Go Northern Illinois University!

By: juslivn , 5:25 AM GMT on December 10, 2012

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December 9, 2012 - The storm to our North rages on. Minneapolis set a record for 10.2 inches of snow on this date and broke the record of 7.4 inches in 1964 (per WeatherUnderground tweet).
Our discussion indicates we are dropping in temps and could still see some minor accumulations around 1/10 of an inch, but maybe more in some areas.

Seems today was the HUGE shopping and preparation day in Chicagoland.
Even I ventured out to one of those big box craft stores, and it was soooo crowded, someone was screaming "Marco!!!" and their lost friend on the other side of the store was screaming "Polo!!!" back to them! LOLOL.
I promptly turned around and walked out when I saw the lines!
I simply said, "I'll make due with what I have for decorations, and make it work".

So, this becomes 'A Simple Christmas Blog'
Post something which is so simple and says 'Christmas' to you. (Or, which ever holidays you celebrate--EOHB --Equal Opportunity Holiday Blog here LOL! Just post a simple thought, picture, poem, memory, smell, sight--and we'll KISS the holidays together!
Keep It Simple Stupid...and be reminded we don't need anything more than the laugh of a friend or child, or a snowflake on our tongue, or (add your thought please _______?

So--This is my tree, it has lots of lights
And, this is my dog who sleeps here at night
And these are my stairs
I wrapped them in green
and lighted the path for my Mother the queen
She's coming to visit and that makes it special
To see all the Grands
Who've grown like the devil
And we'll make some quaint cookies
And sing in the choir
With family and friends we'll sit by the fire

Surrounded by children yewts puppies and kittens
We'll go through the bins and find the lost mittens

:)

Yeah..Okay! I go now!!! Stay safe all Ships ----
OHHH That reminds me of one of my favorite SIMPLE Christmas Carols---
"I Saw Three Ships"...(Will post the link below when I find just the right -simple- video ;)

Here's the simple slide show of our decor this year...Truly be safe all ships at sea, or in port, or wherever you may be these holidays! We'll leave the lights on for 'ya!

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candlesandy1">
(candle for all those struggling to recover from storms, troubles, or loss)





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Merry Christmas everyone!!! Cookies are out for Santa!
Man, I'm sorry I didn't get to you all with Christmas greetings. We have been busy!
I send you my slide show (of course) with love and please try to play your favorite holiday carol with it on youtube. Or play the one I picked below. Newtown was so much a part of our Christmas. My heart and soul lights the candles for their vigil tonight.
Pax, out. Love you WU ;)

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a href="" target="_blank">Link

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105. whitewabit (Mod)
Merry Christmas !!
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104. Ylee
Merry Christmas jus, to you, and all your gang!
I'm beginning to think that there's a bullseye with the word "dump" written on it around here somewhere!! I'll have to quickly find it and take it to wab's before the storm hits, lol!

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May the spirit of Christmas bring you peace,
The gladness of Christmas give you hope,
The warmth of Christmas grant you love.
~Author Unknown
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Wishing you and your family all the Best of the Season.

Ooh, lots of snow on the horizon on your map:-(


Thank you for your kind, and supportive words over the weekend. :-)
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101. Barefootontherocks
2:08 AM GMT on December 24, 2012
To jus, storm chasing buddy extraordinaire,
and to all your family near and far,

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year



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100. calpoppy
4:51 PM GMT on December 23, 2012
Happy Holidays to you!!!!

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99. Proserpina
12:30 AM GMT on December 23, 2012
Christmas2012-2
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98. NEwxguy
5:45 PM GMT on December 22, 2012
Hi,Jus,oncall this weekend so in and out.Still looks like a little snow for Christmas day,nothing big,our big storm looks to hit on Thursday,could be a major snowstorm.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15988
97. juslivn
7:11 AM GMT on December 22, 2012
Hi NEw. Thanks so much for the beautiful tree. I'm watching and hoping you get some snow for christmas. Have a wonderful time with your family.

Ylee, too funny! I didn't drop him off farther away, lol! But, lots of good is coming from these circumstances. He's finding a voice and an autonomy he should find with this age...this town won't hold him long...he's got to move on. That is wbhat this is all about.

