Rain Event/Severe Sunday (And Saturday Evening? in Northern IL)

By: juslivn , 6:55 PM GMT on March 31, 2012

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New Blog to bring in April. March turned out to be really busy. We'll see where April takes us!

Feel free to jump in with weather anytime since I have less free time. Or drop off a flower or share thoughts. You know I'm close by, but sometimes am just trying to keep up with work.

Spring Smiles to all and Happy Easter and Passover!

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Link to Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service IL:


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213. juslivn
12:18 AM GMT on April 23, 2012
She's coming home. Dreads and all. She's coming home and I guess I just wonder why? We have nothing to offer her here which could come even close to the Rockies! What will we hold her with?
Awe, but Mom you can't hold her. You can only just get a hug for a fleeting moment, then feel her pull away to be set free, to the water, to the fields, to the mountains, under the same moon and sun.

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Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 87 Comments: 10174
212. juslivn
10:47 PM GMT on April 22, 2012
Statement as of 4:36 PM EDT on April 22, 2012

... Freeze warning in effect from 3 am CDT /4 am EDT/ to 8 am CDT
/9 am EDT/ Monday...


The National Weather Service in Chicago has issued a freeze
warning... which is in effect from 3 am CDT /4 am EDT/ to 8 am CDT
/9 am EDT/ Monday.

* Temperature... freezing or below freezing from 28 to 32 degrees.

* Impacts... sensitive vegetation may be damaged or killed by the
freezing temperatures.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A freeze warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or
highly likely. These conditions will kill crops and other
sensitive vegetation.
Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 87 Comments: 10174
211. juslivn
2:25 PM GMT on April 22, 2012
Hi Rob, awe, hug to your good buddy! Hi Sandi! Happy Earth Day to you too, from Chitown!

Serious fire alert south of me here in Illinois. The far North Counties of Illinois took a lot more rain this month than did Counties just below us. They are really dry. Hard to remember an April where we were already talking about dry conditions.
Then again, it's hard to remember an April where the lilacs were already done with their full bloom!

Very, very busy again today. I showed 18 houses yesterday, and today have an open house and have to show 2 more houses, too. Sooooo, thanks for stopping by and if anyone has any updates to add to the weather, please post your thoughts.

Dau should be on the road again any minute now after a stop over. But actually I need to call and check on her.

Have a great Sunday all!
Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 87 Comments: 10174
210. sandiquiz
10:37 AM GMT on April 22, 2012


Happy Earth Day from the middle of England:)

Hope you, the family including the wandering daughter, and all your furry children have a great Sunday:)
Member Since: October 29, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 26853
209. RobDaHood
11:22 PM GMT on April 21, 2012
LOL at the puppy pics!

Ah, the good old days!
Current dog, my daughter got from the humane society.
"They would have killed him daddy!"
She wasn't 18 at the time and couldn't legally, but somehow talked them into letting her adopt him.

It was a tough go for a while. He had an affinity for Angie's shoes. I remember my daughter coming home one afternoon, holding his little face in her hands and saying "She's going to kick you out!"

But with some coaching from the lead dog at the time, and a lot of patience, he turned out to be a great dog!

Was really happy to have him later when the lead dog passed away in my arms on father's day 2004. Little dog, then slightly over 1 year old, worked his way into my heart and is now my best bud.

Have patience. You'll be glad later!
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 101 Comments: 33314
208. juslivn
10:36 PM GMT on April 21, 2012
Hee heee sandy and mush! Ylee, sorry you already planted and could still get a freeze. Your work does sound a bit more nutty then usual, hang in there!

Sorry MN, and IA I was working until now and didn't really know you have bad storms. Not able to track those today. Prayers up for all in those Tornadoes.

Guess who's on the move??? Annnnndddd She's Off! No more snow in the mountains, so Wandering Gypsy packed up in a flash and is headed home! I had no idea until she called me today, lol. Sooooo, lil drivin music pleeeze!

a href="" target="_blank">Link

Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 87 Comments: 10174
207. sandiquiz
12:20 PM GMT on April 21, 2012
Quoting unclemush:
Oh noz Boomer is in trouble.:)

He has been watching the Andrex advert!

