It Just Doesn't Get Any Better Than This.

By: mgwxta19 , 11:49 PM GMT on October 07, 2013

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FORECAST:



Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Cool. High 75, Low 45



Wednesday: Partly sunny. Cool. High 75, Low 51



Thursday: Mostly sunny. Mild. High 78, Low 54



EXTENDED OUTLOOK:



Friday: Sunny. High 80, Low 50



Saturday: Gradually increasing clouds. High 81, Low 53



Sunday: Partly cloudy. High 82, Low 52



Columbus Day: Partly cloudy. High 81, Low 52



NOTES:



Veteran weather forecaster J.B. Elliott noted today that the recent weather was the craziest he'd seen for this time of year in his entire life. I have to agree. It's been nuts, worldwide. We are indeed fortunate in our little corner of it.



However, on a more positive note, I'd like to note that the recent violent tornado in Wayne, Nebraska (which, as Mr. Elliott said, practically wiped the town off the map) caused no fatalities. Zero. There were fifteen injuries. No one killed. Despite there being homes destroyed down to the slabs. Something went right. (I'm waiting for Dr. Chuck Doswell to write a blog about this; that's not my role. Heh.) So keep in mind with a lot of the media hyperbole that tries to scare the life out of you. Even when the weather is indeed crazy, it's often not as bad as you'd think . . . back on April 27th, 2011, an old apartment I once shared with my brother was hit directly by a tornado of similar violence, but if we'd been in his closet . . . we probably wouldn't have had a scratch. So yeah, that stuff is certainly serious, but I'd like to offer a counterbalance to the fearful side of it. Even in the most violent tornadoes, you often can survive without an underground bunker. A lot of people will try to tell you otherwise. But . . . that's my two cents' worth.



DISCUSSION:









Wow - couldn't ask for a more beautiful day. Plenty of sunshine, and look at those temperatures. Hardly a spot across the region over 70 degrees. Had a nice breeze today too.



Let's see . . . our High in Huntsville was 71, with a Low of 51. In Cullman the High was 68, with a Low of 51. Winds have been generally gusting between 10-20 mph from the North. And humidities have been pretty low, which makes it feel even better. This cold front was rather kind to us, all the way around.







Obviously, high pressure has set into the region, with northerly wind flow.











Going with the GFS exclusively for this forecast. The only real discrepancy with the ECMWF comes at the end of the forecast period, but I'm dismissing it for the moment. After a very cool night tonight (lows in the mid 40's in most places), a reinforcing surface trough pushes through just enough to bring a few clouds back tomorrow. It might not even be enough so as you'd really notice. That will slow down any real warming trend. And tomorrow looks quite nice too, with Highs still in the low-to-mid 70's. Winds should be north/northeast but a bit lighter.









Actually, late tomorrow through Wednesday, the center of this high pressure ridge shifts up to the New England states, and a tiny bit of the moisture from the-mess-that-used-to-be-Karen starts to advect in our general direction. Will just mention an increase in clouds. The extra moisture should bring low temperatures back up into the 50's, and the position of the high-pressure-system should shift our winds more from the East. Still a very nice day, Highs should stay in the mid-70's.











And on Thursday, the center of high pressure continues to gradually drift northeast. Our winds should start to shift gradually more toward the west and then southwest. Our warming trend should start at this point. Still plenty of sunshine, and we probably don't even hit the 80-degree mark.





Going into the extended period, Friday looks like a sunny and mild day, probably a High around 80, morning low around 50. That cold front in the Dakota region will be our next chance at rain. Friday we stay dry though.





Saturday the front is close enough, should start to mention increasing clouds. Still lots of sun and somewhat warmer temps, but probably still just lower 80's for highs.





The front should bring us some more clouds and some rain chances by Sunday. But if anything, we're talking just isolated little showers. Still just-barely-warm temperatures.





And the GFS shows it washing out on Monday. I guess a mention of marginal rain chances is in order for both days. The only discrepancy with the ECMWF model was that it wanted to show the rain waiting until Monday, with slightly higher chances. I'm not really sold that we see any rain at all, even in the extended here. Might just see an increase in clouds.





The folks at the HPC aren't sold on us getting any rain for the next seven days either, as you can see. Looks like those remnants of Karen could bring some extra rain to the east coast.





As mentioned before, the remnants of Karen aren't really going to go anything except blow a little extra moisture back to the northwest, bring us some extra clouds, and our neighbors to the east a little extra rain maybe.



There is an area of low pressure between Bermuda and Puerto Rico, but at the moment it doesn't look like it will do much.



Another disturbance south/southwest of the Cape Verde islands is gradually drifting northwest. At the moment, conditions are favorable for it to intensify, but upper-level winds are expected to become less favorable later in the week. Sometimes, this time of year, disturbances like this tend to curve back to the northeast once they get into the Atlantic, anyway. We'll just have to wait and see what it does.









The most significant tropical cyclone on the globe right now is Typhoon Danas, headed for landfall in Japan late tomorrow evening, by their time. It looks like it will make landfall near Sasebo as a minimal typhoon, and by its second landfall near Iwakuni in the wee hours of Wednesday morning, it is forecast to be down to tropical-storm strength. Still, these storms, especially on countries that are islands, can be problematic with some flooding and wind damage, so . . . worth mentioning in passing.



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Enjoy the great weather. It's October. See you in the funny papers.

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2. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
9:53 PM GMT on October 09, 2013
mgwxta19 has created a new entry.
1. whitewabit (Mod)
2:13 AM GMT on October 08, 2013
nights in the mid 40's and highs in the low 70's all this week .. if we could only have weather like this year round ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 33644

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About mgwxta19

Howdy. I'm a former weather student who likes blogging but is sometimes distracted by boring things like magic shows or fun things like regular work.