I watched some of the memorials for the sandy hook children. Don't know if I can shake this feeling of being changed forever by this in such a subtle way. Those beautiful children, and their beautiful parents are simply sucked into my soul.
Peace out. Stay safe all ships. Trains are busy with holiday hours and will go to bed late zzzz...zonk
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96. NEwxguy
9:28 PM GMT on December 21, 2012
Jus,
Before I leave today,wanted to come by and wish you and your family a fanstastic and very Merry Christmas.
Hopefully the weather will stay quiet for everyone,although some big storms will be traveling across the country next week.


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95. Ylee
4:56 PM GMT on December 21, 2012
The boy and the pups are back? You obviously didn't take him far enough away, blindfolded, LOL!

Glad you were spared; whatever happened to Izzi? I haven't seen his posts grace your blog for a long time!
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94. NEwxguy
4:39 PM GMT on December 21, 2012
This is a tale of two sides of the same storm,you have the winter side, I have the spring side.expecting to jump into the 50's for a while this afternoon,currently at 47.We are having heavy rain and high winds,my lawn reindeer and snowman may be joining santa in the sky tonight.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15988
93. juslivn
3:35 PM GMT on December 21, 2012
Thanks wab and Sandi (we had one blip of power outage at about 2am but were fine otherwise, ty)

I have breaking news, Due to the Weather:

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Bwahahaha!
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92. sandiquiz
7:49 AM GMT on December 21, 2012
Oh, darn... I was going to offer to fly over to give you a lesson on how to use your machine and someone beat me to it! lol

The bag is delightful. The whole house will soon have new cushions and drapes, I can see!

Hope the wind, ice, snow and lightning didn't take away your power.... good luck!
Member Since: October 29, 2005 Posts: 300 Comments: 27061
91. whitewabit (Mod)
6:12 AM GMT on December 21, 2012
Quoting juslivn:
Shhhh, I know there's a storm out there, but-----THIS is exciting! The new sewing machine came today. (long story, Singer ran out of the one I ordered, and they replaced it with this Confidence Quilter 7469q. I believe it may be an upgrade from the one I originally purchased) Anyhooooooo...

My son's GF brought material and we made a lil bag for her lil cousin!!!! YAY!!! Isn't it adorrrrrabbbllle!

She is so smart. She set up that sewing machine with the video cd, taught me, and I watched her. She had me help (a little) and she made this bag.

Their whole family is going on a trip and this bag will be for crayons etc...for the airplane for her lil cousin. Too cute!

bagforkids


Love the frogs !!
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90. juslivn
3:11 AM GMT on December 21, 2012
Hubby has reported lightening on his way home from the train station. So, yup! 'Thunder snow!' Night BF. Thanks for likin the bag!
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89. Barefootontherocks
3:04 AM GMT on December 21, 2012
Oh... the bag. The bag. Almost missed it. Cute.You know, she could sell those in touristas shoppes.
:)

Sewing machine is a great tool.
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88. Barefootontherocks
2:58 AM GMT on December 21, 2012
Thundersnow? Wouldn't that be fun.
;)

Glad you got home okay. Maybe you'll wake up to snow drifts. Have good night.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 159 Comments: 19362
87. juslivn
2:55 AM GMT on December 21, 2012
Shhhh, I know there's a storm out there, but-----THIS is exciting! The new sewing machine came today. (long story, Singer ran out of the one I ordered, and they replaced it with this Confidence Quilter 7469q. I believe it may be an upgrade from the one I originally purchased) Anyhooooooo...

My son's GF brought material and we made a lil bag for her lil cousin!!!! YAY!!! Isn't it adorrrrrabbbllle!

She is so smart. She set up that sewing machine with the video cd, taught me, and I watched her. She had me help (a little) and she made this bag.

Their whole family is going on a trip and this bag will be for crayons etc...for the airplane for her lil cousin. Too cute!

bagforkids
Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 88 Comments: 10207
86. juslivn
2:29 AM GMT on December 21, 2012
Wab, we really may actually have more of an ice event. What fell was a lot of rain, and some very wet, wet snow. Now the wind is picking up (wind chill is 24) and this is starting to ice up the railings on my deck. The snow is not sticking to the pavement (driveway) but IS sticking to the grass etc... Looks like a very heavy band is just about through Rockford, on it's way here.
We only have a dusting sticking at the moment. Winds are fluctuating our power already. Maybe 25mph gusts? Not outside much, but I can hear it.

