Icy Roads Ahead for Chicagoland (maybe)

By: juslivn , 8:01 PM GMT on January 05, 2013

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Joy into the New Year, Chance of Light Snow
January 5, 2012
Reviving an old blog from two years ago for the New Year :)


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You just never know where you will find your 'Joy'.
Today after a busy Christmas weekend, I was doing what many Moms do, piling a few items on the stairs for the
rightful owners to conveniently find (or trip over) and take to their rooms.
I happened to glance up.
There in front of my eyes, was a message in shadow on the wall, reflecting in from our front portlight window.
The window has always been decorated with a little light up 'Joy' sign for the holidays, where it reads outward.
Today, the sun had cast its shadow perfectly. The shadow message inside left me stopped in my tracks when I least expected it...

Feel free to post throughout the year, whenever you are stunned by a little moment of 'Joy' which just happens to catch you out of no where, and we'll remember those moments and this little blog together!

Onward to a Happy New Year everyone,and may you find your 'Joy' when you least expect it!










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152. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
4:32 PM GMT on February 01, 2013
juslivn has created a new entry.
151. juslivn
3:06 PM GMT on January 31, 2013
Huge fire up in Burlington, WI just over the border. Apparently a large Egg factory caught on fire. Maybe someone already posted pictures. Firefighters went there all the way as far as Chicago and by Milwaukee to fight it. I'll try to get some pics because it is soooo cold.


Here's our alert for the overnight hours tonight:
Statement as of 2:54 AM CST on January 31, 2013

... Wind Chill Advisory in effect from midnight tonight to 10 am
CST Friday...


The National Weather Service in Chicago has issued a Wind Chill
Advisory... which is in effect from midnight tonight to 10 am CST
Friday.

* Wind chill values... 15 to 25 below zero late tonight into early
Friday morning.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that very cold air and strong winds
will combine to generate low wind chills.
This will result in
frost bite and lead to hypothermia if precautions are not taken.
If you must venture outdoors... make sure you wear a hat and
gloves.
Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 93 Comments: 10489
150. juslivn
2:58 PM GMT on January 31, 2013
Hi BF and NEw, Yes, S is already out the door to her first day of work at (Breckenridge). Wow, Can't imagine her waking up and going to work in the mountains her first day after such a long trip from the flatlands. Cool! What a joy that must be. Son has another interview today, fingers crossed.

Meatloaf did his annual Coldest day romp. I did not have time to chase him though. I had to drive hubby to the train station. Loaf was back when I returned. Every damn year, he has to pick the coldest days to decide to take off. Grrrr.

Yes, NEw, that storm was horribly destructive. So I take it you kept your power. Wonder how Mass is?
This thing with the guy holding the kid hostage is just crazy!

Coffeeeeee! 15 degrees and wind chill was 1 degree below this morning when I left for the train. Can't wait to get our other car back from service and I don't have to go out in the wx soooo early.
Ramble scramble
Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 93 Comments: 10489
149. Barefootontherocks
2:21 PM GMT on January 31, 2013
Quoting juslivn:
The yewts finally got there. Alive! Wahoooo. They will stay with Dau and move into their new apartment on Friday.
Loooong trip. Over 24 hours. Delayed in IA, and NE a little. Then in the mountains the winds were really bad and they hit snow. But, they made it.

Yippee.
:)
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 162 Comments: 20509
148. NEwxguy
2:07 PM GMT on January 31, 2013
This was a crazy couple of days of weather around the country,sad to see it turned deadly in Georgia.
Our weather came through between 2 am and 7 am.Winds howling,torrential downpours,temps around 60.
Blue Hill Observatory just south of Boston and sits on a hill about 600 ft up,recorede a wind gust of 82 mph this morning. They never got that high during Sandy.Scattered power outages, a few trees down.This is January correct???
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 896 Comments: 16202
147. juslivn
3:56 AM GMT on January 31, 2013
The yewts finally got there. Alive! Wahoooo. They will stay with Dau and move into their new apartment on Friday.
Loooong trip. Over 24 hours. Delayed in IA, and NE a little. Then in the mountains the winds were really bad and they hit snow. But, they made it.

Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 93 Comments: 10489
146. juslivn
9:07 PM GMT on January 30, 2013
6.7 earthquake in Northern Chile. That's a big en.

We had a round of snow earlier, and it all melted. But looks like another band coming in.

Horrible outbreak of storms. These 2 days can be over now please. :/ Prayers for all.
Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 93 Comments: 10489
145. NEwxguy
8:47 PM GMT on January 30, 2013
High wind warnings all over our area. and looks like snow for your area.Talk about contrast in weather.spring in my area to winter in yours.,no wonder all this severe weather.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 896 Comments: 16202
144. juslivn
4:04 PM GMT on January 30, 2013
That is exactly what he said, NEw ! I see you will have winds later when this front hits you.

