tropical storm ernesto

By: ilovehurricanes13 , 4:05 AM GMT on June 27, 2012

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tropical storm ernesto

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188. Stormman2012
12:53 AM GMT on August 10, 2012
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187. Stormman2012
12:12 AM GMT on August 10, 2012
BEGIN
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invest_al932012.invest
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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 93, 2012, DB, O, 2012081000, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL932012
AL, 93, 2012081000, , BEST, 0, 150N, 170W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Member Since: August 8, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 31
186. Stormman2012
12:10 AM GMT on August 10, 2012
Lol.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al932012.invest
FSTDA
R
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040
010
0000
201208100002
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NOTIFY=ATRP
END
Member Since: August 8, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 31
185. Stormman2012
12:04 AM GMT on August 10, 2012
800 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERNESTO...LOCATED INLAND ABOUT 90 MILES WEST OF COATZACOALCOS
MEXICO...AND ON NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN...LOCATED
ABOUT 1155 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANTS OF FLORENCE LOCATED SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA. CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
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184. Stormman2012
12:02 AM GMT on August 10, 2012

Tropical Storm ERNESTO 7:00 PM CDT Thu Aug 9
Location: 18.2°N 95.8°W
Moving: W at 11 mph
Min pressure: 996 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph
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183. Stormman2012
10:52 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
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182. Stormman2012
10:48 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
Tropical Storm ERNESTO
...ERNESTO MADE LANDFALL AROUND 100 PM CDT NEAR THE CITY OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO WITH 60 MPH WINDS...

4:00 PM CDT Thu Aug 9
Location: 18.1°N 95.2°W
Moving: W at 10 mph
Min pressure: 993 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph
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181. Stormman2012
3:33 PM GMT on August 09, 2012
nice tropical wave coming off of africa!!
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180. Stormman2012
7:44 AM GMT on August 09, 2012
Tropical Storm ERNESTO
...ERNESTO STRENGTHENING AND MOVING MORE QUICKLY WESTWARD OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE
1:00 AM CDT Thu Aug 9
Location: 18.8°N 93.0°W
Moving: W at 16 mph
Min pressure: 993 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph
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179. Stormman2012
7:42 AM GMT on August 09, 2012
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178. ilovehurricanes13
7:25 AM GMT on August 09, 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERNESTO...LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
HAVE CHANGE LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF FLORENCE...IS LOCATED ABOUT
360 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR REDEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT
20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
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177. ilovehurricanes13
5:22 AM GMT on August 09, 2012
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176. Stormman2012
4:43 AM GMT on August 09, 2012
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175. Stormman2012
3:12 AM GMT on August 09, 2012
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174. Stormman2012
2:56 AM GMT on August 09, 2012
ERNESTO FINALLY MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE... RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS STORM GETTING STRONGER...

10:00 PM CDT Wed Aug 8
Location: 18.8°N 91.8°W
Moving: W at 7 mph
Min pressure: 994 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph
Member Since: August 8, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 31
173. Stormman2012
2:54 AM GMT on August 09, 2012
Time: 01:57:30Z DATE august 8 2012
Coordinates: 19.2167N 91.6833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.6 mb (~ 24.88 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,473 meters (~ 4,833 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 998.2 mb (~ 29.48 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 126° at 59 knots (From the SE at ~ 67.8 mph)
Air Temp: 17.0°C* (~ 62.6°F*)
Dew Pt: 17.0°C* (~ 62.6°F*)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 64 knots (~ 73.6 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 56 knots (~ 64.4 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 10 mm/hr (~ 0.39 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
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172. Stormman2012
2:41 AM GMT on August 09, 2012
invest 92L UP TO %50 AT 8PM ON AUGUST 8 2012
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170. ilovehurricanes13
10:12 PM GMT on August 08, 2012
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169. ilovehurricanes13
6:55 PM GMT on August 08, 2012
tropical update!!!! Aug 8, 2012 1:34 pm ET
ERNESTO

- Hurricane Ernesto made landfall -- defined as where the center of circulation crosses the coast -- in Mexico just north of the border with Belize, becoming the first landfalling hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic season. It has since weakened to a tropical storm.

- The center of circulation is close to moving back over the water, this time the Bay of Campeche in the extreme southwest Gulf of Mexico, but it's at best going to barely do so, and will soon move back inland again. Thus its opportunity to restrengthen will be quite limited.

- Regardless of the intensity wind-wise, Ernesto will be accompanied by heavy rain and a threat of flooding the next couple days as it moves west or a bit south of due west.