Back to you, ;) j/k


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85. whitewabit (Mod)
11:49 PM GMT on December 20, 2012
Jus .. sure your not under a Blizzard Warning too .. if not your right very unusual ..

30 degrees, with the wind increasing now out of the northwest 35 with gust to 47 .. snow sticking and brother called upon getting home and said white out conditions with visibility down to less then 100 ft at times ..

Glad your home safe !!!
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84. juslivn
11:41 PM GMT on December 20, 2012
I made it!!! Actually I was home a while ago before the snow started. It started about 3:30 pm here. Then I quick ran to the bank and drove in it.

The commute for dau and others is going to be hell at 5pm! It could be worse that we are on the edge of this thing because people stayed at work and made plans figuring it won't be bad. Hmmmmm

Wab - Wow! That's so unusual for you to have the blizzard warnings and we don't. Wait--strike that. I remember years when storms would consistently be South of the city. Hope it's not too, too bad down your way. Thanks for the report!

Hiya NEw! We keep missing each other like ships in the night. Oh well. I have no where to go tonight but my husband still needs to get home from the train later than usual due to a Christmas party. Let's hope he makes it. Need to check if you are forecast for anything yet. What a huge storm!

Hello Ozgalah, glad your hubby is now home for the holidays and you can all relax. Rain by you sounds like a good thing! Hope you fill up the barrels--well slowly--anyway. No flooding rains allowed ;) Mom really got lucky this time flying in just before the storm. Lucky break!
Have a very Happy Christmas if we don't get back to blogging with all our activities this week!

GG -- Love It!!! What a cute shot! Great card, great card! Thanks for the laughs.
You are right! We'll have plenty of warmth, lol from all these bodies here! ROTF!

Sandi - The sewing machine arrived!!!!! They delivered it while I was at work. I am excited, but I haven't opened it yet because I truly need quiet time to examine everything and figure where I will be comfortable placing it, etc...
As to the market--well I can speak for myself and my area and it was certainly a better year. Glad to see all those figures on the rise for the country. Let's hope 2013 is even better!
The kitchen last night was a wonderful place to be with my daughter baking her cookies she needed for gifts, and chatting with mom. The little ones come Saturday (did I already post this?) for a Christmas cookie making party with 'Grandma'. I am really looking forward to it. Thanks for stopping in. I'll visit you, shortly :)

BF - Thanks for the updates, ROTF. I got my youknowwhaty home quick! Thunder snow? Maybe?

Wab - maybe thundersnow down by you?

Ok all - I'm out to entertain the troops :p Stay safe all!
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83. juslivn
8:16 PM GMT on December 20, 2012
Ohhhhhh I Have A Weather Blog??? LOLOL Thanks for all the posts! I will take your advice and begin to head for home. Still raining here in Lindenhurst. If this were snow, it would be a whiteout!

Thanks all I'll log back on when I get home safe and sound ::)))
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82. whitewabit (Mod)
7:08 PM GMT on December 20, 2012
Jus .. they rescinded the Winter storm Warning and we are now under a Blizzard Warning here in central Il ..

Edit .. we are still under a High Wind Warning also ..
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81. Barefootontherocks
6:58 PM GMT on December 20, 2012
Oooohhh. Look at your radar. Just saw this MCD also. At least it's snow and not ice. Glad your mom arrived already. Maybe you should get your Arse home, if you're not there already. Please take car (lol, CARE) on the roads.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2191
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1052 AM CST THU DEC 20 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN MO...FAR ERN IA...CNTRL/NRN IL

CONCERNING...BLIZZARD

VALID 201652Z - 202245Z

SUMMARY...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE MS RIVER LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS A STRONG
SFC LOW DEEPENS AND SNOWFALL INTERACTS WITH VERY STRONG WINDS.

DISCUSSION...RECENT WATER VAPOR/IR SATELLITE LOOPS DEPICT A
WELL-DEFINED COMMA HEAD STRUCTURE WITH A COMPACT VORT CENTER
APPROACHING THE MS RIVER N OF ST. LOUIS. AN ASSOCIATED 985-MB SFC
LOW IS ANALYZED JUST NW OF PEORIA AT 16Z. ENHANCED CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY AND WEAK WAA WITHIN THE BRANCH OF THE BIFURCATED WARM
CONVEYOR BELT THAT WRAPS AROUND THE CYCLONE WILL SUPPORT BANDS OF
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW W/SW OF THE SFC LOW...WHICH IS
FORECAST TO TRACK NEWD AND REACH CHICAGO BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 0.5-1 IN/HR WILL BE COMMON WITH THIS ACTIVITY. AN
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE MAY OCCUR WITH THE MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL
RATES.