Member Since: October 29, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 26853
206. unclemush
8:08 AM GMT on April 21, 2012
Oh noz Boomer is in trouble.:)
Member Since: July 7, 2001 Posts: 59 Comments: 13166
205. Ylee
6:07 AM GMT on April 21, 2012
Hi, Jus! It'll be almost as bad here tomorrow night! Don't know yet if I'll have to put buckets on the tomatoes I just set!

Work has been nuts! Everything's going haywire, salary's been complaining to me about hourly, and hourly's been complaining to me about salary(why me?). I'm tired, I ache, I still have 6 hours to go before I get out of this dump. Oh, well, just muddle through it all, I guess! :)

Catch you later, maybe with a new blog?
Member Since: February 3, 2011 Posts: 97 Comments: 16320
204. juslivn
5:15 AM GMT on April 21, 2012
Hey? What happened to April? And Spring? It's cold!!! 35 degrees here and clearing skies (which is not good). Frost alert just West of McHenry County and Chi Suburbs. UGH! What happened to Spring in Winter? We've got Winter in Spring now, lol.

Oh well let's just do puppy pictures...

I have no idea how early this pup got up and nabbed this TP.

Night all ships. Be safe. New blog very soon.


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Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 87 Comments: 10174
203. Ylee
9:44 AM GMT on April 20, 2012
Looks like you're getting rain, too!
Member Since: February 3, 2011 Posts: 97 Comments: 16320
202. juslivn
4:37 AM GMT on April 20, 2012
Hi Rob! Raiiiiinnnnn!!! Yay! You have some rain. And more on the way I believe? Good. It's about time you guys got into the action and out of drought! Hope for no flooding. Fingers crossed.

Ok Over and out til I can update this waaayyyy over due new blog :) be safe all ships. Can't hear the trains tonight, the winds are blowing out.
Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 87 Comments: 10174
201. RobDaHood
12:53 AM GMT on April 20, 2012
Hey Jus!

Get some rest, you worked hard covering all the bad storms.

Finally got rain today.
Had to go stand in in to remember what it felt like.
More in the forecast through Monday!
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 101 Comments: 33314
200. juslivn
12:16 AM GMT on April 20, 2012
Funny, I was on my way to look at your site. Thanks BF and Hi all!

Sandi, BC, Ylee - thanks for checking in. It just got nutty around here for the past few days and didn't even get a chance to put up a new blog.

BF - I think Dau is going camping with friends tomorrow, so they are paying pretty close attention to make a decision. The cold front is going to drop temps to like 44 degrees and they are debating not going at all.

I'll be back to put up a new blog when I get more time, and will be around here and there but Sunday actually looks like the first day off. Take care!
Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 87 Comments: 10174
199. Barefootontherocks
12:02 AM GMT on April 20, 2012
Hi jus,
A head's up. Jackie and Co, southcentral OK under a T-storm watch tonight. Hail and wind. Tor risk low.

Have a good eve.
:)
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 157 Comments: 19204
198. sandiquiz
10:29 AM GMT on April 18, 2012
Hang in there girl...glad all are OK and you arejust busy - we will still be here when you have time to check in :)
Member Since: October 29, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 26853
197. BriarCraft
7:59 PM GMT on April 17, 2012
Relieved and glad to hear that all is "basically fine" but you're "extremely busy". If you hadn't said that, we'd all be worrying. I expect with high winds enough to cause power outage, you probably have some storm damage to clean up and/or repair. But we know you and yours are okay and that's the main thing. Take care!
Member Since: June 21, 2004 Posts: 85 Comments: 4297
196. Ylee
7:41 PM GMT on April 17, 2012
Gee, I was hoping you'd be able to catch a breath after the goings-on this week! :(

Take care, jus! We'll be here when you get back!
Member Since: February 3, 2011 Posts: 97 Comments: 16320
195. juslivn
1:40 AM GMT on April 17, 2012
Hi, the power is on. Drama here...total drama. And, it was bad winds all day. Thank goodness it wasn't tornadoes. Sorry. I'll bbl

Tuesday Add: basically all is fine--everyone here is ok. But I am not going to blog for a few days due to being extremely busy. Take care all!
Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 87 Comments: 10174
194. NEwxguy
1:23 PM GMT on April 16, 2012
Hi,Jus,happy Patriot's Day.Oh right no one outside of New England ever heard of Patriot's Day.Just a local holiday acknowledging the first battles of the revolutionary war that started it all.I still have to work,so it don't mean much to me other than the history.
Wonder if you got your power back yet,those must have been some strong winds.We approaching 90 today,not good news for the runners in the Boston Marathon today.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 887 Comments: 15965
193. RobDaHood
1:01 PM GMT on April 16, 2012
Quoting juslivn:
we lost power. Winds r high here. Good night again.
You posted the wrong Journey tune.
Should have been "Lights".

Hope you got your power back, but really hope you got some sleep.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 101 Comments: 33314
192. masshysteria
11:48 AM GMT on April 16, 2012
Quoting juslivn:
we lost power. Winds r high here. Good night again.


Good Mornin' (((Jus)))!

Hope that, by now, your power's been restored (or will be very soon) and no further damage has been done by the high winds that swept through your area last night! It's mind boggling that over 100 tornadoes allegedly touched down in the Plains States in just one day on Saturday. So much devastation these days and in recent years!

Hope you and yours remain safe and can get back online to report sometime soon!
Member Since: June 21, 2006 Posts: 64 Comments: 7714
191. juslivn
6:23 AM GMT on April 16, 2012
we lost power. Winds r high here. Good night again.
Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 87 Comments: 10174
190. juslivn
5:04 AM GMT on April 16, 2012
Ha hahahaha! You are right!

It is still REALLY windy (uhm Romeoville, eh hemmm)
I am passing the controls off. Have at it night shift!

I just saw this and thought it was cool. Night all.

a href="" target="_blank">Link



Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 87 Comments: 10174
189. Barefootontherocks
4:26 AM GMT on April 16, 2012
Well, I don't know if that's the same guy. I might be. It could be. I guess I didn't state it clearly.

Dang. What a weekend.

A memento of the day your basement got wet...
:)



Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 157 Comments: 19204
188. juslivn
4:16 AM GMT on April 16, 2012
Ok Frost alert, LOL!

Good night. W/a song. Hope you like it :)

Be safe all ships at sea, or in port, or where ever you may be! Trains are goin to bed.

a href="" target="_blank">Link
Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 87 Comments: 10174
187. juslivn
3:59 AM GMT on April 16, 2012
BF - #184 add: Whhhaaaat? That would be a bonus!!!!! Wow. That's just totally freaky, because that was a totally random pick from ytube! Uhm...yes. Go and put that at Aubie's aye! OH my!

It is very windy here all of a sudden, but I think we are ok.
Very, very happy no one was killed tonight.

I think they did very well, the SPC and ALL of our offices of NWS!!! Awesome job you all! Thank you.

Prayers up for anyone affected. Let's put this weekend in the can. 'Friday the 13th weekend outbreak'

I may close this blog with a song. Maybe one more post and a quick check to make sure there is nothing left West of Lake MI...Stay safe East!!!



Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 87 Comments: 10174
186. juslivn
3:35 AM GMT on April 16, 2012
AND NOW for something completely different...yahooooo!

a href="" target="_blank">Link
Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 87 Comments: 10174
185. juslivn
3:30 AM GMT on April 16, 2012
Alright, just S.W. of Madison fired off all of a sudden. We'll see.

We still have lights flickering. Doesn't take muchm, eh?

Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 87 Comments: 10174
184. Barefootontherocks
3:21 AM GMT on April 16, 2012
At least a low potential increasingly organized convectively enhanced damaging wind threat.

That's a mouthful. Accordions right into the Girl from Ipanema. Or it into it. I just played Gracie Slick. LMAO

'Nite.

Ps. I did listen. Pretty good. Used to be a blogger here, Canadian I think, whose handle was accordionboy. Might still come around once in a while as snowboy. Wonder what ever happened to moonlightcowboy.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 157 Comments: 19204
183. juslivn
3:19 AM GMT on April 16, 2012
Ok wait, the little fishy just went nuts in its tank on my counter in the kitchen....something's gonna happen? (Maybe you all remember me rescuing the fish from the basement? He's still doing well.)

Think I missed this one.





URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 180
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
445 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN ILLINOIS
EASTERN MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM 445 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
WEST PLAINS MISSOURI TO 20 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF QUINCY
ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 177...WW 178...WW 179...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS IN PROGRESS OVER CNTRL MO ARE EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL WITH
MLCAPE OF GENERALLY LESS 500 J/KG...THE PRESENCE OF STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR AND INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT INDICATE A RISK OF EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A
COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22040.


...MEAD
Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 87 Comments: 10174
182. juslivn
3:02 AM GMT on April 16, 2012
img src="">

BF: That one looked very simple to understand, lol. And there were two places in the country which had colorful red circles...so I figured that was something to look at. I like those easy ones ;)



THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 178 CONTINUES.

ALTHOUGH NOT YET CERTAIN...IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT A NEW WW MAY BE
NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN...EAST OF WW 178...BY 04Z.

FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF A DEEP MID-LEVEL CYCLONE...WHICH IS IN THE
PROCESS OF LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS EVENING...IS MAINTAINING A NARROW
PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY HAS NOT SHOWN RECENT
SUBSTANTIVE SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION. BUT STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN STILL SEEMS TO PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR AN INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY AND STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR. ON THE NOSE OF A 60-70 KT 850 MB JET...IT IS STILL NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS COULD INCREASE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...TOWARD
THE RHINELANDER AREA BY 04-05Z.

..KERR.. 04/16/2012




Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 87 Comments: 10174
181. Barefootontherocks
2:49 AM GMT on April 16, 2012
Looks like rain still coming your way. Basement does not sound fun. Maybe Boomer can help drain the basement out.
:)
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 157 Comments: 19204
180. Barefootontherocks
2:45 AM GMT on April 16, 2012
Quoting juslivn:
Hi, and, I just watched Dr. Forbes. It was actually a really good update. He says that if things pop badly it will still be in that area (clash of the titons) of Wisconsin/MN border where the cold front fights to the death with the warm air to the East.
They hit the ring n Sconsin -- Sunday, Sunday Sundayyyyy....lol along the Mississippi.

Look at this...(oh this was quite cool when WI was up at like 60 but now it updated. Sorry. But TX is still off the charts.)

This is Iowa and Wisconsin:



This is the Texas storm:


You come up with the best maps.
:)

Had to go see what it was at the SPC help at mesoanalysis page.

Craven Significant Severe Parameter

The simple product of 100mb MLCAPE and 0-6km magnitude of the vector difference (m/s; often referred to as "deep layer shear") accounts for the compensation between instability and shear magnitude. Using a database of about 60,000 soundings, the majority of significant severe events (2 inch hail, 65 knot winds, F2 tornadoes) occur when the product exceeds 20,000 m3/s3.

The index is formulated as follows:

C = (mlCAPE J/kg) * (SHR6 m/s)

For example, a 0-6-km shear of 40 knots and CAPE of 3000 J/kg results in a Craven SigSvr index of 60,000. Units are scaled to the nearest 1000 on the web plot.

Along the band of storms in LA And SE TX is 25. And the contour touching Galveston Bay is 30. Then down by Corpus and Brownsville is higher yet, 40-50. Kind of corresponds with the current bands of storms.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 157 Comments: 19204
179. juslivn
1:37 AM GMT on April 16, 2012
Wind advisory cancelled. Thunder on the mountain (well, here on the little hill of a driveway :) anyway. I'm a bit peeved with my hill after last night's shenanigans and dumping so much rain in my walk out basement :(



Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 87 Comments: 10174
178. juslivn
1:14 AM GMT on April 16, 2012
Rain with this...may be the issue more than severe. But heads up Chi.
And expect another line a bit later as well heading northeast from the other line. More rain. Yikes.



Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 87 Comments: 10174
177. juslivn
1:07 AM GMT on April 16, 2012
Hi, and, I just watched Dr. Forbes. It was actually a really good update. He says that if things pop badly it will still be in that area (clash of the titons) of Wisconsin/MN border where the cold front fights to the death with the warm air to the East.
They hit the ring n Sconsin -- Sunday, Sunday Sundayyyyy....lol along the Mississippi.

Look at this...(oh this was quite cool when WI was up at like 60 but now it updated. Sorry. But TX is still off the charts.)

