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MY 2007 ATLANTIC HURRICANE FORECAST

By: ncforecaster , 1:21 AM GMT on June 04, 2007

Hey everyone,

I have finally found time to post my own personal seasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone forecast, that I had actually written (saved in my mailbox) a couple months earlier. At the time, I had done so with the intention of posting it in accordance with the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season on June 1st. As it stands now, I am posting this pre-season forecast three days late. Although we have already seen two tropical storms form so very early in this particular hurricane season, I am not modifying this forecast which I had prepared back in April (mainly because I anticipated two June named storms anyway in my seasonal forecast). On a more personal note, I would be most remiss if I didn't take this opportunity to offer a most heartfelt "thank you" to each one of the very thoughtful souls who took the time to post in my previous blog, whom I hadn't gotten around to responding to, due to my current personal time constraints.

MY PRESEASON TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST FOR 2007:

In the conservation of time and in an asserted effort to shorten the length of my blogs, I will divide my seasonal forecast into a three part blog series. In doing so, this particular blog entry will focus on the specific numbers that I am projecting relative to the overall tropical cyclone activity across the Atlantic Basin. As time allows, I will subsequently post parts two and three of this series in which I will be providing the actual forecast reasoning behind the numbers I have listed herein. Most importantly, I would encourage anyone reading any and all prospective seasonal hurricane forecasts to recognize that such predictions are no more than ones own best educated GUESS (and should be appreciated within this most important context). Likewise, I want to remind everyone that there is essentially no definitive skill in predicting a specific landfall locality even seven days beforehand, much less several weeks in advance. In simplest terms, the atmosphere itself is very complex and subtle changes in the corresponding environment around a prospective storm can and does have a dramatic effect on its future evolution and eventual trajectory. As alluded to in my previous blog, the Bermuda High itself plays an extremely significant role in determining where such a storm system will ultimately end up. To highlight the immense complexities of tropical cyclone forecasting, it is virtually impossible for anyone to predict with any definitive skill exactly where the Bermuda High will be centrally located (nor its actual intensity) more than a couple of weeks in advance. That being said, there are atmospheric and climatological signals that we can currently evaluate to give us a general (key word here) idea as to just how the aforementioned atmospheric parameters might evolve during the course of the upcoming hurricane season.

Regardless, it is most imperative that we all recognize our own unique vulnerability to these deadly and destructive atmospheric phenomenon, and prepare accordingly for what may ultimately transpire during the course of this upcoming hurricane season. I want to reiterate a common refrain we so often hear repeated during every hurricane season, with good reason. "It only takes one storm to make a very devastating hurricane season". Case in point, hurricane Andrew inflicted massive devastation upon South Florida (as a category five), as well as South Central Louisiana (as a minimal category three), during what otherwise would've been one of the most inactive and inconsequential Atlantic hurricane seasons in history. With all the aforementioned in mind, I have drawn upon all of my own personal education, knowledge, and research in hopes of providing the most accurate seasonal forecast possible. To reiterate, this is no more nor no less than my own best educated GUESS.

WHAT DO I PERSONALLY EXPECT?

Tropical Storms = 15-18 (favor 16-17)

Hurricanes = 8-10 (favor 8-9)

Major Hurricanes = 4-6 (favor 4-5)

Category five hurricanes = 1 (probability at 60%)

U.S. Hurricane landfalls = 3-5

U.S. Major Hurricane landfalls = 1-3 (favor 1-2)

Category five U.S. landfalls = 0 (extremely confident in this forecast)

Category four U.S. landfalling hurricanes = 0-1 (at most)

MY NEXT BLOG ENTRY:

In my next blog entry, I will list the specific atmospheric parameters that most influenced the forecasted conclusions as to what I personally expect for this upcoming hurricane season. As always, thanks so much for reading my blogs and please feel free to leave any comments to include posting of your own predictions, if you like.:)

Most sincerely,
Tony

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18. Raysfan70
9:59 AM GMT on June 05, 2007
{{Tony}}
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
17. Patrap
10:14 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
Impressive..and on the move, Gonu

3
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 439 Comments: 137156
16. Alec
10:13 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
Hey Tony, as always great blogs....Always good to hear your analysis! BTW, JFYI I'm working at NWS to get experience in the field and working on hurricane patterns research for one of the forecasters there! Hope everything is going well for you and you family. You are missed when you aren't around....peace!=)
15. sandiquiz
12:00 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
Hello Tony,
Nice to see you around again. I always read your information with interest, even though it doesn't affect me.
Hope you and your family are well.
Sandi
Member Since: October 29, 2005 Posts: 331 Comments: 30161
14. OGal
11:54 AM GMT on June 04, 2007
Good Mornin Tony, great blog. You have so much knowledge. You amaze me. Keep us posted on all your thoughts. You are a leader when we start getting into the dicey season. Have a great Monday and again thanks. Will look forward to your next blog!
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 72 Comments: 19224
13. GetReal
11:19 AM GMT on June 04, 2007
That was a great analysis Tony, as usual... I'm sure that parts two and three will be worth the wait and interesting reading!

Also Tony I hope that all is well for you, and your family...
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8972
12. Raysfan70
10:08 AM GMT on June 04, 2007
{{Tony}}


Glad to see that you have posted your thoughts for this season.
Hope that you and the Family are doing well.
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
11. taco2me61
3:53 AM GMT on June 04, 2007
Tony,
Just wanted to stop by and read your blog like I always do and this time I must say you hit the nail on the head this time for sure....

You see big strikes can follow lull years for example....
Eight named storms surfaced in 1968, and of the four hurricanes that formed, none were stronger than a cat-1... The next year we had 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 5 reached cat-3 and 1 was a cat-5 (Camille)...

7 storms in 1994, and none of the 3 hurricanes got above a cat-2. Then in 1995 we had 19 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 5 cat-3 or better...

In 1997 we had 7 named storms I think and none were really that bad, but in 1998 we had 14 named storms formed with a cat-5 (Mitch)....

Now this info came from a locale paper today but brings up a good point about a year like last one, and then this year being so active...
Makes a man think for sure, do we have another Katrina or maybe an Andrew... "Who really knows"....

Thank you very much for part-1 and can't wait until part-2 & 3... This will be some good reading for sure....

Taco:0)
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3400
10. louastu
2:36 AM GMT on June 04, 2007
Nice to see you again Tony. I look forward to seeing your forecast reasoning. There are two major reasons for this. First, I enjoy reading your blogs and almost always learn something. Second, the numbers you are forecasting are considerably higher than my own predictions of 13 - 16 named storms, 6 - 9 hurricanes, and 3 - 6 major hurricanes.

I hope your schedule will soon allow you to post more frequently. Have a great night.

Your Friend,
Louis
9. outrocket
2:14 AM GMT on June 04, 2007
good blog and nice to have your take....should be an interesting season..
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 104 Comments: 11038
8. weatherboykris
2:09 AM GMT on June 04, 2007
So...does that mean I can't use the...."S" word?LOL!
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
6. weatherboykris
1:52 AM GMT on June 04, 2007
Category five U.S. landfalls = 0 (extremely confident in this forecast)

LOL.yeah,that's pretty much certain.BTW aqua,how come when you write "Season",it always has a "TM" on it?
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
4. weatherboykris
1:50 AM GMT on June 04, 2007
Thanks Tony.Great blog as always.
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
3. aquak9
1:33 AM GMT on June 04, 2007
Yeah, hi Tony! I sure hope you'll be able to spend more time here with us. Was wondering where you were, third day of Season and no Tony!
As usual, I'll be doing most of my reading when I can't post, but I always read your blog.
Thanks! and so good to see ya here with us again!
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 195 Comments: 28589
2. ryang
1:25 AM GMT on June 04, 2007
Hey Tony,

Great blog... nice prediction...

my prediction:

17-19 hurricanes

10 named storms

3-5 intense

Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12479
1. Damon85013
1:23 AM GMT on June 04, 2007
Hi Tony! Nice to see you... now to go read your blog :)
Member Since: July 19, 2005 Posts: 256 Comments: 6215

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