THE HURRICANE RECORD (1851-1900):
Hey Everyone,
This particular blog entry will focus on the first fifty years of the historical record (1851-1900) in regards to tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the North Atlantic Basin.
Important Notations Relative to the Era:
I should begin by pointing out that the vast majority of data contained in this study, was obtained from "HURDAT." In simplest terms, HURDAT is a "Hurricane Database" that contains a detailed record of all tropical storms (TS) and Hurricanes (H)-known to have developed somewhere within the North Atlantic Basin-which includes the Atlantic Ocean, Carribean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico-for the period of 1851 to the present. It is also the official record for all landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes known to have impacted the United States (U.S.) coastlines, as well. This database was initially created in support of the Apollo Space program in the 1960's, and contained six-hourly positions and intensities for all TCs that had been documented up until that time. Unfortunately, there were (and still are) many systematic and random errors within the database that needed to be corrected. As a result, researchers with the Hurricane Research Division (HRD) undertook the work to correct these "errors" through a project called: "The Atlantic Hurricane Database Re-analysis Project (HRP)."
The stated "objective" of the HRP can be found on the main page of its website here, and specifies the following: "The Atlantic Hurricane Database Re-analysis Project is an effort led by the Hurricane Research Division to extend and revise the OAR's North Atlantic hurricane database (or HURDAT). Going back to 1851 and revisiting storms in more recent years, information on tropical cyclones is revised using an enhanced collection of historical meteorological data in the context of today's scientific understanding of hurricane and analysis techniques."
The stated "Goal" of the HRP can also be found at the above link and entails the following: "The primary goal for this project is to provide an extended and corrected Atlantic hurricane database of individual tropical cyclone tracks and intensities for both the entire Atlantic basin as well as U.S. landfalling storms. This fits in well with the goals of NOAA and HRD to better understand variability of extreme events, such as tropical storms.
As result of these efforts, HURDAT has been extended back in time to 1851 (from its original starting point of 1886), and an extensive revision has been made to the database for all known TCs through the 1930 Atlantic Basin hurricane season, as of the time of this writing.
Limitations to the historical record for this Era:
Although the HRP has greatly improved the accuracy of HURDAT (and the associated historical record contained therein), there are some significant and inherent limitations that mitigate against a complete accounting of all TCs that have traversed the warm waters of the North Atlantic Basin, as well as all TCs that have impacted the U.S. coastline-throughout this period of record.
The biggest impediment to an accurate accounting of the number (and intensity) of TCs-as well as those that made a U.S. landfall-was the lack of resources available to detect their existence (and their true intensity). Unlike today, there were no geostationary or polar orbiting satellites to locate storms out over the open waters of the Atlantic. Recon flights into TCs had yet to be initiated, so an accurate estimation of a particular TCs intensity was greatly inhibited (likely underestimated). There also weren't any radar detection capabilities during this period of time, either. As a result, weather observers of the time had to rely on the sporadic data collected by ships at sea and/or the few observation sites that were unfortunate enough to find themselves in the path of one of these menacing storms. Even then, further complications existed. Without the access of radio transmission (unavailable until 1905), weather observers had to wait until ships had returned to port in order to review their respective ship logs. Worse yet, many more ships were unable to survive their encounter with these tropical terrors and the data was lost forever, along with the men who had taken it. In short, the detection of tropical storms and hurricanes was essentially limited to those TCs that affected ships at sea and/or those that impacted a populated land area. In other words, if there wasn't someone in the area where a respective TC happened to traverse, there could be no record of its existence.
The latter case mentioned above is problematic since many areas of the U.S. coastline was still very much sparsely populated. Case in point, one of the most hurricane prone areas of the U.S. coastline-Miami, Fl.-wasn't incorporated until 1896. Making matters worse-as far as a complete documentation of all TC landfalls is concerned-a small hurricane (like hurricanes Andrew and Bret) likely went undetected because of the confined area of damaging winds and the sparsity of the population along many areas of the U.S. coastline, during this period in time.
Taking all the aforementioned in to account, the researchers with the Hurricane Research Division estimate that the number of "missed" TCs (those likely unaccounted for in the historical record) range anywhere from 4-6 per year, for the period of 1851-1885. With the increase in ship traffic and population increases along coastal areas, the estimation of "missed" TCs-per season-decreases to a range of 3-4, for the period of 1886-1900.