This is Iowa and Wisconsin:



This is the Texas storm:

Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 87 Comments: 10174
176. Barefootontherocks
12:48 AM GMT on April 16, 2012
Well, except our discussion said conditions were favorable for after sunset development, too
OK. That's what I was wondering.

On radar, a little band of fast-moving storms whose heading looks Rockford, IL. Wind, maybe hail.

MCD re: tor watch to the south with E moving line that's also creeping N.
Oops, you got it. And you bolded the same part I did. lol
:)
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 157 Comments: 19204
175. juslivn
12:39 AM GMT on April 16, 2012
Hi Shore, I got through a bit of that, but need to go back to it. That looked interesting and cannot believe they'd delay life-saving information.

New MCD bringing the line from AR into MO and then to West Central IL.

We should be seeing some more action from our S.W. (central by Moline again) in a while.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0556
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0728 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN AR...ERN MO...FAR WRN IL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 179...180...

VALID 160028Z - 160130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 179...180...CONTINUES.

A LOOSELY ORGANIZED QLCS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS ERN
MO/AR...WITH RADAR REFLECTIVITY INDICATING OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED
CIRCULATIONS CAPABLE OF ENHANCING WIND GUSTS...BUT A SLOW WEAKENING
TREND HAS BEEN NOTED IN RECENT SCANS. KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT
ALONG/AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE LINE CONTINUES TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
DMGG WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...WITH BOTH ILX/LSX VWP DATA
SHOWING VERY STRONGLY SHEARED PROFILES /0-1 KM HELICITY GREATER THAN
500 M^2/S^2/.
PRIMARY FACTOR THAT APPEARS TO BE INHIBITING A MORE
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD THREAT ATTM IS MARGINAL INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM
FROM ONGOING CONVECTION. 00Z SOUNDING FROM ILX INDICATED AROUND 400
J/KG OF MLCAPE...WITH POOR LAPSE RATES OBSERVED WITHIN THE 1-3 KM
AGL LAYER. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NEAR-SFC BASED PAST
SUNSET...AND WITH PERSISTENCE OF A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET ALONG WITH
MID/UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH
MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA...AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR DMGG
WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD CONTINUE.


..ROGERS.. 04/16/2012
Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 87 Comments: 10174
174. shoreacres
12:25 AM GMT on April 16, 2012
Jus -

I picked this up in the comments to one of Reed Timmer's posts on FB (no, I'm not there, but he posts a lot of his stuff publicly).

It's really interesting - if nothing else, stick it in your files for a read later. It's about EAS generic interruptions of specific weather broadcast info.
Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
173. juslivn
12:16 AM GMT on April 16, 2012
Hi Pros, all is well here. It is windy, and ominous with humidity and 72 degrees, but we are ok for now. I hope my friends in Minneapolis etc...are all ok, too. Thank you for stopping by and your concern. Can't wait to get back to normal and post flowers and puppies :)
Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 87 Comments: 10174
172. juslivn
12:14 AM GMT on April 16, 2012
Well, except our discussion said conditions were favorable for after sunset development, too. Seems stalled? I mean, I love being at 72 degrees April 15 at 7 pm. but :0 Hmmm

-jus- opens search for new discussions.
Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 87 Comments: 10174
171. Proserpina
12:12 AM GMT on April 16, 2012
Hi Jus, checking to see how things are going in your area weatherwise. I have been watching the news, it seems that the weather has not been kind in some parts of the USA. Sending prayers that nothing serious will happen your way, nor BF's way.
Member Since: May 6, 2008 Posts: 176 Comments: 18340
170. Barefootontherocks
12:09 AM GMT on April 16, 2012
doesn't that wording simply sort o mean we should be under a Tornado Watch??? lololol.
Yayah. They're still on the fence about it. Wonder if they're thinking tor potential will diminish after sunset.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 157 Comments: 19204
169. juslivn
11:53 PM GMT on April 15, 2012
Had a report on twitter that the loop flooded, but it is subsiding now. Storm moving over the lake.

Add: Oh sorry, hi Rob :) thx for your kind words!
Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 87 Comments: 10174
168. RobDaHood
11:32 PM GMT on April 15, 2012
Jus and Barefoot,

You are both doing such a great job of covering this. Many of us with friends and family of friends in harms way really do appreciate it.

