tropical storm NORBERT

By: hurricanes2018 , 12:16 AM GMT on September 02, 2014

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WATCHING tropical storm NORBERT

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2001. hurricanes2018
12:43 PM GMT on September 06, 2014
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORBERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014
500 AM PDT SAT SEP 06 2014

...NORBERT MOVING PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 113.8W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM W OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 220 MI...360 KM SSE OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANTA FE TO PUNTA EUGENIA
* SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.8 WEST. NORBERT IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF NORBERT WILL
MOVE PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NORBERT IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT
WHEN THE CENTER OF NORBERT REACHES COOLER WATERS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING
NORTHWARD WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH SUNDAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH NORBERT AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY. LARGE SWELLS
AFFECTING THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND
RIP CURRENTS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 114 Comments: 106966
2000. hurricanes2018
12:42 PM GMT on September 06, 2014
Hurricane NORBERT
5:00 AM PDT Sat Sep 6
Location: 24.8°N 113.8°W
Moving: NW at 8 mph
Min pressure: 957 mb
Max sustained: 120 mph
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 114 Comments: 106966
1999. hurricanes2018
12:41 PM GMT on September 06, 2014
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 114 Comments: 106966
1998. hurricanes2018
10:42 AM GMT on September 06, 2014



Norbert continued to rapidly intensify through about 06Z. Since
then, the hurricane appears to have peaked in intensity, with the
eye becoming less distinct and the cold cloud tops in the eyewall
becoming asymmetric.
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 114 Comments: 106966
1997. hurricanes2018
10:41 AM GMT on September 06, 2014
HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 06 2014

Norbert continued to rapidly intensify through about 06Z. Since
then, the hurricane appears to have peaked in intensity, with the
eye becoming less distinct and the cold cloud tops in the eyewall
becoming asymmetric. Satellite intensity estimates at 06Z were 115
kt from TAFB and 102 kt from SAB, while the CIMMS ADT estimates
peaked at 110 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is
increased to 105 kt as a compromise between these estimates and the
decay of the cloud pattern since 06Z.

The initial motion is now 315/7. The track forecast reasoning
remains unchanged, as Norbert will be steered around the western
periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the southern United
States through 48 hours. After that time, the ridge weakens as a
mid-latitude trough moves into the U.S. West Coast, which should
result in a weakening of the steering currents. The track guidance
has come into better agreement that Norbert should move
northeastward or eastward after 72 hours, with several of the models
showing the remnants making landfall over the northern portion of
the Baja California peninsula. The new forecast track reflects this
change in the guidance by showing an northeastward and eastward
drift after 72 hours. The new forecast track is a little to the
right of the center of the guidance envelope through 48 hours, and
after that it is slower than the consensus model TVCE.

The forecast track takes Norbert over steadily decreasing sea
surface temperatures. The cyclone should thus weaken through the
forecast period. Despite the higher initial intensity compared to
6 hours ago, the guidance is in good agreement that Norbert should
decay into a remnant low in about 3 days. The new intensity
forecast is increased from that of the previous forecast through 36
hours, and then is similar to the previous forecast. The new
forecast is in best agreement with the LGEM model.

Moisture from the remnants of Dolly and the Pacific ITCZ is being
advected northward by the outer circulation of Norbert across
northern Mexico and into the southwestern United States. This could
result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these
areas during the next few days. Please see information from your
local weather office for more details.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 24.6N 113.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 25.2N 114.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 26.0N 115.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 26.9N 116.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 27.8N 117.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 114 Comments: 106966
1996. hurricanes2018
10:34 AM GMT on September 06, 2014
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORBERT ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 06 2014

...NORBERT MOVING AWAY FROM CABO SAN LAZARO...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
THROUGH SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 113.4W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM W OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SSE OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO TO
LORETO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SOUTH OF SANTA FE ON THE WEST COAST AND SOUTH
OF SAN EVARISTO ON THE EAST COAST.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANTA FE TO PUNTA EUGENIA
* SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.4 WEST. NORBERT IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A GENERAL
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF NORBERT WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NORBERT IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE CENTER OF NORBERT MOVES OVER COLDER
WATER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING
NORTHWARD WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH SUNDAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH NORBERT AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY. LARGE SWELLS
AFFECTING THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND
RIP CURRENTS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 114 Comments: 106966
1995. hurricanes2018
10:33 AM GMT on September 06, 2014
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORBERT ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 06 2014

