This is Monday, well after our current longwave trough has sailed out to sea, and another trough coming from way out west is nosing in here. Looks like a strong cold front here, so definite chances for thunderstorms. Although it's seven days out, I'm tempted to say "likely" thunderstorms, and since this is the month of November, we will have to monitor this system carefully for severe weather potential. Having said that, current model guidance is showing plenty of forcing and wind shear but not enough instability to support anything more than a few high wind gusts with a linear mode of convection.
Overall it looks like a great week around here; of course keeping the poor folks on the East Coast in our thoughts, because by Wednesday this shortwave we are dealing with tonight will be another nor'easter for them. You might never see another one as severe as Tropical Cyclone Sandy in your life, but still . . . the timing of it . . . talk about rotten luck . . . these people are just trying to get over something horrible, and I can't say I'd wish such a chain of events on anyone. It's likely to first affect the Carolina coast and should be just a normal nor'easter like people are used to seeing - obviously nowhere near as bad as "Sandy." If you are in touch with people up there, they may already be aware of it, but . . . I'd make sure. This sucks. At times I wonder if perhaps the most extreme of the global warming alarmists or even the Mayan calendar-makers (half-joking here) were/are on to something. Of course, I've heard from people who lived through the 1970's that the weather was whacko back then, too. Even if it is a natural cycle, it is one that I wouldn't mind seeing burn itself out fairly soon . . . so many crazy weather events . . . I'm quite young in this science, but in my limited experience it does seem like overkill.
Obviously they'll have heavy rains up there where this nor'easter hits, but around here, our northeast areas might see up to a half inch, areas like Cullman/Huntsville will probably see roughly one quarter-inch, and some of our western areas like the Shoals might just see about a tenth of an inch - just for some rough estimates from HPC here. Light rain any way you slice it. Google +Twitter
Oh well, you might as well enjoy the nicer weather we're having though, while being concerned for those in the path of danger. See you in the funny papers . . . wishing the best for our neighbors up on the East coast.
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