cooler weather northeast

By: hurricanes2018 , 4:22 PM GMT on August 07, 2014

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cooler weather for the northeast

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2001. hurricanes2018
6:46 PM GMT on August 20, 2014
I am up to 2,000 comments again
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2000. hurricanes2018
6:46 PM GMT on August 20, 2014
I am up to 2,000 comments again
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1997. hurricanes2018
6:27 PM GMT on August 20, 2014
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1996. hurricanes2018
6:26 PM GMT on August 20, 2014


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1995. hurricanes2018
6:13 PM GMT on August 20, 2014
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1994. hurricanes2018
5:53 PM GMT on August 20, 2014
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an elongated area
of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands has become a little better organized during the past few
hours. Additional slow development of this system is possible during
the next day or two, and a tropical depression could form as the
system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Lesser
Antilles and into the Caribbean Sea. After that time, land
interaction could limit development potential over the weekend.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and heavy
rainfall are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto
Rico, and the Virgin Islands on Thursday night and Friday. Interests
in those islands should closely monitor the progress of this system.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate this system tomorrow afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.
invest 96L
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1993. hurricanes2018
5:24 PM GMT on August 20, 2014
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1992. hurricanes2018
5:21 PM GMT on August 20, 2014
where is invest 96L GOING?? we are going to watch this invest 96L AND NEW UPDATE at 2pm.
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1991. hurricanes2018
5:20 PM GMT on August 20, 2014
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1990. hurricanes2018
5:08 PM GMT on August 20, 2014
Quoting 1988. hurricanes2018:

<
not good at all
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1989. hurricanes2018
5:01 PM GMT on August 20, 2014
ropical Cyclogenesis:-
It appears that THE SYSTEM 96L is giving way to a second more dominant COC, LLC located at around 13N, 53W- (ex95L) as best seen on visible satelite imagery. Perhaps a merger of the two centers may occur- resulting in an amplified growth of the entire storm center in thunderstorms and convection resulting in a greater 'cloud stack' thereby taking the system more north of due west than where its currently situated. This evening it will be interesting to observe the continued formation of this system.

Also, Re: the Genoa (twin) Tornadoes in iTALY- QUITE unusual and rare, but it also raises the stakes somewhat for the plausibility of the 'likely unrealistic' scenario presented on the recently released film -INTO THE STORM. Perhaps its not too far-fetched after all. Dr. masters may have taken a bit too much of a swipe at the film's depictions and compositions. Some folks absolutely love it so far...
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1988. hurricanes2018
4:54 PM GMT on August 20, 2014
<
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1987. hurricanes2018
4:39 PM GMT on August 20, 2014
This wave,if it develops, has the potential to go either way IHMO; struggling wave or storm in the Caribbean or better organized one if shear and dry air cooperate before it gets to the Greater Antilles. Then the issue becomes how much land interaction will disrupt the system; then, what happens after the system or remnants clear the Antilles to the North.......................Too many variables at the moment to know what will happen 5 days out so me thinks we have to go in 24 hour chunks to see what happens organization-wise in the short term. Right now, very windy and gusty conditions in the Lesser Antilles on the horizon and some rain relief.
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1986. hurricanes2018
4:24 PM GMT on August 20, 2014
invest 96L NEED TO BE WATCH
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1985. hurricanes2018
4:24 PM GMT on August 20, 2014
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1984. hurricanes2018
4:18 PM GMT on August 20, 2014
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1983. hurricanes2018
4:16 PM GMT on August 20, 2014
NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center
Now that we have entered the heart of the hurricane season, there is an increase in the Internet hype around disturbances that NHC is monitoring. Given the long lead times involved, the wide range of possible outcomes, and the historically poor and erratic performance of guidance models with weak disturbances, there is no reliable science to forecast potential impacts to specific locations that would be more than a week away.

Nearly every disturbance poses some potential to become a dangerous hurricane. Folks in hurricane-prone areas should always be keeping an eye on the tropics and be prepared to respond when a true threat develops, but also remember the limitations in the science. NHC’s forecasts of tropical cyclone formation and track extend out only to 5 days - because the science hasn’t advanced enough to reliably forecast beyond that time frame. (We’re working on internal forecasts out to 7 days, but we’re a ways away from feeling comfortable making them public because the errors can be quite large.)

