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MY 2012 HURRICANE SEASONAL FORECAST:

Posted by: ncforecaster, 6:00 AM GMT on May 31, 2012

MY 2012 SEASONAL FORECAST:

Hey everyone,

As I have done since May of 2006, I am going to post my seasonal forecast for North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones.

Unlike previous years, I have chosen not to go into great detail as to the specific methodology I used in order to determine the statistical numbers.

That being said, my 2012 seasonal forecast is based primarily upon my own projection that the current Neutral ENSO pattern will transition over to a weak El Nino by the the time we reach the climatilogical peak months of the hurricane season. I have also taken into consideration the anomalously cooler water temperatures currently present in the MDR region, as well as the typical atmospheric conditions that are associated with the warm phase of the AMO.

My very extensive statistical research into various climatological data also significantly influenced the figures I have listed below.

MY 2012 SEASONAL FORECAST:

a) Atlantic basin activity:

Named tropical storms = 11-13 (12)
Hurricanes = 4-6 (5)
Major hurricanes = 2-3 (2)

b) U.S. landfalls/strikes:

Named tropical storms = 3-5 (4)
Hurricanes = 1-2 (2)
Major hurricanes = 0-1 (1)

Note: These figures take into account the TS formations of both Alberto and Beryl, as well as the Pre-season landfall of TS Beryl on May 28.

The timing as to when, or even if, El Nino develops will have a very significant effect on just how active this particular North Atlantic hurricane season will be.

Categories:Hurricane Seasonal Forecasts

Updated: 7:48 PM GMT on June 02, 2012

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"JUNE" TROPICAL STORMS (1851-2011):

Posted by: ncforecaster, 7:03 AM GMT on May 29, 2012

Hey everyone,

This particular blog entry is an updated version of a similar blog entry I wrote last year (to account for the 2011 season and various other HURDAT revisions). In it, we will continue our examination of the entire historical record (1851-present), with a focus on "June" Tropical Cyclone (TC) activity throughout the Atlantic basin. A "June" TC will be characterized as one that initially developed at some point during the month of June (i.e. June 1-June 30). Those TC's (shown by year) that achieved hurricane (H) and/or "major" hurricane (MH) intensity will be designated by bold case print in the following respective sections.

ALL TROPICAL STORMS:

Note: Those tropical cyclones that achieved hurricane intensity will be identified by bold case print.

3 = 1886, 1909 (1 H), 1936 (1 H), and 1968 (2 H).

2 = 1871, 1902 (1 H), 1906 (1 H), 1957 (1 MH), 1959 (1 H), 1982 (1 STS/1 H), 1986 (1 H), and 2005.

1 = 1851, 1854, 1857, 1858, 1862, 1865, 1867, 1873, 1880, 1887, 1888, 1889, 1892, 1893, 1894, 1899, 1901, 1904, 1907, 1912, 1913, 1921, 1922, 1923, 1924, 1929, 1931, 1933, 1934, 1939, 1945 (MH), 1946, 1954, 1956, 1958, 1960, 1964, 1965, 1966 (MH), 1972, 1974 (STS), 1975, 1979, 1981, 1989, 1993, 1995, 1996, 1997 (STS), 1999, 2001, 2003, 2006, 2007, 2010, and 2011

This is a visible satellite image of H Alex (at peak intensity) just before it came ashore along the NE Gulf Coast of MX, on June 30, 2010. It is the most recent June TC of hurricane (H) intensity to develop anywhere within the Atlantic basin.

0 = 1852, 1853, 1855, 1856, 1859, 1860, 1861, 1863, 1864, 1866, 1868, 1869, 1870, 1872, 1874, 1875, 1876, 1877, 1878, 1879, 1881, 1882, 1883, 1884, 1885, 1890, 1891, 1895, 1896, 1897, 1898, 1900, 1903, 1905, 1908, 1910, 1911, 1914, 1915, 1916, 1917, 1918, 1919, 1920, 1925, 1926, 1927, 1928, 1930, 1932, 1935, 1937, 1938, 1940, 1941, 1942, 1943, 1944, 1947, 1948, 1949, 1950, 1951, 1952, 1953, 1955, 1961, 1962, 1963, 1967, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1973, 1976, 1977, 1978, 1980, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1987, 1988, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1994, 1998, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2008, and 2009.

Note: Storm #2 of 1916 (MH), storm #1 of 1994 (TS Alberto), and storm #2 of 1997 (TS Ana) were each a late "June" TC that didn't intensify into a TS until "July".