THE TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WITHIN THE WRN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW
WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN AS THE LOW DEEPENS AT A RATE OF 0.5 TO 1 MB PER
HOUR. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO ITS INTERACTION WITH A SECONDARY SUBTLE
VORT MAX NEAR THE APEX OF THE DRY SLOT CURLING INTO THE COMMA HEAD
NEAR CHICAGO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 45-60 KT OF 0-1-KM MEAN
FLOW EVOLVING WITHIN THE SWRN QUADRANT OF THE LOW...WHICH WILL
LIKELY BECOME MANIFESTED AT THE SFC AS WLY TO NWLY WINDS OF 35-50
MPH WITH GUSTS REACHING 60 MPH. HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THE SPATIOTEMPORAL PHASING OF THESE WINDS WITH THE SNOW FOR 2-4
HOURS WILL OCCUR...CREATING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH NEAR-ZERO
VISIBILITIES.

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE MS RIVER PRIOR TO
18Z...REACHING A LINE FROM NEAR ROCKFORD TO SPRINGFIELD BY 20Z...AND
A LINE EXTENDING FROM E OF ROCKFORD TO NEAR BLOOMINGTON/NORMAL BY
22Z.
INITIALLY...RAIN/SLEET MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH THE PRECIPITATION
BEFORE A QUICK PHASE CHANGE TO SNOW OCCURS AS THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE
COOLS.

..COHEN.. 12/20/2012
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80. sandiquiz
4:57 PM GMT on December 20, 2012
Today, I work again! Thought I was done :( I suppose that is good. Usually it's dead around the holidays.

I read this earlier when I had a flying visit, then funnily enough I was reading the news from the BBC on the Internet and saw this as the headlines!

"Sales of previously owned US homes rose in November to their highest level in three years, figures have shown.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) said sales rose 5.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.04 million last month.

Meanwhile the economy grew faster than previously thought in the third quarter, at an annualised rate of 3.1%."


Perhaps the recession is finally pulling itself up out of the doldrums!


Golly, you do sound to have a houseful. Hope all goes well at least you should have plenty of help in the kitchen!!
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79. NEwxguy
4:03 PM GMT on December 20, 2012
GM,good to hear your Mom got in safe and sound,does sound like a houseful.Yeh,I have to check my gutters too,glad you reminded me.
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78. GardenGrrl
1:33 PM GMT on December 20, 2012
Holy Wind Gusts Batman! Was looking at the isobars on the big map. Don't need that kind of wind with snow.
Glad you got your Mom and the rest of the tribe in. I imagine with all those dogs and people that if the power goes out you will still have the warmest house on the block. Stay safe and Happy Holidays!

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77. juslivn
1:24 PM GMT on December 20, 2012
Raining cats and dogs :) Really!

It is cooooold rain here for us. No snow, but I see it creeping on that radar.
Unfortunately, it appears I have a full gutter over my screen porch (splashing in from the top roof!) We haven't had a downpour like this for a long time so had no idea it was jammed.
Must call someone to clean them before the roof is ruined from an ice jam when it freezes. It never ends. Really high up there...really high.

Today, I work again! Thought I was done :( I suppose that is good. Usually it's dead around the holidays.

I'll try to post more weather later. As you know, I can't do winter maps very well like Blizz. I wish someone would do a midwest blog like his. I'd participate in at least providing what's happening here.

Have a great Thursday because tomorrow is Friday :)
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76. juslivn
3:17 AM GMT on December 20, 2012
Hi all. Mom has arrived safely and am making gingerbread cookies with my oldest and watching Chicago Fire. Finally had a chance to look at the weather. I'm prepared for anything though, now.