The bottom line really is: be alert, be prepared, but also be wary of long-range projections that go beyond what the science can offer. And make the NOAA National Hurricane Center www.hurricanes.gov your calm, clear, and trusted source for official forecast and warning information on tropical cyclones.
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1982. hurricanes2018
4:13 PM GMT on August 20, 2014
Starting to see some dominance with the wave further NE. The best chance for this wave is to merge creating a large enough moisture bubble to fend off dry air to the north. Until it has a define LLC its to early to say where it will go.

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1981. hurricanes2018
4:10 PM GMT on August 20, 2014
Nearby Weather Stations nice weather in the northeast today august 20 2014
Beacon Hill/Lake Saltonstall - Branford, Branford
74.4 °F
DopplerDon.com
76.0 °F
Rock Hill
75.8 °F
Foxon
76.3 °F
East Haven Town Beach
69.8 °F
Branford Shoreline
73.5 °F
Yale, Kline Geology Lab
75.5 °F
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1980. hurricanes2018
4:06 PM GMT on August 20, 2014
No mention of the G-IV. Not even hinted for Friday...

NOUS42 KNHC 201546
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT WED 20 AUGUST 2014
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z AUGUST 2014
TCPOD NUMBER.....14-081

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (APPROACHING LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 75
A. 21/1730Z
B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST
C. 21/1515Z
D. 15.0N 57.5W
E. 21/1715Z TO 21/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 76
A. 22/0530Z, 1130Z
B. AFXXX 0204A CYCLONE
C. 22/0415Z
D. 16.5N 61.5W
E. 22/0515Z TO 22/1130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

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1979. hurricanes2018
3:59 PM GMT on August 20, 2014


What a difference 24 hours makes. Mainly in terms of the ebb and flow of weather model cycles which love to play on our meteorological heartstrings. Fortunately we have the here and now to ground us. Monday night, we were watching two ill defined areas of low pressure. Now, we're still watching two ill defined areas of low pressure.

This isn't to downplay the possible development of Invest 96-L, the broad spin of clouds about 1,000 miles (give or take) southeast of Puerto Rico. But with social media posting snapshots of nine-day forecasts and bowling balls of spin rolling into the Gulf of Mexico, it's easy to lose the forest for the trees. In a sense the safest place to be is at the end of a 9-day weather forecast.

So why is this one striking such a chord? Well it's late August. It's the time of year when strong hurricanes can form. Camille and Katrina, two of the strongest hurricanes on record, were both August storms. But it's also the expected westward movement, thanks to a sprawling ridge of high pressure to the north, that will guide 96-L across the Lesser Antilles and into the Caribbean this weekend, that gives us more pause for concern.

One thing we do know: the islands of the eastern Caribbean, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, will be impacted by (at least) heavy rainfall and squally weather by late week into Saturday. The verdict is still out on whether 96-L could organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm before then, but the ocean and atmosphere ahead won't exactly discourage it.

By Friday a dip in the jet stream off the U.S. east coast will begin to pinch off the high pressure steering, at which point 96-L, or whatever comes of it, could begin to feel a little tug northward from a channel carved out by the jet stream. On the other hand, it could continue plodding westward through the central Caribbean and toward the Gulf of Mexico if the channel isn't strong enough or the system stays weak. This fork in the road wouldn't occur until late weekend into early next week, five or more days from now at which point our forecasting ability begins to drop off.

Bottom line: it's far too soon to say what if any impacts 96-L might have on the mainland U.S. Given the general steering pattern and overall favorable conditions ahead it's at least one to watch over the next few days. But first we need to see how and if it organizes tomorrow into Thursday.
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1978. hurricanes2018
3:58 PM GMT on August 20, 2014
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1977. hurricanes2018
3:53 PM GMT on August 20, 2014
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1976. hurricanes2018
3:46 PM GMT on August 20, 2014
Quoting 1975. hurricanes2018:

TROPICS WATCH:


THREAT BREWING: WILL IT IMPACT YOUR AREA?




