T.S Humberto

By: hurricanes2018 , 9:09 PM GMT on September 12, 2013

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The Atlantic's first hurricane of 2013 finally arrived this Wednesday morning, as Hurricane Humberto intensified into a minimum-strength Category 1 hurricane in the far Eastern Atlantic. Humberto is listed in NHC's preliminary Best-Track data repository as having achieved hurricane strength at 8 am EDT on September 11, which would tie it with Hurricane Gustav of 2002 for the latest appearance of the season's first hurricane, since 1941. Humberto is also Earth's first tropical cyclone to reach Category 1 strength in three weeks--the last was Typhoon Trami, which hit China on August 21 as a Category 1 storm with 85 mph winds. To go three weeks during late August and early September without a Category 1 or stronger tropical cyclone is a very unusual event. Satellite loops show that Humberto is a small but well-organized hurricane with a prominent eye, located just west of the Cape Verde Islands. Humberto has until Thursday night to continue the intensification process, at which time high wind shear and cooler waters will likely cause weakening. Humberto is not expected to be a threat to any land areas.






Humberto peaks in intensity
Hurricane Humberto is headed northwards over the far Eastern Atlantic, and has likely peaked in strength, with 85 mph winds. Humberto is listed in NHC's preliminary Best-Track data repository as having achieved hurricane strength at 8 am EDT on September 11, which would tie it with Hurricane Gustav of 2002 for latest appearance of the season's first hurricane since 1941. Satellite loops show that Humberto is well-organized hurricane with a distinct eye, but the storm has moved over waters cooler than 26°C, and wind shear has risen to 20 knots, which will likely cause weakening over the next few days. Humberto is not expected to be a threat to any land areas.

Tropical Depression TEN (hurricanes2018)
Tropical Depression TEN
2-3 days over water in the BOC is plenty of time for this to make a run at hurricane status, as long as upwelling doesn't get too involved. The NHC forecast looks very reasonable based off of guidance but they may have under forecast the intensity.
T.D 10
TROPICAL STORM Ingrid (hurricanes2018)
TROPICAL STORM Ingrid

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86. hurricanes2018
8:51 PM GMT on March 12, 2014
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13366
85. hurricanes2018
8:47 PM GMT on March 12, 2014
Something of interest on this map is the bright green anomalies over FL and across the SW Atlantic. This may be the year of many home grown systems.
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13366
84. hurricanes2018
2:23 AM GMT on September 18, 2013
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 PM AST TUE SEP 17 2013

HUMBERTO HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE THIS MORNING...AND IT STILL HAS
SOME CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. THE ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION IS ORGANIZED INTO A BROKEN BAND THAT EXTENDS ABOUT
THREE-QUARTERS OF THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED
IS HELD AT 40 KT...WHICH IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS.

THE STORM IS LOCATED DIRECTLY BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...WHICH HAS
ALLOWED THE SHEAR TO RELAX A LITTLE. THIS UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...
AND HUMBERTO COULD LOSE SOME OF THE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
WHILE THAT OCCURS. REGARDLESS...THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC
ENVIRONMENTS FAVOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS NUDGED UPWARD FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IT LIES ON THE LOW SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE.
HUMBERTO IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 3 TO 4 DAYS...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE THAT SHOWS THE CYCLONE DEGENERATING
INTO A TROUGH BEFORE THAT OCCURS.

HUMBERTO HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT FOR THE PAST FEW
HOURS. A SLOWER NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD MOTION IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD WHEN IT BECOMES EMBEDDDED IN THE
STRONGER FLOW TO THE EAST OF AN APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH. THE
NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 30.3N 42.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 30.9N 43.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 32.0N 43.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 33.3N 43.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 35.0N 42.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 40.7N 37.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13366
83. hurricanes2018
2:22 AM GMT on September 18, 2013
Quoting 82. hurricanes2018:
Tropical Storm HUMBERTO
5:00 PM AST Tue Sep 17
Location: 30.3°N 42.8°W
Moving: N at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph



BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 PM AST TUE SEP 17 2013

...HUMBERTO CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.3N 42.8W
ABOUT 1045 MI...1685 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.8 WEST. HUMBERTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A SLOWER NORTHWARD TO
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13366
82. hurricanes2018
2:21 AM GMT on September 18, 2013
Tropical Storm HUMBERTO
5:00 PM AST Tue Sep 17
Location: 30.3°N 42.8°W
Moving: N at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13366
81. hurricanes2018
12:36 PM GMT on September 17, 2013
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 AM AST TUE SEP 17 2013