They got back on the road and are almost to Nebraska. It's taken them 12 hours just to get that far from IL. The main problem seems to be wind. The car carrier is being a drag in the winds.
It's worse in Nebraska. I-80 is closed by Lincoln due to icy roadway. They expected winter travel, but didn't expect it to be closed.

Son's gf has to be on the job at 8 am tomorrow for orientation. If they have to stop, they will call her work. Not worth risking things...

Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 93 Comments: 10489
143. NEwxguy
2:31 PM GMT on January 30, 2013
Picture in my mind of you standing there in the pouring rain shouting instructions and none of them paying attention.Don't mean to laugh,but your story sounds so funny.Good luck to them.
MAP!!!!!Now when have you ever seen a male of any age use a map,Quote from just about any male"I know how to get there we won't get lost".
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 896 Comments: 16202
142. juslivn
12:48 PM GMT on January 30, 2013
They got stuck in Stuart, IA. Wind forced them off the road, not so much snow. 3 inches son said, but winds were bad. If they can get through IA, it may be better in NE? Not sure. Looking for the app for road conditions for them.
Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 93 Comments: 10489
141. juslivn
12:45 AM GMT on January 30, 2013
Appears this line went South of us. But, we get the rain still. We'll take it, without the severe. Hope all in the way of the line will take care.

Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 93 Comments: 10489
140. juslivn
11:45 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
Lots of tears here, so I can't post the storms yet. Promise, I will soon.

They hugged the dogs and cried.
They will miss them so much.
They don't have a map, I found out. Damn it. I said get a map. Don't rely on your phones.

And there they go.
I'm sure it's the first adventure of many. I said be kind to each other. I mean it. Be kind.

I'll be back in a while when I calm down. Thanks for listening.

Rain....Cold rain. bbl

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Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 93 Comments: 10489
139. Barefootontherocks
11:43 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
Sounds like the occasion calls for a margarita or three. No, just one. Otherwise you might be falling off the sidewalk, if you could even find the sidewalk. lol From what you posted, sounds like maybe 20 min to liftoff.

Hang in. Just think. Now you have Boomer and Little Kitty and Molly all to yourself.
;)

Ha. Truckin'. Perfect.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 162 Comments: 20509
138. juslivn
10:59 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
Hiya NEw, we'll stay safe. Yewts packing the car in the heavy downpours (I helped) Wow...this is like a reality show of 'How Not To Move', lol. Their packing is like a freakin train wreck. (I'll compare it to Freshman boys going off to College...Boys!!!) What ever...They will leave in an hour or so. They want to make the mountains in daylight.
I'm a drown rat trying to help re-organize the car. Kitty keeps trying to jump in their car. Dogs know something is up. Right now, the yewts friends came over and are playing foosball in the basement because aparently this is what male yewts do before they leave their home town and move away??? I keep saying, make a list...eh, I don't think they hear me, lol.

Everyone, I know there's severe in IL. I'll start posting weather in a little while. Sorry...I sat down to drink ;) Chard anyone? Pull up a chair...it's gonna be a long strange trip, lol.

<>a href="" target="_blank">Link
Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 93 Comments: 10489
137. NEwxguy
10:06 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
Crazy weather pattern,resembles spring pattern with all the warm temps and sever weather warnings.Heres praying nothing too bad happens out there.Stay safe my friends.
Jus,oh yeh forgot about the slush down the boot.Nothing like the feel of cold slush around your feet.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 896 Comments: 16202
136. juslivn
7:07 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
Oh thanks NEw, lunch time for a moment here.

Ha ha on the joys of winter! Got to add boot fail --getting the snow in your boot and having it trickle down. Wet socks in winter...ugh

Watching this outbreak (BF stay safe if you pop in, and everyone in the line)
But can't really post much yet. Possibly tonight after work and the yewts leave. Will keep myself busy watching the storms. This evening and tonight could be bad anyway. For now here's the MCD I noticed at lunchtime: Heads up IL



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0071
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1154 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN MO...W-CNTRL/SWRN
IL...N-CNTRL AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 291754Z - 291930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM CNTRL MO INTO S-CNTRL
OK...WHILE LEADING WAA AND BROAD LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE LINE ACROSS SWRN MO/NWRN AR.
A LEWP STRUCTURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE OVER HICKORY/BENTON
COUNTIES MO IS TRACKING ENEWD AROUND 50 KT...AND SHOULD EXIT WW6
AROUND 19Z IF IT MAINTAINS A SIMILAR FORWARD MOTION. TRANSIENT
MESOCYCLONES HAVE ACCOMPANIED THIS FEATURE...AND ADDITIONAL
ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES -- BOWS/SUPERCELLS -- WILL LIKELY EVOLVE
ALONG THE SQUALL LINE AND WITHIN SEMI-DISCRETE LEADING CONVECTION.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY OVER 60 KT OF DEEP SHEAR AND AROUND 375 M2/S2
OF EFFECTIVE SRH PER 18Z SGF RAOB. THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD
OFFSET ONLY MARGINAL BUOYANCY DEPICTED BY THE RAOB. AS SUCH...DMGG
WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MCD AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE THREAT INCREASING AFTER 19Z.