As stated by Landsea, et. al. (in the "Documentation for 1851-1910 Alterations and Additions to the HURDAT Database), "By no means should the tropical cyclone record over the Atlantic Ocean be considered complete for either the frequency or intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes for the years of 1851 to 1910."
The authors go on to say, "However, more accurate and complete information is available for landfalling tropical cyclones along much of the United States coastline." That being said, they also note the following: "Because of the lack of continuously populated coastal regions over this era, this record represents an incomplete listing of the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones that have impacted the United States".
FASCINATING FACTS:
With all the aforementioned taken into consideration, let's take an extensive look at some of the most "fascinating facts" of this particular era, for tropical cyclone activity throughout the North Atlantic basin.
1) Total number of tropical cyclones (includes Subtropical Storms): 378 (an average of 7.54 per season).
2) Total number of hurricanes: 259 (an average of 5.22 per season).
3) Total number of "major" hurricanes: 60 (an average of 1.22 per season).
4) Total number of TC's by month:
a) September = 132.
b) August = 95.
c) October = 91.
d) June = 21.
e) July = 20.
f) November = 12.
g) May = 5.
h) December = 2.
i) Others = 0.
Note: These statistics are reflective of the month in which TCs initially achieved TS or STS intensity.
5) Total number of H's by month:
a) September = 97
b) August = 77.
c) October = 55
d) July = 13.
e) June = 10.
f) November = 5.
g) May = 1.
h) December = 1.
i) Others = 0.
6) Total number of MH's by month:
a) August = 25.
b) September = 23.
c) October = 12
d) June = 0.
e) July = 0.
f) November = 0.
g) May = 0.
h) December = 0.
i) Others = 0.
7) Most intense TC recorded: Storm #5 (The Indianola, TX. hurricane) of August 1886 is the strongest known TC to have traversed the North Atlantic Basin during the 1851-1900 period. It had a maximum intensity of 155 mph maximum sustained winds (MSW) and a lowest central pressure value of 925 mb. This is also the intensity it contained when it barreled ashore at Indianola, TX. around 8 am CDT on August 20, 1886. Its borderline category four/five MSW and accompanying 15 ft. storm surge completely demolished the town of Indianola, TX. that fateful morning of August 20, 1886. As a result, those inhabitants that were fortunate enough to survive chose to abandon the town and it was never rebuilt.
8) Most TCs to form in one season: The 1887 season produced 19 documented TCs of tropical storm and/or hurricane intensity. The 1857, 1868, 1883, 1884, and 1890 seasons hold the distinction for spawning the least during this period--with 4, respectively.
9) Most hurricanes to develop in one season: The 1887 season also produced the most TCs of hurricane intensity, with 11. The 1890 and 1895 seasons had the least with two each, respectively.
10) Most "major" hurricanes to develop in one season: The 1893 season has been analyzed to have spawned the most TCs of MH intensity, with 5. The seasons of 1857, 1858, 1861, 1862, 1863, 1864, 1865, 1868, 1872, 1874, 1881, 1889, 1892, 1895, and 1897 don't currently show any MHs of record, for their respective seasons.
11) Total number of TCs to make a U.S. landfall: 171 (an average of 3.42 per season).
12) Total number of U.S. landfalling hurricanes: 97 (an average of 1.94 per season).
13) Total number of U.S. "major" landfalling hurricanes: 27 (an average of 0.54 per season).
14) Total number of U.S. landfalling TCs by month:
a) September = 55.
b) October = 50.
c) August = 37.
d) June = 17.
e) July = 11.
f) November = 3.
g) May = 0.
h) December = 0.
i) Others = 0.
Note: Storm #6 of 1885 (Sept./Oct.) and Storm #2 of 1899 (July/Aug.) each made a U.S. landfall-at TS and/or H intensity-during two separate months, respectively.
15) Total number of U.S. landfalling H's by month:
a) September = 35.
b) August = 26.
c) October = 22.
d) June = 7.
e) July = 6.
f) November = 1.
g) May = 0.
h) December = 0.
i) Others = 0.
16) Total number of U.S. landfalling MH's by month:
a) August = 12.
b) September = 8.
c) October = 7.
d) June = 0.
e) July = 0.
f) November = 0.
g) May = 0.
h) December = 0.
i) Others = 0.
