Personal Area Forecast Discussion for Antigua and Barbuda (West Indies)

By: mj268 , 10:47 AM GMT on August 09, 2014

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FOR ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA
ISSUED BY THE HJOEM



August 09, 2014 00:30 UTC

SYNOPSIS:
WEAK UNSTABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA AS AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS…. GRADUAL DRYING IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

DISCUSSION:
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DOMINATED THE AREA TODAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE CROSSED THE LESSER ANTILLES, SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WERE ALSO REPORTED. A RATHER SIGNIFICANT 17MM OF RAINFALL WAS RECORDED AT THE V.C. BIRD INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (TAPA) UP TO 2:00PM THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE, RADAR AND WATER VAPOUR IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW RESIDUAL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA HOWEVER, THERE IS A MARKED REDUCTION IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE WAVE CONTINUES ON ITS JOURNEY WESTWARD. WINDS TODAY REMAINED GENERALLY LIGHT PEAKING NEAR 12 KNOTS, AS THE WAVE PASSED A CONTINUOUS REDUCTION OF THE WIND OCCURRED AND FOR MOST OF THE DAY WINDS WERE AVERAGING NEAR 5-6 KNOTS.

LATEST MODEL ANALYSES AND GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE MAY RESULT IN PASSAGE OF A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT BEFORE A GRADUAL DRYING OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINNING OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TOMORROW HENCE AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES FURTHER AWAY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS ARE EXPECTED. TOMORROW IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. WINDS SHOULD REBOUND A LITTLE TOMORROW AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STEEPENS SLIGHTLY, WINDS SHOULD PEAK NEAR 13 KNOTS…TONIGHT’S LOW SHOULD BE AROUND 24 DEGREES CELSIUS AND TOMORROW’S HIGH TEMPERATURE SHOULD BE AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.

AVIATION:
VISUAL FLIGHT RULE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA, MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR, FEW –SHRA/SHRA MAY OCCUR IN WHICH CASE MVFR CONDS/CIGS MAY APPLY.



MARINE:
MODERATE SEA CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL…WINDS OVER OPEN WATERS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 12-15 KNOTS AND WAVES HEIGHTS SHOULD NOT EXCEED 5 FEET.


WATCHES/ WARNINGS:
ANU…NONE
BBQ…. NONE
LOCAL WATERS…NONE

ISSUED BY:
M. Joseph
Aspiring Meteorologist


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