..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 01/29/2013


Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 93 Comments: 10489
135. NEwxguy
3:19 PM GMT on January 29, 2013
Aww,Jus,***big hug***,the empty nest syndrome,its tough seeing the last one to leave,but you will get to love the peace and tranquility also,and trust me they will be back at different times to visit or sometimes to stay for a while.We talk to our neighbors about this event,we've all seen our little leave and there are always mixed emotions.
I was going to come in and rant about the joys of winter in the northern states.
1.The happiness when you step into your first slush puddle.
2. The excitement on that first frigid morning and you find your car battery dead and you have to jump it in -10 degree wind chill
3.The pleasurable feeling to come out and find your car encased in a layer of ice,that even your ice scrapper can't cut and you can't even open your door to start the car and melt the ice.
4.And who hasn't experience that wonderful feeling when you are shoveling the sidewalk and the wind knocks a large clump of snow that falls around you neck and you feel the snow sliding down inside your shirt.
The people in the south just don't know what their missing.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 896 Comments: 16202
134. Barefootontherocks
6:46 AM GMT on January 29, 2013
Oh, good music. Well, I don't know the Carrie Underwood one but bet it's good. I know how you feel, if that's any consolation. You will see them again, you know. How could they forget you? They'll 'preciate you a lot more when they're away.
:)

Stopped back to leave this picture for you.

Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 162 Comments: 20509
133. juslivn
6:36 AM GMT on January 29, 2013
Thanks BF.

Pardon my lil breakdown, cause the last of the lil chicks are a flyin...far. It'll be fine, but...you know, it's tugging at my heart a little to see both go. (Here's to the future for these Yewts) Wide Open Spaces and the Rockies.

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Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 93 Comments: 10489
132. Barefootontherocks
6:23 AM GMT on January 29, 2013
Storms moving fast I guess. Saw 0000 when I commented. Then saw 0009. Saved 0009 for posterity.



Not to worry in OKC. They just might wake up to thunder about the time their alarm clocks go off. Bigger threat of large hail may be SE of the city. But ya know, this strong SE wind is eerie. Plus I saw a opossum walking up Main St. lol What's that a sign of?

'Night. Sleep good.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 162 Comments: 20509
131. juslivn
6:18 AM GMT on January 29, 2013
Hi BF, it was late, so I didn't warn the OKC kids, but I think you're right on the beginnings of the storms.

Thought I screen captured our radar here, but I guess it is updating as I can see it passed. It really didn't get too bad here. I stepped outside because I thought I heard hail, but it wasn't. Just then a note came from a friend that they had hail in McHenry proper. So maybe briefly here.

As I said, good show for a Moonday in January eh?

Everyone stay safe tomorrow! NOAA radios on!

Night BF. Thanks for stopping by.
Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 93 Comments: 10489
130. Barefootontherocks
6:11 AM GMT on January 29, 2013
Wow is right.
Nice little bugger next to Fox Lake. The line that ran over you looked strong. Maybe strengthening?

Just a strong SE wind here. A few little tstorms in NE OK earlier I see. Wasn't watching. I'm thinking anything that might come this way might start in SW OK. In the early morning, rain. I hope.

Glad it's raining up there.
:)
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 162 Comments: 20509
129. juslivn
6:06 AM GMT on January 29, 2013
Lots of Small rolling thunder. Thought we had some hail, but was just strong rain.

Screen capture. January???? wow.



Add: A friend reported hail in McHenry. Not a spotter though. No details.

Trains are going to bed. Our line of storms seems to be passed. Pretty good show, as I said, for January, lol. Night all ships!
Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 93 Comments: 10489
128. juslivn
5:50 AM GMT on January 29, 2013


BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1145 PM CST MON JAN 28 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN PORTER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA...

* UNTIL 1215 AM CST


* AT 1142 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SOUTH HAVEN...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHERN
PORTER COUNTY.
Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 93 Comments: 10489
127. juslivn
5:18 AM GMT on January 29, 2013
H4 51knots
And another N0? headed this way. Lots going into WI.

Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 93 Comments: 10489
126. juslivn
5:07 AM GMT on January 29, 2013
And there it tis.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1105 PM CST MON JAN 28 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
NORTHEAST WILL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA...

* UNTIL 1140 PM CST


* AT 1101 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PARK FOREST...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.


* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
FORD HEIGHTS...CHICAGO HEIGHTS...CRETE AND GLENWOOD AROUND 1110 PM
CST.
LYNWOOD AND SAUK VILLAGE AROUND 1115 PM CST.
DYER...MUNSTER...LANSING AND ST. JOHN AROUND 1120 PM CST.
HIGHLAND...SCHERERVILLE AND HAMMOND AROUND 1125 PM CST.
GRIFFITH AND GARY AROUND 1130 PM CST.

