Post-Tropical Cyclone BERTHA

By: hurricanes2018 , 3:39 AM GMT on July 01, 2014

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Post-Tropical Cyclone BERTHA
11:00 AM AST Wed Aug 6 2014
Location: 40.2°N 62.7°W
Moving: NE at 31 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph




Episode VII X-wing Revealed (hurricanes2018)
Message from J.J., Episode VII X-wing Revealed
Episode VII X-wing Revealed
INVEST 93L (hurricanes2018)
INVEST 93L AT 9AM ON july 30 2014
INVEST 93L
Tropical Storm Bertha at 9am (hurricanes2018)
Tropical Storm Bertha at 9pm on august 3 2014
Tropical Storm Bertha at 9am
Tropical Storm Bertha (hurricanes2018)
Tropical Storm Bertha was cruising northwest out of the Southeast Bahama Islands at 20 mph on Sunday morning
Tropical Storm Bertha
Tropical Storm BERTHA (hurricanes2018)
Tropical Storm BERTHA
Tropical Storm BERTHA
Tropical Storm Bertha (hurricanes2018)
Tropical Storm Bertha
Tropical Storm Bertha

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2001. hurricanes2018
6:50 PM GMT on August 18, 2014
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 25 Comments: 50213
2000. hurricanes2018
6:49 PM GMT on August 18, 2014
wow up to 2,000 comments now
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1999. hurricanes2018
6:48 PM GMT on August 18, 2014
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1998. hurricanes2018
6:47 PM GMT on August 18, 2014
Quoting 1997. hurricanes2018:

I am still watching that low at 33 west right now!!
maybe invest soon lets hope so.
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1997. hurricanes2018
6:47 PM GMT on August 18, 2014
I am still watching that low at 33 west right now!!
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 25 Comments: 50213
1996. hurricanes2018
6:46 PM GMT on August 18, 2014
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 25 Comments: 50213
1995. hurricanes2018
6:44 PM GMT on August 18, 2014
very warm water on the east coast
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1994. hurricanes2018
6:42 PM GMT on August 18, 2014
Quoting 1991. hurricanes2018:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E will BE A TROPICAL STORM BY NIGHT!
maybe a urricane down the road to the water is very warm
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1993. hurricanes2018
6:41 PM GMT on August 18, 2014
Quoting 1992. hurricanes2018:

area of disturbed weather has weakened and according to the TWO the chances of development is low the next two days. Dr Masters must have written his blog very much earlier or the chances will definitely increase as the wave nears the islands.



It is still a long ways out from the islands. NHC says less favorable for the next few days. It will be a few days before it reaches the islands as it is moving slowly so I am sure there may be a better chance of development then as Dr.Masters said.
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 25 Comments: 50213
1992. hurricanes2018
6:40 PM GMT on August 18, 2014
area of disturbed weather has weakened and according to the TWO the chances of development is low the next two days. Dr Masters must have written his blog very much earlier or the chances will definitely increase as the wave nears the islands.
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 25 Comments: 50213
1991. hurricanes2018
6:37 PM GMT on August 18, 2014
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E will BE A TROPICAL STORM BY NIGHT!
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 25 Comments: 50213
1990. hurricanes2018
6:35 PM GMT on August 18, 2014
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 25 Comments: 50213
1989. hurricanes2018
6:35 PM GMT on August 18, 2014
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122014
800 AM PDT MON AUG 18 2014

The unusually large depression, at least 800 nmi in diameter, has
changed little since the previous advisory. A 1047 UTC SSMI
microwave overpass indicated that the depression has a well-defined
but fully exposed low-level circulation center, with a smaller
secondary circulation located about 120 nmi east of the main center.
Deep convection has been unable to develop and persist near the main
low-level center, possibly due to the aforementioned secondary swirl
and modest east-northeasterly mid- to upper-level shear undercutting
the otherwise favorable outflow pattern. A blend of the TAFB, SAB,
and ADT satellite intensity estimates supports maintaining the
initial intensity at 30 kt.

Recent passive microwave fix data suggest that the depression has
turned toward the west-northwest and is now moving 290/07 kt. The
cyclone is expected to turn northwestward later today as the
depression moves around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer
ridge located over the southwestern U.S. and northwestern Mexico. A
mid-latitude trough/low currently digging south-southeastward along
the U.S. west coast is expected to erode the ridge on Tuesday and
Wednesday, allowing the cyclone to move more northward. However, the
trough is forecast to shift eastward by late Wednesday, which will
allow the ridge to build back in to the north of the cyclone and
forcing it back on a northwesterly track toward colder water through
Days 4 and 5. The new forecast track is similar to the previous
advisory track, and lies in the middle of the NHC guidance envelope
and close to the consensus model TVCE.