In addition: Storm #1 1857 (TS), storm #3 1886 (H), storm #2 1933 (H), storm #1 1975 (TS Amy), storm #2 1981 (TS Bret), storm #2 2003 (TS Bill), and storm #1 2010 (H Alex) were each a June TC of either TS or H intensity that at least retained TS intensity into July.

ALL U.S. TROPICAL STORM LANDFALLS:

Note: These totals combine both Tropical Storm and Hurricane landfalls (i.e. all named storms). Hurricanes will be shown in bold case print.

3 = 1886 (3 H).

2 = 1871, 1902, 1906 (1 H), 1909 (1 H), 1936 (1 H), 1957 (1 MH?), 1968, and 1982 (1 STS).

1 = 1851, 1854, 1865, 1867, 1873, 1880, 1887, 1888, 1889, 1892, 1893, 1899, 1901, 1907, 1912, 1913, 1921, 1923, 1929, 1931, 1934, 1939, 1945, 1946, 1953, 1954, 1956, 1958, 1960, 1965, 1966, 1972, 1974 (STS), 1986, 1989, 1993, 1995, 1996, 2001, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2010.

Note: Storm #1 of 1982 (H Alberto) was a H that delivered TS-force conditions to the Lower Fl. Keys of the U.S.

ALL U.S. HURRICANE LANDFALLS:

3 = 1886

2 = N/A.

1 = 1851, 1854, 1867, 1888, 1906, 1909, 1913, 1921, 1929, 1934, 1936, 1945, 1957 (MH?), 1966, 1972, and 1986.

This is a visible satellite image of H Bonnie from June 26, 1986-as it makes landfall in SE TX. It remains the most recent TC of H intensity to strike the U.S. coastline during the month of June.

ALL U.S. MAJOR HURRICANE LANDFALLS:

1 = 1957 (?).

This is a historic radar image of category four H Audrey (near peak intensity) as it bore down on the upper TX and SW La. coastlines of the U.S., on the morning of June 27, 1957. It remains the most intense June TC to ever develop in the Atlantic basin during the month of June, as well as the most intense June TC to strike the U.S. shoreline.

INTERESTING FACTS:

1) All Atlantic Basin Tropical Storms:

a) There were a total of 84 TS or STS systems that developed in the Atlantic basin during the 161 year period of 1851-2011. This equates to a statistical mean of one TC of STS or TS intensity developing during the month of June every 1.92 years.

In addition: Storm #1 of 2008 (TS Arthur) was a May TS that maintained TS intensity into June.

b) There were a total of 32 TC's that achieved hurricane (H) intensity during the aforementioned 161 year period. That equates to one June H every 5.03 years on average.

c) There were a total of 3 June TC's that ultimately achieved "major" hurricane intensity at some point during the month of June. These figures would constitute a statistical mean of one June major H traversing some portion of the Atlantic Basin every 53.7 years.

d) Hurricane Audrey holds the record as the most intense H to ever develop during the month of June. It intensified into a category four hurricane at 8 am CDT on June 27, 1957-just before it struck the U.S. coastline near the TX/La. border. At the time, it had a MSW of 145 mph and a corresponding barometric pressure of 945 mb. Moreover, it also holds the record as the most recent "major" hurricane to strike the U.S. coastline during the month of June

e) Tropical storm Arlene of the 2011 H season is the most recent TS to develop during the month of June. It became a TS on June 28, 2011 and achieved its maximum intensity of 65 mph-with a lowest B.P. of 993 mb-at landfall on the NE coast of mainland Mexico.

f) Hurricane Alex of June 2010 is the most recent June TC to become a hurricane during the month of June. It achieved TS intensity at 5 am EDT on June 26, 2010. It would go on to become a very large and powerful category two H-with a MSW of 110 mph and a lowest B.P. of 947 mb-just before it crossed the NE Gulf Coast of Mexico at 9 pm CDT on June 30, 2010.

g) The three longest periods of consecutive years without a TC developing anywhere in the Atlantic Basin during the month of June are 1874-1880, 1914-1921, and 1947-1954. In addition, 93 out of the 161 hurricane seasons (57.7%) in the historical record, didn't have a TS form during the entire month of June.

h) The 1886, 1909, 1936, and 1968 Atlantic Basin hurricane seasons are shown to have been the most prolific for "June" TC formations-with 3 each, respectively.

i) The 1886 Atlantic basin hurricane season holds the record for spawning the most hurricanes-during the month of June-with 3.

j) The 1945, 1957, and 1966 H seasons each spawned 1 MH during their respective seasons.

