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There have been major upgrades this year to the two operational National Weather Service (NWS) regional hurricane prediction systems, the GFDL and HWRF models. Both models did well for track and intensity forecasts for Hurricane Arthur, and the average intensity errors wer comparable to the other two top NWS intensity prediction models (LGEM and DSHIPS.)
Final question: How does climate change affect sea level? The usual suspects are listed as changing the temperature of the ocean and adding water to the oceans from melting ice. These are important and act globally. Climate change and climate variability are also realized in changes to ocean currents. Since these currents are often close to the coasts, there are potential large, rapid and localized changes to sea level. The changes in surface currents in the ocean are related to changes in the stress of winds on the surfaces; hence, there are changes related to atmosphere pressure patterns. There is local variability due to storms and storm surges. And as the ice melts, the land might rise, might fall, also an effect due to climate change. These sources of variability will be important to planning in the next decades, but on the time of a century or longer, adding water to the ocean from melting ice will dominate; there’s really nothing working against it.
Improvements to the PWS database! Please leave any comments and concerns on this blog so we can continue to improve the experience for our PWS owners.
NOAA recently produced an interesting map showing when the hottest day of the year is likely to occur in the contiguous U.S. Complimenting this map is one produced by Brian Brettschneider of Borealis Scientific, LLC, which illustrates the date of summer’s midpoint (peak of summer average temperatures) which was reproduced in my blog posted last August. Brian has also produced maps of such for the Fall, Winter and Spring seasons. There is also some other great material from Brian herein.
Hurricane Arthur makes landfall, Super Typhoon Neoguri threatens Okinawa, and tornadoes hit the Midwest.
Sunday was a beautiful day for fishing in Upstate NY, and over 30 families came out to participate in my youth fishing clinic. Some anglers were more experienced than others, but none of them lacked any enthusiasm. With my personal weather station on site, we began by first stressing the importance of keeping our parks and waters clean.
This season, we hope to deploy a disaster shelter trailer, similar to the one below, which will help us assist shelter operators in making their facilities fully accessible to people with all types of disabilities. This will include ramping, railings, cots, dinner- and drinkware, and assistive technologies for those with vision, hearing, cognitive and developmental delays.
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