Tropical Overview 07/08/13

By: louisianaboy444 , 2:37 PM GMT on July 08, 2013

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Hello this is your tropical briefing for July 08, 2013:



This is the GOES-East Water Vapor image of the tropical Atlantic. I have highlighted two areas. One area is an upper-level low which is retrograding back to the west moving towards the Florida Keys. This upper-level low will produce some heavier rains over Florida through the next 2-3 days.The other area east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is our Tropical Storm Chantal.

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Tropical Storm Chantal as of the 8:00am advisory was located at 10.6N 50.6W moving to the west at 26mph. Its minimum central pressure was 1007mb and winds were at 40mph.The 12Z 850-700hpa CIMSS Steering product below shows that Chantal is located in a belt of very strong trade winds. This is the reason why TS Chantal is racing off to the west at a fairly high clip. Chantal will be reaching the Lesser Antilles by tomorrow morning. These strong trade winds to the north may be helping to keep the dry air to the north of the system and limiting dry air intrusion into the storm. This is why I feel the convection has been able to readily persist without interference from dry air.

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Here are the tropical models regarding strength. Most models show some modest strengthening as this system approaches the Caribbean through the next 24-48 hours. The environment will be marginally conducive for further strengthening at this time. Most models peak this storm with moderate/upper Tropical Storm intensity before a non-conducive environment and land-interaction start to impact the storm after 48 hours.

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Here is the 200mb-850mb wind shear product on the 06Z GFS model at 48 hours. The low pressure approaching Hispaniola is Chantal. You can see a branch of the sub-tropical jet stream starting to create some westerly shear on the system. This may begin to interfere with the storm as it approaches the Greater Antilles. This is why most of the intensity models drop off significantly at this time-frame.

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After its passage through the Caribbean, what is left of Chantal should move to the west-northwest to northwest into the Bahamas. 06Z GFS 700mb geo-potential heights distinctly show the weakness in the ridge over the Eastern parts of the United States. This weakness should help to pull this system northward very near the eastern seaboard through days 4 and 5.

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The Spaghetti models shown below seem to agree on this solution. A slight bend back to the west-northwest could be possible in the long-term, as the ridge attempts to nose back in,taking this system into the east coast.

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This is the official National Hurricane Center track. By the time this system is in the Bahamas the National Hurricane Center is showing a very weak system. The strength of this system at this time-frame is very tough to predict. Land-interaction with the Greater Antilles always seems to yield a tough intensity forecast. How strong it is at this point depends on how long it stays on land and whether it goes over the more mountainous regions of these islands versus flatter areas. Hopefully we will know more in the coming days.

Besides a few strong waves behind this system the rest of the tropics remain quite for now.

Trevor

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