A Little Rain Tonight/Tomorrow

By: mgwxta19 , 12:29 AM GMT on November 06, 2012

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FORECAST:



Tuesday: Light rain in the morning. Clearing by early afternoon. High 58, Low 45



Wednesday: Partly cloudy. Marginal chance of a light shower or two. High 58, Low 39



Thursday: Sunny. Cool. High 60, Low 38



EXTENDED OUTLOOK:



Friday: Sunny. High 65, Low 35



Saturday: Sunny. High 70, Low 39



Sunday: Gradually increasing clouds. High 73, Low 46



Monday: Partly cloudy with a 40% chance of thunderstorms. High 74, Low 58



NOTES:



Here is a look back at our rather cool October. 



If you would like to help the victims of T.C. Sandy, the Red Cross has a page dedicated to it. I'm no expert in these things, but they are the ones I would most trust with making a donation to . . . have been hearing that they are doing a lot.



DISCUSSION:









So it was a day with a fair amount of sunshine, but we had some fog this morning and some clouds later today. Our High in Cullman was 58, and the Low was 32. Wow. I thought it felt colder than what I'd forecast. There were probably a few slick spots on the roads in spots this morning. Slaps self in head, try to remember to mention chances of freezing fog next time. Anyway, for the moment, we had a shortwave trough rotating through. Our temperatures are in the 50's throughout the TN Valley, and it's just going to be light rain tonight and perhaps lasting into tomorrow morning. Low tonight will probably be in the mid-40's.









The rain should be almost completely gone by midday tomorrow, and skies should start to gradually clear. We probably will see a High in the upper 50's.









On Wednesday another shortwave (which previously looked like it was going to stay up around the Great Lakes) is likely to wind through here. I'll mention only minimal chances of a few isolated light showers with this. A lot of us might only see an increase in clouds as it moves through. Sticking with a High in the upper 50's. Morning Low probably around 40.









Then by Thursday it's just the plain old northwest flow from the longwave trough, and it looks sunny and fairly cool. Probably a High around 60-63 and a Low about in the 38-40 range.



The weekend looks quite nice as well. There is only one feature I wanted to look at in the long range, just in case:









This is Monday, well after our current longwave trough has sailed out to sea, and another trough coming from way out west is nosing in here. Looks like a strong cold front here, so definite chances for thunderstorms. Although it's seven days out, I'm tempted to say "likely" thunderstorms, and since this is the month of November, we will have to monitor this system carefully for severe weather potential. Having said that, current model guidance is showing plenty of forcing and wind shear but not enough instability to support anything more than a few high wind gusts with a linear mode of convection.



Overall it looks like a great week around here; of course keeping the poor folks on the East Coast in our thoughts, because by Wednesday this shortwave we are dealing with tonight will be another nor'easter for them. You might never see another one as severe as Tropical Cyclone Sandy in your life, but still . . . the timing of it . . . talk about rotten luck . . . these people are just trying to get over something horrible, and I can't say I'd wish such a chain of events on anyone. It's likely to first affect the Carolina coast and should be just a normal nor'easter like people are used to seeing - obviously nowhere near as bad as "Sandy." If you are in touch with people up there, they may already be aware of it, but . . . I'd make sure. This sucks. At times I wonder if perhaps the most extreme of the global warming alarmists or even the Mayan calendar-makers (half-joking here) were/are on to something. Of course, I've heard from people who lived through the 1970's that the weather was whacko back then, too. Even if it is a natural cycle, it is one that I wouldn't mind seeing burn itself out fairly soon . . . so many crazy weather events . . . I'm quite young in this science, but in my limited experience it does seem like overkill.





Obviously they'll have heavy rains up there where this nor'easter hits, but around here, our northeast areas might see up to a half inch, areas like Cullman/Huntsville will probably see roughly one quarter-inch, and some of our western areas like the Shoals might just see about a tenth of an inch - just for some rough estimates from HPC here. Light rain any way you slice it.


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Oh well, you might as well enjoy the nicer weather we're having though, while being concerned for those in the path of danger. See you in the funny papers . . . wishing the best for our neighbors up on the East coast.

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About mgwxta19

Howdy. I'm a former weather student who likes blogging but is sometimes distracted by boring things like magic shows or fun things like regular work.