Model Comparisons and trends for next week

By: mississippiwx23 , 4:03 PM GMT on September 21, 2007

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This will be a general comparison in order to see trends in the models. I will try to update this with changes in the models over the weekend.

12Z 21ST NAM:

The model sticks a 1024mb high centered over New York City over the entire Monday time period (6Z-0Z [model run ends at 0zZ]). A cold front is shown from MN/WI border southwest through Iowa into Nebraska at 0Z Tuesday. This front seems very potent but it far west and north of the area. It will be interesting to see how this front evolves over time with the possiblity of it influencing the area in a few days.

The best 850mb temp data I can find is out to 12Z monday, and it shows temps around 14C.

Further, the model is trying to create a tropical low south of florida at 0Z Tuesday. The low is centered directly off of the southern tip of Florida.

06Z 21ST GFS:

The 6Z GFS pinpoints the front at about the exact same place in the midwest. It has much more moisture advection ahead of the front from the lower mississippi valley up to wisconsin than the NAM. The 1024 mb low is centered much further off the coast, east of Delaware in the atlantic.

850mb temps at 18-0Z on Mon are around 15C.

The GFS model does not produce the low off of Florida, but rather a low moving towards LA.


I WILL KEEP UPDATING THIS DISCUSSION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

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6. MNTornado
9:04 PM GMT on May 14, 2009
Nice pictures of the tornado and wall cloud. It's been a pretty wild 24 hours indeed.
Member Since: July 1, 2005 Posts: 160 Comments: 19327
5. moonlightcowboy
5:40 AM GMT on September 30, 2007
Good, and congratulations on the career! And, congrats, too for IU.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
4. mississippiwx23
5:27 AM GMT on September 30, 2007
Yup, indeed a Bulldog fan, but much more a Hoosier! IU is 4-1 this year! Maybe, just maybe, going to a bowl. Finally!

And yes, graduate work in meteorology. My ultimate goal is to work for the NWS once I graduate in May.
Member Since: August 20, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 683
3. moonlightcowboy
5:19 AM GMT on September 30, 2007
I see, Bulldog fan! lol. Went to Ole Miss! lol

Graduate work? Weather? Anyways, do enjoy your posts. Thanks.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
2. mississippiwx23
5:13 AM GMT on September 30, 2007
I am actually not from Mississippi, but I am a graduate student at Mississippi State University. I was actually doing those model trends for the wxchallenge forecast contest (www.wxchallenge.com). I was going to post the discussions on here, but found out we had a class blog and moved them there. It is tough to keep up posting a blog with graduate school work as well! Dr. Ms blog is definately very informative, and it is great having so many people posting different opinions, including your own...even if we do get a few 'trolls' every now and then.
Member Since: August 20, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 683
1. moonlightcowboy
5:03 AM GMT on September 30, 2007
MS23, yeah, this is a good idea posting a blog with model comparisons and trends! I'd sure visit! Sorry, I haven't until just now. Also, I do like your posts in the main blog, too.

--fellow Mississippian myself. Was just outside of Laurel, now near Meridian. And you?
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610

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