So it was a sunny day here in the Tennessee Valley for the most part. Our High in Cullman was 80, and to show you how dry the air has been, our Low this morning was all the way down to 44 - five degrees less than predicted. Oh well, it's my favorite season, when things are in flux, and the process of decay is strangely beautiful . . . leaves falling from the trees and such.
And we have a line of showers moving through the region along this cold front. Temperatures behind it, especially in Tennessee, are starting to drop toward the 50's, and even in some of our cities like Huntsville and Decatur, winds have shifted to the northwest and are gusting to roughly 20-30 mph. So it may very well be that this front has come in early . . . and we might not see hardly any rain tomorrow after all. Let's take a look in detail.
The GFS model seems to support this. We might see a light shower somewhere tomorrow (more likely early in the morning) or some clouds, but certainly by afternoon things will be clearing up. The temperature is a little more of a challenge: The front will certainly cool us down, but with the sun breaking out it'll try to fight the cold air advection a little bit. We'll probably top out in the mid 60's.
Monday should be a quiet weather day for us; note the shortwave trough in the Missouri area there. That will probably bring us some additional rain, but it looks like it'll all be overnight between Monday and Tuesday. Just kind of light showers like we're having tonight probably. As for the day Monday, mostly sunny skies and a High in the lower 60's. Morning low probably close to 40-43.
The GFS and NAM models were in good agreement that during the day on Tuesday will be mostly clear too, with this shortwave trough passing overnight - just a little rain from it. It's tough to call the temperatures for Tuesday, guess you could say a High around 60, but this trough may try to cool us into the upper 50's. The Low Monday night/Tuesday morning will probably be elevated into the mid 40's due to the higher humidity as the rain comes through.
On Wednesday our northwest flow is firmly in place, and it just looks nice and sunny. Highs will probably be around 60-62 and Lows around 40.
Thursday also a very nice day. Temperatures will gradually warm up, but nighttime Lows should still be pretty chilly. I'm gonna' say a High in the mid-60's and a Low perhaps dipping into the upper 30's here. Cool, dry air.
Friday also just a very nice day. I think Highs in the upper 60's or even approaching 70 by this time, and Lows should be hanging around down in the lower 40's. This is really shaping up to be a great week, especially if you like to spend time outside.
And Saturday, the weekend . . . still mostly sunny, and Highs will probably be in the lower 70's with Lows hopping up into the mid to upper 40's - probably mid 40's - but as both the GFS and ECMWF models have suggestions of a (rather potent) storm system developing in the West/Midwest, I wonder if some of that moisture might edge out ahead of it. This does remind me that November is typically our secondary severe weather season in the Southeast region, so while you are setting your clocks back, it might also be a good idea to change the batteries in your weather radio - not a bad idea to change them in smoke detectors and such too. I normally forget these things, but I read the reminders from NWS/EMA sources and kinda' pass it on as friendly advice. Just by the way, if you don't have a weather radio, you can get these things for about $30 at most grocery stores. And that's less money than most people pay monthly for their TV or internet for something that lasts many, many years. The batteries are just in case the power goes out. I love the Midland models like I provided the link to (also the kind most grocery stores sell), because they now take regular AA batteries, fairly cheap and easier to put in than those square batteries we had in the old days . . . heh.
Oh well, enjoy the nice week . . . even the little bit of rain early in the week probably will barely be enough to notice, for a lot of people. HPC is showing just trace rainfall totals, a quarter-inch at very most for the whole period, and I agree with that.
As I was writing this, Alabama's football team pulled off an INCREDIBLE comeback to beat LSU with only about a minute to spare. I'm not a huge sports fan, but in the spirit of state pride - ROLL TIDE! :)
P.S. Also should mention that, mainly on Wednesday, it looks like there is a threat for the area affected by Tropical Cyclone Sandy in the East/Northeast U.S. to get another (much weaker, of course) nor'easter storm. This is very minor compared to Sandy, but obviously it is also very unwelcome news for folks who live there. So anybody you know up that way, just tell them to get ready for round two . . . even though Sandy was a rare, historic thing . . . this is just a regular nor'easter. Dan Satterfield, who did some great work in weather in these parts for many years but is now bestowing his gifts on the fine folks in Maryland, has posted a blog about this.