Dogs have moved back in with me early. So, I have Molly, Meatloaf and Boomer along with a full house! Ya hooooo! Let the holidays begin! (mom looks good and we'll have fun. Dogs are being great :)

More on the Winter storm when I catch up or check local cause the line is kind of iffy there above us in WI, IL border...
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75. whitewabit (Mod)
12:19 AM GMT on December 20, 2012
Jus .. only expecting 1-2 inches of snow down here .. but those winds, 35-40 with gust to 55 mph, will be the killer dropping wind chills down to 0 degrees and making driving hazardous ..
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74. ozgalah
9:33 PM GMT on December 19, 2012
Morning Jus,
Well if the world ends tomorrow we should be first to go on a time scale so keep watching!!! Looking at the weather, a white Christmas???? We are looking at RAIN for Christmas day, all good just put in new rainwater tank so need it to fill it. H finished work yesterday so now on holiday!
Stay warm and safe. Hope your Mom arrives safely.
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73. NEwxguy
1:44 PM GMT on December 19, 2012
Morning,Jus,lets hope the higher totals stay north of you,but definitely looks like a pretty strong wind event for you.Good luck!!!
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15988
72. juslivn
11:02 AM GMT on December 19, 2012
Blizzard Warnings have now been issued for Parts of Iowa and Wisconsin for TONIGHT! Then, as the line moves East, depending on where the rain snow line falls, we have Winter Storm watches in Illinois.

Just to our North and West, Potentials for 10-12 inches with strong winds.
We may not get those kind of totals here in N. IL and Chicagoland.
The alerts I've posted below are for N. Illinois Counties. Please check local news.

Believe it or not, I have quite a bit to do to prepare for this storm. I have no firewood dry inside for heat if we lose power. I have to change out my water supply...and I need to get kits into my cars. Guess I didn't expect our first storm to be a blizzard so close by.

Statement as of 4:03 AM CST on December 19, 2012

... Winter Storm Watch now in effect from Thursday afternoon
through Thursday evening...


* timing... rain will change to wet snow Thursday afternoon with
snow... possibly heavy at times... likely to linger into Thursday
evening. Strong winds will develop later Thursday afternoon and
continue Thursday evening.

* Snow accumulation: current indications are that totals of 2 to 4
inches are possible... however the amounts will depend heavily
on how quickly the rain changes to snow. If the change over
occurs early enough then heavier snow amounts could
occur... conversely if the change over were to be later Thursday
then accumulations could end up on the lower end of that range.


* Wind: winds will become northwest and increase to 25 to 35 mph
Thursday afternoon and continue into Thursday evening with
gusts up between 40 and 50 mph expected.

* Impacts... the combination of the snow and very strong winds will
result in greatly reduced visibilities and possibly near
blizzard conditions. Falling temperatures will cause roads to
become snow covered and travel treacherous.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow... sleet... or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

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71. juslivn
5:15 AM GMT on December 19, 2012
Ha ha Bf! Good un! :)
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70. juslivn
5:13 AM GMT on December 19, 2012
9:25 discussion a tad late...don't think I'll make it to the next one. zzzzz.....

"...The primary period of snowfall across the forecast area still is
favored to be Thursday afternoon into the evening...shifting from west
to east...with impacts also increasing quickly through that time
due to the additional hazards of impressive wind gusts and falling
temperatures to below freezing.


Mtf
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69. Barefootontherocks
5:11 AM GMT on December 19, 2012
I'm in the Moooood for Love Weird



You gettin' snow I hope, not ice. Lucky bum.

Good tunes. lol
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68. juslivn
4:50 AM GMT on December 19, 2012
Sheesh, this weather blog thing is just exhausting. ;) night all ships! Twas a dark and stormy dark and stormy. If I'm up, I'll post the new discussion:

Prayers up for all in CT and around the world.
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67. juslivn
4:44 AM GMT on December 19, 2012
But--wait we can't end the world without this!

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OH...sorry, LOLOLOLOL

Ok Back to the real weather. Not thinking this Chicago bound storm is going to end the world (sorry) just mess up the roads enough each day to tick us off, lol.
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66. juslivn
4:36 AM GMT on December 19, 2012
a href="" target="_blank">Link
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65. juslivn
4:26 AM GMT on December 19, 2012
Allloooooo! everyone! BF, Ylee, NEw!!! Ozgalah! It is officially Beer thirty! And we gonna have a good time!

I thought we'd get this celebration off a tad early well, since the world hey, could be 10-9 o're and out hey big buddy...on 12/21nners hey.

