Severe threat today, Sunday, in N. IL

By: juslivn , 8:20 PM GMT on April 24, 2014

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Looks like we're in for some rain and the potential for some severe in the next few days here in Northern Illinois and Chicagoland.
Hang on to your hats and get those gutters cleaned and ready, potential is there for over 4 iches of rain in the next 7 days.

Feel free to post severe if I am not around, or anything you'd like to share (within reason, of course :) Stay safe all ships! Enjoy Spring!
Add: I'll fix these pics and resize after work later tonight... It's HUGE! LOL

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370. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
8:13 PM GMT on July 06, 2014
juslivn has created a new entry.
369. Barefootontherocks
6:43 PM GMT on July 06, 2014
LPL. Good timing. Was just gonna link the 1130 convective outlook.

Have a safe day.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 157 Comments: 19178
368. juslivn
6:38 PM GMT on July 06, 2014
Lots of cloud cover for about 2 hours now. However, the sun is trying to peek out now a bit. Let's hope it stays away so the energy can't build up too much instability. NWS Chicago basically agreed lol



The area remains under a 'Slight Risk' for severe storms this evening. However, some additional uncertainty has been added to the mix due to widespread cloud cover over our area and to the northwest where storms are expected to develop, intensify and then spread southeastward into northern Illinois and northwest Indiana. Even with this uncertainty, the pieces are still in place to support some fairly widespread thunderstorm coverage this evening and for some of these storms to become severe. The primary severe threat is damaging winds, but large hail to the size of quarters or a bit larger is also a concern, especially in northwest Illinois. Even in storms below severe limits, frequent cloud to ground lightning and heavy downpours resulting in ponding on roadways are possible. If you have outdoor plans this evening, be alert, have a plan in place to easily access safe shelter and receive warnings if any are issued.
Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 87 Comments: 10166
367. juslivn
2:35 PM GMT on July 06, 2014
Hmmm, sleeper storm ? I think this may get ugly especially for those along I-90 and 43/94 traveling back home from Wisconsin right about that time.
Hope people are smart if it gets bad and get off the highways to real shelter to wait it out. Traffic jams by Madison /Milwaukee are NOT fun in storms. Been there done that😁


SPC AC 061245

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 AM CDT SUN JUL 06 2014

VALID 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND
A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...

AN INITIALLY QUASI-ZONAL POLAR BELT OF WESTERLIES SITUATED ALONG THE
U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO THE PROGRESSION OF
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH FROM SRN MANITOBA INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THIS MIDLEVEL PERTURBATION WILL BE ATTENDED BY A BELT OF 40-50-KT
FLOW AT 500 MB WHICH WILL DEVELOP FROM THE NRN PLAINS TOWARD THE MID
MS VALLEY.

AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN ONTARIO WILL
DEEPEN WHILE DEVELOPING GENERALLY EWD TOWARD THE QUEBEC BORDER.
MEANWHILE...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE FROM THE NRN PLAINS
INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE WRN EXTENSION OF THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
MORE SLOWLY SWD BEFORE EVENTUALLY STALLING OVER THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS.

...UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO LOWER MO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING FROM MN
TO THE U.P. OF MI WITH THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY BEING FORCED BY HEIGHT
FALLS/DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE MANITOBA SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY PERSIST THIS MORNING WITH A RISK FOR SMALL HAIL
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF MODEST MUCAPE SAMPLED BY THE 12Z MPX
SOUNDING.

IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY-DAY ACTIVITY...THINNING CLOUDS COUPLED WITH
BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD A STRONGLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WITH
MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3000-4000 J/KG. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PARTS
OF CNTRL WI TO NERN IA AS THE REGION IS GLANCED BY THE SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

GIVEN THE FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND A VERTICALLY
VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR...SUPERCELLS AND/OR INTENSE MULTICELLS APPEAR PROBABLE AS THE
INITIAL STORM MODE WITH A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A COUPLE
OF TORNADOES. WITH TIME...MERGING STORM-SCALE OUTFLOWS MAY PROMOTE
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO SEWD-MOVING CLUSTERS WITH THE THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
IL...PERHAPS INTO NERN MO.

ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF LOWER MI LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS
DIURNALLY ENHANCED STORMS SPREAD SEWD ACROSS LAKE MI. FARTHER TO THE
W ACROSS SERN NEB/NERN KS/NWRN MO...ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO A SWD-MOVING COMPLEX WITH A RISK FOR LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. FOR THESE LATTER TWO
AREAS...GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN SEVERE TSTM COVERAGE PRECLUDES
INTRODUCTION OF A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK AT THIS JUNCTURE.

..MEAD/COHEN.. 07/06/2014

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1426Z (9:26AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 87 Comments: 10166
366. juslivn
12:44 PM GMT on July 06, 2014
Hi ylee and bf, thanks and hope your holiday was great as well!

We went to a party at my sisters. Then came home and watched the mOvie The Millers. Absolutely hysterical! Laughed and laughed. Kind of raunchy but funny.

Back to work today. Showing and then should be home by the storms.

Back at ya latta!
Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 87 Comments: 10166
365. Ylee
4:47 PM GMT on July 05, 2014
Another blob in IA headed your way; will this train of rain never end?

Hope you have a good weekend, regardless!
Member Since: February 3, 2011 Posts: 97 Comments: 16300
364. Barefootontherocks
6:18 PM GMT on July 04, 2014
Have fun today.
;)


glitter-graphics.com
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 157 Comments: 19178
363. Barefootontherocks
1:58 AM GMT on July 03, 2014
Look what popped up after the Arthur theme played. My favorite BeeGees. lol Have a great night!

Neat you get to go to Canada this year. The passport thing will work out.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 157 Comments: 19178
362. Barefootontherocks
1:46 AM GMT on July 03, 2014
Wow. Looked like it might have been and I was wondering if they were gonna call the second line a derecho. Wow. 8 tornadoes. A full weather day and evening into night. Hope the rest of your summer holds easy weather.

Another Arthur
;)
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 157 Comments: 19178
361. juslivn
1:11 AM GMT on July 03, 2014
Am I reading the blogs correctly??? Not one person has played the 'song' yet??? OY, who's on main-lurk staff these dayz? Smh lolol

a href="" target="_blank">Link
Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 87 Comments: 10166
360. juslivn
10:07 PM GMT on July 02, 2014
NWS Chicago Romeoville:
*426 PM CDT July 2nd: 6/30 Storm Damage Survey Update*
Updated information has been sent from the survey team that assessed storm damage in eastern Kankakee County and in northwest Indiana. 5 EF-1 tornadoes were confirmed on this survey, bringing the event total to 8 EF-1 tornadoes in our forecast area!
For more information on the Kankakee and NW Indiana survey, click on the link below:
http://go.usa.gov/XaMR
Stay tuned for continued updates at the event webpage:

Link
Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 87 Comments: 10166
359. juslivn
8:49 PM GMT on July 02, 2014
More on the June 30 storms from NWS Chicago Romeoville Office:

"Two separate Derecho Events on June 30, 2014

The extensive damage sustained from two separate lines of thunderstorms on Monday, June 30th has been officially determined to be from two separate derecho events. During these two events, 80--100 MPH straight line winds along with several tornadoes of EF-1 intensity produced wind damage from Central Iowa east into Michigan and Ohio."




Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 87 Comments: 10166
358. juslivn
3:01 AM GMT on July 02, 2014
Oh I forgot to post this from our NWS Chicago/Romeoville. There are soooo many pics online of the storm damage and stories from yesterday, but here's the NWS initial statement this evening...


"515 PM CDT
Updated information from survey teams:
...Two Brief Tornadoes Confirmed...
The National Weather Service has now confirmed 2 EF-1 tornadoes occurred Monday evening. The first near Earlville Illinois, and the second in northeast Plainfield and northwest Romeoville Illinois. Both tornadoes were embedded within areas of widespread damaging winds.
Preliminary damage survey results from Earlville released earlier this afternoon found no conclusive evidence of any tornadic damage, however aerial photos recieved from ABC 7 Chicago revealed a distinctive scarring pattern in corn crops visible from above that indicated there was a brief tornado touchdown west of Earlville tracking east-southeast into Earlville. So while much of the damage in Earlville was caused by straight line winds, thanks to the aerial photos, we are now able to confirm an EF-1 tornado briefly touched down on the southwest side of Earlville."
Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 87 Comments: 10166
357. juslivn
2:46 AM GMT on July 02, 2014
Hi NEw, yaaas it was stressful because yewts were supposed to come over to the house. My in-laws have a house full. The funeral was just amazing. The wedding was even more amazing. Work was crazy and I cut my vacation short...The hotel tried to charge us $400 more today on our credit card...Dang!!! I need a new Month to just start over, lol!
I hope the line pushes the storm out to sea? I have not looked at all, but at this point, I'll be happy to track a hurricane from the mid-west and I'm all set if anyone needs to come inland for shelter, ;)

