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By: louisianaboy444 , 6:29 PM GMT on July 10, 2013
Hello, This is your Tropical Update for July 10, 2013
We have Tropical Storm Chantal barely hanging on in the Eastern Caribbean just south of Hispaniola. As of 200pm the numbers were as follows:
Location: 16.5N 73.0W
Maximum Sustained Winds: 45 mph
Central Pressure: 1011 mb
Movement: West at 29 mph
The first graphic I would like to show is the GOES-East Visible Satellite Image
I have highlighted the winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere in green and winds in the middle and upper levels in orange. The strong flow in the lower levels is the reason why this storm is moving so quickly to the west. The westerly flow in the middle levels is currently shearing the storm. This is the reason why the storm looks squashed on its western side.
The GOES-East 24 hr Wind Shear Tendency shows this strong shear in the Central Caribbean. This shear should continue through the next 24 hrs. For this reason I am leaning towards this storm staying fairly weak if not falling apart through this evening and the overnight hours.
This is the 06Z GFS 200-850mb Wind Shear product. I have circled the area of highest westerly shear located in the Central Caribbean. Tropical Storm Chantal will be embedded within this flow. This high shear environment plus land interaction with Haiti and Cuba makes a good argument for the storm to rip apart.
If it can hold together and re-emerge north of Cuba the environment could become a bit more favorable. The first image below is the 06Z GFS 200-850mb shear product for the period of 48 hrs out while the second picture is the 00Z Canadian model at 60 hours out. At this time Tropical Storm Chantal would be somewhere north of Cuba. Both models show decreasing wind shear in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico as an Upper-level low backs to the Southwest and creates a favorable upper-level environment.
For this reason I believe if Tropical Storm Chantal survives the passage over Cuba and moves a bit further west into the Gulf of Mexico, restrengthening may be a slight possibility. Some of the latest models are starting to show this system sneaking into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico as a very weak system or a tropical wave.
The National Hurricane Center track still currently takes it over Florida. They are also not very optimistic about this storm strengthening any further through the continuation of its life. This is a reasonable assessment since none of the intensity models below show much strengthening
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected within the next 24 hours.
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