The large circulation and associated radius of maximum winds, plus
modest easterly shear, are expected to hinder the intensification
process for the next 72 hours or so despite the favorable outflow
regime. After that, the system is forecast to move over sub-26C and
progressively cooler waters, which should induce slow weakening.
The intensity forecast closely follows the ICON consensus model
through 72 hours, but is a little above ICON after that due to the
large cyclone requiring more time than normal to spin down.

Although the cyclone is forecast to remain well offshore of the
southwestern United States, a northward surge of moisture partly
associated with this system could move into that region by late
Wednesday and Thursday. Please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service office for more details on a possible
heavy rainfall threat.
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 25 Comments: 50213
1988. hurricanes2018
6:35 PM GMT on August 18, 2014
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122014
800 AM PDT MON AUG 18 2014

...LARGE DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM LAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 117.7W
ABOUT 665 MI...1065 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWELVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.7
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH
...13 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BY
TONIGHT...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TONIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 25 Comments: 50213
1987. hurricanes2018
6:34 PM GMT on August 18, 2014
Tropical Depression TWELVE-E
8:00 AM PDT Mon Aug 18 2014
Location: 16.7°N 117.7°W
Moving: WNW at 8 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 25 Comments: 50213
1986. hurricanes2018
6:33 PM GMT on August 18, 2014
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 25 Comments: 50213
1985. hurricanes2018
6:32 PM GMT on August 18, 2014
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1984. hurricanes2018
6:31 PM GMT on August 18, 2014
TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014
800 AM PDT MON AUG 18 2014

The cloud pattern associated with Karina has not changed much during
the past 2 or 3 days, and still consists of an area of deep
convection with the center on the northern edge due to shear. This
was confirmed by an AMSU pass earlier today. Given that the cloud
pattern has not changed, the initial intensity is kept at 40 kt.
Karina has the chance to slightly strengthen since the circulation
is moving over warmer waters and into weaker shear. By the end of
the forecast period, the outflow from larger Tropical Depression
12-E to the northeast should induce stronger shear and prevent
additional strengthening.

Best estimate of the initial motion is 255 degrees at 8 kt. Karina
is trapped south of a strong subtropical ridge, and this pattern
will keep the cyclone moving slowly south of due west or to the west
for the next 2 to 3 days. The confidence in this portion of the
forecast is high with good guidance agreement. After that time,
Karina's motion will be dominated by the larger-than- normal TD
12-E, which is forecast to pass to the northeast. This should result
in a collapse of the steering flow near Karina and very little
motion of the cyclone. By the end of the period Karina should begin
to turn slowly to the northeast steered by the southwesterly flow on
the south side of TD 12-E. This later portion of the forecast is
much less certain due to the large guidance spread. On the other
hand, all dynamical models agree on the turn to the northeast.

Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 25 Comments: 50213
1983. hurricanes2018
6:31 PM GMT on August 18, 2014
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014
800 AM PDT MON AUG 18 2014

...KARINA SHOWS NO CHANGE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 132.4W
ABOUT 1500 MI...2415 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.4 WEST. KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A SLOWER
WEST-SOUTHWEST TO WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 25 Comments: 50213
1982. hurricanes2018
6:30 PM GMT on August 18, 2014
Tropical Storm KARINA
8:00 AM PDT Mon Aug 18 2014
Location: 16.8°N 132.4°W
Moving: WSW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 1002 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 25 Comments: 50213
1981. hurricanes2018
6:29 PM GMT on August 18, 2014
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 25 Comments: 50213
1980. hurricanes2018
6:27 PM GMT on August 18, 2014
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST MON AUG 18 2014



For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

1. A low pressure area about 875 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii is nearly stationary. There are no thunderstorms near the center of this system. Thunderstorms are located along the northeast and east periphery where the circulation is interacting with the circulation of Karina. Infrared and visible imagery show significant easterly shear in the area. Environmental conditions, especially at the lower levels, are not conducive for development during the next couple of days.* Formation chance through 48 hours, low, near 0 percent.