So, thought we'd get er started in here!!! Kick that snow plow and rev up the mobile snow devices! We got GAMMMMMEEEEE!
Yahooo... Bring on the end of the world!!! It's all good!

a href="" target="_blank">Link
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64. juslivn
2:08 AM GMT on December 19, 2012
Look, I know that made no sense! We are lucky I have ornaments on my tree--a winter storm...pfft...I pick up my Mother at 2:30 tomorrow from Florida. This is all I know.

Oh, then my son moves BACK INTO THE HOUSE!!!! like the 28th! With the DOGS! It's muddy out. Ok just shoot me! Didn't we just move him into that cute place? Arrgghhhhhh! (just breathe)
Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 88 Comments: 10207
63. juslivn
2:05 AM GMT on December 19, 2012
Hi. Storm Warnings for McHenry County. I can see the trouble with the low setting up and timing.

Ok well, Here is the latest(and I have short lil span of attention :/ so what happened to the weekend storm? I'm in holiday mode, (like the Gov't) "Cliff" notes would help :) Oh, sorry, here's for Thurs...

332 PM CST


The storm (wednesday night through Thursday night)...


Highlights...potent winter storm will bring a variety of weather to
lot County Warning Area Wednesday evening through Thursday night...from rain and
possible thunderstorms for at least parts of the area...ending as a
wind whipped snow. Given overall uncertainty in attaining Winter
Storm Warning snowfall criteria northwest/NC Illinois counties currently under
watch...did not expand watch area or upgrade to a warning with this
package. Becoming increasingly concerned with the high end wind
potential of this system...so have hit it hard in Special Weather
Statement. A high wind watch may be needed with next forecast update.


As mentioned in am afd update...track guidance amongst 12z
operational runs...including European model (ecmwf)/ecmwfens which had been south of
other guidance prior to 00z/12z runs today...has a fairly tight
clustering. The center of the intense middle latitude cyclone will pass
near or probably just south of Chicago over extreme Northwest
Indiana by middle day Thursday..give or take a few hours. 00z radiosonde observation
sampling of midlevel wave that will result in cyclogenesis over the
southwest US this evening may still lead to some additional
track/timing refinements in tonight/S 00z model cycle.


The consensus forecast track of the deepening surface low from the
Southern Plains through the middle MS valley and just south of Chicago
into SW lower Michigan by Thursday early evening. At the same
time...strong midlevel trough initially just off to northwest of cyclone
is prognosticated to phase with northern stream energy currently marked by 500 mb
temperatures of -40c over Pacific northwest and close off into an anomalously deep
closed low over northern Illinois Thursday afternoon...tracking off to
northeast. This system will quickly take on the hallmarks of a
classic middle latitude cyclone...with large dry intrusion indicated
by lower relative humidity between 700 mb and 300 mb wrapping into area early Thursday.
Favored the GFS and European model (ecmwf) global models for their generally better
handling of large systems such as this as compared to the higher
res WRF-NAM....which resulted in a slower timing of transition
from mainly rain to snow in County Warning Area.


Tomorrow night...with deep saturation prognosticated by 00z and warm air advection/extreme
height fall assisted forcing possibly even underdone by
guidance...went out The Gate with categorical probability of precipitation except for far
east. Thermal profiles indicate rain for most of the area...except
for perhaps far northwest County Warning Area...where I included a chance that snow could
mix in. The impressive trowal feature where a heavy snow band is
likely to develop will be well off to the west at that point. Felt
it was reasonable to include a slight chance for thunderstorms and rain County Warning Area wide due
to very steep midlevel lapse rates advecting in with deep/cold upper
trough. Given the strong warm surge in advance of the system...temperatures
are likely to slowly rise for most of the area...except for possibly
staying steady in the northwest. Temperatures may approach 50 in southeast
County Warning Area by daybreak.


As dry intrusion wraps into County Warning Area early Thursday...this will cut
off saturation aloft for a good portion of the area...so that
showery precipitation and even areas of drizzle are expected east of
I-39. Isolated thunder will continue to be a threat for southeast
County Warning Area...where early day highs will be in the lower 50s...with dew
points also approaching 50. Models indicate the presence of very
limited cape in addition to steep lapse rates in this area.


