Pleasant Start to Warmer New Week

By: mgwxta19 , 2:38 AM GMT on October 27, 2013

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FORECAST:



Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy - minimal chance of a brief shower. Mild temperatures. High 68, Low 45



Monday: Partly to mostly cloudy - slight chance of a passing shower or two. Mild temperatures. High 70, Low 49



Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Somewhat warmer. High 75, Low 50



EXTENDED OUTLOOK:



Wednesday: Partly cloudy. High 77, Low 54



Thursday: Cloudy with showers/thunderstorms likely. High 76, Low 59



Friday: A few lingering showers, mainly early in the day. High 68, Low 58



Saturday: Sunny and cooler. High 63, Low 42



NOTES:



Got another SKYWARN class this Tuesday night at 6 p.m. that you can actually take online. The next physical one near here is in Moulton 6 p.m. November 12th, at the Lawrence County EMA office.



And if you've ever wondered what makes autumn so beautiful and colorful around here, might want to check this out.



DISCUSSION:









So as I'm writing this close to 9 p.m., we are generally in the 50's across the Tennessee Valley. Tonight will be a bit warmer than last night, if warm is the word. Temperatures are about to start moderating and even warming over the next few days, though, this coming week. We'll take a detailed look at that.



Right now we're at 48 in Cullman. Our High today was 61, with a Low of 28 under beautiful skies and only light winds.



Huntsville saw a High of 63 and a Low of 29. Decatur saw a High of 63 and a Low of 28. And Muscle Shoals saw a High of 66 and a Low of 30.







A longwave trough is draped over the Ohio Valley. A shortwave trough in the Texas/Oklahoma region, if you look up at 500 millibars.













And there is, after all, a weak cold frontal boundary associated with this shortwave. Could cause some stronger thunderstorms in Texas. We remain under the influence of high pressure.







That shortwave trough does eject toward the east, toward us, tomorrow. But I'm not convinced it does much. I think our high pressure center is strong enough and close enough that we probably don't even see light, spotty rain, just an increase in clouds. Highs will probably be in the mid-60's and Lows in the mid-40's.







On Monday, as the high pressure center moves off to the east, just barely enough moisture for maybe a passing shower. And as this weak front sorta' washes out as it passes through the area, our winds aloft do turn back briefly to the northwest. And we're going to go under some fairly strong ridging for a few days while a robust upper-level low-pressure system shows us on the far West Coast and has the potential to bring some storminess as it traverses the Continental U.S. Monday Highs should rise into the 70's, and I might mention a marginal chance of a shower. Debating on whether or not to do that for Sunday.







Tuesday looks like a nice day with more sun than clouds. Our temperatures may get into the upper 70's, which will certainly feel warm. Certainly no more freezes anticipated in this 7-day period. As for the storm system out west, looks like there is some potential for severe thunderstorms, but with model discrepancies and such, it's too soon to really call. The SPC is, of course, watching it, but they are appropriately holding off on issuing any outlooks until things are better-defined. But folks out west will want to watch this just in case.









This storm system to the west still looks its strongest to me on Wednesday, and people in Arkansas, eastern parts of Texas, northern Louisiana, will want to watch this for sure. I think there might be some sort of severe weather problem at this point. For us, a mix of sun and clouds, and highs approaching 80. Wow . . .







The GFS is still very aggressive in bringing this line of storms into our area early Halloween morning. Notice the upper low is well to our north. At this point, model guidance is showing ample shear but almost no instability, so while we'll have to watch further developments, it looks most likely to have some showers, a few rumbles of thunder maybe, and some gusty winds, and that's it.











However, as is often the case, the ECMWF model is a bit slower. And this would suggest showers/thunderstorms late Halloween night or even as late as Friday morning, is when things get going. It's tempting to just go with a blend of the two, but I guess I'll lean a little more toward the ECMWF. It's done well so far this season, and plus, this system does have a fairly strong ridge to overcome, while the main forcing is well to our north. Thanks to Mark Rose from NWS Birmingham for pointing that out. I knew I felt like the ECMWF was more correct but couldn't put my finger on why.







On Friday morning, also the GFS model has the front clear of the area, while the ECMWF has it still dragging its way out of here. I'm not going to go with either one of these solutions 100%, but I'll lean a little more toward the latter scenario.







Saturday, end of the forecast period, looks like good northwest flow behind this fairly strong cold front and some high pressure moving in. So cooler, drier air. Still, I think it'll be "cool" and not "cold" like it was this morning.



The tropics are looking pretty much dead for this season. Since our secondary severe weather season is next month - starts this next Friday - going to leave the tropics alone and focus on any convective potential in this segment. And the threat of any stronger storms Thursday into Friday is minimal, given current data. Having said that, the timing is a bit ironic, and if any instability were to become available, there could be some problems, so, of course, everyone's watching it.





And rainfall amounts, taking into account the Thursday/Friday rain, will probably average around 0.5-1 inch around here.



Everybody have a great week, hope Halloween doesn't rain out, will keep our fingers crossed and maybe cook some lucky gingerbread men, and I'll see you in the funny papers.

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1. DaveFive
12:00 PM GMT on November 09, 2013
Hello mgwxta19, I'm Dave from San Jose, CA. your weather forecast is accurate and your maps and photos are great. The weather in San Jose has been precipitation free since April. Quite unusual.
Member Since: August 16, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 311

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About mgwxta19

Howdy. I'm a former weather student who likes blogging but is sometimes distracted by boring things like magic shows or fun things like regular work.