I just need to be here and lurk. We are going to Canada in August for the convention this year. I'm so excited! But, I haven't gotten my passport back? I was told my birth certificate wasn't right and didn't have the right number on it. It was my original and even had the seal. But, they said it wasn't right. I hope that doesn't screw things up :( I suppose there's like thousands and thousands of peeps walking around born in NYC with the wrong birth certificate from '63? uhhhh yeah... we're all just 'wrong'. kk thanks NYC. rant off. Random, but that's what is on me mind...

Happy July! Hope you all have a great July, GG and Sandi! Thanks for the wabbits! Have a great fourth GG, NEw! And, Sandi, I hope things are calm by you!
Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 87 Comments: 10166
356. NEwxguy
1:34 PM GMT on July 01, 2014
GM,Jus,read all the comments from last night,talk about stress,thankfully for you,you missed the real action,
But parts of Illinois got hit hard. Hopefully no deaths.Now the danger zone is moving east,should be in my area by Thursday and throw in a Hurricane and stir well and we get a very wet and severe weather forecast.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 887 Comments: 15965
355. GardenGrrl
9:56 AM GMT on July 01, 2014
Generic but heartfelt "White Rabbits, White Rabbits, White Rabbits!"
Member Since: March 25, 2007 Posts: 259 Comments: 9823
354. sandiquiz
6:53 AM GMT on July 01, 2014


Hi Jus, Wishing you a very happy, and safe, Month of July :)
Member Since: October 29, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 26843
353. juslivn
3:55 AM GMT on July 01, 2014
Even more tornado reports coming in from damage (unconfirmed tornadoes with a ton of straight line reports of up to 100 mph winds) South suburbs! Making the turn around the lake.
Tornado threat continues with this line.
BF. we were looking at how far back it stretches, back to TX!

I'm out...exhausted and prayers up for those hit tonight.

Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 87 Comments: 10166
352. RobDaHood
3:46 AM GMT on July 01, 2014
Just dropped in to check on you. This should be through soon. Hang in there Jus!

(I thought it stood for Pretty Darn Scary!
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 101 Comments: 33281
351. juslivn
3:37 AM GMT on July 01, 2014
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1032 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN KANKAKEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA...
NORTHERN NEWTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA...

* UNTIL 1100 PM CDT

* AT 1030 PM CDT...TWO TORNADIC CIRCULATIONS WITHIN A LINE OF
DAMAGING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED OVER EASTERN KANKAKEE
COUNTY. THE FIRST WAS NEAR GRANT PARK...THE SECOND NEAR
MOMENCE...AND BOTH MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND 100 MPH WINDS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

* THESE DANGEROUS STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
LOWELL AROUND 1045 PM CDT.
SUMAVA RESORTS AND THAYER AROUND 1050 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE SCHNEIDER.

I-65 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 232 AND 262.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS TORNADO WARNING REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING THAT
WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME AREA.

THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE
TORNADO. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A BUILDING.

Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 87 Comments: 10166
350. Barefootontherocks
3:34 AM GMT on July 01, 2014
'Nother one.

(Double-posted tornado warning removed.)

Goodnight, jus. Tell hubby's relatives it was all my fault.
;)
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 157 Comments: 19178
349. Barefootontherocks
3:33 AM GMT on July 01, 2014
Glad the cloud cover over your place won out. This second line is strong also, and I see some tornado warnings. The system's making storms along a stream clear to the TX panhandle.

I'm about blogged out. lpl Hope you can get some rest tonight.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 157 Comments: 19178
348. juslivn
3:23 AM GMT on July 01, 2014
Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 87 Comments: 10166
347. juslivn
3:21 AM GMT on July 01, 2014
Emergency radio posting touchdown in Mendota, IL
Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 87 Comments: 10166
346. juslivn
3:19 AM GMT on July 01, 2014
80 mph winds and reports coming of tornadoes in Morris, Plainfield, etc... Our Northern Illinois Stormchaser

Forcasting Page on
FB -- Danny just got hit?
Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 87 Comments: 10166
345. juslivn
3:16 AM GMT on July 01, 2014
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
958 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWEST COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
NORTHWEST WILL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 1030 PM CDT

* AT 956 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR DETECTED A SEVERE
SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES THAT MAY NOT BE VISIBLE
DUE TO HEAVY RAIN WAS LOCATED NEAR PLAINFIELD...AND MOVING EAST AT
55 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND 100 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
LEMONT AND NEW LENOX AROUND 1005 PM CDT.
HOMER GLEN AND MOKENA AROUND 1010 PM CDT.
TINLEY PARK AND ORLAND PARK AROUND 1015 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE PALOS PARK...ORLAND HILLS...
PALOS HEIGHTS AND FRANKFORT SQUARE.

I-80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 135 AND 149.
I-55 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 255 AND 268.
I-355 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 11.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS TORNADO WARNING REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING THAT
WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME AREA.

THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE
TORNADO. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A BUILDING.



Hi TF, yes--for us it was very strange. It split. I sincerely think our lakes or when we had more cloud cover and not as much energy at sunset had something to do with it.

Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 87 Comments: 10166
344. Thunderfan
12:53 AM GMT on July 01, 2014
I see you survived the noisy weather up there. Let hope that batch west of you weakens.
Member Since: April 14, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 806
343. juslivn
11:49 PM GMT on June 30, 2014


Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 87 Comments: 10166
342. juslivn
11:43 PM GMT on June 30, 2014
thanks aquak9 it fell apart by me up here, which is good. And I'm just done stressed out. Let's hope the outflow doesn't develop another one. Getting tired of my husband calling his family saying, 'She says it's going to be bad'.
I DIDN'T SAY IT! Noaa said it for pete's sake! Imma bout ta blow my 'cap' ! sheeeeeeesh.

BF, interesting about the bookends on beell's blog. Kewl.
Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 87 Comments: 10166
341. aquak9
11:18 PM GMT on June 30, 2014
thoughts and sunflowers and shine of sky
may bad weather pass you by
you and all the loved ones too
may your day end with skies of blue

peace m'friend (and all ships at sea)

Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 26462
340. juslivn
10:59 PM GMT on June 30, 2014
Yeah, well judging by the responses of some people who called me and said, well we're going to applebees, oh--we're on the boat, oh -- we're just leaving to drive now. There seems to be quite a few people who could care less and don't understand the situation. So, I hope it does fall apart for their sakes.
Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 87 Comments: 10166
339. Barefootontherocks
10:50 PM GMT on June 30, 2014
Looks like the bottom "bookend" is (add: maybe) breaking off. Maybe the southern end will weaken.

Be safe.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 157 Comments: 19178
338. juslivn
10:30 PM GMT on June 30, 2014
PDS Particularly Dangerous Situation



* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND EASTERN ILLINOIS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
EASTERN WISCONSIN
LAKE MICHIGAN

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 335 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND SCATTERED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80
MPH LIKELY
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF
MILWAUKEE WISCONSIN TO 65 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF VALPARAISO
INDIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 87 Comments: 10166
337. Barefootontherocks
10:15 PM GMT on June 30, 2014
I hope the whole thing weakens - soon.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 157 Comments: 19178
336. Barefootontherocks
10:13 PM GMT on June 30, 2014
Hi. Good to see you! Yes! just read at bl's that piece you want to break off is technically a "bookend vortex," one of two in the line.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1220
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0433 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 375...

VALID 302133Z - 302330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 375
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. EXPECT 60-75-MPH WINDS TO REACH
CHICAGO TO MILWAUKEE DURING THE 545 PM CDT TO 700 PM CDT TIME FRAME.
BRIEF TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR
.

DISCUSSION...THE ONGOING MATURE...DERECHO-PRODUCING MCS IS
EXHIBITING AROUND 50-55 KT OF FORWARD MOTION AND HAS LIKELY REACHED
PEAK INTENSITY. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED...WITH
A RECENT WIND GUST TO 78 MPH MEASURED IN SWRN WI. THE FAST SYSTEM
MOTION WILL ENHANCE INFLOW AMIDST AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO
SUPPORT MCS MAINTENANCE AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS NRN IL
AND SRN WI INTO EARLY EVENING. LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION OF THE ONGOING
ACTIVITY TAKES THE SVR-WIND THREAT ACROSS THE CHICAGO AREA AND
MILWAUKEE...PRIMARILY BETWEEN 545 PM CDT AND 700 PM CDT. A FEW BRIEF
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WITH BOOKEND VORTICES
IN SRN WI AND ALONG FLANKS OF PROMINENT REAR-INFLOW JETS.