HUMBERTO CONTINUES TO GO THROUGH CYCLES OF HAVING DEEP CONVECTION
NEAR ITS CENTER TO BEING SHEARED WITH ALL THE CONVECTION DISPLACED
WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. AS OF RIGHT NOW...CONVECTION
HAS RE-DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER...AND THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THE
SHEAR MAY BE RELAXING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY BASED ON A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 2.5 FROM
TAFB AND EARLIER ASCAT DATA. THE LOWEST PRESSURE MEASURED BY A
DROPSONDE FROM A RECENT NASA GLOBAL HAWK MISSION WAS 1009 MB WITH A
SURFACE WIND OF 15 KT...INDICATING THAT THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS
PROBABLY A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED.

THE WAXING AND WANING OF CONVECTION HAS CAUSED THE SURFACE CENTER TO
JUMP AND MEANDER FOR THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS
THAT HUMBERTO IS NOW MOVING AGAIN...AND A LONGER-TERM AVERAGE
YIELDS AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF 020/4 KT. THE STORM IS LOCATED TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES
AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A HIGH-AMPLITUDE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING
OFF THE EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. THE RESULTANT STEERING FLOW
IS FORECAST TO PUSH HUMBERTO GENERALLY TO THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS OR SO...AND THEN THE CYCLONE WILL ACCELERATE TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST BEGINNING ON DAY 3 AS THE TROUGH GETS CLOSER. THE HWRF
IS THE MAIN OUTLIER IN THE GUIDANCE SUITE...SHOWING A MUCH SLOWER
MOTION AND A TRACK TO THE EAST BY DAY 5. THE REST OF THE TRACK
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA TO DOWNPLAY
THE INFLUENCE OF THE HWRF SOLUTION.

THE CIRCULATIONS OF HUMBERTO AND A NEARBY MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW
ARE BECOMING COLLOCATED...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE VERTICAL SHEAR NEAR
THE CYCLONE TO DECREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREFORE...
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS. HUMBERTO IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY DAY 4...AND EVEN THOUGH THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER
MUCH COLDER WATER BY THAT TIME...BAROCLINIC INFLUENCES COULD ALLOW
STRENGTHENING TO CONTINUE A BIT LONGER. A 5-DAY POSITION IS STILL
SHOWN FOR CONTINUITY...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HUMBERTO COULD BE
ABSORBED BY ANOTHER LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY THAT TIME
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13366
80. hurricanes2018
12:34 PM GMT on September 17, 2013
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 AM AST TUE SEP 17 2013

...HUMBERTO ON THE MOVE AGAIN...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 42.7W
ABOUT 1150 MI...1850 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.7 WEST. HUMBERTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A GENERAL
NORTHWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

BASED ON DATA FROM A NASA GLOBAL HAWK MISSION...THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13366
79. hurricanes2018
12:34 PM GMT on September 17, 2013
Tropical Storm HUMBERTO
5:00 AM AST Tue Sep 17
Location: 27.8°N 42.7°W
Moving: NNE at 5 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13366
78. hurricanes2018
5:53 PM GMT on September 16, 2013
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13366
77. hurricanes2018
5:49 PM GMT on September 16, 2013
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13366
76. hurricanes2018
5:48 PM GMT on September 16, 2013
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
1100 AM AST MON SEP 16 2013

...HUMBERTO BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN...
...FORECAST TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN WHILE TURNING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 43.2W
ABOUT 1200 MI...1930 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.2 WEST. HUMBERTO
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
...TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13366
75. hurricanes2018
5:47 PM GMT on September 16, 2013
its back round two!! Tropical Storm HUMBERTO
11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 16
Location: 27.2°N 43.2°W
Moving: WNW at 8 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13366
74. hurricanes2018
9:49 PM GMT on September 13, 2013
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 PM AST FRI SEP 13 2013

DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO REDEVELOP NEAR HUMBERTO IN
THE FACE OF SOME RATHER STRONG SHEAR. DVORAK CONSTRAINTS SUGGEST
AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF ABOUT 45 KT...THOUGH THIS COULD BE REFINED
A BIT AFTER THE NEXT SCATTEROMETER PASS. AN EXTREMELY LARGE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS CONTINUING TO SHEAR
HUMBERTO. THIS SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO ABATE FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE HUMBERTO DROP TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT SOME POINT DURING THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT THE STORM WILL FIND A MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING...AND MOST OF THE RELIABLE
GUIDANCE SHOWS HUMBERTO AS A HURRICANE AGAIN BY DAY 5. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS AGAIN REDUCED IN THE SHORTER TERM...BUT IS
KEPT THE SAME AT THE END.

THE MOTION HAS SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER TO THE LEFT...NOW 290/10.
THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WHILE A STRONG RIDGE STEERS THE STORM BASICALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
THERE CONTINUE TO BE LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES AS TO HOW FAST HUMBERTO
RECURVES OUT TO SEA...WITH THE GFS/GEFS SUGGESTING A MUCH FASTER
TRACK THAN MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE IS
TRENDING A LITTLE TO THE SOUTHWEST...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SHIFTED IN THAT WAY...FAIRLY CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13366
73. hurricanes2018
9:46 PM GMT on September 13, 2013
object width="420" height="315">
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13366
72. hurricanes2018
8:45 PM GMT on September 13, 2013
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 PM AST FRI SEP 13 2013

...HUMBERTO WEAKENING QUICKLY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 32.1W
ABOUT 815 MI...1310 KM NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.1 WEST. HUMBERTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 MILES...315 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13366
71. hurricanes2018
8:44 PM GMT on September 13, 2013
Tropical Storm HUMBERTO
5:00 PM AST Fri Sep 13
Location: 25.0°N 32.1°W
Moving: WNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 996 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13366
70. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
4:04 PM GMT on September 13, 2013
hurricanes2018 has created a new entry.
69. hurricanes2018
3:59 PM GMT on September 13, 2013


TROPICAL STORM INGRID AT NOON TIME
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13366
68. hurricanes2018
3:25 PM GMT on September 13, 2013
TROPICAL STORM INGRID
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13366
67. hurricanes2018
3:24 PM GMT on September 13, 2013
UPDATE ON TROPICAL STORM INGRID
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13366
66. hurricanes2018
3:23 PM GMT on September 13, 2013
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13366
65. hurricanes2018
3:18 PM GMT on September 13, 2013
Quoting 64. hurricanes2018:
Tropical Storm INGRID
10:00 AM CDT Fri Sep 13
Location: 19.4°N 95.3°W
Moving: W at 2 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph


WTNT35 KNHC 131459
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
1000 AM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013

...THE NINTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 95.3W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
NORTHWARD TO CABO ROJO AND HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COATZACOALCOS TO CABO ROJO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
DEPRESSION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS STRENGTHEND AND IS NOW
TROPICAL STORM INGRID...THE NINTH NAMED CYCLONE OF THE SEASON. AT
1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST. INGRID IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST SHOULD
BEGIN LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...INGRID WILL
BE MOVING VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF
RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13366
64. hurricanes2018
3:18 PM GMT on September 13, 2013
Tropical Storm INGRID
10:00 AM CDT Fri Sep 13
Location: 19.4°N 95.3°W
Moving: W at 2 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13366
63. hurricanes2018
3:17 PM GMT on September 13, 2013
TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
1000 AM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN
SIZE...BUT IT HAS NOT CHANGED VERY MUCH IN ORGANIZATION. A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE...HOWEVER...REPORTED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 45
KNOTS WHEN IT DEPARTED THE CYCLONE...ALONG WITH BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR
WINDS OF 42 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO
40 KNOTS...AND A NAME HAS BEEN ASSIGNED TO THE SYSTEM. THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS QUITE LOW...AND THERE IS A WELL-ESTABLISHED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. ASSUMING THAT THE SHEAR DECREASES DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS OR SO...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING.
ALTHOUGH THE NHC 48-HOUR FORECAST CALLS FOR 55 KT...INGRID COULD BE
A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THAT AT LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
A LITTLE BIT ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

AS ANTICIPATED...THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD OR MOVING
ERRATICALLY. AS SOON AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
TEXAS...AND WHICH HAS THE CYCLONE TRAPPED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...
SHIFTS EASTWARD...INGRID WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD VERY NEAR THE COAST OF
MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE HWRF MOVES
THE CYCLONE INLAND IN ABOUT A DAY WHILE THE ECMWF FORECASTS A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK...KEEPING THE CYCLONE OVER WATER LONGER.
EVENTUALLY...ALL MODELS TURN THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO
AND BRING THE CYCLONE INLAND BETWEN 2 AND 3 DAYS.