...NORBERT MOVING AWAY FROM CABO SAN LAZARO...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
THROUGH SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 113.4W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM W OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SSE OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO TO
LORETO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SOUTH OF SANTA FE ON THE WEST COAST AND SOUTH
OF SAN EVARISTO ON THE EAST COAST.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANTA FE TO PUNTA EUGENIA
* SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.4 WEST. NORBERT IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A GENERAL
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF NORBERT WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NORBERT IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE CENTER OF NORBERT MOVES OVER COLDER
WATER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING
NORTHWARD WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH SUNDAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH NORBERT AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY. LARGE SWELLS
AFFECTING THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND
RIP CURRENTS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 114 Comments: 106966
1994. hurricanes2018
10:33 AM GMT on September 06, 2014
Hurricane NORBERT
2:00 AM PDT Sat Sep 6
Location: 24.6°N 113.4°W
Moving: NW at 8 mph
Min pressure: 957 mb
Max sustained: 120 mph
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 114 Comments: 106966
1993. hurricanes2018
7:15 AM GMT on September 06, 2014
Tropical wave 90L
A tropical wave (90L) is bringing strong winds and heavy rain showers to the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa on Friday as the wave moves west at about 15 mph. Satellite images show 90L has plenty of spin, but little heavy thunderstorm activity. Conditions are marginal for development, with moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, marginal Sea Surface Temperatures of 27°C (81°F), and dry air to the north. One of our three reliable computer models for predicting tropical storm formation (the GFS) shows development of 90L over the next five days. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system 2-day and 5-day odd of development odds of 20% and 30%, respectively. The long-range Friday morning runs of the GFS and European ensemble models favored the storm taking a more west-northwesterly track into the open ocean next week, with a low threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands. The Atlantic is expected to be dominated by dry, sinking air next week, due to the phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, so I expect that 90L will struggle to develop. The 2 am EDT Friday run of the SHIPS model showed 90L encountering increasingly dry air over the next five days in the face of moderate wind shear--conditions hostile for development.
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 114 Comments: 106966
1992. hurricanes2018
7:07 AM GMT on September 06, 2014
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 114 Comments: 106966
1991. hurricanes2018
7:06 AM GMT on September 06, 2014
ULLETIN
HURRICANE NORBERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014
1100 PM PDT FRI SEP 05 2014

...NORBERT BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
THROUGH SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 113.1W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANTA FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LA PAZ TO SAN EVARISTO
* WEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS TO SOUTH OF SANTA FE
* NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUNTA EUGENIA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.1 WEST. NORBERT IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF NORBERT WILL
MOVE PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES NORBERT A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND NORBERT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
STORM BY LATE SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. THE MEXICAN AUTOMATED STATION AT PUERTO CORTES
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 MPH...62 KM/H...AND A WIND
GUST OF 52 MPH...84 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...ANY DEVIATION OF THE CENTER OF NORBERT TO THE RIGHT OF THE
FORECAST TRACK WILL BRING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO A PORTION OF THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHWARD WITHIN THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 10 INCHES THROUGH SATURDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH NORBERT AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SATURDAY. LARGE
SWELLS AFFECTING THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND
RIP CURRENTS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 114 Comments: 106966
1990. hurricanes2018
7:06 AM GMT on September 06, 2014
Hurricane NORBERT
11:00 PM PDT Fri Sep 5
Location: 24.4°N 113.1°W
Moving: NW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 960 mb
Max sustained: 115 mph
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 114 Comments: 106966
1989. hurricanes2018
7:05 AM GMT on September 06, 2014
ROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A weak area of low pressure located near the coast of Georgia is
producing disorganized cloudiness and showers mainly over the
Atlantic coastal waters. Any development of this low is expected to
be slow to occur during the next few days while it drifts
northeastward close to the coast of the southeast United States.
After that time, strong upper-level winds are expected to limit the
chances of development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

2. An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
southwest of the Cape Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Significant development of
this system is not expected due to an unfavorable dry airmass over
the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

3. A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by
late Sunday. Environmental conditions could support slow development
of this system early next week while it moves toward the west or
west-northwest over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 114 Comments: 106966
1988. hurricanes2018
3:42 AM GMT on September 06, 2014
Severe threat advances to New England