17) Most intense U.S. landfalling hurricane: As noted in fact #5, the "Indianola" hurricane of August 20, 1886 was the most hurricane known to have battered the U.S. shoreline, during this period of record.
18) Most TCs to strike the U.S. coastline in one season: The 1886, 1888, and 1893 H seasons produced 8 documented TCs of tropical storm and/or hurricane intensity that made a direct strike on U.S. shores. The 1862 and 1864 seasons didn't have a documented TC landfall.
19) Most hurricanes to strike the U.S. coastline in one season: The 1886 H season produced the most U.S. landfalling TCs of hurricane intensity, with 7. The 1862, 1863, 1864, 1868, 1872, 1884, 1890, and 1892 H seasons didn't have a single documented hurricane landfall along the U.S. coastline, during this period of record.
20) Most "major" hurricanes to strike the U.S. coastline in one season: The 1893 H season spawned 3 hurricanes that came ashore at MH intensity. The strongest of the three was the devastating "Chenier Caminanda" hurricane, that came ashore around 3 am CST on October 2, 1893. At landfall, it was a category four hurricane with a MSW of 135 mph and a lowest central pressure of 948 mb. Its powerful winds and accompanying 10 ft. storm surge delivered immense destruction to the Island of Chenier Caminanda, La., and an estimated 2,000 souls lost their lives that fateful day-mostly the result of the storm surge.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I will continue to provide additional "fascinating facts", relative to this particular era of hurricane history, as time permits. In the meantime, I hope each one of you have a great rest of the week!:)
Most sincerely,
Tony
Reader Comments
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Please feel free to review the data contained in this particular blog entry, and point out any prospective errors that might be contained therein-if any. Moreover, please don't hesitate to suggest additional "fascinating facts" that I might want to incorporate into this particular entry, as well.
Most important of all, I want to thank you for taking the time to read my blog, and I hope you have a wonderful start to the upcoming weekend!:)
Most sincerely,
Tony
Hi Nrt,
I greatly appreciate you sharing the link from the recent HRD science meeting. Unfortunately, I am unable to access it myself, for some reason-might be my computer. Regardless, I appreciate the post nonetheless, and am hopeful that others may be able to access the link themselves.
Thanks again, and I hope you are having a good start to your weekend!:)
Most sincerely,
Tony
Hey Everyone,
This particular blog entry will focus on the second fifty years of the historical record (1901-1950) in regards to tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the North Atlantic Basin.
Important Notations Relative to the Era:
As mentioned in the previous blog entry, the vast majority of the data contained in this study, was obtained from "HURDAT"-the official database containing all known tropical storms (TS) and hurricanes (H) that have traversed some portion of the North Atlantic Basin (Atlantic Ocean, Carribean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico), during the period of 1851-2010.
As noted in the previous blog entry as well, scientists and hurricane researchers with the Hurricane Research Division (HRD)-and their collaborators-are continuing to examine the historical record, in order to ensure that HURDAT is as accurate as one could reasonably expect. As of the time of this writing, they have completed an extensive review (including modification of the historical record, where applicable) for the period of 1851-1930. Based upon their work, known as the Hurricane Reanalysis Project (HRP), it is estimated that "a little more than 3" TS's and/or H's were likely "missed" (went undetected)-per season-during the period of 1901-1950.
That being said, there were some significant advancements during this period, that led to improvements in the science of TC detection, forecasting, and observation. The advent of the radio in 1905 allowed for ship to shore communications-which was impossible prior to this time. Before this major technological advancement occurred, weather observers had no way of gathering data from, or about, any TC's that didn't have a direct impact on land. Ironically, there was a downfall to this new found ability to transmit real-time data to and/from ships at sea, in that ships now had the information necessary to intentionally avoid encountering these devastating storms. With that, there was a "modest decrease" in the number of ship observations during this particular period.
