mississippiwx23 doesn't have a bio yet.
By: mississippiwx23 , 4:03 PM GMT on September 21, 2007
This will be a general comparison in order to see trends in the models. I will try to update this with changes in the models over the weekend.
12Z 21ST NAM:
The model sticks a 1024mb high centered over New York City over the entire Monday time period (6Z-0Z [model run ends at 0zZ]). A cold front is shown from MN/WI border southwest through Iowa into Nebraska at 0Z Tuesday. This front seems very potent but it far west and north of the area. It will be interesting to see how this front evolves over time with the possiblity of it influencing the area in a few days.
The best 850mb temp data I can find is out to 12Z monday, and it shows temps around 14C.
Further, the model is trying to create a tropical low south of florida at 0Z Tuesday. The low is centered directly off of the southern tip of Florida.
06Z 21ST GFS:
The 6Z GFS pinpoints the front at about the exact same place in the midwest. It has much more moisture advection ahead of the front from the lower mississippi valley up to wisconsin than the NAM. The 1024 mb low is centered much further off the coast, east of Delaware in the atlantic.
850mb temps at 18-0Z on Mon are around 15C.
The GFS model does not produce the low off of Florida, but rather a low moving towards LA.
I WILL KEEP UPDATING THIS DISCUSSION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
Comments will take a few seconds to appear.