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED...
GOVERNORS STATE UNIVERSITY...ILLIANA MOTOR SPEEDWAY...INDIANA
UNIVERSITY NORTHWEST...PRAIRIE STATE COLLEGE...PURDUE UNIVERSITY
CALUMET...SOUTH SHORE RAIL-CATS BASEBALL...
Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 93 Comments: 10489
125. juslivn
5:02 AM GMT on January 29, 2013
BO

(lol)



W3


Line is coming together quite well. Looks like it will continue maybe a bit stronger into Southern WI.


Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 93 Comments: 10489
124. juslivn
4:57 AM GMT on January 29, 2013
Hi Wab, glad you were fine over there. Hope this didn't clip you either.

Line of storms with mainly hail as the threat for us now. Dense fog advisory as well.



One Severe storm warning was over by the Iowa border area.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
944 PM CST MON JAN 28 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN BENTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...
NORTHWESTERN LINN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...
EASTERN BUCHANAN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST IOWA...
NORTHWESTERN DELAWARE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST IOWA...

* UNTIL 1030 PM CST.

* AT 942 PM CST...TRAINED SPOTTERS AND DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY NEAR VINTON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 55 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
URBANA...CENTER POINT...WALKER...ROWLEY...TROY MILLS...
QUASQUETON...WINTHROP...MASONVILLE...LAMONT...MANC HESTER...
DUNDEE...DELAWARE...GREELEY...COLESBURG AND EDGEWOOD.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 380 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 35 AND 50.
Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 93 Comments: 10489
123. whitewabit (Mod)
10:20 PM GMT on January 28, 2013
Jus .. sounds like you missed the worst part too .. we got about a tenth of an inch of freezing rain but then the temps warmed and melted the ice ..

Now tomorrow is a different matter .. rain amounts between 1.5 to 3 inches are possible here .. and we are going to be right on the edge of the severe stuff ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 374 Comments: 35077
122. juslivn
9:39 PM GMT on January 28, 2013
LOL, Hi NEw and Mass
Wow Mass, nice to see you around today! That is exactly what scares me about ice storms. I remember that storm Mass. We were extremely lucky with how that played out yesterday here in our area. Some others didn't get so lucky unfortunately. Take care and hope things are a lot calmer by you. Hope you are feeling better after your spell in the grocery store :)

NEw, lol hope we do get to see you in the playoffs.

That was a really bad break for the Celts.
Didn't get to your blog yet. Snow huh? Good deal. We got very lucky with the ice yesterday. And it is really warm today. I had my light jacket on and hubby stayed home on a personal day to put up the new garage door while it is warm. Son #1 was helping, too. It looks very nice. I'll take a pic sometime soon.
Hope your commute isn't too bad NEw, see you tomorrow probably (work is nuts again and the kids leave for Colorado tomorrow...we'll see, probably won't blog til Wednesday or so)

On second thought may be back later to post about the rain coming in tomorrow though--?? If I get a chance. Have a good Moonday!
Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 93 Comments: 10489
121. NEwxguy
9:03 PM GMT on January 28, 2013
Mass,our hockey team is in first place,so we can't include them in the tanking,as far as our celtics,we've lost rajon rondo for the year,so see ya later.
Unfortunately because we have less than half a season to play,nobody in the east will be playing anyone midwest or west coast.So we won't be seeing your team in the regular season,but we do plan on seeing you in the playoffs.
We have snow falling here right now,shouldn't be much,but just in time for my commute home. Mother Nature gotta start planning better she's also a little confused, shooting for 60 on Wednesday,and maybe some thunder,she can't seem to get her seasons straight.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 896 Comments: 16202
120. masshysteria
3:25 PM GMT on January 28, 2013
Hi Jus ~

Thanks for stopping by my blog last week with birthday greetings, etc. Much appreciated!

I sincerely hope that your current weather challenges (ice storms, etc.) won't prevail for too long or result in any power outages or other dire consequences. I can fully remember the lengthy disasterous mess we had around here resulting from our ice storm in December of 2008. It took four very chilly days/nights till our power came back on and we were the luckier ones.

Glad you have a Chicago sports team (hockey)to cheer about right now. All of ours have either tanked or are presently tanking. Boo! Well, as they always say, "Better Luck Next Year!?" LOL!

May you and yours stay warm, well and safe throughout the week and remainder of your perilous winter. We're all thinking of you and I'll try and catch ya again real soon!
Member Since: June 21, 2006 Posts: 75 Comments: 8855
119. juslivn
2:39 AM GMT on January 28, 2013
Another Record In Chicago! Hawks Win! Best Start In 86 Years!
Wins: 6
Loss: 0

Wahooooooo! Go Hawks Go!
Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 93 Comments: 10489
118. juslivn
12:48 AM GMT on January 28, 2013


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0052
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 PM CST SUN JAN 27 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IL...NRN IND...SWRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 272131Z - 280130Z

SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN RATES APPROACHING 0.05 INCH PER HOUR ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END OR CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BY
MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.