Another huge break-through in TC detection and observation took place on July 27, 1943. On that fateful day, Major Joesph Duckworth flew a "propeller-driven, single-engine North American AT-6 Texan trainer into the eye of a hurricane". When he returned to base, the stations weather officer asked Maj. Duckworth to take him along for a second penetration into the eye of the storm. With these two historic flights, Maj. Duckworth helped pave the way for the countless reconnaissance missions that would follow. These reconnaissance flights, begun in the summer of 1944, have greatly improved the science of TC forecasting, and the importance of which, can hardly be overstated. On the other hand, regular reconnaissance (Recon) flights into TC's was still in its infancy, during the latter part of the period we are examining. In the beginning, military units were tasked to fly regular reconnaissance missions/tracks across the Atlantic between North America and Allied Western Europe-only during daylight hours-in order to detect the presence of TC's. This definitely helped improve the detection of some TC's, but many others were "missed" because they didn't track through the areas RECON fights were tasked to cover. Even when RECON did locate a storm, or were sent out to investigate the intensity of one, they were hesitant to fly into the eyewall (in order to get to the eye) of strong hurricanes. Consequently, a direct measurement of a TC's central pressure was somewhat rare during the first decade of aircraft reconnaissance flights. Regardless, the implementation of a formal program for regular aircraft reconnaissance missions to gather data on prospective TC's and determining the intensity of others, has proven to be one of the most important advances in the science of TC forecasting and observation.
In short, this period of record (1901-1950) saw an increased improvement in the detection, observation, and forecasting of TC's. The continued increase in population along coastal areas of the U.S.-during this period-also provided for a more accurate accounting of U.S. tropical cyclone landfalls. That being said, Landsea, etc, al, stated the following in "A Reanalysis of the 1911-1920 Atlantic Hurricane database": "It is estimated that more than three tropical cyclone's a year were likely missed in the pre-geostationary satellite era between 1900 and 1965 (Landsea 2007)". It serves as a reminder of the limitations in TC detection, observation, and forecasting that existed throughout the era of 1901-1950.
FASCINATING FACTS:
With all the aforementioned taken into consideration, let's take an extensive look at some of the most "fascinating facts" of this particular era, for tropical cyclone activity throughout the North Atlantic basin.
1) Total number of tropical cyclones (includes Subtropical Storms): 411 (an average of 8.22 per season).
2) Total number of hurricanes: 224 (an average of 4.48 per season).
3) Total number of "major" hurricanes: 86 (an average of 1.7 per season).
4) Total number of TC's by month:
a) September = 135.
b) August = 96.
c) October = 93.
d) July = 32.
e) June = 26.
f) November = 21.
g) May = 7.
h) March = 1.
i) December = 0.
j) Others = 0.
Note: These statistics are reflective of the month in which TCs initially achieved TS or STS intensity.
This thesis A REANALYSIS OF THE 1944-1953 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASONS-
THE FIRST DECADE OF AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE may provide you with some additional background information for your new blog entry. It is a normal pdf file so your should be able to access it.
Hi Nrt,
I greatly appreciate you providing the respective links to important historical data and the HRP, specifically. Although I was unable to access the previous link, I have already reviewed Andrew Hagan's Master's Thesis as soon as it was available. That being said, I am trying to be careful and resist the urge to make any preemptive modifications to the HURDAT data (based on preliminary results such as those contained in Mr. Hagan's Thesis) until they have been officially accepted by the NHC Best Track Committee and approved for insertion in to HURDAT, itself. I will likely make reference to these preliminary results, but won't amend the respective figures until they are officially accepted.
When I wrote the blogs detailing all known TC's of STS, TS, and H intensity that have traversed the North Atlantic Basin for the entire period of 1851-2010-broken down into each respective month of a calendar year-I had to do my own thorough research into which Tc's of STS or TS intensity may have made a U.S. landfall or brought sustained TS force winds to the U.S. coastline for the period of 1931-2010. The reason I had to do the aforementioned is because HURDAT doesn't currently contain a detailed listing of all TC's of TS intensity that have made a U.S. landfall past 1930, at the present time-as it does for all those that have impacted the U.S. at hurricane intensity. During this research, I discovered a couple hurricanes that appear to have brought HF conditions (I.e. 1-minute sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) to a portion of the U.S. coastline that isn't currently listed as a direct H strike in HURDAT, to date.
In short, I want to thank you again for taking the time to post and for all of your thoughtfulness!:) I am going to have to get going-long day ahead-but, I want to wish you a great rest of the day, and I will look forward to talking with you again soon!:)
Most sincerely,
Tony
Ty, as always, for the very kind words!:) I just replied to your email and will look forward to keeping in touch!:)
Your friend,
Tony
a) September = 84.
b) August = 57.
c) October = 42.
d) July = 15.
e) June = 11.
f) November = 13.
g) May = 1.
h) December = 0.
i) March = 1.
j) Others = 0.
