one that I felt was essential in order to ensure the accurate historical record.

Hope you enjoy!:)

Tony

P.S. If you happen to notice any prospective errors I might have made-with respect to the data I have compiled-please don't hesitate to bring them to my attention.

All U.S. Tropical Storm Landfalls/Strikes (1931-2010):

1) Storm #1 (TS) of 1931.
2) Storm #1 (TS) of 1936.
3) Storm #1 (TS) of 1939.
4) Storm #1 (TS) of 1946.
5) Storm #1 (TS Alice) of 1953.
6) Storm #1 (TS Alice-I) of 1954.
7) Storm #1 (TS) of 1956.
8) Storm #1 (TS) of 1957.
9) Storm #1 (TS Alma-I) of 1958.
10) Storm #1 (TS) of 1960.
11) Storm #1 (TS) of 1965.
12) Storm #1 (TS Abby) of 1968.
13) Storm #3 (TS Candy) of 1968.
14) Storm #1 (STS) of 1974.
15) Storm #1 (H Alberto-offshore) of 1982.*
16) Storm #2 (STS) of 1982.
17) Storm #1 (TS Allison) of 1989.
18) Storm #1 (TS Arlene) of 1993.
19) Storm #1 (TS Allison) of 1995.
20) Storm #1 (TS Arthur) of 1996.
21) Storm #1 (TS Allison) of 2001.
22) Storm #2 (TS Bill) of 2003.
23) Storm #1 (TS Arlene) of 2005.
24) Storm #1 (TS Alberto) of 2006.
25) Storm #2 (TS Barry-offshore) of 2007.*
26) Storm #1 (H Alex-I) of 2010.

I = Signifies that TS Alice of 1954, TS Alma of 1958, and H Alex of 2010 each made landfall in NE MX., but brought TS-force conditions to SE TX.

* = Denotes a hurricane that brought TS-force sustained winds to a portion of the U.S. coastline, but did not make a U.S. landfall.

Note: All U.S. TS landfalls for the period of 1851-1930 and 1983-2010 can be found here.
Member Since: May 17, 2006 Posts: 108 Comments: 1376

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