AFRICA

- A strong tropical wave with a low-level circulation is over Africa and will move off the coast of Africa tomorrow, and stands out as one which has a good chance of developing into a tropical cyclone. Some model runs have shown it reaching the United States the week after next; that's within the realm of possibility but will depend on the steering flow at that time and is far beyond the time frame at which there can be confidence in details of a system's track.

ATLANTIC

- Ahead of that, in the eastern Atlantic, a disturbance organizing in the "monsoon trough" is being monitored for signs of further development as it heads west across the tropical Atlantic.

- Despite being amidst dry air, Florence's remnant has been sprouting a bit of convection, indicating some resiliency. However, it is running into very hostile atmospheric conditions -- strong upper-level winds -- which are not allowing it to become a tropical storm again.

- The upper-level trough associated with those shearing winds, however, resulted in heavy showers and thunderstorms in Puerto Rico early this morning, is now bringing them to Hispaniola, and might do so in Cuba and Jamaica as it drifts west.
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168. Stormman2012
4:26 PM GMT on August 08, 2012
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1500 UTC WED AUG 08 2012

CORRECTED TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO
TULUM...CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A HURRICANE WATCH FROM
BARRA DE NAUTLA TO COATZACOALCOS...AND DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING NORTH OF BARRA DE NAUTALA TO TUXPAN.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE BORDER OF MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARRA DE NAUTLA TO COATZACOALCOS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CELESTUN TO BARRA DE NAUTLA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 90.4W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......140NE 140SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 90.4W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 89.8W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 18.7N 92.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 18.6N 94.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...130NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 18.5N 96.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.4N 97.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 90.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

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167. Stormman2012
4:02 PM GMT on August 08, 2012
i love your Blog
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166. ilovehurricanes13
3:07 PM GMT on August 08, 2012
Quoting ilovehurricanes13:
...ERNESTO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER MEXICO WHILE PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINS
10:00 AM CDT Wed Aug 8
Location: 18.7°N 90.4°W
Moving: W at 15 mph
Min pressure: 995 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph


1000 AM CDT WED AUG 08 2012
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
LOCATION...18.7N 90.4W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM E OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 IN
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 776
165. ilovehurricanes13
3:05 PM GMT on August 08, 2012
...ERNESTO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER MEXICO WHILE PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINS
10:00 AM CDT Wed Aug 8
Location: 18.7°N 90.4°W
Moving: W at 15 mph
Min pressure: 995 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 776
164. ilovehurricanes13
3:03 PM GMT on August 08, 2012
Ernesto is tropical storm again, after making landfall Tuesday night at 11 pm EDT just north of the Belize/Mexico border as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. We have few good weather observations near the landfall location, though an automated weather station on Banco Chinchorro Island just off the coast of Mexico reported a minimum pressure of 979.4 mb.
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163. ilovehurricanes13
2:57 PM GMT on August 08, 2012
WATCHING IVEST 92L 8/8/2012
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162. ilovehurricanes13
2:43 PM GMT on August 08, 2012
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161. ilovehurricanes13
2:36 PM GMT on August 08, 2012
tropical storm ernesto on land at 8am on august 8 2012!!
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160. ilovehurricanes13
2:28 PM GMT on August 08, 2012
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159. ilovehurricanes13
2:05 PM GMT on August 08, 2012
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158. ilovehurricanes13
2:04 PM GMT on August 08, 2012
92L is the one to watch for now. Assuming the trades aren't too strong when it reaches the Caribbean, there's little reason it could not become a hurricane.

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157. ilovehurricanes13
1:58 PM GMT on August 08, 2012
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156. ilovehurricanes13
1:51 PM GMT on August 08, 2012
Quoting 50346074:
Tropical Storm ERNESTO
ERNESTO WEAKENS WHILE MOVING OVER MEXICO...BUT HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE
7:00 AM CDT Wed Aug 8
Location: 18.8°N 89.8°W
Moving: W at 15 mph
Min pressure: 990 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph
''

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
700 AM CDT WED AUG 08 2012

...ERNESTO WEAKENS WHILE MOVING OVER MEXICO...BUT HEAVY RAINS
CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 89.8W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES

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155. 50346074
12:23 PM GMT on August 08, 2012
Tropical Storm ERNESTO
ERNESTO WEAKENS WHILE MOVING OVER MEXICO...BUT HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE
7:00 AM CDT Wed Aug 8
Location: 18.8°N 89.8°W
Moving: W at 15 mph
Min pressure: 990 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph
Member Since: August 7, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 17
154. 50346074
12:20 PM GMT on August 08, 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 8 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
RECENTLY-DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO...LOCATED OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
CAMPECHE.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT
700 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS SLIGHTLY
BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