DISCUSSION...FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED ACROSS ERN IA/SRN
WI/NRN IL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE EWD WITH THE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME. RAP-BASED
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION INDICATE THAT A STRONG WARM
NOSE WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 700 AND 850 MB WHILE MAINTAINING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AOB FREEZING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AS THE PROFILE
SATURATES...FREEZING RAIN RATES NEAR 0.05 INCH PER HOUR WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

..JIRAK.. 01/27/2013



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0053
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0528 PM CST SUN JAN 27 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...LWR MI

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 272328Z - 280330Z

SUMMARY...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION IS BEGINNING A FEW HOURS
EARLIER THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED WITH A TRANSITION FROM MOD/HVY SNOW
TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING. SNOWFALL RATES
GREATER THAN 1 INCH/HR ARE POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WHILE
FREEZING RAIN RATES IN EXCESS OF 0.05 INCH/HR ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE
TRANSITION.

DISCUSSION...RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW IS BEGINNING TO FALL ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF LWR MI. THIS IS
OCCURRING WELL AHEAD OF WHAT WAS INITIALLY FORECAST BY MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE /E.G. NAM AND NSSL 4KM WRF DO NOT PROG SNOW UNTIL AFTER 00Z
TONIGHT/. SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S WHILE A
RECENT ACARS SOUNDING FROM DTX REVEAL A SHALLOW WARM NOSE ABOVE
FREEZING BTW 900-800 MB. WAA ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGION WITH CONTINUED WARMING ABOVE THE COOL SURFACE. AS A
RESULT...A TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN IS
ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH
MOST GUIDANCE INDICATING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF FREEZING RAIN RATES
ABOVE 0.05 IN/HR.

LATEST DTX RADAR IMAGERY IS BEGINNING TO SHOW A MELTING LAYER
ORIENTED APPROXIMATELY FROM LAN SEWD TO TTF...FURTHER INCREASING THE
CONFIDENCE A TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN/SLEET WILL LIKELY
OCCUR SOON.

..MOSIER/GRAMS.. 01/27/2013
Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 93 Comments: 10489
117. juslivn
12:44 AM GMT on January 28, 2013
Too dark to take photos, but we have a pretty solid coating of ice on all the railings, shrubs, etc...Am hearing the cars spin their wheels on the hill a bit.

@Mike Hammernick:
10 lightning strikes from Arlington Hts. to #Evanston in northern Cook Cnty over the last 15min pic.twitter.com/LuIdRCQm

32 degrees
Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 93 Comments: 10489
116. juslivn
9:06 PM GMT on January 27, 2013
Plows on our rural street seem to be doing great with this slushy snow mix. It's quite heavy and pretty much slush on the deck, not ice yet. So far so good.

Also, watching a hill where I can see traffic slow down when it gets bad. Not affecting the traffic speed quite yet. Could change soon.
30 degrees here.
Off to quilt some more. If anything interesting happens, I'll be back (yea, thanks for the warning, eh, lol)


Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 93 Comments: 10489
115. juslivn
8:41 PM GMT on January 27, 2013
Well it started snowing big flakes first about 1pm. Changed over to intermittent ice pellets. Temp went from 37 to 31 and a good sleet storm began. It was sleeting pretty good for about 1/2 hour. While writing the post it is icy liquidy rainy now.

Here's a little boring vid for reference (beginning of our potential storm). Took a close up of some twigs so we can see any accumulation of ice. You can hear the sleet falling pretty good better than seeing it. I'll keep updating if I can throughout the day. Also have some still shots of the wires along the back and the deck railing. It was pretty fast ice pellets which were stinging when they hit when taking the pics. Already a little accumulation of ice, but minor (roads are slick I'm sure! but I'm home and will stay off the roads now)

Nothing to see here quite yet-

a href="" target="_blank">Link

Lilacs beginning of the potential storm:

Photobucket">

Power Line, no ice accumulation yet

Beginning of Storm (No ice yet)">


Deck Railing, little accumulation from some earlier snowfall, and a little ice on top from current storm

Beginning of storm - railing.  Little ice accum.">



Son is plowing and salting with friends. Hubby's on call.

Hi BF. It's been busy fo sure yaya around here hey.

Quilted until about 1 am last night and dau was over to help yesterday evening. Then a bunch of errands after church and, and...

Thank you for the wishes for the yewts. They are very excited. I ran the weather on the road trip app here at WU but that was Friday night. Not sure if anything has changed. It will be very cool for them to experience this and see a little of the world beyond our Mid-west nest ;)



Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 93 Comments: 10489
114. Barefootontherocks
4:42 PM GMT on January 27, 2013
Yeahyah. I see you already got the bear watching on Tuesday. Hope you're not getting too much ice today. Haha. Even a little is too much. At least you're scheduled for a warmup.

Oh. Please wish the yewts well in their travels and their lives in Colorado. Probably tears at your heart. Opens their world up bigtime, though. A good thing.
:)

Have a good one.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 162 Comments: 20509
113. juslivn
6:09 PM GMT on January 26, 2013
But....then I noticed THIS in the discussion, too. An event shaping up for Tuesday:

{{Izzi!!!}}

"...One or more waves of showers and thunderstorms
likely to affect the region Tuesday into Tuesday evening as trough
and associated surface front move slowly east through the County Warning Area.