Sep .5, 2014 10:46 pm ET
Northeast | Severe threat advances to New England

- A stormy Saturday is on tap as a cold front triggers scattered showers and thunderstorms over much of the region.
- Thunderstorms could turn severe, with damaging winds from Saturday afternoon through the evening from New England to the Mid-Atlantic region.
- Rather hot and steamy ahead of the front with highs upper 80s to low 90s from southern New England to the Washington, DC area.
- Cooler upper 60s and 70s from western New York to northern New England.
- Sunday will be mainly dry as a much cooler high pressure system overtakes the entire region.
- Sunday highs will be in the 70s to near 80.
- High pressure keeps most areas dry into early next week, but weak low pressure may bring rain to coastal areas Monday and Tuesday.
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 114 Comments: 106966
1987. hurricanes2018
3:41 AM GMT on September 06, 2014
new update at 2pm on this hurricane
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 114 Comments: 106966
1986. hurricanes2018
3:39 AM GMT on September 06, 2014
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 114 Comments: 106966
1985. hurricanes2018
3:39 AM GMT on September 06, 2014
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 114 Comments: 106966
1984. hurricanes2018
3:38 AM GMT on September 06, 2014
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 114 Comments: 106966
1983. hurricanes2018
3:37 AM GMT on September 06, 2014
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 114 Comments: 106966
1982. hurricanes2018
3:37 AM GMT on September 06, 2014
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 114 Comments: 106966
1981. hurricanes2018
3:37 AM GMT on September 06, 2014
Desert Southwest Flood Threat


Norbert's contribution to the elevated Desert Southwest flash flood threat.

Background Model Rainfall Forecast
Model Rainfall Forecast
INTERACTIVE RADAR
Norbert's moisture, in tandem with remnant moisture from ex-Tropical Storm Dolly and the residual moisture already in place will combine to enhance rainfall potential in the Desert Southwest into early next week.

(MORE: Pacific's Historical U.S. Threat)

High pressure aloft over the Southern Plains will provide the steering wheel for this deep tropical moisture intrusion.

This has the potential to evolve into a serious flash flood threat in parts of the Desert Southwest, including parts of Arizona, New Mexico, extreme West Texas, southeast California, southern Nevada and perhaps even southwest Colorado.

(FORECASTS: Phoenix | Albuquerque)

Some of this moisture may also trigger scattered thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall in parts of the L.A. Basin and San Diego metro area early next week, though that forecast remains rather uncertain at this time.
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 114 Comments: 106966
1980. hurricanes2018
3:36 AM GMT on September 06, 2014
Baja California Threat

Hurricane Norbert is currently in an area of above average water temperatures and low wind shear -- different wind speeds and/or directions at different altitudes. Therefore, Norbert is expected to maintain its intensity through Friday night. Norbert is then expected to move into cooler water temperatures and more stable air, which should cause some weakening this weekend.

Norbert's center is unlikely to make landfall, but it is expected to creep very slowly to northwest over the next couple of days, passing close enough to parts of Mexico's Baja Peninsula to produce some high surf, rip currents, gusty winds and locally heavy rain.

For this reason, a hurricane warning is in effect for the southern Baja Peninsula, though it is north of Cabo San Lucas. With that said, Cabo San Lucas is still under a tropical storm warning. Tropical storm watches were extended farther north, but still only include parts of Baja California Sur, the southern of the two Mexican states on the peninsula.

Sustained winds had reached 61 mph at Cabo San Lucas as of 3 a.m. MDT Friday, along with occasional heavy rain. Tropical storm-force winds (39 mph or greater) are possible in the warning area through Friday evening. At this time, the center of Norbert is expected to make its closest pass to the Baja Peninsula through Friday night.

Bands of heavy rain, local flash flooding, high surf and rip currents will also be threats in the southern half of the Baja peninsula.

Hurricane Norbert dumped heavy rains and prompted evacuations Friday reports the Associated Press, though it was unlikely to make a direct his on land. Rainfall forecasts call for as much as 3 to 6 inches of rain over the southern portions of the Baja Peninsula. Some areas, especially in higher terrain, may receive as much as 10 inches of rain by Saturday.

Baja California Sur state Gov. Marcos Covarrubias urged people in vulnerable areas to evacuate and said travelers should stay off highways as the storm roars past. He said most government services would be closed or restricted, and schools in Los Cabos and La Paz were closed on Friday.