The key for the County Warning Area in terms of snowfall is when the trowal
feature/deformation axis which will be initially off to the
northwest of the area works its way through. When this
occurs...transition will be rapid from light precipitation to a
band of rain/snow changing to all snow and potentially heavy at
times as critical thickness values crash with commencing of very
strong cold air advection. In addition...frontogenesis will be very strong in the
trowal feature given a very tight thermal gradient...so will need
to monitor potential for thundersnow. Utilized the European model (ecmwf)/GFS 700 mb to
300 mb relative humidity fields and thermal fields for progression of rain to snow
transition...which will occur from west to east in the late
morning or early afternoon...and not make it to greater Chicago
and points south and east until the very late afternoon or early
evening.


This brings US to the biggest Point of concern for this forecast. As
the approx 985 mb surface low lifts into SW lower mich by late
Thursday...the result will be extremely impressive isallobaric
pressure rises/3 hour rises of greater than 5 mb. With very strong
cold air advection wrapping in and aforementioned pressure rises...impressive low
level wind field will likely mix down efficiently to surface. Thus
the 50 kt+ winds just off the deck could mix down. Combined with
snow falling at a good clip in northern half of the County Warning Area...blizzard to
near blizzard conditions are possible for a brief time. The
limiting factor will be that the warmer thermal profiles will
result in the snow being quite wet and pasty and thus less likely
to blow and drift until low level Arctic air rushes in. The winds
may also result in minor wind damage...so again could see needing
a high wind watch for parts of the area.


Regarding snowfall amounts...much of the initial quantitative precipitation forecast will fall as
rain...with the trowal/deform band transient enough to limit top
end accumulations even in watch area. Using a Cobb method tool for
snow amounts...expecting at least several inches and possibly up
to as much as 6 inches in northwest/NC Illinois...with a couple/few inches
possible in chicagoland...less to the south. There is still enough
uncertainty that confidence is not high in these amounts. In
existing watch area...did not upgrade due to uncertainty...but
also could see eventually upgrading to a warning in that area
given very high impact but short duration period of winter weather
during afternoon/evening rush. Slower timing of favored European model (ecmwf) and
GFS and still well formed trowal wrapped around system at that
time necessitated categorical probability of precipitation for much of eastern third of
County Warning Area Thursday evening...including possible lake enhancement in a
portion of Northwest Indiana. The majority of the snow accumulation in
the city of Chicago may actually occur Thursday evening/toward the
tail end of the rush. Outside of the continuing snow area...strong
gusty winds will lead to areas of blowing snow.


Finally...Thursday night...outside of the possibly lingering
backside/lake enhanced snow mainly in Porter County Indiana...the
big story will be the bitterly cold air mass rushing in the wake of
the departing storm. Biased temperatures just slightly colder than
previous forecast as strength of low level Arctic air push may be
underdone...although cloud cover may limit how cold temperatures
get. Have lows ranging from middle teens to upper teens west to
east...with lower 20s in downtown Chicago and on the Indiana
Lakefront. Wind chill values could be dangerously low...near or
below zero...by early Friday morning...especially the case given the
near record warm start to December. The winds being slow to wind
down will keep the threat of areas of blowing/drifting snow
going...especially in outlying areas.


Rc


Everything else (not Wednesday night through Thursday night)...


Main concern in the near term is with a possible light rain/snow mix
over the next several hours mainly for the northern half of the
County Warning Area...but with no snow accumulation expected.


Strong pressure falls out ahead of a fairly Stout middle level trough
has allowed for a surface reflection of around 1000mb to shift east
across the area this afternoon...with surface warm front lifting
north across central and east central Illinois. Strong southerly
flow out ahead of this system advecting this warmer/more moist
environment northward has created a tight temperature gradient to
setup across the County Warning Area...with temperatures still in the upper 30s over
the northern County Warning Area and low to middle 40s across the southern County Warning Area.
Synoptic lift owing to this middle level feature as well as strong warm air advection
out ahead of it provided some light snow across mainly the northern
half of the County Warning Area this afternoon but with only trace amounts being
reported. This area of snow has since shifted east/northeast of the
County Warning Area with only light returns on radar currently observed over
northern Illinois. Guidance indicating that some further development
will be possible late this afternoon mainly for northern
Illinois...which seems reasonable as there should be some weak
forcing lingering as this wave continues to progress to the east. So
have maintained chance probability of precipitation for the possibility of a light rain/snow
mix this afternoon. Despite this possibility...am not overly
thrilled as it appears the deeper moisture is rapidly becoming
nonexistent across the County Warning Area. If this trend were to continue there
would be more drizzle than rain/snow this afternoon before
everything exits to the east later this evening.