With the 00z European model (ecmwf) trending toward the last couple of GFS and Gem
solutions confidence in this general scenario has increased...though
with trough still off the West Coast the possibility remains that
later runs could change. Having said that...latest model guidance is
pointing toward a potential for a heavy rain and flood event Tuesday
into Tuesday night over portions of the County Warning Area...especially southeast
areas.
After 3 days of return flow from the Gulf and northwest Caribbean
the GFS is progging precipitable water values to reach or possibly even exceed
record levels for January Tuesday afternoon and evening. Given this
and the anticipated slow movement of the upper trough and front the
potential exists for significant rainfall over the region including
possibly our County Warning Area. Soils are frozen to a deep depth which means heavy
rain would result in near immediate runoff increasing the threat of
river and small stream flooding despite abnormally low stream flow
leading up to the event. Have also included the potential for
thunderstorms
across the entire County Warning Area as GFS/Gem/ec all have dew points
rising into the middle-upper 50s which would be enough to support
pretty impressive instability for this time of year.


Have raised temperatures considerably from previous forecasts and model
initialized allblend values Tuesday...but am still several degrees
cooler than European model (ecmwf) MOS and mex MOS values which push temperatures into the
60s over much of the County Warning Area. If the next model cycle or two remains
consistent with the current guidance then highs would need to be
raised further which would place records in jeopardy.
Cold front and
upper trough swing east through the region Wednesday with much
colder (more seasonable) temperatures expected. Secondary and stronger
surge of cold air could arrive late in the week and send temperatures back
to notably below average levels..."


Izzi

More on our Potential Ice Storm a bit later.
Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 93 Comments: 10489
112. juslivn
5:52 PM GMT on January 26, 2013
Why is this a watch? This should be an all out warning impo. I am a bit sensitive to ice storms.
Which reminds me...winds? Ohh, brb

okay - Sunday: Winds from the SSE at 10 to 15 mph (hmm not too bad)

Sunday night: Winds from the South at 5 to 20 mph (the 20 mph could knock some frozen limbs around, but I'll take it)

Very glad this is happening on a Sunday when traffic should be a bit lower.
Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 93 Comments: 10489
111. juslivn
4:51 PM GMT on January 26, 2013
Oh Crudola :(


... Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from Sunday morning
through late Sunday night...


* timing... freezing rain... possibly mixed with sleet... will
develop Sunday and continue into Sunday night. Freezing rain
will change to rain Sunday night from south to north across
the region as temperatures gradually rise above freezing.

* Main impact... the potential exists for significant ice
accumulation in excess of a quarter of an inch.


* Other impacts... ice accumulating on tree limbs and power lines
will weigh them down and with increasing wind could result in
power outages. In addition... pavement and soil temperatures
are below freezing... so any liquid precipitation will likely
freeze on contact and result in very icy and dangerous travel
conditions on untreated roadways. Sideways and walkways could
also turn to sheets of ice making even walking difficult and
potentially dangerous.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
ice accumulations that may impact travel. This storm is still in
the developing stages and any minor changes in forecast
temperatures could result in significant changes to the
forecasted precipitation type and resultant icing threat.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts and statements on this
developing winter storm.
Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 93 Comments: 10489
110. juslivn
10:43 PM GMT on January 25, 2013
Good luck with jury duty Sandi. Hope the 'bomb' won't affect you all too badly, as well.

Here's our outlook: (I'm not looking forward to this)

Statement as of 4:53 PM EST on January 25, 2013

... Wintry mix of precipitation expected from Sunday morning
through Sunday night...

A wintry mix of sleet... snow and freezing will develop over north
central Illinois Sunday morning and then spread across the rest of
northern Illinois and Northwest Indiana... including the Chicago
Metro area... Sunday afternoon. Surface temperatures are expected
to initially be in the upper 20s but will gradually warm into the
lower 30s Sunday afternoon and eventually into the middle 30s
Sunday night. Some sleet and ice accumulation will be possible
before the precipitation transitions to all liquid rain. But at
this time... it is too difficult to determine specific amounts...
given the uncertainty of how fast surface temperatures will warm
above freezing. Anyone with travel plans Sunday morning through
Sunday night should continue to monitor later forecasts for this
potential wintry mix of precipitation.


Well, we junked the Cavelier Rally Sport finally. I bought the car for $800.00 used in 2008 and it is 2013 and it made it to the junk yard for cash, lol. I'd say that's pretty darn good.
It had a radiator leak, and oil and bad something or other which would have been very expensive to fix (or I would have fixed it).

Son #2 gets part of the proceeds to get to Colorado. They leave on Tuesday. As I said on FB, I've lost another one to the Rockies. They'll work out in the resorts. His girlfriend already has her job as a front desk customer service at Vail resorts. Son had a great phone interview and they want to meet him in person.
Anyhoo. Is it Chardonnay time yet? Sheesh, what a week! Have a great weekend everyone!