Looming Atlantic Threat

A disturbance east of the Lesser Antilles bears watching this weekend, and beyond.
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1975. hurricanes2018
3:45 PM GMT on August 20, 2014
TROPICS WATCH:


THREAT BREWING: WILL IT IMPACT YOUR AREA?
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1974. hurricanes2018
3:40 PM GMT on August 20, 2014
KARINA FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE FOR A DAY OR TWO
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1973. hurricanes2018
3:39 PM GMT on August 20, 2014
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED AUG 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 15.8N 136.6W AT 20/1500
UTC AND IS NEAR STATIONARY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER
OVER ALL BUT THE NW QUADRANT. KARINA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY WITH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY.
KARINA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DRIFTING EASTWARD THU. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL IS CENTERED NEAR 19.1N 121.2W AT 20/1500
UTC MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO
55 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM
OF THE CENTER OVER THE S SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA ELSEWHERE FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 118W-
124W. LOWELL REMAINS A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION WITH TROPICAL
STORM WINDS EXTENDING OUT FROM THE CENTER TO 170 NM. ALTIMETER
PASSES AROUND 0400 UTC PROVIDED EXCELLENT SEA HEIGHT DATA FOR
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...INCLUDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE RADIUS
OF 12 FT SEAS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF OF MEXICO IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 16N95W TO 1008 MB LOW NEAR 08N94W MOVING W 10
TO 15 KT OVER PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS A BROAD AREA N OF 9N TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA/MEXICO BETWEEN 88W-102W. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
PERIPHERAL WINDS WILL INCREASE DOWNSTREAM FROM GULF OF PAPAGAYO
TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW THE LOW TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS
IT CONTINUES WESTWARD. THIS LOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

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1972. hurricanes2018
3:38 PM GMT on August 20, 2014
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1971. hurricanes2018
3:31 PM GMT on August 20, 2014


TROPICAL STORM KARINA got a few more days left
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1970. hurricanes2018
3:29 PM GMT on August 20, 2014
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1969. hurricanes2018
3:28 PM GMT on August 20, 2014
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, and on Tropical Storm Lowell, located a little
more than 700 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

A broad area of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms several hundred miles south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for this system to develop into a tropical depression by the end of
the week while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
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1968. hurricanes2018
3:27 PM GMT on August 20, 2014
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122014
800 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

The satellite presentation of Lowell has not changed much during the
past few hours, with curved convective bands to the south and west
of the center but little deep convection in the northern semicircle.
The initial intensity remains 45 kt in agreement with the latest
TAFB Dvorak estimate. Some strengthening is still possible in the
next day or so while the cyclone remains over marginal SSTs and in
an in an environment of low to moderate shear. After that time, the
cyclone will move over progressively cooler waters, which should
result in gradual weakening to a remnant low by day 4. The NHC
forecast is close to the intensity consensus.

The initial motion estimate is 310/04, as Lowell continues moving
slowly northwestward into a break in the subtropical ridge caused by
a mid/upper-level low over southern California. The upper low
is forecast to fill and move eastward after 24 hours, but Lowell
will maintain a northwestward heading at a faster forward speed
through day 3 as the rebuilding mid-level ridge to the north moves
westward. A weakening Lowell will then be steered toward the
west-northwest by an expansive low-level ridge over the north
Pacific. Overall, the track model guidance remains in good agreement
on this scenario. The new NHC track is similar to the previous one
through 72 hours and has been adjusted a little to the left after
that time, trending toward the latest TVCE multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 19.1N 121.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 19.5N 121.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 20.2N 122.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 21.1N 123.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 22.1N 124.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 24.5N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 26.0N 130.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 25/1200Z 27.0N 133.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
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1967. hurricanes2018
3:27 PM GMT on August 20, 2014
Tropical Storm LOWELL
8:00 AM PDT Wed Aug 20 2014
Location: 19.1°N 121.2°W
Moving: NW at 5 mph
Min pressure: 996 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph
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1966. hurricanes2018
3:26 PM GMT on August 20, 2014
TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014
800 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

Karina's cloud pattern has become a little better organized with the
center embedded within the deep convection. Satellite intensity
estimates from both TAFB and SAB are T3.5 on the Dvorak scale at
1200 UTC. Since that time, deep convection has decreased a little,
and the initial intensity is set at 50 kt instead of the 55 kt
supported by the Dvorak numbers.

As long as Karina remains over warm waters and moderate shear, there
will be small fluctuations in intensity. Once the cyclone moves away
from the deep tropics in 3 days or so, it will encounter cooler
waters and it will begin to weaken. The NHC forecast follows the
intensity consensus model, which keeps Karina at 50 kt for at least
3 more days.