2. A weak low pressure area about 800 miles south of Honolulu, Hawaii, has been moving west slowly. Wind shear at the upper levels of the atmosphere will likely prevent further development of this system over the next two days.* Formation chance through 48 hours, low, near 0 percent.
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 25 Comments: 50213
1979. hurricanes2018
6:21 PM GMT on August 18, 2014
area of disturbed weather has weakened and according to the TWO the chances of development is low the next two days. Dr Masters must have written his blog very much earlier or the chances will definitely increase as the wave nears the islands.
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 25 Comments: 50213
1978. hurricanes2018
6:16 PM GMT on August 18, 2014
Nearby Weather Stations august 18 2014 2pm


Beacon Hill/Lake Saltonstall - Branford, Branford
76.5 °F

DopplerDon.com
76.5 °F

Rock Hill
76.2 °F

Foxon
80.4 °F

East Haven Town Beach
76.1 °F

Branford Shoreline
77.2 °F

Yale, Kline Geology Lab
77.1 °F
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 25 Comments: 50213
1977. hurricanes2018
6:15 PM GMT on August 18, 2014
I am happy the Yankees win last night!!
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 25 Comments: 50213
1976. hurricanes2018
6:14 PM GMT on August 18, 2014


something to watch here I see hurricane next to the northeast
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1975. hurricanes2018
5:45 PM GMT on August 18, 2014
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1974. hurricanes2018
5:42 PM GMT on August 18, 2014
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON AUG 18 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, and on Tropical Depression Twelve-E, located
several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

A tropical wave over Panama and Costa Rica is expected to move
westward and develop into a low pressure area south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec by Thursday. Additional development of this system is
likely later this week while the low moves west-northwestward well
offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 25 Comments: 50213
1973. hurricanes2018
5:38 PM GMT on August 18, 2014
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 25 Comments: 50213
1972. hurricanes2018
5:37 PM GMT on August 18, 2014
Quiet in the tropics
A tropical wave located in the Central Atlantic, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the Lesser Antilles Islands, is headed westwards at about 10 mph. Satellite loops show the wave has a broad, elongated surface circulation that has become less defined since Sunday, and heavy thunderstorm activity is almost entirely lacking due to moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots and dry air. Water vapor satellite images and the Saharan Air Layer analysis show that the wave is surrounded by a very dry airmass. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are marginal for development, about 27°C. The Monday morning run of one of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the UKMET model, did show some weak development of the wave by late in the week, with the wave arriving in the Lesser Antilles on Friday. Given the presence of so much dry air near the disturbance, the risk of development is low. Development odds will rise a little as the wave nears the Lesser Antilles late in the week, when ocean temperatures will be warmer and the atmosphere a little moister. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day development odds of 10% and 30%, respectively.
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1971. hurricanes2018
5:34 PM GMT on August 18, 2014


some dry air!!
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 25 Comments: 50213
1970. hurricanes2018
5:33 PM GMT on August 18, 2014
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1969. hurricanes2018
5:30 PM GMT on August 18, 2014
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop ical.asp
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 25 Comments: 50213
1968. hurricanes2018
5:30 PM GMT on August 18, 2014
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 25 Comments: 50213
1967. hurricanes2018
5:29 PM GMT on August 18, 2014
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 25 Comments: 50213
1966. hurricanes2018
5:28 PM GMT on August 18, 2014
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 25 Comments: 50213
1965. hurricanes2018
5:28 PM GMT on August 18, 2014
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with a weak and elongated area of low
pressure centered about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
remains limited and disorganized. Environmental conditions have
become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation during the next
few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 25 Comments: 50213
1964. hurricanes2018
4:51 PM GMT on August 18, 2014
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 25 Comments: 50213
1963. hurricanes2018
4:51 PM GMT on August 18, 2014
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 25 Comments: 50213
1962. hurricanes2018
4:49 PM GMT on August 18, 2014
good link http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/tro pical.asp
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1961. hurricanes2018
4:29 PM GMT on August 18, 2014
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 25 Comments: 50213
1960. hurricanes2018
4:26 PM GMT on August 18, 2014
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1959. hurricanes2018
4:25 PM GMT on August 18, 2014
ORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 16.7N 117.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 17.1N 118.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 17.7N 119.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 18.3N 120.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 18.9N 120.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 20.4N 121.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 22.8N 122.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 25.5N 125.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 25 Comments: 50213
1958. hurricanes2018
4:24 PM GMT on August 18, 2014
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122014
800 AM PDT MON AUG 18 2014

The unusually large depression, at least 800 nmi in diameter, has
changed little since the previous advisory. A 1047 UTC SSMI
microwave overpass indicated that the depression has a well-defined
but fully exposed low-level circulation center, with a smaller
secondary circulation located about 120 nmi east of the main center.
Deep convection has been unable to develop and persist near the main
low-level center, possibly due to the aforementioned secondary swirl
and modest east-northeasterly mid- to upper-level shear undercutting
the otherwise favorable outflow pattern. A blend of the TAFB, SAB,
and ADT satellite intensity estimates supports maintaining the
initial intensity at 30 kt.