IT MUST BE EMPHASIZED THAT THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL PRODUCE
TORRENTIAL RAINS. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS CYCLONE IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN
MEXICO.

Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13366
62. hurricanes2018
3:09 PM GMT on September 13, 2013

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13366
61. hurricanes2018
3:03 PM GMT on September 13, 2013
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13366
60. hurricanes2018
3:00 PM GMT on September 13, 2013

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 13 2013

VERTICAL SHEAR IS TAKING ITS TOLL ON HUMBERTO. ALL OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED AWAY FROM THE CIRCULATION...LEAVING AN
EXPOSED CENTER WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE MESOVORTICES. THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED IS LOWERED TO 55 KT...BASICALLY AS FAST AS THE DVORAK
CONSTRAINTS ALLOW. FURTHER WEAKENING SEEMS PROBABLE FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR SO DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND MARGINAL SSTS.
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH WHILE HUMBERTO MOVES OVER WARMER WATERS...WHICH COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME RESTRENGTHENING. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
STORM WILL UNDERGO A TROUGH INTERACTION IN THE LONG RANGE...LEAVING
IT IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME EVEN STRONGER. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWERED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING
THE FIRST 36 HOURS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND THE RATHER STRONG
SHEAR FORECAST. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE NHC FORECAST IS A
LITTLE HIGHER...BUT IS STILL BELOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/9. A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OF HUMBERTO IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC. THE STORM SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD BY DAYS 4-5
WHILE IT RECURVES AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS HOW FAST THE STORM
ACCELERATES INTO THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN...WHICH DEPENDS ON
WHAT PARTICULAR SHORTWAVE AMPLIFIES THE NEXT MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
THE NEW NHC PREDICTION WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...NEAR
THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE AND A BIT FASTER THAN THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS.
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13366
59. hurricanes2018
2:59 PM GMT on September 13, 2013
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13366
58. hurricanes2018
2:54 PM GMT on September 13, 2013
Quoting 57. hurricanes2018:
Tropical Storm HUMBERTO
11:00 AM AST Fri Sep 13
Location: 24.7°N 31.3°W
Moving: WNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 991 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph



BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 13 2013

...HUMBERTO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 31.3W
ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.3 WEST. HUMBERTO
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13366
57. hurricanes2018
2:53 PM GMT on September 13, 2013
Tropical Storm HUMBERTO
11:00 AM AST Fri Sep 13
Location: 24.7°N 31.3°W
Moving: WNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 991 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13366
56. hurricanes2018
2:07 PM GMT on September 13, 2013
19.667N 95.233W 959.4 mb
(~ 28.33 inHg) 376 meters
(~ 1,234 feet) 1001.7 mb
(~ 29.58 inHg) - From 84� at 45 knots
(From the E at ~ 51.7 mph) 21.5�C*
(~ 70.7�F*) 21.4�C*
(~ 70.5�F*) 45 knots
(~ 51.7 mph)


tropical storm
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13366
55. hurricanes2018
1:36 PM GMT on September 13, 2013
Hurricane Humberto
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13366
54. hurricanes2018
1:32 PM GMT on September 13, 2013
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13366
53. hurricanes2018
1:26 PM GMT on September 13, 2013
DID ANYONE WATCH THE YANKEES GAME LAST NIGHT!
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13366
52. hurricanes2018
1:25 PM GMT on September 13, 2013
Danny Valencia hit a tying shot in the eighth, but Jim Johnson had an error and a wild pitch in the ninth, allowing Brendan Ryan to score the winner. The Yanks stayed one back in the Wild Card race; the O's fell 2 1/2 back. The game was delayed more than an hour by rain
Yankees 6, Orioles 5 F Thursday, September 12, 2013

Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13366
51. hurricanes2018
1:19 PM GMT on September 13, 2013
new blog!!
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13366
50. hurricanes2018
1:17 PM GMT on September 13, 2013


hurricane Humberto
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13366
49. hurricanes2018
1:04 PM GMT on September 13, 2013
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13366
48. GatorWX
12:59 PM GMT on September 13, 2013
I'm from NY, but still side with Tampa Bay. Been here too long I guess.
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2683
47. GatorWX
12:58 PM GMT on September 13, 2013
Good Sport!
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2683
46. hurricanes2018
12:57 PM GMT on September 13, 2013
Quoting 43. GatorWX:
How bout dem Cowboys?? ......oh! NM ;)
the ccowboys win!! good team!
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13366
45. hurricanes2018
12:55 PM GMT on September 13, 2013
HURRICANE HUMBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 AM AST FRI SEP 13 2013

...HUMBERTO LOSING STRENGTH...
...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 30.2W
ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.2 WEST. HUMBERTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME RATE OF FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND HUMBERTO WILL LIKELY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13366
44. hurricanes2018
12:55 PM GMT on September 13, 2013
Hurricane HUMBERTO
5:00 AM AST Fri Sep 13
Location: 24.4°N 30.2°W
Moving: NNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 984 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13366
43. GatorWX
12:54 PM GMT on September 13, 2013
How bout dem Cowboys?? ......oh! NM ;)
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2683
42. hurricanes2018
12:53 PM GMT on September 13, 2013
HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 AM AST FRI SEP 13 2013

HUMBERTO IS ON A WEAKENING TREND...AND IT IS BARELY HANGING ON TO
HURRICANE STATUS. LATEST GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
THAT THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS LOSING ORGANIZATION...AND
MICROWAVE IMAGES REVEAL THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR
THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CLOUDINESS. THIS ASYMMETRIC CLOUD
PATTERN IS DUE TO 20-25 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 65 KT...IN ACCORDANCE WITH AN
AVERAGE OF THE LATEST DVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND
UW-CIMSS ADT...AND THIS ESTIMATE COULD BE GENEROUS.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE LEFT AS THE
STEERING FLOW IS BECOMING MORE DOMINATED BY A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO
ITS NORTH-NORTHWEST. THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/10.
A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WHILE HUMBERTO MOVES ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE. A TURN BACK TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST
TO OCCUR IN 4 TO 5 DAYS WHEN HUMBERTO MOVES INTO A PRONOUNCED
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CAUSED BY AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE
HUMBERTO REMAINS OVER 25-26C WATERS AND MOVES INTO EVEN STRONGER
SHEAR AND A DRIER AIRMASS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO LESSEN WHILE HUMBERTO MOVES OVER WARMER WATER. THESE MORE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO RE-INTENSIFY. IN
ADDITION...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW HUMBERTO DEEPENING IN 3
TO 5 DAYS WHEN IT INTERACTS WITH A COUPLE OF UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS.
THE NHC WIND SPEED PREDICTION FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS
AND IS NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13366
41. hurricanes2018
12:52 PM GMT on September 13, 2013
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13366
40. hurricanes2018
12:51 PM GMT on September 13, 2013
Quoting 39. hurricanes2018:
Tropical Depression TEN
7:00 AM CDT Fri Sep 13
Location: 19.5°N 95.0°W
Moving: WSW at 3 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph


BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
700 AM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013

...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 95.0W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COATZACOALCOS TO BARRA DE NAUTLA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.



DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H.
A SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING THE DEPRESSION.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF
RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS
AROUND 25 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13366
39. hurricanes2018
12:50 PM GMT on September 13, 2013
Tropical Depression TEN
7:00 AM CDT Fri Sep 13
Location: 19.5°N 95.0°W
Moving: WSW at 3 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13366
38. Camille33
5:44 AM GMT on September 13, 2013
Quoting 37. hurricanes2018:
bad football team

I think we will go 5 - 11 !! Jets will go 5 - 11
Member Since: July 2, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1362
37. hurricanes2018
5:38 AM GMT on September 13, 2013
Quoting 35. Camille33:

What do you think about the Jets going forward????
bad football team
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13366
36. Camille33
5:37 AM GMT on September 13, 2013
Quoting 35. Camille33:

What do you think about the Jets going forward????

!! I want to see more
Member Since: July 2, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1362

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