Rodriguez




Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 88 Comments: 10207
62. juslivn
7:38 PM GMT on December 18, 2012
Ho ho ho an hour more to go!!! LOL! I will have more time to come by and say hi once I am done with work today. Be back later!

P.S. Nothing accumulated, but the big fluffy flakes sure were pretty this morning!
Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 88 Comments: 10207
61. sandiquiz
6:46 PM GMT on December 18, 2012
Ooh, I see white on your map...snow, but how much will come down on you?

Hope it isn't too much, 'cos although it is pretty, it is not very safe to drive in:-(
Member Since: October 29, 2005 Posts: 300 Comments: 27061
60. NEwxguy
2:31 PM GMT on December 18, 2012
Looks like you are going to get hit by this pretty strong storm system.You get the cold side,we will be on the warm side,but no matter what side your on,expect some pretty strong winds.
Have a good day Jus.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15988
59. Barefootontherocks
6:05 AM GMT on December 18, 2012
Ps. Love your decor in the slide show. So far I have hung four giant plastic snowflakes. That may be it. lol Like weather and all else, we'll see what happens.

fields of gold, sting
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 159 Comments: 19362
58. Barefootontherocks
5:51 AM GMT on December 18, 2012
Hi jus,
Oh, "Fly Away Home" (comment 55 vid) is such a good movie. Mary Chapin Carpenter, haven't heard that song ever I don't think. Sweet in a way. And sad. Without Sadness there would be no Joy.

You will get snow. You might want to take a look at bl's new blog if you haven't read it. Not much snow chances here, in central OK. Not till Christmas anyway.
:)

Glad you got the deal closed for the young couple. A happy holiday for them, in no small part thanks to you.

Good night. Sleep well.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 159 Comments: 19362
57. juslivn
5:23 AM GMT on December 18, 2012
Eh, a storm. :(
I went through my day. It was fine. The new couple has their home. I went to be alone. I did not hear any news. I tuned it out.

Our Alert:

Winter storm to impact parts of the region Wednesday night
through Thursday evening...

A rapidly strengthening storm system will approach the area
Wednesday night and track across Illinois and northern Indiana
Thursday. Rain is expected to develop ahead of this
system Wednesday night... with snow possible over northwest
Illinois. As the system moves northeast across the area
Thursday... colder air is expected to change precipitation over to
all snow across north central Illinois by midday... and across
northeast Illinois and Northwest Indiana Thursday afternoon. Snow
will taper off from west to east Thursday night.

The heaviest snow will likely accumulate to the northwest of the
storm track. This would suggest that the heaviest snowfall would
occur across eastern Iowa... northwest and north central
Illinois... and Wisconsin. However... much of the area... including
Chicago... is favored to see some accumulating snow by Thursday
afternoon into the evening... with changes in the track of the low
pressure system having a significant influence on overall
snowfall amounts. A track southeast of Chicago would result in
more snow area wide... while a track over or north of Chicago would
result in much less snowfall.

While there remains quite a bit of uncertainty on snowfall
duration and amounts... one aspect that looks highly likely is
that the west northwest winds will become strong on Thursday
afternoon and evening. Gusts should be up to 40 to 50 mph and
possibly even stronger. Where snow does occur... these wind speeds
will lead to blowing snow and likely severely reduced
visibilities.

Anyone who plans on traveling across the Midwest Wednesday night
through Thursday night should be prepared for difficult travel...
especially for areas west and north of Chicago. It is important to
monitor the latest forecasts on this potential winter storm. In
addition... this storm may significantly impact air travel through
Chicago ohare and Chicago midway airports.
Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 88 Comments: 10207
56. NEwxguy
1:51 PM GMT on December 17, 2012
Excellent songs for the mood of the country.I did not enjoy my long weekend.Start of new week,leading up to the holidays,I suspect the holidays will be very somber this year.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15988

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Located by the Fox River and Chain of Lakes in Northern Il. We boat, fish, love the outdoors, pets, and enjoy life.

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