THE REMNANTS OF FLORENCE...A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES
EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR REDEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

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153. 50346074
5:08 AM GMT on August 08, 2012
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152. 50346074
4:24 AM GMT on August 08, 2012
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151. 50346074
3:36 AM GMT on August 08, 2012
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1000 PM CDT TUE AUG 07 2012

...ERNESTO NEARING THE COAST OF SOUTHERN YUCATAN AS A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE...NEW WATCHES ISSUED FOR MAINLAND MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 87.7W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ENE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM ESE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR MAINLAND
MEXICO FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF BARRA DE
NAUTLA NORTHWARD TO TUXPAN MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* COZUMEL
* COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARRA DE NAUTLA TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
* SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA
* CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO CHILITEPEC ALONG THE GULF COAST
OF MEXICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF BARRA DE NAUTLA TO TUXPAN MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED BY THE BELIZE DOPPLER RADAR TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 18.7
NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.7 WEST..OR OVER NORTHEREN BANCO CHINCHORRO
ISLANDS MEXICO. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24
KM/H...THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A MOTION TOWARD TOWARD THE WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE EYE OF
HURRICANE ERNESTO WILL CROSS THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ERNESTO IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE ERNESTO REACHES
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS
ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE EAST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HONDURAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
BELIZE...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA. THESE
RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON
THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS
IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
EARLIER REPORTS FROM HAM RADIO OPERATORS INDICATE STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF MORE THAN 2 FEET HAS OCCURRED ON AMBERGRIS CAYE ISLAND
BELIZE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

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150. 50346074
7:45 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
new update at 5pm!!
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149. 50346074
6:14 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
hurricane
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148. 50346074
6:02 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
Hurricane ERNESTO Public Advisory
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------



000
WTNT35 KNHC 071753
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ERNESTO SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 07 2012

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT ERNESTO HAS BECOME A
HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 85.5W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS INCLUDED THE ISLAND OF COZUMEL IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AND EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CABO CATOCHE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* COZUMEL
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* NORTH OF TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
* CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO CHILITEPEC ALONG THE GULF COAST
OF MEXICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
A TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER WILL CONTINUE PASSING NORTH OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS TODAY...
AND WILL CROSS THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT.
THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND EMERGE OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE ERNESTO REACHES THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS THROUGH TODAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO
TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER BELIZE...THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA. THESE RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON
THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS
IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.




Member Since: August 7, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 17
147. 50346074
5:30 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
URNT12 KNHC 071716
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052012
A. 07/17:01:10Z
B. 18 deg 27 min N
085 deg 24 min W
C. 850 mb 1288 m
D. 71 kt
E. 047 deg 12 nm
F. 130 deg 83 kt
G. 047 deg 12 nm
H. 984 mb
I. 17 C / 1523 m
J. 22 C / 1521 m
K. 19 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 1005A ERNESTO OB 24
MAX FL WIND 83 KT NE QUAD 16:57:00Z
august 7 2012
Member Since: August 7, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 17
146. 50346074
5:22 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
Member Since: August 7, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 17
145. 50346074
5:16 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
Member Since: August 7, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 17
144. 50346074
4:16 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
????
Member Since: August 7, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 17
143. 50346074
4:01 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
where is tropical storm ernesto going??
Member Since: August 7, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 17
142. ilovehurricanes13
3:47 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
ERNESTO EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT

11:00 AM EDT Tue Aug 7
Location: 18.1°N 85.0°W
Moving: WNW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 989 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 776
141. ilovehurricanes13
12:39 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 776
140. ilovehurricanes13
7:19 AM GMT on August 07, 2012
ERNESTO HEADING TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
2:00 AM EDT Tue Aug 7
Location: 17.3°N 83.3°W
Moving: WNW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 993 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 776
139. ilovehurricanes13
5:58 AM GMT on August 07, 2012
000
ABNT20 KNHC 070555
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERNESTO...LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ISLA
ROATAN HONDURAS.

A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY
ELONGATED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS REDEVELOPED NEAR THE
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW OF FLORENCE...LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES
EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR REDEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF AGAIN BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 776
138. ilovehurricanes13
4:00 AM GMT on August 07, 2012
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 776

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