Juslivn

Warming and Severe Creeping toward Illinois

By: juslivn, 4:54 PM GMT on April 29, 2011

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5-04-2011








May 19, 2011: It's about time!!! The low will FINALLY move off the East Coast and we will get a pattern change in Northern IL. Whoooo hooooo! Temperatures slowly climbing and clouds moving on. We should see 70 today and maybe, just maybe, that golden orb called the sun. Continuing rising temps and possibility of 80 on Sat/Sun. But with that comes a chance of Thunderstorms beginning tomorrow w/ increasing chances every day until Tuesday. Tuesday we drop back to the mid 60's and lows at night in the 40's.
Saturday, the SPC has IL in the Slight category with a 15% chance of Severe. I expect as we get closer the the time period this may be something to really watch, but the Western portion of IL will need to begin watching even today and through the weekend.
Rain will also be an issue with heavy downpours expected. This could be something to think about if I actually have decent enough weather to plant. I don't want my seeds washed away. Today may be the day to get them firmly in the ground. Have a great weekend all!

May 14, 2011: Cold snap for a few days with rain on and off. Just in time for the weekend, ugh.

May 9th: Warm up time! Will be pleasant today, with a chance of some storms popping and rain later. Pretty much the same tomorrow and Wednesday, but warmer.
The discussion today was very long,may post it below because it was interesting. But basically there are many factors in the forecast and it is 'anyone's guess' where some of these could come together to pop out severe in IL. There is mention of the possibility of tornadoes so we will have to remain alert while enjoying the next couple of days.
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May 6: The Waterway agency announced the entire Chain is open for boating with a submerged debris advisory (as usual in the Spring) They also said Happy Mother's Day.
Again, hard to post this with all the flooding going on in the rest of the country (or drought) and recovery from the storms. Prayers up to all and especially the Mothers working tirelessly to get through these times.
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May 4: They opened the upper river and the Chain, but looks like more rain heading in for a few days, so that may change. We may get a warm up early next week. Looking forward to THAT!!! Be safe all ships...

May 3: Our sunshine was intermittent today, but it sure was nice while it lasted (a whole 2 days, lol) Cold, cold cold operative word here, even though we had some sun. Apparently it is due to that continued blocking pattern over Greenland and North America. Frost warnings persist with the latest tonight (early morning actually) 4am to 8 am. Hard to believe the severe map is so full of white at this time of the year. As I said in another blog, it isn't keeping the dandelions and weeds from their Spring onslaught.
Be safe all and prayers always for all who have it much, much worse than we do.
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April 29 - The sun is finally shining here in Northern Il and Illinois in general IS NOT on the convective outlook map today, for the first time in I don't know how long?
Wind and rain on tap tomorrow (Sat).

Am going on a short trip to Bettendorf, IA/Rock Island and will be close to the Mississippi. Will try to get some pictures. This area is not as affected as down river, but does have a flood warning:
1023 am CDT Fri Apr 29 2011

... Flood Warning remains in effect until further notice...

"The Flood Warning continues for
the Mississippi River at Rock Island ld15.
* Until further notice.
* At 8:00 am Friday the stage was 18.1 feet... and falling.
* Flood stage is 15 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring and is forecast to continue.
* Forecast... fall to 17.7 feet Saturday morning.
* Impact... at 18 feet... water affects sections of River Drive in
downtown Davenport from Gaines street to 4th street. Water affects
2nd street at Iowa. Most of Le Claire park is under water. Water
affects Credit Island."

Lastly, prayers for all affected in April by the tornadoes, fires, flooding, and all Mother Nature threw at the U.S. Good bye April, 2011 and let's hope May brings calm and a chance for people to recover, though it will be slow.









Link to Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service IL:
Link

Updated: 12:45 PM GMT on May 19, 2011

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IL Severe Potential

By: juslivn, 12:47 PM GMT on April 25, 2011

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Chain O'Lakes Note: It appears the Upper Lakes of the Chain and the Upper River is open and only the lower River is no wake.
4-25-2011









The Storm Prediction Center has Southern Illinois marked in the severe area for the next two days as this last slow moving system begins to move on. I believe Wednesday is the first time IL is not in the 'Mod' or 'Low' risk area for more than a week? Not sure about that. However, the torrential rainfall predictions will be quite enough for IL to deal with.
Be safe...looks like a rough time still to come.

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Link to Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service IL:
Link

Updated: 6:31 PM GMT on April 27, 2011

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Severe Potential IL --Good Friday

By: juslivn, 3:25 PM GMT on April 22, 2011

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April 22, 2011 - Good Friday brings in some severe already this morning for the lower portion of IL with severe thunderstorms booming through. Looks like a lot of lightening, strong winds and some hail. The SPC mentions the potential for supercells later this afternoon, but not talking an 'outbreak' which is good. However, the way this Spring has been going, all need to just be very careful. April has just been a fooler.

Northern IL stays in the cold sector, but there is potential for some strong storms as well today.
Take care all ships! Happy and Blessed Easter.