Conditions should improve in Cabo San Lucas this weekend, though some high surf, rip currents, and occasional leftover showers are possible there.
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1979. hurricanes2018
3:32 AM GMT on September 06, 2014
Hurricane Norbert: Hurricane's Eye Passing Cabo San Lazaro; Flooding Possible in Southwest
Published: Sep 5, 2014, 7:59 PM EDT

Hurricane Norbert is bringing wind and rain to Cabo San Lucas north into Cabo San Lazaro in Baja California, where a tropical storm alerts remain in effect. In fact, a hurricane warning is in effect for the western coast of the Baja Peninsula from Santa Fe to Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico. Tropical storm warnings then extend farther north along the peninsula as well as south of the warning area.

Hurricane Norbert, the ninth hurricane of a busy eastern Pacific hurricane season, will eventually have some peripheral impacts in parts of the Southwest U.S.
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1978. hurricanes2018
3:32 AM GMT on September 06, 2014
Hurricane Norbert Lashes Baja California
Norbert's peripheral impacts will also spread into Southern California and the Desert Southwest.
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1977. hurricanes2018
3:30 AM GMT on September 06, 2014
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1976. hurricanes2018
3:27 AM GMT on September 06, 2014
dvanced Dvorak Technique (v8.1.4) using
NHC forecasts Storm History

===== ADT-Version 8.1.4 =====
----Intensity--- -Tno Values-- ---Tno/CI Rules--- -Temperature-
Time MSLP/Vmax Fnl Adj Ini Cnstrnt Wkng Rpd Cntr Mean Scene EstRMW MW Storm Location Fix
2014SEP06 023000 4.2 979.4 69.8 4.2 5.7 5.9 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF -44.46 -72.62 EYE -99 IR 5.7 24.11 112.77 SPRL GOES15 37.6
2014SEP06 020000 4.0 982.8 65.0 3.9 4.2 6.3 0.5T/hour ON OFF -19.13 -72.50 EYE/P -99 IR 5.7 24.07 112.81 SPRL GOES15 37.5
2014SEP06 013000 4.1 981.1 67.4 3.8 4.2 5.9 0.5T/hour ON OFF -41.26 -72.53 EYE -99 IR 5.7 24.03 112.74 SPRL GOES15 37.5
2014SEP06 010000 4.1 981.1 67.4 3.7 3.8 3.8 NO LIMIT ON OFF -53.56 -72.12 EMBC N/A 5.7 23.99 112.68 SPRL GOES15 37.6
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1975. hurricanes2018
3:27 AM GMT on September 06, 2014
A. 14E (NORBERT)

B. 06/0000Z

C. 24.0N

D. 112.6W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/GMI

H. REMARKS...NORBERT HAS DEVELOPED RAPIDLY EVEN IN PAST 6 HOURS WITH
WELL DEFINED EYE APPEARING IN PAST 1-2 HOURS. MG EYE WITH SURROUNDING AND
RING TEMP OF W GIVES DT=6.0. MET=5.5 BASED ON 24 HOUR RAPID DEVELOPMENT
TREND. PT AGREES. FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS (6 HOUR CHANGE OF 1.0).

I. ADDL POSITIONS

05/1944Z 23.8N 112.2W GM
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1974. hurricanes2018
3:26 AM GMT on September 06, 2014
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1973. hurricanes2018
3:25 AM GMT on September 06, 2014
goodnight everyone!!
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1972. hurricanes2018
3:21 AM GMT on September 06, 2014


i see a eye to this hurricane
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1971. hurricanes2018
3:20 AM GMT on September 06, 2014
Dvorak Fixes Storm History ATCF History

DATE TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION ID NAME
20140906 0000 24.0 112.6 T5.5/5.5 14E NORBERT
20140905 1800 23.3 112.1 T4.5/4.5 14E NORBERT
20140905 1200 22.9 111.7 T4.5/4.5 14E NORBERT
20140905 0600 22.0 111.2 T4.5/4.5 14E NORBERT
Microwave Fixes Storm History ATCF History