Photobucket">


Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 93 Comments: 10489
109. sandiquiz
12:47 PM GMT on January 25, 2013
Yikes, Jus, that is a chilly sounding report, and your McHenry gizmo says you are 18F with mist and snow.
We seem to be coming out of the deep freezer, with a projected rise to 50F by Sunday night. The only problem will be all this snow melting, and trying to get through ground sodden by previous record rainfall, and into already full streams and rivers! I see more flooding on the horizon:(

Try to have a "warm" weekend!

PS - I begin jury service next Monday, so won't be dropping by your blog early mornings until it is all over.
I shall find it hard getting up and leaving the house a 7:30 again, after five years of laziness and pleasing myself!
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108. juslivn
5:16 AM GMT on January 25, 2013
Snow! Maybe up to 2 1/2 inches? We'll see. Certainly the talk was lake effect snow today, after the deep freeze. It was brutal around here.

I am also more interested in Sunday/Monday. I hate ice storms like my worst nightmare, so I'm watching this discussion like a hawk.

Night all ships!

Discussion:

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville Illinois
925 PM CST Thursday Jan 24 2013


Discussion...


Short term...tonight through Sunday night


329 PM CST


Main forecast concerns today include accumulating light snow tonight
and a very messy wintry mix possible on Sunday.


Will issue an Special Weather Statement for snow tonight into Friday likely having an
impact on the Friday morning commute.


Late tonight into Friday...


Still expect a relatively fast moving band of accumulating light
snow from a clipper system passing to our north and into central
Great Lakes on Friday. This event will be driven by isentropic
lift...frontogenesis and positive vorticity advection from a vorticity maximum pushing over the
area. Thus there could be some moderate to even heavy snowfall
rates for a few hours once saturation occurs. Evaluating 12z
guidance...the NAM has come around to the idea of precipitation
occurring with this system unlike yesterday mornings run...while
the GFS has come in a bit drier than its last several cycles and
the European model (ecmwf) actually a hair more quantitative precipitation forecast. This still yields the same
general idea of a range of .05 to .15 liquid equivalent with this
system...less in the southwest County Warning Area and most in the northeast.
Accounting for the cold air mass and good saturation and lift
through two dendritic growth layers...a fluffy high ratio snow is
expected. Given expected quantitative precipitation forecast amounts...snowfall totals should
range from just under an inch/up to 1 inch in the far southwest
County Warning Area to up to 3 inches in the northeast County Warning Area.


Due to the large dry layer between 900 and 700 mb seen most
prominently on the 12z ilx radiosonde observation...have scaled back probability of precipitation some until
late in the overnight...with only likelies in the northwest from 6z
to 9z. However since we are not looking at a situation with dry
easterly flow and advecting in drier air...but instead a warm
advection pattern...the good forcing will be able to overcome the
initially dry layer aloft. So once to late in the overnight toward
daybreak...had enough confidence to go with categorical
probability of precipitation...tapering from west to east by middle morning.


After a likely lull in precipitation in the early afternoon...where I
included low probability of precipitation for possibly some light snow or flurries in the
cyclonic flow aloft...the NAM in particular is showing a strong
push of cold air behind the cold front trailing from the clipper
middle/late Friday afternoon. This could result in some
scattered...possibly briefly intense snow showers similar to
Wednesday evening due to steepening of low level lapse rates. With
the other guidance not showing as strong a cold air push behind the
cold front...confidence is not overly high in this scenario
occurring. But to account for the NAM scenario...bumped up middle
afternoon probability of precipitation to high chance in the north and northeast portion of
the County Warning Area. Some scattered light additional accumulations are possible
by early Friday evening. Highs will be in the middle and upper
20s...with breezy southwest winds veering westerly during the
afternoon with approach of cold front.


Friday night...strong...but gradually weakening high pressure will
continue to push in from upper Midwest...bringing clearing skies
except for far Northwest Indiana Lakefront. Initially breezy
northwest winds will tail off to under 10 miles per hour or less by
daybreak...especially in north central Illinois...which will set the stage
for a good radiational cooling set-up. Given expected snow cover
across the County Warning Area...temperatures will drop quickly...with lows
primarily in the positive single digits away from the lake and some
single digit below zero readings favored for west of the Fox River.
There is a marginal lake effect set-up and focus should be east and
northeast of Porter County...but have maintained chance/low end
likely probability of precipitation for the far northeast part of the County.


The remainder of Saturday into Saturday night...light northwest
winds will become variable by the afternoon as high pressure moves
overhead. Despite warming temperatures aloft and mostly sunny
skies...cold start and limited mixing with the high overhead will
support chilly temperatures from near around 20 northwest County Warning Area to Lower Middle
20s for the remainder of the County Warning Area. With the high pressure overhead
Sunday evening...this normally would be an excellent radiational
cooling set-up but clouds should be building in...and then a strong
warm air advection pattern and light southeasterly flow at the surface will allow
temperatures to start climbing after midnight. If there is less cloud cover
Saturday evening...lows could be a bit colder than indicated.