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Link to Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service IL:
Link

Updated: 3:27 PM GMT on April 22, 2011

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Severe Potential

By: juslivn, 1:16 AM GMT on April 12, 2011

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April 18:
Il will need to remain on it's toes for some potentially strong storms. Especially tomorrow night (from what I'm reading) Alert radios on!

Today (Monday) SPC discussion:
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL MO
INTO CNTRL IL...

CONDITIONS ACROSS MO AND IL HAVE EVOLVED SUCH THAT AN INCREASE IN
HAIL PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED TO ACCOUNT FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY DRIVING MECHANISM IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR ACROSS
MO/IL. LATEST EXPERIMENTAL HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS
SCENARIO AND WITH LLJ EXPECTED TO MARKEDLY INCREASE INTO MO/IL IT
WOULD SEEM APPROPRIATE TO ADD A SLIGHT RISK TO THIS REGION FOR AT
LEAST ONE OR MORE ELEVATED EPISODES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD.

Tomorrow (Tuesday) SPC Discussion:

The scenerio gets a little complicated on Tuesday as rain may
continue much of the day over the cold north-central sections of the
area. Meanwhile...a break is expected toward midday over central and
especially southeastern Illinois where instability will increase within
breaks in the clouds. Expect surface-based convective available potential energy in the 2k-3k j/kg
range...and speed/directional shear will increase especially as a
surface wave along the stationary front moves to the St. Louis
vicinity around 00z Wednesday. Helicity will be maximaized near the low
and eastward along the stationary or warm front...where a few
tornadoes will be possible. However...a strong cap will also be in
place in the warm sector which may suppress storms further south and
east. Since the early storm-Mode will be isolated/scattered
supercells...will just have chance probability of precipitation in the warm sector Tuesday
afternoon. As the surface low and attending cold front extending to
its south moves across the area...storm development/coverage will
increase as the primary storm-Mode shifts to a strongly forced
squall line. With this in mind...will go with categorical probability of precipitation
Tuesday evening...then begin to clear things out west-to-east after
06z. Most of the activity should be east of the area by 12z Wednesday.

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April 11, 2011
After a cold, seemingly endless winter, yesterday brought 80 degree temperatures to No. Illinois for the first time. It also brought Spring Storms as we all know. Here in Northern IL, the 'cap' was too strong to allow our area the full force of Mother Nature's wrath. We were very, very lucky.

Literally, as the daylight emerged today, dawn revealed a whole new world. The meager, struggling green buds had Won!!! They exploded in colorful blooms, as if overnight! Spring came to Northern Illinois in the silent blink of an eye. Birds twitterpated and chirped endless rejoice. Cats lay in sunbeams. Deer emerged and ran through the woods in search of the new growth or new love. Neighbors walked babies in strollers, or jogged with a smile and a wave. Toddlers with training wheels enjoyed their new Christmas bikes, up and down the quiet street--back and forth, Momma or Dad close by.

A smiling row of daffodils greeted all! Happy Spring at last Northern IL!

The blooms-- for now --replace my candle for prayers to all struggling throughout the world. The candle stays lit in the heart. Be safe all ships at sea or in port, or where ever you may be.

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Link to Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service IL:
Link

Updated: 10:21 PM GMT on April 18, 2011

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April Roars In: Severe Sunday in IL?

By: juslivn, 4:19 PM GMT on April 04, 2011

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April 6: Want to post a couple of events happening here in IL shortly which may be of interest.

First:
April 30, 2011 - The 2011 Fermilab/WGN-TV Tornado and Severe Weather Seminar will be held at noon and repeated in its entirety at 6pm. These programs are held at Fermilab National Accelerator Laboratory in Batavia, IL. The programs are free of charge, require no tickets and feature seating on a first come, first served basis. For more details visit Tom Skilling's page: Link

Second:
April is Earthquake Preparedness Month in Illinois
by Illinois Emergency Management Agency

Throughout the month of April, IEMA will focus on increasing awareness of the earthquake risk in Illinois and what you can do to be prepared. These efforts will culminate on April 28 with The Great Central U.S. ShakeOut, a multi-state earthquake drill. Nearly 60,000 Illinois residents have already registered to participate in the drill, and IEMA is encouraging even more to join in the drill. To learn more about earthquake preparedness and The Great Central U.S. ShakeOut, visit the Ready Illinois website at www.Ready.Illinois.gov.

And finally, posting the convective outlook for Sunday/Monday. We may warm to 80 degrees here, which will be wonderful, but could bring ominous consequences. The mets are watching this closely (and have been all week) I'll update as needed, and please add any discussion or thoughts.
Be safe all.

Severe Sunday (shifted a bit from yesterday's outlook):




April 4: Storms last night were worse for others farther North and farther South. We really did get lucky (again).
Need to keep watching as the front moves East and causes trouble South. Prayers up.
For Chicagoland, we remain cold for a few days. Then, we may get some gulf moisture and warmer temps at the end of the week. Of course, this could bring some unsettled wx our way. Have a good week all!

Looking forward to Spring Flowers:

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Link to Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service IL:
Link

Updated: 2:08 PM GMT on April 10, 2011

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About juslivn

Located by the Fox River and Chain of Lakes in Northern Il. We boat, fish, love the outdoors, pets, and enjoy life.

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