DATE TIME BASIN LAT LON SENSOR ID NAME
20140905 1944 E-PAC 23.8 112.2 GMI 14E NORBERT
20140905 1545 E-PAC 23.4 112.0 SSMIS 14E NORBERT
20140905 0824 E-PAC 22.4 111.3 TMI 14E NORBERT
20140905 0112 E-PAC 21.9 110.9 SSMIS 14E NORBERT
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1970. hurricanes2018
3:18 AM GMT on September 06, 2014
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1969. hurricanes2018
3:18 AM GMT on September 06, 2014
Low pressure area over southern Georgia being monitored
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1968. hurricanes2018
3:14 AM GMT on September 06, 2014
.J Watt, Brian Cushing AND 2014 1st overall draft pick, Jadeveon Clowney?? Gotta give it a go esp. vs an early season RGIII (my QB1 last season & QB2 this year), evidently confused by his "new' role as a throw first, pocket-passer. Should be LOTS of time for any one of that daunting trio of pass-rushers to get after Griffin in the backfield and at very least, chase him out of the pocket (a place that he historically hates to hang around in much anyway) on one broken play after another. Furthermore, while I may be wrong, I don't see RGIII accomplishing a whole lot on "read-options" as pretty much every defense with the resources to commit to doing so (eg. see above trio) are accounting for this when playing the Redskins. The only thing that concerns me At ALL is the Texan's lack of an elite QB which might keep the D on the field a bit longer than you'd prefer. However, I don't see Washington putting up too many points in this game regardless of the conditions & circumstances.

Had Houston not been afraid to sell another new "Carr" to it's fan base, they may well have been a serious contender this season!

Texans D is as close to a slam-dunk play this Sunday as I can humbly prognosticate.
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 114 Comments: 106966
1967. hurricanes2018
3:11 AM GMT on September 06, 2014


Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots
It appears Gronk was right after all when he said he'd be playing on Sunday. His snaps will likely be limited, but some Gronk is better than no Gronk. If Gronk is on your roster he needs to be in your starting lineup for Week 1.
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1966. hurricanes2018
3:07 AM GMT on September 06, 2014
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1965. hurricanes2018
3:02 AM GMT on September 06, 2014
James Shields allowed three hits over 8 1/3 dominant innings, and Wade Davis finished off the Yanks as the Royals moved 1 1/2 games ahead of the Tigers in the AL Central. Nori Aoki plated the lone unearned run on a single off Michael Pineda, who took the tough-luck loss Royals 1, Yankees 0 F Friday, September 5, 2014
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1964. hurricanes2018
2:58 AM GMT on September 06, 2014


WOW
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1963. hurricanes2018
2:51 AM GMT on September 06, 2014
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 114 Comments: 106966
1962. hurricanes2018
2:48 AM GMT on September 06, 2014
HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 05 2014

The satellite presentation of Norbert has improved dramatically
since the last advisory. A ragged eye is apparent in infrared
imagery surrounded by a ring of cloud tops colder than -70C. Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB at 00Z were T5.5/102 kt, and the initial
intensity is set a bit below that value at 95 kt for this advisory
given the very rapid change in the satellite appearance and the
earlier recon data. This recent intensification occurred as Norbert
moved over waters warmer than 29C, and some additional strengthening
is still possible in the next few hours. However, SSTs steadily
decrease along the track going forward, which should result in
gradual weakening beginning by 12 hours. Steadier weakening is
expected beyond 24 hours as SSTs fall below 26C and the cyclone
moves into a drier and more stable airmass. By 72 hours Norbert is
expected to become post-tropical and then weaken to a remnant low
around day 4. The new NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted
upward by 10-15 kt through 24 hours to account for the current
intensity trend, and is about 5 kt higher than the previous advisory
after that time. This forecast is a little above the intensity
consensus through 36 hours and close to the consensus afterward.

Smoothing through some short-term wobbles, the initial motion
estimate is 320/08. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged,
as Norbert will be steered around the western periphery of a mid-
level ridge centered over the southern United States through 48
hours. After that time, the ridge weakens as a mid-latitude trough
moves into the U.S. West Coast. This should result in a weakening of
the steering currents, leaving the low-level center of Norbert to
drift slowly northward or move erratically at the end of the
forecast period. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the
previous one, but has been adjusted a little to the east to account
for the initial position and motion. This track is close to the
TVCE multi-model consensus through 72 hours, and shows little net
motion after that time.