2) All U.S. Tropical Storm Landfalls:

a) There were 63 June TS or STS systems that made a U.S. landfall (or strike) during the aforementioned 161 year period. This equates to one June TS landfall per 2.56 years. Astonishingly, a full 75% of all Atlantic basin storms made landfall in the U.S. This is a reflection of the primary breeding grounds being located in such close proximity to the U.S. coastline.

b) There were 19 hurricanes that made a direct strike on the U.S. coastline during the month of June. This equates to one land falling June hurricane every 8.47 years. Furthermore, a full 59% of all Atlantic basin hurricanes struck the U.S. coastline.

c) Hurricane Audrey of the 1957 H season is the only known TC to have made a U.S. landfall, at "major" hurricane intensity, during the month of June. That said, preliminary reanalysis conducted by HRD suggests that H Audrey could be downgraded below "major" hurricane intensity. If so, this would mean that there hasn't been any documented "major" U.S. hurricane landfalls for the month of June.

d) As a result of the aforementioned reanalysis, it is difficult to determine which June hurricane was the most intense when it struck the U.S. shoreline. That being said, seven different hurricanes are currently listed in HURDAT as making a U.S. landfall at category two intensity or greater. They are category four hurricane Audrey of 1957 (145/945), 3 different category two hurricanes that made landfall in 1886 at the same exact intensity (100/973), category two Texas hurricane of 1909 (100/972), category two Louisiana hurricane of 1934 (100/966), and category two hurricane Alma of 1966 (100/982). This would equate to a category two or greater landfall every 23 years.

e) Hurricane Bonnie is the most recent June hurricane to have made a landfall on the U.S. shoreline. It made landfall between Sea Rim Park and High Island, TX. at 5 am CDT on June 26, 1986, as an 85 mph/990 mb category one hurricane. Based on the historical record, the U.S. is well overdue for another June hurricane strike.

f) The most recent "June" TS to make a direct U.S. landfall was TS Alberto of 2006. It struck the NW Florida coastline near Adams Beach as a 45 mph TS at 1230 pm EDT on June 13, 2006. Based on the historical average, we are currently overdue for another U.S. TS landfall as well. That being said, H Alex of 2010 brought TS-force sustained winds to extreme south TX. during the late evening hours of June 30, 2010-as it barreled ashore in NE MX., as a strong category two H.

g) The longest periods of consecutive years without a landfalling U.S. TS (during the month of June) include 1855-1865, 1874-1880, 1881-1887, 1914-1921, 1947-1953, and 1975-1982. In addition, 109 out of the 161 H seasons (67.7%) didn't have a U.S. TS strike.

h) The 1886 H season had the most land falling Tropical storms-for the month of June-with 3.

i) The 1886 Atlantic basin hurricane season also leads the way for U.S. hurricane landfalls-during the month of June-with 3.

j) The 1957 H season contained the only known U.S. landfalling hurricane that came ashore at MH intensity.

FUTURE BLOG ENTRIES:

I will post additional updated blog entries (similar to this one) for the other respective months of a calendar year. With that in mind, the next entry should be a thorough examination of the entire climatological record for "July" TC's in the Atlantic basin.

As always, thank you so much for taking the time to read and/or post in my blogs. I hope you have a great rest of the day!:)

Most sincerely,
Tony

Updated: 12:51 AM GMT on May 30, 2012

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"MAY" TROPICAL STORMS (1851-2011):

Posted by: ncforecaster, 10:31 PM GMT on May 26, 2012

Hey everyone,

This particular blog entry will continue our examination of the entire historical record (1851-present), with a focus on "May" Tropical Cyclone (TC) activity throughout the Atlantic Basin. A "May" TC will be characterized as one that initially developed at some point during the month of May (i.e. May 1-May 31). Those TCs (shown by year) that achieved hurricane (H) and/or "major" hurricane (MH) intensity, will be designated by bold case print, in the following respective sections.

ALL TROPICAL STORMS:

Note: These totals include Subtropical Storms (STS), as well.

2 = 1887.

1 = 1865, 1889, 1890, 1908, 1916, 1932, 1933, 1935, 1940, 1948, 1951 (MH), 1953, 1959, 1970, 1972 (STS), 1976 (STS), 1981, 2007 (STS), and 2008.

