So it's a cold November night as I write this around 10-10:30 p.m. We're around 35 in Cullman, and most places hovering around the 40-degree mark across North Alabama and Southern Middle Tennessee.
We made it up to 56 degrees today with sunny skies. Our Low this morning was 38, but since we're now down to 35 I guess that will go down as the official low, as close as it is to midnight. Maybe a degree or two cooler is possible for the 11 p.m. observation. But I guess only meteorologists nitpick about such things.
And as you can see on the national view, the active weather is nowhere in our proximity. We're under nice northwest flow, keeping us cool, and strong high pressure. They're having some snow out around the Rocky Mountains and the Pacific Northwest region.
Tomorrow the high pressure hangs on but its gradually shifting to the east. We'll warm up a little bit. Probably see a High in the upper-60's.
Just by the way, I think we'll see some patches of dense fog overnight, and while the average Low temperature for the TN Valley will probably be from about 34-38, a few places (I would include the Cullman area in this and places around bodies of water, even Smith Lake for example) may get down to freezing, and some of this fog is likely to freeze on the road just enough to cause a few slick spots. So if driving tonight or early in the morning, just take it a little slower and mainly watch for any spots on bridges. Just a minor caveat there. Also obviously these kinds of temperatures are not good for plants or even pets that are outside. In fact, if you look at the temperature graphic way up at the beginning of this discussion, you'll see counties just to our south under a Freeze Warning and then counties further down into Alabama under a Frost Advisory - they used two different shades of blue to make the distinction there.
On Saturday we see more warming as the cold front edges a little closer and our high pressure system eases slowly to the east. Should stay sunny with a High in the lower 70's and a Low in the mid-40's.
Sunday, Veteran's Day, temperatures should warm just a little more, maybe into the mid-70's during the day and for the morning Low probably upper 40's. Should start to notice some clouds moving in and probably a bit of a breeze in advance of this fairly strong cold front.
Monday looks stormy as the cold front pushes through, and we may well see some stronger thunderstorms with high wind gusts. However, since it is the month of November, you have to watch for any severe weather threat . . . so I'm just going to say that based on current model guidance, severe weather looks doubtful - just not enough instability to work with.
Tuesday, high pressure sets in quickly behind the front, and our wind flow looks more zonal from the west. We'll probably be in the mid 50's on Tuesday with mostly sunny skies.
Wednesday, looks like mostly sunny skies and probably warming up to around 60. Morning Low will probably be down into the 30's.
And Thursday, end of the forecast period, even though the center of high pressure is moving a little off to our northeast, we should stay mostly sunny and fairly cool - High probably in the lower 60's.
Although the only rain is on Monday, and it'll probably be a big line of thunderstorms, we might squeeze out about an inch of rain, maybe slightly higher in our northwest counties. And of course, if a strong storm were to cause any brief flooding in a spot, it'd be higher . . . but this stuff from HPC is just a good generalization.