Moisture from the remnants of Dolly and the Pacific ITCZ is being
advected northward by the outer circulation of Norbert across
northern Mexico and into the southwestern United States. This could
result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these
areas during the next few days. Please see information from your
local weather office for more details.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 24.2N 112.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 24.9N 113.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 25.6N 114.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 26.5N 116.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 27.3N 117.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
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1961. hurricanes2018
2:47 AM GMT on September 06, 2014
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORBERT ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 05 2014

...NORBERT EVEN STRONGER...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
THROUGH SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 112.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSE OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM CABO SAN LUCAS TO LA PAZ.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANTA FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LA PAZ TO SAN EVARISTO
* WEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS TO SOUTH OF SANTA FE
* NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUNTA EUGENIA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.8 WEST. NORBERT IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF NORBERT WILL
MOVE PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SATURDAY
AND NORBERT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BY LATE
SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...ANY DEVIATION OF THE CENTER OF NORBERT TO THE RIGHT OF THE
FORECAST TRACK WILL BRING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO A PORTION OF THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHWARD WITHIN THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 10 INCHES THROUGH SATURDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH NORBERT AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SATURDAY. LARGE
SWELLS AFFECTING THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND
RIP CURRENTS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 114 Comments: 106966
1960. hurricanes2018
2:46 AM GMT on September 06, 2014
Hurricane NORBERT
8:00 PM PDT Fri Sep 5
Location: 24.2°N 112.8°W
Moving: NW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 961 mb
Max sustained: 110 mph
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 114 Comments: 106966
1959. hurricanes2018
2:38 AM GMT on September 06, 2014


HURRICANE NORBERT
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1958. hurricanes2018
2:32 AM GMT on September 06, 2014
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1957. hurricanes2018
2:29 AM GMT on September 06, 2014
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1956. hurricanes2018
2:28 AM GMT on September 06, 2014
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1955. hurricanes2018
2:28 AM GMT on September 06, 2014
About this product:

Note: The time of the tropical cyclone's center location at the bottom of the graphic will be 3 hours earlier than the time of the current advisory. The forecast cycle for each advisory begins 3 hours prior to the issuance of the advisory products.

These graphics show probabilities of sustained (1-minute average) surface wind speeds equal to or exceeding 34 kt...39 mph (tropical storm force). These wind speed probability graphics are based on the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, and on NHC forecast error statistics for those forecast variables during recent years. Each graphic provides cumulative probabilities that wind speeds of at least 39 mph will occur during cumulative time periods at each specific point on the map. The cumulative periods begin at the start of the forecast period and extend through the entire 5-day forecast period at cumulative 12-hour intervals (i.e., 0-12 h, 0-24 h, 0-36 h, ... , 0-120 h). An individual graphic is produced for each cumulative interval, and the capability to zoom and animate through the periods is provided. To assess the overall risk of experiencing winds of at least 39 mph at any location, the 120-h graphics are recommended.

These probabilities will be updated by the NHC with each advisory package for all active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins. While separate graphics are focused on each individual tropical cyclone, probabilities resulting from more than one active tropical cyclone may be seen on each graphic.
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1954. hurricanes2018
2:27 AM GMT on September 06, 2014
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 114 Comments: 106966
1953. hurricanes2018
2:27 AM GMT on September 06, 2014
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORBERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014
500 PM PDT FRI SEP 05 2014

...NORBERT A LITTLE STRONGER...
...EYE PASSING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LAZARO...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 112.6W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM WNW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANTA FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN EVARISTO TO SOUTH OF SANTA FE
* NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUNTA EUGENIA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.6 WEST. NORBERT IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEARLY PARALLEL TO AND JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...155 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY
SATURDAY...WITH FASTER WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER THAT TIME.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. A WEATHER STATION OPERATED BY THE MEXICAN NAVY
LOCATED AT PUERTO CORTES RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 53
MPH...86 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 67 MPH...108 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 963 MB...28.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...ANY DEVIATION OF THE CENTER OF NORBERT TO THE RIGHT OF THE
FORECAST TRACK WILL BRING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO A PORTION OF THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHWARD WITHIN THE
TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WARNING AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 10 INCHES THROUGH SATURDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH NORBERT AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SATURDAY. LARGE
SWELLS AFFECTING THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND
RIP CURRENTS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 114 Comments: 106966
1952. hurricanes2018
2:26 AM GMT on September 06, 2014
Hurricane NORBERT
5:00 PM PDT Fri Sep 5
Location: 24.0°N 112.6°W
Moving: NW at 8 mph
Min pressure: 963 mb
Max sustained: 100 mp
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 114 Comments: 106966
1951. hurricanes2018
2:26 AM GMT on September 06, 2014
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI SEP 5 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Norbert, located a short distance southwest of Baja California Sur.

An area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles
south or southwest of the southern coast of Mexico by early next
week. Environmental conditions in this region should be conducive
for gradual development through the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 114 Comments: 106966

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