6) Total number of MH's by month:
a) August = 21.
b) September = 40.
c) October = 18.
d) June = 2.
e) July = 4.
f) November = 1.
g) May = 0.
h) December = 0.
i) Others = 0.
7) Most intense TC recorded: Storm #2 (The Great Labor Day hurricane) of September 2, 1935 is the strongest known TC to have traversed the North Atlantic basin during the 1901-1950 period. It had a maximum intensity of 185 mph (based on recent estimates of historical data) maximum sustained winds (MSW) and a lowest minimum central pressure value of 892 mb. This is also the intensity it contained when it barreled ashore at Craig Key, Fl. (in the middle Florida Keys) around 630 pm EDT on September 2, 1935. Its powerful category five MSW and accompanying 18 ft. storm surge devastated the middle and upper Florida Keys.
8) Most TC's to form in one season: The 1933 season produced 21 documented TC's of tropical storm and/or hurricane intensity. The 1914 H season holds the distinction for spawning the least during this period-with only 1 known TC formation.
9) Most hurricanes to develop in one season: The 1950 season produced the most TC's of hurricane intensity, with 11. The 1907 and 1914 seasons had the least with "Zero" known hurricane formations, respectively.
10) Most "major" hurricanes to develop in one season: The 1950 season also spawned the most TC's of MH intensity-during this period-with 8. The seasons of 1901, 1904, 1907, 1911, 1913, 1914, 1920, 1925, 1934, 1937, and 1940 don't currently show any MHs of record, for their respective seasons.
11) Total number of TC's to make a U.S. landfall: 191 (an average of 3.82 per season),
12) Total number of U.S. landfalling hurricanes: 97 (an average of 1.94 per season).
13) Total number of U.S. "major" landfalling hurricanes: 34 (an average of 0.64 per season).
14) Total number of U.S. landfalling TC's by month:
a) September = 65.
b) August = 43.
c) October = 33.
d) July = 22.
e) June = 20.
f) November = 5.
g) May = 3.
h) December = 0.
i) Others = 0.
15) Total number of U.S. landfalling H's by month:
a) September = 31.
b) August = 28.
c) October = 18.
d) July = 10.
e) June = 8.
f) November = 2.
g) May = 0.
h) December = 0.
i) Others = 0.
16) Total number of U.S. landfalling MH's by month:
a) September = 18.
b) August = 7.
c) October = 5.
d) July = 3.
e) June = 1.
f) November = 0.
g) May = 0.
h) December = 0.
i) Others = 0.
17) Most intense U.S. landfalling hurricane: As noted in fact #5, the "Great Labor Day hurricane" of September 2, 1935 was the most intense hurricane known to have battered the U.S. shoreline, during this period of record.
18) Most TCs to strike the U.S. coastline in one season: The 1916 H seasons produced 9 documented TC's of tropical storm and/or hurricane intensity that made a direct strike on U.S. shores. The 1914 season had only one documented TC landfall.
19) Most hurricanes to strike the U.S. coastline in one season: The 1909 and 1933 H seasons produced the most U.S. landfalling TCs of hurricane intensity, with 5. The 1902, 1905, 1907, 1914, 1922, 1927, 1930, 1931, and 1937 H seasons didn't have a single documented hurricane landfall along the U.S. coastline, during this period of record.
20) Most "major" hurricanes to strike the U.S. coastline in one season: The 1909 H season spawned 3 hurricanes that came ashore at MH intensity. The strongest of the three was the devastating and very deadly "Grand Isle" hurricane, that came ashore around 7 pm CDT on September 20, 1909. At landfall, it was a large category three hurricane with a MSW of 120 mph and a lowest minimum central pressure of 952 mb. Its powerful winds and accompanying 15 ft. storm surge delivered immense destruction to the coastline of Southeast Louisiana and portions of the Southwest Mississippi shoreline, as well. As a result, more than 371 persons lost their lives in this historic hurricane.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I will continue to provide additional "fascinating facts", relative to this particular era of hurricane history, as time permits. In the meantime, I hope each one of you have a great rest of the week!:)
Most sincerely,
Tony
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