Thursday July 03, 2014

By: joHS , 12:25 PM GMT on July 03, 2014

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8. joHS
2:47 PM GMT on July 04, 2014
You Too Skye!
Member Since: August 6, 2013 Posts: 18 Comments: 161
7. Skyepony (Mod)
12:28 PM GMT on July 04, 2014
Happy 4th!!!
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 209 Comments: 39113
6. joHS
12:12 AM GMT on July 04, 2014
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE ARTHUR IS CENTERED NEAR 34.0N 77.2W AT 04/0000 UTC OR
ABOUT 40 NM E OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 110 NM SW OF
CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MOVING N-NE AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 80 KT WITH GUSTS OF 100 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 32N-38N BETWEEN 75W-80W. SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT1/WTNT21
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N19W TO 19N17W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. EXAMINING UPPER AIR TIME SECTION ANALYSES...THE WAVE HAS
PASSED DAKAR SENEGAL AND COINCIDES WITH A GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED
700 MB TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 14W-22W. A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER
SIGNAL IS NOTED ON METEOSAT-9 IMAGERY TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF
THE WAVE...WHILE GENERAL LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE EAST IS
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS
OF WEST AFRICA FROM 08N-18N BETWEEN 07W-14W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N46W TO 21N46W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK 700 MB TROUGHING AND A
BROAD AREA OF 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 40W-
50W. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING AT THIS
TIME WITH THE WAVE DUE TO BEING EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG SAHARAN
AIR LAYER.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N70W TO 22N63W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING BENEATH A BROAD ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 18N68W. DUE
TO THE RELATIVELY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF UPPER LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IMPACTING THE WAVE...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N88W TO 21N86W MOVING W-NW AT 15
KT. THE WAVE IS BEGINNING TO REACH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N78W
AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PROVIDING HIGHER PROBABILITY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-22N BETWEEN 84W-92W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N96W TO 22N95W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES ON A WEAKENING TREND AS THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE WAVE COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BASE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
26N96W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 92W-
97W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N17W TO
07N26W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
07N26W TO 04N31W TO 07N37W TO 05N43W TO 05N52W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-06N BETWEEN 19W-29W.
Member Since: August 6, 2013 Posts: 18 Comments: 161
5. joHS
7:04 PM GMT on July 03, 2014
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
128 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-
144-147-032000-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-
NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
128 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

.NOW...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINED ON THE SPOTTY
SIDE. HENCE...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS
THE AREA. HIGH HUMIDITY COMBINED WITH THESE HOT TEMPERATURES WILL
PRODUCE HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE.

WITH SUCH HOT TEMPERATURES...WE ARE STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED STORMS
TO FORM THROUGH EVENING...BUT IN MOST PLACES THEY WILL OCCUR A LITTLE
LATER THAN ANTICIPATED. ONCE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS START TO OCCUR...
A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS
TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

Member Since: August 6, 2013 Posts: 18 Comments: 161
4. joHS
6:54 PM GMT on July 03, 2014
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE ARTHUR IS CENTERED NEAR 32.4N 78.5W AS OF 03/1500
UTC...OR ABOUT 95 NM S-SW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA... MOVING
N-NE AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUSTS OF 100 KT. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. REGARDING FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF
ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA TONIGHT. NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 31N-35N BETWEEN 75W-80W WITH LIGHTING DATA
SHOWING TSTMS IN THE E SEMICIRCLE OF THIS CONVECTION. ARTHUR
RAINBANDS ARE GENERATING SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS AND N OF 26N BETWEEN 72W-77W. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE HAS COME OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST EARLIER THIS
MORNING. THE WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 16N17W TO 7N18W AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR 15 KT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE WAVE
IS BEING ENGULFED BY THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER DRY AIR WHILE
METEOSAT PSEUDO NATURAL COLOR IMAGERY SHOW DUST ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS AIRMASS IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT. THERE IS NO CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 22N43W TO 11N44W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. THERE IS NO
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AS IT IS EMBEDDED IN THE
DRY AND DUSTY SAHARAN AIR LAYER.

TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N63W TO 11N69W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. LOW-LEVEL
LOW TO MODERATE MOIST AIR ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. THIS FACTOR
ALONG WITH DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT AND STRONG DEEP LAYER
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ARE INHIBITING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS
WESTERN PUERTO RICO WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTENDING TO ADJACENT
WATERS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N85W TO 13N87W...MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND LOW ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR ARE SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS...INCLUDING
NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...BELIZE AND THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 22N94W TO 14N95W...MOVING W AT 20-25 KT DURING
THE PAST 24 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND MOISTURE IN THE SW
GULF SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 25N W OF 92W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 9N13W
TO 7N20W TO 7N28W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 7N28W AND CONTINUES TO A
1015 MB LOW NEAR 8N36W...THEN ALONG 6N49W TO 6N57W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 20W-28W.
Member Since: August 6, 2013 Posts: 18 Comments: 161
3. joHS
4:53 PM GMT on July 03, 2014
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1006 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2014
1006 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

.NOW...
A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE REMAINED IN PLACE BEHIND HURRICANE ARTHUR.
IN ADDITION...THERE WAS A TRAILING CONVERGENCE ZONE THAT HAS BEEN
GENERATING STORMS IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE COMBINATION
OF THIS CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND DAYTIME HEATING
WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED STORMS BUILDING ACROSS THE PENINSULA DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

THE HIGHEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE NORTHWARD FROM LAKE KISSIMMEE AND CAPE
CANAVERAL. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM LIGHTNING STRIKES BUT VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL OCCUR WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER
STORMS. ADDITIONALLY...SOME DRIER MID LEVEL AIR COULD LEAD TO STRONG
WIND GUSTS 45 TO 55 MPH.
Member Since: August 6, 2013 Posts: 18 Comments: 161
2. joHS
4:52 PM GMT on July 03, 2014
1203 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

.SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1203 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

NOW...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES.
THESE STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH AND COULD ALSO
PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH. SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD ALSO MOVE INTO THE NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS WITH
MARINERS EXPERIENCING BRIEF REDUCTION TO THE VISIBILITY AND
LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS.
Member Since: August 6, 2013 Posts: 18 Comments: 161
1. joHS
12:32 PM GMT on July 03, 2014
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
448 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

...A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE BAHAMAS ON
MONDAY...AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
THE WAVE. THE DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IS
THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
400 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...HOT WITH SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...
TODAY...TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A
HURRICANE THIS MORNING AND MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS. ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FL...LOW LVL SW/WSW
WINDS AT 15-20 KNOTS WILL HOLD OFF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BUT
SHOULD SEE DIURNAL REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG A LOW LVL SUBTLE
TROUGH FEATURE THAT WILL EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH ACTIVITY MOVING TOWARD THE EAST COAST. WILL BUMP
POPS UP HIGHER THAN GFS MOS INTO THE 40-50 PCT RANGE WITH GPS PWATS
OF 2.1 INCHES AT ORMOND BEACH AND CAPE CANAVERAL THIS MORNING AND
HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 4KM SPC WRF
INDICATING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SHAVED A DEG OR TWO OFF GFS MOS FOR HIGHS TODAY WITH
YESTERDAYS GFS MOS SHOWING A 3.5 DEG HIGH BIAS AVERAGED OVER OUR
VERIFICATION SITES. STILL WITH OFFSHORE FLOW HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER TO MID 90S OVER MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FL. WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH TODAY WITH SOME GUSTINESS WITH
DAYTIME MIXING. A SMALL LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES.

Member Since: August 6, 2013 Posts: 18 Comments: 161

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About joHS

Insurance agent southeast coast of Flori-duh