In addition: Storm #1 of 2008 (TS Arthur) maintained TS intensity into the month of June.

ALL U.S. TROPICAL STORM LANDFALLS/STRIKES:

1 = 1908, 1916, 1951, 1959, 1972 (STS), 1976 (STS), and 2007 (STS).

ALL U.S. HURRICANE LANDFALLS:

1 = 1908

Note: Although the eye of the 1908 H crossed the U.S. coastline as a 75 mph category one storm, there were no reports of hurricane force winds observed on land.

ALL U.S. MAJOR HURRICANE LANDFALLS:

NONE

INTERESTING FACTS:

1) All Atlantic Basin Tropical Storms:

a) There were a total of 21 "May" TS or STS systems that developed in the Atlantic Basin during the 161 year period of 1851-2011. This equates to one May TS or STS every 7.67 years, on average.

b) There were a total of 4 TCs that achieved hurricane intensity during the month of May. This equates to one May H every 40.25 years, on average.

c) There has only been one documented May TC to achieve "major" hurricane (MH) intensity during the month of May.

d) Hurricane Able of 1951 holds the record as the most intense May hurricane for anywhere in the Atlantic Basin. It became a category three storm (major hurricane intensity) during the early morning hours of May 20, 1951, as it passed offshore of the NC coastline. At the time, it contained a Maximum sustained wind (MSW) of 115 mph. It had previously impacted the extreme NW Bahama Islands as an 85-90 mph category one hurricane on the 18th.

e) TS Arthur of 2008 is the most recent "May" TC (of at least TS intensity) to develop anywhere within the Atlantic basin. It became a TS-with a MSW of 40 mph-very late on May 30, 2008. Less than nine hours thereafter, TS Arthur came ashore in NE Belize as a 45 mph/1004 mb storm. Unfortunately, its heavy rainfall triggered "devastating floods" that took the lives of 5 persons in the Country of Belize and caused extensive property damage.

f) H Alma of 1970 is the most recent TC of hurricane intensity to develop in the Atlantic basin. After developing in the SW Carribean Sea, the weak depression that would become "Alma" moved slowly Northwestward and subsequently achieved TS intensity during the late night hours of May 19, 1970. After turning to a due N and then NNE trajectory-while moving over increasingly warmer waters-Alma rapidly intensified into an 80 mph/993 mb category one H by 2 pm EDT on May 20th. A strong area of High pressure to its N caused "Alma" to abruptly turn back to a more westward heading by late on the 21st. A significant increase in vertical wind shear caused H Alma to quickly degenerate back to tropical depression status by 2 am EDT on the 22nd. From there, it would maintain this intensity as it tracked through the NW Carribean, across eastern Cuba, and through the western Gulf of Mexico to its eventual landfall near Cedar Key, Fl. After landfall, it moved off in a general N to NNE motion through the SE coastal states before ultimately becoming absorbed by a large low pressure system-just as it was about to exit the U.S. coastline near Norfolk, Va.-very late on the 26th.

g) The 1887 Atlantic Basin hurricane season is shown to have been the most prolific for "May" TC formations-with 2.

h) The 1889, 1908, 1951, and 1970 Atlantic basin hurricane seasons hold the record for spawning the most TC's of hurricane intensity-with one each, respectively.

i) The 1951 hurricane season is the only one known to have spawned a MH during the entire historical record of 1851-2011.

2) All U.S. Tropical Storm Landfalls:

a) There were a total of 7 May TS or STS systems that made a U.S. landfall (or strike) during the aforementioned 161 year period. This equates to one May TS or STS landfall (or strike) every 22.86 years, on average. Moreover, a full 33.3% of all "May" Atlantic Basin storms made landfall in the U.S.

b) Storm #2 of 1908 is the only known hurricane to have made a direct strike on the U.S. coastline during the month of May. The eye of this historic storm brushed along the extreme eastern portions of the NC Outer Banks as a 75 mph/989 mb hurricane-during the early evening hours on May 29, 1908. In doing so, it is estimated that a MSW of 65 mph likely impacted that area-with hurricane-force winds staying just offshore.

c) STS Andrea of 2007 is the most recent TC of either STS or TS intensity to bring tropical storm force winds to the U.S. shoreline-constituting a TS strike. Around noon on May 9, 2007, St. Simons Island, Ga. recorded a MSW of 40 mph, while STS Andrea was meandering about 100 nm offshore of NE Florida.

Updated: 11:11 PM GMT on May 26, 2012

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