..COHEN.. 06/30/2014
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 157 Comments: 19178
335. juslivn
10:08 PM GMT on June 30, 2014
Hi, thanks NEw and BF. I tried to get my whole family over here/or prepared. I was running around like a chicken w/my head cut off.
I don't like the segment in Wisconsin wrapped like a ball on the backside top of the line, though I hope something breaks that segment off completely.



The bowing segment seems to have accelerated, breaks up a bit, then redefines.

New(er) MCD

Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 87 Comments: 10166
334. Barefootontherocks
8:46 PM GMT on June 30, 2014
PDS Thunderstom Watch issued - for high winds. a tornado or two also possible.

SEL5

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 375
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
335 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND EASTERN ILLINOIS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
EASTERN WISCONSIN
LAKE MICHIGAN

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 335 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND SCATTERED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80
MPH LIKELY
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF
MILWAUKEE WISCONSIN TO 65 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF VALPARAISO
INDIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 373...WW 374...

DISCUSSION...FAR ERN IA DERECHO-PRODUCING MCS EXPECTED TO MOVE
MAINLY E THROUGH EARLY TNGT. THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER
SLIGHTLY LESS UNSTABLE LOW-LVL ENVIRONMENT OVER NE IL/SE WI RELATIVE
TO THAT OVER ERN IA/WRN IL. BUT GIVEN EXISTING STRENGTH OF
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...AND LIKELIHOOD FOR SOME INCREASE IN THE MEAN
FLOW OVER NRN IL AS NW MO UPR IMPULSE APPROACHES...EXPECTED AN
ORGANIZED BAND OF SVR STORMS TO CONTINUE E AT LEAST AS FAR AS LK MI.
BACKING OF DEEP FLOW AHEAD OF MO IMPULSE...AND CONTINUED NWD SPREAD
OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE...FURTHER SUGGEST THAT THE SQLN COULD BUILD A
BIT FARTHER N INTO WI WITH TIME.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27045.


...CORFIDI

The watch is calling this a (edit) derecho-producing MCS.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 157 Comments: 19178
333. Barefootontherocks
8:27 PM GMT on June 30, 2014
Yes, NEwx,
I just checked the 3 pm outlook... says...
...SUMMARY...
DAMAGING SQUALL LINE WITH WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 60-70 MPH
WILL SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN BY 7PM. SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SURROUNDING MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.

...EASTERN IA/NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN WI...

CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION THAT ORIGINATED OVER THE MID MO VALLEY HAVE
RECENTLY EVOLVED INTO A MATURE SQUALL LINE OVER EASTERN IA. WHILE
MULTIPLE STORM MODES WERE NOTED EARLIER IN THE CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION...IT APPEARS A WELL-ORGANIZED DAMAGING MCS WILL RACE
ACROSS ERN IA INTO NRN IL/SRN WI OVER THE NEXT 4-5 HOURS. LEADING
EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY IS SURGING EAST AT 50KT AND NUMEROUS MEASURED
WIND GUSTS OF 50-64KT HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO
ACROSS IA. IF SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE WIND SPEEDS COULD
EASILY EXCEED 65KT AT THE APEX OF THIS EVOLVING BOW AS IT SPREADS
INTO NRN IL. GIVEN THE CURRENT SPEED/MOVEMENT IT SHOULD SPREAD INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF METRO CHICAGO BETWEEN 5-6 PM. DAMAGING WINDS
ARE HIGHLY LIKELY WITH THIS CONVECTION.


Add:
Link to complete 3 pm convective outlook
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 157 Comments: 19178
332. NEwxguy
8:24 PM GMT on June 30, 2014
BF,that line has been strengthening steadily as the day goes on.
Does not look good.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 887 Comments: 15965
331. Barefootontherocks
8:08 PM GMT on June 30, 2014
Quoting NEwxguy:
I thought that cluster would slide up into Wisconsin,but looks more like its heading toward you now.
Watch this closely,its a had a tornado warning with it almost the whole time its been moving east.
Yep.

Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 157 Comments: 19178
330. Barefootontherocks
8:04 PM GMT on June 30, 2014

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1215
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0127 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN...CENTRAL AND ERN IA/NWRN AND NRN
IL/SRN WI

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 373...

VALID 301827Z - 302000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 373 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...INCLUDING A FEW TORNADOES...VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING SWATHS OF STRONG WINDS...SOME SIGNIFICANT
GUSTS POSSIBLE...PERSISTS ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF WW 373 /IN IOWA/.

THESE SVR THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EWD THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
NEW WATCH LIKELY NEEDED EAST OF WW 373 BY 19Z.

STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE WRN PART OF WW 373 SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WIND SHIFT /SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
NLY/.

DISCUSSION...COMPLEX STORM ORGANIZATION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS CENTRAL
IOWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM
WEBSTER/BOONE COUNTIES TO ADAIR COUNTY MOVING ESEWD AT 40-45
KT...WITH AT LEAST ONE SUPERCELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LINE NEAR DSM.
ADDITIONAL STORM MERGERS HAVE OCCURRED IN HAMILTON/HARDIN AND STORY
COUNTIES. THE ENVIRONMENT NEAR AND EAST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS VERY
STRONGLY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE 2500-4000 J PER KG/ WITH EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR OF 50-70 KT MAINTAINING STORM ORGANIZATION. SELY SURFACE
WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THESE STORMS IS RESULTING IN ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR FOR A TORNADO THREAT.

CURRENT EWD TO ESEWD MOVEMENT OF THE CENTRAL IA STRONG-SEVERE STORMS
SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT WW 373 BY 19Z. AIR MASS RECOVERY
PERSISTS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS ERN IA INTO NRN IL AND SRN WI GIVEN
LIMITED CLOUD COVER ALLOWING FOR STRONG SURFACE HEATING.
INSTABILITY GRADIENT EXTENDS ESEWD FROM THE ONGOING CENTRAL IA
STORMS SUGGESTING A GENERAL ESEWD MOVEMENT MAY PERSIST.

..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 06/30/2014

New Tornado watch includes parts of IL. Please click image for complete watch info.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 157 Comments: 19178
329. NEwxguy
6:46 PM GMT on June 30, 2014
I thought that cluster would slide up into Wisconsin,but looks more like its heading toward you now.
Watch this closely,its a had a tornado warning with it almost the whole time its been moving east.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 887 Comments: 15965
328. Barefootontherocks
5:27 PM GMT on June 30, 2014
You'll be fine for now. :)

Enjoyed the wedding photos a lot! Thank you for posting them here.

Hi to Mom.
:)

Ps. Sounds like SPC's looking for it to move in this evening.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 157 Comments: 19178
327. juslivn
5:08 PM GMT on June 30, 2014
Hey gang thanks!!! Bf I hope not! Now I need to go get my mother so I'll be on the road a while into lake county/ BUffalo grove.
Let's hope this doesn't pop til I'm back in my basement area 😬
Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 87 Comments: 10166
326. Barefootontherocks
4:56 PM GMT on June 30, 2014
"D" wording got stronger at 1130.

The 1130 Convective Outlook broadened the E side of moderate risk. Jus's area right now is 5% tornado risk and within 45% hatched risk for wind. Outlook excerpt...
...CNTRL PLNS TO MID/UPR MS VLY AND LWR MI TODAY/TNGT...
SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT SVR WEATHER OVER THE LWR MO
AND MID MS VLYS TODAY INTO TNGT
. A BAND OF MODERATE TO STRONG WLY
DEEP SHEAR WILL OVERLIE A SIMILARLY-ORIENTED CORRIDOR OF SUBSTANTIAL
INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF AT LEAST MODEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT. THIS SETUP COULD YIELD FAIRLY NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS THAT
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A DERECHO-PRODUCING
MCS.

Wind probabilities. Click graphic for complete outlook.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 157 Comments: 19178
325. Barefootontherocks
4:28 PM GMT on June 30, 2014
Stuff from Iowa looks like it's going into Wisconsin.

