|By: mgwxta19, 10:33 PM GMT on October 10, 2013||+0|
Friday: Mostly sunny. Mild. High 80, Low 56
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Mild. High 81, Low 58
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Mild. High 82, Low 59
Columbus Day: Partly cloudy. High 81, Low 60
Tuesday: Partly cloudy. High 81, Low 61
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of showers/thunderstorms. High 78, Low 64
Thursday: Gradual clearing. High 79, Low 59
There will be no SKYWARN spotter classes as long as the stupidity continues in the nation's capital. However, ironically, the next one was scheduled for October 17th, at 6 p.m. at Cullman's city hall.
On that note though, I'm not entirely sure if NWS employees will even see their paychecks until the shutdown is (hopefully) over. I've heard mixed reports on that, and it's not the sort of thing you want to ask them personally. So if you would like to shoot our local NWS a note thanking them for the fine job they do, even when under pressure, you may email them here. They might appreciate it. Or shoot them a note on Twitter or FaceBook maybe. I want to publicly thank them for working hard no matter what the circumstances. Especially those offices around the country who have dealt with especially inclement weather lately.
Once again, a very, very nice day across the Tennessee Valley. It actually reminds me of the late novelist Kurt Vonnegut's catchphrase: "If this isn't nice, I don't know what is." If I had to pick a favorite month of the year, weatherwise, it just might be October. Also the most delightful holiday of the year . . . well, for some of us. Have mercy on our twisted souls.
Most places in the 70's. Some spots hovering around the 80-degree mark. Our High in Huntsville was 82. The Low was 59. The Low temperature is especially higher than what was forecast. Which means we had quite a bit more moisture overnight. Needs to look into this. Okay. And Cullman saw a High of 80 and a Low of 54. I'm still undecided as to which spot would better serve my readers, to forecast for. I'm leaning toward Cullman, though . . . I may be with Sara Evans on that, who recently held a concert in Cullman to sort of symbolize the "rebound" from our recent violent tornado outbreak. In this case, I'm just happy that my forecast for Cullman was actually accurate. Hmmmmmm.
Hey, the government is shut down, if they can act goofy, so can I.
And yeah, we did see some clouds today, but they were certainly of the fair-weather-type. At the moment I can't find a cloud in the sky.
Our winds have mainly shifted to the northwest and are light, like 4-8 mph during most of the day. We are under the influence of high pressure. Karen's remnants continue to be a little pesky along the East Coast. And as you can see, the next big weather-changer is a fairy deep upper-level trough located in the Southwest U.S.
Out ahead of that trough is a cold front, which you can pick out pretty well just from the temperature gradient. Again, the the Rockies have some snow, and the Midwest has some chances for severe thunderstorms. It doesn't look as rough as the last system, though - or in case I've got my "systems" out of order, just to be clear, the one that produced the violent tornado in Wayne, Nebraska and dumped a bunch of snow on the same poor folks who had just been flooded.
As a piece of curiosity, some parts of the TN Valley did see some "virga" today from what moisture was left, which is just rain that evaporated before it ever makes it to the ground. Kinda' nifty.
Tomorrow looks like another nice day. Our gradual warming trend continues. I think I'll go with mostly sunny skies and a High around 80. Winds light from the northwest. We may have some fog tonight, dense fog, mainly along bodies of water but maybe other places too. I'm hesitant to put the Low any lower than 55 though. Seems like with a little moisture hanging around, might trap some of the heat and keep it in the mid-to-upper 50's.
Saturday the cold front approaches, but we probably don't even see much of an increase in clouds here. Winds should shift more to the west. Little change in temperature.
And it looks like this front may just fizzle out over our area on Saturday, probably not even bringing light showers, just a few more clouds, maybe barely enough to notice. As whatever is left passes through the area though, may see winds shifting a bit back to the northwest. No major temperature change though. This front is practically a non-event.
For the extended, looks like another cold front will take aim at us mid-week. The GFS model thinks it will pass through and leave us nice weather on Thursday. The ECMWF has its moisture dragging on for several days. For the moment I'm trending with the GFS.
In the far East Atlantic, we are close to having another tropical depression. However, within the next roughly five days, as it drifts to the northwest, the upper-level winds will probably try to shear it apart. A lot of these systems also, if they survive those winds, tend to recurve to the northeast this time of year. It is rather unlikely that this will pose any threat to land even in the long-term, but of course, it's worth keeping just a casual eye on.
The storm aiming at India looks horrible, maybe even stronger than the typhoon that recently hit Okinawa.
Our rainfall totals for the next seven days are forecast to be in the 0.5-0.75 inch range, and I think that's right. Almost all of that should come on Wednesday of next week, maybe a little bit early Thursday if you take the ECMWF model's discrepancy into account. Funny story from college days, this really dopey graduate-student-lab guy I had in a severe weather class . . . when I mentioned the ECMWF, he said he had never actually looked at it, but it was supposed to be "sick". I had actually never heard the word "sick" used in a positive connotation like that, and he explained that he meant it was way better than the more standard models we were used to using. I'm not so sure about that. I think they all have their quirks. It would be interesting to study why the GFS and ECMWF are usually at odds, though. For all I know, it could have been designed that way for political reasons.
And yes, that was just a corny attempt to make light of the current stupidity that has made things rough on even National Weather Service employees. It's nothing new, either, not really. A former NWS employee I won't name said recently, "I always used to get my paycheck whenever they went through all this stupid stuff." I'm not clear on whether modern employees are getting paid or not while the shutdown lasts . . . I mean they'd still get paid later, but . . . hats off to all of them . . . they do it because they love it and think it's important. There are some within the field of meteorology I've noticed just want to make big bucks and be sorta' famous. So yeah, a tip of the hat to the ones who do it for the right reasons, even when things are looking rough.
And that's all I've got for this week. Weather looks great . . . enjoy it . . . and I'll see you in the funny papers.
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Howdy. I'm a former weather student who likes blogging but is sometimes distracted by boring things like magic shows or fun things like regular work.
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