Sunday and Sunday night...the large scale pattern that we have been
in with a cold deep trough over the eastern third of the Continental U.S. Will
reorganize to broad ridging over the central US. A wave still well
off the California coast will be riding southwesterly flow into the
area. Very strong isentropic lift ahead of this system will result
in precipitation developing over the area from southwest to
northeast from the morning through the afternoon.


There are some timing differences in the guidance that likely will
not be resolved until feature off cali coast is sampled by radiosonde observations.
The big concern with this period is that the cool dry airmass at the
surface left from the departing high pressure early Sunday is
expected to keep surface temperatures below freezing County Warning Area wide
through the day and into the evening Sunday due to wet bulb effects.
At the same time...very mild air...0 to 5 c at 850 mb will be
rushing in aloft...so any snow or snow/sleet mix for the
southwestern half of the County Warning Area in the morning will transition to sleet
and freezing rain in the afternoon. The northern and northeastern
County Warning Area could see a period of accumulating snow/sleet and then
transition to mainly sleet and freezing rain Sunday night...but it
most be noted that if temperatures aloft end up being any warmer
than currently prognosticated...even these areas could start out primarily
as a sleet/freeze rain mix.


Finally...after surface temperatures initially in the upper 20s
Sunday evening...temperatures will warm Sunday night...most in the
far southern County Warning Area...eventually allowing a change to plain rain there.
The big question mark is how long a period of icing do we see and do
temperatures warm above freezing County Warning Area wide overnight Sunday night
allowing for a quicker change to rain. Normally it is tough to hang
on to freezing rain with deep layered southerly flow...so it is
possible that the models are keeping in the cold air too long. This
is something that we will get a much better handle on as the event
draws nearer. Anyway you look at it...confidence is increasing in
the County Warning Area seeing a wintry mess Sunday.


Snow Thursday night into Friday...high confidence in snow
occurring...medium/high confidence in timing and snow amounts.


Wintry mix Sunday...medium/high in precipitation occurring.
Medium/low in precipitation types and timing of ptype changes.


Rc
Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 93 Comments: 10489
107. juslivn
5:12 AM GMT on January 25, 2013
Enjoy your holiday Ozgalah! Hope the dogs show well. I didn't answer your question about Boomer's training: yes we held off for the holidays. And, I may go just for conformation training and not at that same club. I think I'll go to a handler, like you have. But, I still need to do the tests and get this dog in front of a judge to see his haw. I'm so behind. However, he is gorgeous! And, everything happens for a reason. His personality is really good.
I told you, not a Champ in the line! However, I know what I'm looking at in breed standard, etc...with them. It is ok. I've got my work cut out.
But, I do believe in this line cause i have both brother and sister (spayed sis) He's the one I will go with, and may do agility with Molly.

Have a great show! Let me know how it goes.
Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 93 Comments: 10489
106. ozgalah
9:58 PM GMT on January 24, 2013
Hi Jus, yes the Chicago pictures made our news this morning, looks amazing, the bub is very cute!Two big dog shows this weekend and the weather looks like it is going to be kind. I will have to get someone else to show my dogs as I have an injury and I am supposed to rest it. Monday is a holiday, it is Australia Day and would have been my Mums 85th birthday, she would have loved it here in Australia!
Have a safe and happy weekend!
Member Since: November 25, 2008 Posts: 5 Comments: 1393
105. juslivn
6:35 AM GMT on January 24, 2013
Hey you two! don't make me stay up! Sandi, you have yet another amazing low heading in? Well, like us you Brits endure! This baby from Cicero is a maestro!

Ok, BF...Minnesotatrashtalk, lol! Ya, it was nuts hey!~
Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 93 Comments: 10489
104. sandiquiz
6:23 AM GMT on January 24, 2013
What a beautiful baby, and such a 'heart warming' story at such a cold time!

Love those photos of the ice after the building, and its locality, had been sprayed with water! That lorry is almost a work of art!

Layers...layers!!
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103. Barefootontherocks
6:20 AM GMT on January 24, 2013
Yah, sure. You betcha.
;)
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 162 Comments: 20509
102. juslivn
6:13 AM GMT on January 24, 2013
There were many images out of Chicago just battered in the cold today and yesterday.

Photobucket">

Photobucket">

Photobucket">

Photo by John Gress


I brought it up in horror when the high rise went on fire in the beginning of the arctic blast.

Many of the firefighters are friends of ours. These are our heros. The first responders of Chicago even delivered a baby in this bitter cold in an accident in Cicero. (I think he/she may be a piano player prodigy! LOL


Link

Way to go gang. We can endure. So proud to be a Chicagoan. We have our 'issues' but we'll get through them because we work very hard.

It was pretty dang cold though, eh?
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Located by the Fox River and Chain of Lakes in Northern Il. We boat, fish, love the outdoors, pets, and enjoy life.

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