Crap. Did they say "dewrecko" this morning? Wish they'd get the 1130 out.
From 0800 outlook...
FARTHER E...AIR MASS WILL TAKE LONGER TO RECOVER FROM MORNING
CONVECTION/OUTFLOW OVER SRN WI/NRN IL/SWRN LOWER MI AND VICINITY.
HOWEVER...SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL WAA AND AREAS OF AFTN HEATING SHOULD
ENABLE THAT PROCESS...WITH WAA CONTINUING IN PRECONVECTIVE REGIME
AFTER 00Z. AS SUCH...DAMAGING-WIND THREAT WILL EXTEND INTO THESE
REGIONS DURING EVENING INTO TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR RELATIVE MIN OVER
COLD NEAR-SFC MARINE LAYER OF LM. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR NEB/IA
CONVECTION TO EVOLVE UPSCALE AND PRODUCE SWATH OF SIGNIFICANT WIND
DAMAGE -- PERHAPS WITH ENOUGH LATERAL/AREAL EXTENT TO CLASSIFY AS
PROGRESSIVE DERECHO -- EWD AS FAR AS SWRN SHORES OF LM.


DAMAGING WIND AND OCNL LARGE HAIL ALSO ARE LIKELY FROM SQUALL LINE
EXTENDING SWWD ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS REMAINDER IL AND
MUCH OF CENTRAL/NRN MO.

You know what to do. You'll be okay.
:)
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 157 Comments: 19178
324. NEwxguy
3:34 PM GMT on June 30, 2014
Thats a nasty complex in western Nebraska with a possible tornado,heading into Iowa.
But general motion right now would take it north of you,but not by much.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 887 Comments: 15965
323. NEwxguy
3:31 PM GMT on June 30, 2014
I'll be watching Jus, stay safe out there.
Yeh, I love summer,but I hate the way if flies by.
I heard someone the other day,"well its the 4th of July and summer will be over"
Give me a break,can we at least enjoy July,before we start thinking of the end of summer.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 887 Comments: 15965
322. juslivn
3:29 PM GMT on June 30, 2014
No sooner do I post, but they issue a new mcd



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1212
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1018 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 301518Z - 301645Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL IL. WW MAY BE
NEEDED...THOUGH THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE POTENTIAL COVERAGE
FOR SEVERE STORMS.

DISCUSSION...RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A LEAD MCS MOVING
THROUGH WEST CENTRAL IND AND ADJACENT FAR SERN IL...WHILE TRENDS IN
MESOSCALE ANALYSES INDICATED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING NWWD FROM
THIS LEAD SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL TO WEST CENTRAL IL. THE STORM IN
FULTON/PEORIA COUNTIES APPEARS TO BE LOCATED JUST ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. LIGHTING DATA AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED
ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING BETWEEN THE LEAD MCS AND THE FULTON/
PEORIA COUNTIES STORM WHERE ONGOING DIABATIC HEATING OF A MOIST
ENVIRONMENT /PW EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES/ HAS ERODED INHIBITION FOR
SURFACE BASED STORMS INVOF THE NW-SE ORIENTED BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH
WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS CENTRAL IL...A WEAKENING TREND IN 7- AND 9-KM CAPPI WITH THE
FULTON/PEORIA COUNTIES STORM SUGGESTS FORCING IS NOT SUFFICIENT TO
MAINTAIN AN ONGOING STRONG-SEVERE STORM THREAT...AT LEAST IN THE
SHORT TERM. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KT...A SEVERE STORM OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE OF STRONG-SEVERE STORMS REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.

..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 06/30/2014


ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON 40668975 40288909 39978851 39678817 39318829 38978881
39288964 40069029 40269037 40668975

Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 87 Comments: 10166
321. juslivn
3:24 PM GMT on June 30, 2014
Hiya NEw! Can you believe it's the fourth already? Wow. Not much fun with all the severe around though. Hope yours isn't a washout.

Current map below ---our crash will be later on today. Iowa/neb already begun. Ouch




Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 87 Comments: 10166
320. NEwxguy
2:28 PM GMT on June 30, 2014
Sheeesh, you people out there are not getting any breaks,As one front and system moves away another comes in off the pacific and your back in the oven again. Good luck out there,all that stuff is headed our way Thursday and through in a tropical system on the coast,could ruin our 4th,lets hope not.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 887 Comments: 15965

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About juslivn

Located by the Fox River and Chain of Lakes in Northern Il. We boat, fish, love the outdoors, pets, and enjoy life.