Recent passive microwave fix data suggest that the depression has
turned toward the west-northwest and is now moving 290/07 kt. The
cyclone is expected to turn northwestward later today as the
depression moves around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer
ridge located over the southwestern U.S. and northwestern Mexico. A
mid-latitude trough/low currently digging south-southeastward along
the U.S. west coast is expected to erode the ridge on Tuesday and
Wednesday, allowing the cyclone to move more northward. However, the
trough is forecast to shift eastward by late Wednesday, which will
allow the ridge to build back in to the north of the cyclone and
forcing it back on a northwesterly track toward colder water through
Days 4 and 5. The new forecast track is similar to the previous
advisory track, and lies in the middle of the NHC guidance envelope
and close to the consensus model TVCE.

The large circulation and associated radius of maximum winds, plus
modest easterly shear, are expected to hinder the intensification
process for the next 72 hours or so despite the favorable outflow
regime. After that, the system is forecast to move over sub-26C and
progressively cooler waters, which should induce slow weakening.
The intensity forecast closely follows the ICON consensus model
through 72 hours, but is a little above ICON after that due to the
large cyclone requiring more time than normal to spin down.

Although the cyclone is forecast to remain well offshore of the
southwestern United States, a northward surge of moisture partly
associated with this system could move into that region by late
Wednesday and Thursday. Please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service office for more details on a possible
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 25 Comments: 50213
1957. hurricanes2018
4:23 PM GMT on August 18, 2014
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122014
800 AM PDT MON AUG 18 2014

...LARGE DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM LAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 117.7W
ABOUT 665 MI...1065 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWELVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.7
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH
...13 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BY
TONIGHT...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TONIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 25 Comments: 50213
1956. hurricanes2018
4:22 PM GMT on August 18, 2014
Tropical Depression TWELVE-E
8:00 AM PDT Mon Aug 18
Location: 16.7°N 117.7°W
Moving: WNW at 8 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 25 Comments: 50213
1955. hurricanes2018
4:22 PM GMT on August 18, 2014
TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014
800 AM PDT MON AUG 18 2014

The cloud pattern associated with Karina has not changed much during
the past 2 or 3 days, and still consists of an area of deep
convection with the center on the northern edge due to shear. This
was confirmed by an AMSU pass earlier today. Given that the cloud
pattern has not changed, the initial intensity is kept at 40 kt.
Karina has the chance to slightly strengthen since the circulation
is moving over warmer waters and into weaker shear. By the end of
the forecast period, the outflow from larger Tropical Depression
12-E to the northeast should induce stronger shear and prevent
additional strengthening.

Best estimate of the initial motion is 255 degrees at 8 kt. Karina
is trapped south of a strong subtropical ridge, and this pattern
will keep the cyclone moving slowly south of due west or to the west
for the next 2 to 3 days. The confidence in this portion of the
forecast is high with good guidance agreement. After that time,
Karina's motion will be dominated by the larger-than- normal TD
12-E, which is forecast to pass to the northeast. This should result
in a collapse of the steering flow near Karina and very little
motion of the cyclone. By the end of the period Karina should begin
to turn slowly to the northeast steered by the southwesterly flow on
the south side of TD 12-E. This later portion of the forecast is
much less certain due to the large guidance spread. On the other
hand, all dynamical models agree on the turn to the northeast.
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 25 Comments: 50213
1954. hurricanes2018
4:22 PM GMT on August 18, 2014
Tropical Storm KARINA
8:00 AM PDT Mon Aug 18
Location: 16.8°N 132.4°W
Moving: WSW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 1002 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 25 Comments: 50213
1953. hurricanes2018
4:21 PM GMT on August 18, 2014
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 25 Comments: 50213
1952. hurricanes2018
4:20 PM GMT on August 18, 2014
ROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON AUG 18 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, and on Tropical Depression Twelve-E, located
several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

1. An area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days to the
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Slow development of this system
is possible later this week while the low moves roughly parallel to
the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 25 Comments: 50213
1951. hurricanes2018
4:20 PM GMT on August 18, 2014
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 25 Comments: 50213

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