As anticipated, Karina has moved very little and most likely will
meander or remain nearly stationary for the next 24 hours. As soon
as Karina begins to feel the influence of Tropical Storm Lowell's
larger circulation in 36 hours or so, it will begin to drift
eastward and then northeastward with an increase in forward speed
around the south and east sides of Lowell. Guidance has not changed
significantly, and the NHC forecast is very similar to the previous
one, and very close to the consensus of the GFS and the ECMWF
models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 15.8N 136.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 15.8N 136.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 15.5N 136.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 15.2N 136.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 15.2N 135.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 17.0N 132.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 20.5N 129.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 26.5N 129.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

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1965. hurricanes2018
3:26 PM GMT on August 20, 2014
Tropical Storm KARINA
8:00 AM PDT Wed Aug 20
Location: 15.8°N 136.6°W
Moving: Stationary
Min pressure: 998 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph
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1964. hurricanes2018
3:25 PM GMT on August 20, 2014
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1963. hurricanes2018
1:26 PM GMT on August 20, 2014
Coco Crisp highlighted a four-run fourth with a go-ahead three-run triple, and the A's never looked back as they ended their five-game skid and stayed a half-game behind the Angels in the AL West. Scott Kazmir was solid for six innings vs. the Mets, while Josh Reddick homered. Athletics 6, Mets 2 F THE METS LOST TO Tuesday, August 19, 2014
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1962. hurricanes2018
1:25 PM GMT on August 20, 2014
Quoting 1960. hurricanes2018:

Having fanned four times, Chris Carter clubbed a tiebreaking three-run homer -- his 30th dinger -- on a 3-0 pitch from David Robertson in the ninth. Brian McCann hit a two-run homer and Martin Prado added a two-run double for the Yankees, who fell four back in the Wild Card race. Astros 7, Yankees 4 F Tuesday, August 19, 2014



Facing All-Star closer Koji Uehara in a tie game in the ninth, Chris Iannetta drilled an RBI double as the Halos maintained a half-game lead over the A's in the AL West. Kole Calhoun robbed a three-run homer and had an RBI single in a three-run third. David Ortiz hit his 29th homer Angels 4, Red Sox 3 THE REDSOX LOST TO
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1961. hurricanes2018
1:20 PM GMT on August 20, 2014
Tropical Storm Lowell


Tropical Storm Lowell


Pressure: 996 mb

Last Updated Aug 20, 2014 0900 GMT
Location 18.7N 121.0W Movement NW
Wind 50 MPH
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1960. hurricanes2018
1:18 PM GMT on August 20, 2014
Having fanned four times, Chris Carter clubbed a tiebreaking three-run homer -- his 30th dinger -- on a 3-0 pitch from David Robertson in the ninth. Brian McCann hit a two-run homer and Martin Prado added a two-run double for the Yankees, who fell four back in the Wild Card race. Astros 7, Yankees 4 F Tuesday, August 19, 2014
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1959. hurricanes2018
1:17 PM GMT on August 20, 2014
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1958. hurricanes2018
1:05 PM GMT on August 20, 2014
Invest 96L


Last Updated Aug 20, 2014 12 GMT
Location 11.2 52.7W Movement W
Wind 30 MPH
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1957. hurricanes2018
1:04 PM GMT on August 20, 2014


INVEST 96L AT 2AM
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1956. hurricanes2018
12:39 PM GMT on August 20, 2014
Invest 92E
Last Updated ‎8‎/‎20‎/‎2014, ‎8‎:‎00‎:‎00‎ ‎AM (Eastern Daylight Time)
Location 8.2 94.0W Movement WNW at 10 mph
Wind 25 MPH
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1955. hurricanes2018
12:34 PM GMT on August 20, 2014
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1954. hurricanes2018
11:59 AM GMT on August 20, 2014
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1953. hurricanes2018
11:56 AM GMT on August 20, 2014
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1952. hurricanes2018
11:54 AM GMT on August 20, 2014
the Yankees lost last night!!!
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1951. hurricanes2018
3:16 AM GMT on August 20, 2014
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, and on Tropical Storm Lowell, located a little
more than 700 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

Satellite data along with ship and buoy observations indicate that
a broad low pressure system has developed several hundred miles
south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Shower and thunderstorm
activity is currently disorganized, but environmental conditions are
expected to be favorable for this system to develop into a tropical
depression by the end of this week while it moves toward the
west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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my name is Jason I love reporting severe weather and hurricanes!! I love taking pictures of the weather to.. I live in new haven,conn I love the snow