Hope all will be safe.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 101 Comments: 33314
167. juslivn
11:29 PM GMT on April 15, 2012
Call me nutty, but doesn't that wording simply sort o mean we should be under a Tornado Watch??? lololol.

Hey. Observation. Is this the first time in days we have gone for a rather long time without any kind of severe warning anywhere in the country? I think it's been 20 minutes. Hmmmm.

Starting to worry if my link to COD is bad?
Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 87 Comments: 10174
166. Barefootontherocks
11:18 PM GMT on April 15, 2012
Ugh. Almost guessed it right.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0554
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0612 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 152312Z - 160015Z

PORTIONS OF NRN IL ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TSTM INTENSITY/COVERAGE
EXISTS...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED.

ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST HR SW OF THE CHICAGO
METRO AREA...WITHIN A BROAD LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME AHEAD OF A STRONG
CNTRL PLAINS CYCLONE. A LACK OF DISCERNABLE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES IS
LEADING TO LARGELY UNFOCUSED DEVELOPMENT OF NEW
CONVECTION...YIELDING CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY TO EVOLUTION AND
EVENTUAL COVERAGE OF THE POTENTIAL THREAT. HOWEVER...THE ENVIRONMENT
ACROSS THIS AREA IS STRONGLY SHEARED /0-1 KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 30 KTS
PER LOT VWP/...SUPPORTIVE OF DMGG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO
SHOULD CONVECTION CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE
ALSO INDICATES LLJ SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH AT LEAST
04Z...WHILE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REMAIN NEAR SFC-BASED.
INSTABILITY REMAINS SOMEWHAT OF A LIMITING FACTOR /NEAR 1000 J/KG
MLCAPE PER RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/ AS WIDESPREAD STRATUS OBSERVED ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP HAS LIKELY LIMITED DIABATIC HEATING SOMEWHAT.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ISSUANCE OF A
POTENTIAL WW.

..ROGERS.. 04/15/2012
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 157 Comments: 19204
165. Barefootontherocks
11:15 PM GMT on April 15, 2012
No thanks necessary, jus. Saw the text but not graphic on tor watch. don't see how this can move real far north into MN. Warm sector looks like just in the MN boot toe. (amatuer guess!)

Maybe that MO tor watch will creep further into IL. More warm sector over that way all the way N to you and the lower half of WI, looks like.

Mesoanalysis brown sector, temp, wind, dewpoint.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 157 Comments: 19204
164. juslivn
11:12 PM GMT on April 15, 2012
Heads up a bit Chicago and the south side... I wouldn't really mention this, but it may be a developing line? And, there are a heck o a lot o peeps there hey.

Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 87 Comments: 10174
163. juslivn
11:00 PM GMT on April 15, 2012
I will post the update to the tornado watch as well, shortly.
New MCD



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0553
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0554 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL MN...INCLUDING THE MINNEAPOLIS/ST. PAUL
METROPOLITAN AREA...PARTS OF NW WI

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 178...

VALID 152254Z - 160030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 178 CONTINUES.

IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT TORNADOES WILL BE PARTICULARLY LONG-LIVED...
BUT THEY MAY BE IMPACTING THE MORE DENSELY POPULATED MINNEAPOLIS/
ST. PAUL AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

VIGOROUS CONVECTION...WITHIN A BAND OF STRONGER DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MID-LEVEL
CYCLONE LIFTING ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA BETWEEN
NOW AND 01-02Z. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STRONG LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR/STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY IS GENERALLY CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG
AND TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED WARM FRONT ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. AND THE LOW-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT RAPIDLY BECOMES STABLE WITH NORTHWARD EXTEND ACROSS AND
TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...A NARROW CORRIDOR TO THE
NORTH OF THE FRONT...WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS THE MINNEAPOLIS/ST. PAUL
AREA...APPEARS CONDUCIVE TO ADDITIONAL TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT AS
STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN 50-60+ KT SOUTHERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW MOVE
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 87 Comments: 10174

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Located by the Fox River and Chain of Lakes in Northern Il. We boat, fish, love the outdoors, pets, and enjoy life.

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