Juslivn

Quiet and Dry For Chi

Posted by: juslivn, 10:56 PM GMT on August 01, 2010

August 27: The weather turns to pleasant days, and cool nights. Sunday we may see the humidity creep back in with some warmer temps.

Work is very busy. I will pop in and out when I can, and of course will be watching all the activity in the tropics.

The NWS Discussion for today was amusing and sums it up for the next few days. Be safe all ships in port and at sea, where ever you may be.

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville Illinois
318 PM CDT Friday Aug 27 2010

Discussion...
307 PM CDT

Warmer days are just around the corner. Heat and a little more
humidity will return to the area...though nothing to the extent that
was seen in the recent weeks. Chances for any real 'weather' are none
through the weekend and into the middle of next week.

Bubble of high pressure at the surface is schlepping across the Ohio
Valley. As the high transitioned east...winds slowly came around to
the south and southwest...ushering warmer air...generally on the
order of 3 to 6 degrees higher than yesterday. Dewpoints are
anywhere from 5 to 10 degrees higher than this time yesterday as
well. Thankfully with dewpoints still in the 50s...it is still
incredibly beautiful and pleasant. The only change over the next few
days will be slowly warming temperatures. Large scale subsidence
will keep any cloud development at Bay for the next few days
though there is an expected increase in clouds due by the end of
the weekend. Previous model guidance suggested there was a chance
for precipitation as a weak middle level shortwave rotates around the ridge
to the east. With warming temperatures aloft...and a moderate cap
depicted by forecast soundings /though the cap heights vary from
the GFS to NAM/...expect no development. Expect the bigger show
to be later in the week.

Long term forecast still on track from previous shifts. Relative
measure of predictability based off of the ensemble mean guidance
continues with high confidence through the start of the work
week. High pressure will remain over the southwest through the
Tuesday to Wednesday time frame...with overall troughiness across the
west. A strong wave is forecast to dive across the western Continental U.S. And
a low will develop across the High Plains and lift into Canada
Monday afternoon and into Tuesday. A trailing cold front will drop
across the County Warning Area a day or so beyond that. At the forecast 144 hour
mark...guidance has been slowly speeding up the frontal passage...to
sometime overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday morning for the County Warning Area.
The Canadian has been slowing down the frontal passage - but is
still on the order of 12 hours faster than the other two models.
At this point - will keep the precipitation timing closer to that of
ensemble concensus...and did bump up the timing a little.

Shea

August 26 - The rip current alert for Cook County and portions of the lower part of the lake on the IL side have been lifted. However there is still a rip current alert for the lower eastern shores in IN/MI.

Sunny, nice and dry here with some cool evenings ahead. Appears the next chance of rain is next Wednesday...ouch. Hmmmmm.
Have a Great Day All!

For the second time in less then a week, there has been a rip current warning issued for Cook County and Counties in Indiana. There have been four deaths this year due to rip currents, with two just this past weekend.

I am trying to spread the word to teens and young adults in our area who may only go to the beaches occassionally, and are not familiar with what a rip current can do.
I think this discussion is as important (and maybe more interesting) as a discussing seatbelts or auto safety. Especially around here where most kids learn to swim in a pool. They may feel over confident when going to the lake and not understand what they have been caught up in if dragged by a rip current. Ok, down off my little soap box...Here's the warning:

Coastal Hazard Statement
Statement as of 3:37 AM CDT on August 24, 2010

... Rip current risk in effect from late tonight through Thursday
morning...

A cold front will cross the area this evening bringing a shift to
strong northerly winds and building waves. This combination of
high winds and large waves will bring an increased threat for rip
currents from tonight through Thursday morning. The greatest
threat will be along the shoreline of southern Cook County in
Illinois and along the shoreline of lake and Porter counties in
Indiana.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

There is a high risk of rip currents along the lake and Porter
County shoreline in Indiana.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents along the southern Cook
County shoreline in Illinois.

Rip currents are powerful channels of water flowing quickly away
from shore... which occur most often at low spots or breaks in The
Sandbar and in the vicinity of structures such as groins...
jetties and piers. Heed the advice of lifeguards and the beach
patrol. Pay attention to flags and posted signs.

If you become caught in a rip current... do not panic. Remain calm
and begin to swim parallel to shore. Once you are away from the
force of the rip current... begin to swim back to the beach. Do
not attempt to swim directly against a rip current. Even a strong
swimmer can become exhausted quickly.

Please visit the following website to share your thoughts on the
new rip current hazard:

http://www.Weather.Gov/survey/NWS-survey.Php?Code=rcvtecchm

Still Smooth Sailing for us here on the Chain, however Lake Michigan was not so good yesterday. Small craft advisories, and rip current warnings were posted all day yesterday. 2 youths lost their lives in the rip currents while swimming in a clearly marked red flag area. I don't think people understand rip currents off Lake Michigan and how deadly they can be. Very sad.

We didn't venture off of our lakes this weekend. It was beautiful with fishing, swimming and entertaining guests.

Our WX will remain in a quiet period this work week. Appears to be quite a dry spell.

Hoping Danielle behaves and doesn't cause much trouble for anyone. Stay Safe! Have a great week!

(From now on, I am going to post rip current warnings. Mariners should know when there is a small craft advisory, which happens often, so I won't post those.)

August 20:
***** Please See MN TORNADO'S BLOG FOR monitoring of Midwest storms today. Thanks! Until I have to leave...I will be there.

Hot today!!! Then of course, the storms come, just in time for boating! So some of us have to worry about the wx not only on land, but on the water which is always interesting. Will keep a heads up this evening! Those heading North to Wisconsin or Michigan should have their alerts set to their specific location because it may be a bit more severe up north then we expect here.

Have a good weekend everyone!

NWS:

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH MAY PRODUCE:

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT AREAS WEST OF
INTERSTATE 39 THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. A LARGER AND MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS
EVENING...AND MOVE INTO NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS
THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY SPREADING INTO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS EVENING...BUT THE MAIN
THREAT TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

August 16, 2010:
Thought a new week and middle of the month would be a great time to start a new blog thread.
82 is our high for a few days, with a low of 58!!! Did you see that! 58!!! No rain expected until Wednesday.

Before closing out the first part of August, I checked in on Ames, IA. It appears their water supply is back, but they may still have a boil order. Their clean up has begun and let's pray they get a week of nice wx without worries. There appears to be a 50% chance of rain tomorrow, and a chance again on Friday.

Link to Distaster News Network Article concerning the flooding in IA.
Link

Also, I thought I would follow up on the clean up of the oil spill in Michigan. I just happened across this story which is very recent from CNN. Lovely to see some of the animals have recovered with a little help from their friends.

Link

The Entire Chain O'Lakes and the Fox River is now compeletely open for boating. Captains take care for debris in the water (I personally saw quite a bit of loose lumber, possibly from a washed away dock, floating yesterday on the Chain.

FROM THE FOX WATERWAY AGENCY: