Tropical Storm GIL/90E 60%

By: hurricanes2018 , 10:51 PM GMT on March 12, 2013

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Invest 99E ON 18z GFS (hurricanes2018)
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Tropical Storm GIL and invest 90E (hurricanes2018)
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Violent Storms, Tornadoes Strike

Several tornadoes moved through the Oklahoma City and St. Louis areas Friday night, leaving 9 dead and significant damage. Widespread flooding was also reported due to the long-lasting "training" nature of the thunderstorms.
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Best of the bunch

Gregg Rosenthal explains why Andrew Luck's subtle brilliance makes him the NFL's best young QB
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College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings

Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.

Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.

SVR T-STORM WARNING CARIBOU ME - KCAR 600 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING TULSA OK - KTSA 500 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO - KEAX 500 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 458 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING SPRINGFIELD MO - KSGF 458 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING LINCOLN IL - KILX 458 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING WICHITA KS - KICT 446 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING ST LOUIS MO - KLSX 446 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING CARIBOU ME - KCAR 546 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 446 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 444 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO - KEAX 440 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING LOUISVILLE KY - KLMK 439 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING CLEVELAND OH - KCLE 536 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2013
FLASH FLOOD WARNING LINCOLN IL - KILX 434 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING SPRINGFIELD MO - KSGF 434 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013
FLASH FLOOD WARNING KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO - KEAX 433 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

TORNADO WARNING WICHITA KS - KICT 430 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0904
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0105 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL ME

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 311805Z - 311900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A MARGINAL
SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS
PARTS OF NRN AND CENTRAL MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS
IS IN PLACE AND AMPLE HEATING HAS LEAD TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION
/SBCAPE 500-1000 J PER KG/. HOWEVER...ONLY LOOSELY ORGANIZED STORM
CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20-35 KT
OVERSPREADING THE REGION. FAST STORM MOTION COULD LEAD TO SOME
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5
DEG C COULD ALLOW FOR SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN STRONGER
UPDRAFTS. WITHOUT STRONGER DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT AND GIVEN WEAK
INSTABILITY/SHEAR...UPDRAFT STRENGTH/SUSTENANCE WILL BE LIMITED.
THEREFORE...A WW IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED.

..LEITMAN/HART.. 05/31/2013


ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

LAT...LON 47096769 45926751 45286837 44846961 44967023 45677038
46317023 46976987 47566928 47476834 47096769
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wow!
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EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1125 AM EDT FRI MAY 31 2013

VALID 12Z MON JUN 03 2013 - 12Z FRI JUN 07 2013


...MULTI-DAY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA...


THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE INDICATING A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES THIS PERIOD. TWO
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WESTERLIES, AND A MOIST,
ENERGETIC TROPICAL REGIME IS PREDICTED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THERE WERE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC MODELS FROM BOTH THE 00Z/31 AND 06Z/31
CYCLES TO PRECLUDE RELIANCE ON THE DETAILS OF ANY PARTICULAR
SOLUTION. THE 00Z/31 ECENS MEAN WAS CHOSEN AS A MASS FIELD GUIDE,
AS IT STILL ADDRESSED THE VARIOUS SENSIBLE WEATHER THREATS, BUT
DID NOT COMMIT WHOLESALE TO EXACT LOW TRACKS, MOISTURE PLUMES, ET
CETERA.

THE FIRST SYSTEM IN THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES IS EXPECTED TO
CLEAR THE EAST COAST BY EARLY DAY 4, PAINTING A STRIPE OF RAINFALL
FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE SECOND
SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND ONTO THE
PLAINS BY MID PERIOD, THEN SHEAR INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY DAY 7.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SHOULD SOAK MUCH OF THE NATION'S MIDSECTION
THROUGHOUT THE EVOLUTION OF THIS WAVE, WITH A SHIFT IN FORCING
FROM MID LEVELS TO LOW-LEVEL OVERRUNNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS DAY 6.

FOR FLORIDA, WHETHER OR NOT AN ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE
MATERIALIZES OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO--AS PER THE 00Z/31
GFS, ECMWF, AND GEM GLOBAL--IT APPEARS THAT THE
HIGH-PRECIPITABLE-WATER AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN
FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO BE REINFORCED FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK, WITH THE THREAT OF PROTRACTED HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM EVEN MODEST SHORTWAVE WIGGLES SPINNING OFF THE
PARENT CIRCULATION SOMEWHERE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
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Don't accept anything over 120hrs out on a model....anything after that will change about 95% of the time.. it's for fun
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hot weather!!
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!!!
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Models were also showing an area of low pressure develop in the Eastern/Central Atlantic and possibly become something tropical.The SSD WEBSITE IS HIGHLIGHTING A CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT OUT THERE.
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Remains of Hurricane Barbara bringing heavy rains to Mexico
Hurricane Barbara died on Thursday as it attempted to cross Mexico's Isthmus of Tehuantepec into the southernmost Gulf of Mexico. While there is no low level circulation apparent on satellite loops this Friday morning, there is a bit of spin at middle levels of the atmosphere, and the remains of Barbara are kicking up some heavy thunderstorm activity over the southernmost Gulf of Mexico and adjacent land areas of Mexico. Wind shear is a high 20 knots in the region, and the area of disturbed weather is quite small, so I don't expect any development to occur over the next few days. Wind shear is predicted to remain high over the Gulf of Mexico for the next six days, and none of the reliable computers models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic during that period. Late next week, wind shear is predicted to drop, and there is a better chance for tropical cyclone development in the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean. Both the GFS and ECMWF models suggest that a strong tropical disturbance with heavy rains may affect Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Western Cuba, and the Southwest Florida by Friday next week.
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Severe Weather Threat Continues for Plains and Midwest

This week's severe weather threat continues for areas of the Southern Plains through the southern Great Lakes as a slow moving weather pattern remains overhead. Areas near northern and northeastern Oklahoma through southwestern Missouri are at moderate risk of severe storms with large hail, damaging winds, heavy rain, and tornadoes, while surrounding regions experience a slight risk of similar severe weather activity.
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WOW!!
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Severe Weather Threat Continues for Plains and Midwest

This week's severe weather threat continues for areas of the Southern Plains through the southern Great Lakes as a slow moving weather pattern remains overhead. Areas near northern and northeastern Oklahoma through southwestern Missouri are at moderate risk of severe storms with large hail, damaging winds, heavy rain, and tornadoes, while surrounding regions experience a slight risk of similar severe weather activity.
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
803 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN DENT COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...
SOUTHWESTERN PHELPS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
SOUTHEASTERN PULASKI COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 830 PM CDT

* AT 800 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORT LEONARD WOOD...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL
OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS.
EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ANUTT...BEULAH...EDGAR SPRINGS...LECOMA...LENOX AND SOUTHERN FORT
LEONARD WOOD.
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...BARBARA DISSIPATES... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
2:00 PM PDT Thu May 30
Location: 18.5°N 94.5°W
Moving: NNW at 3 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 25 mph
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 154 Comments: 129601
Tornado Warning remains in effect until 230 PM CDT for Pawnee and
central Osage counties...

At 202 PM CDT... a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Pawnee... moving east at 25 mph.

Some locations in or near the path of this storm include... Pawnee...
Skedee and Blackburn.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

If you are near the path of this storm... take cover now! If no
underground shelter is available move to an interior room on the
lowest floor. Mobile homes and vehicles should be abandoned for more
substantial shelter. Avoid windows!


Lat... Lon 3636 9696 3646 9696 3653 9658 3624 9653
3625 9693 3633 9693 3633 9703
time... Mot... loc 1904z 259deg 21kt 3635 9685

Statement as of 2:01 PM CDT on May 30, 2013



The National Weather Service in Little Rock has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
southwestern Scott County in western Arkansas...
northwestern Polk County in western Arkansas...

* until 230 PM CDT

* at 154 PM CDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado. This severe
storm was located 5 miles south of Mountain Fork... or 11 miles west
of Mena. Doppler radar showed this severe storm moving northeast at
30 mph.

* Locations in the path of this dangerous storm include...
Queen Wilhelmina State Park... Mountain Fork...
Morgan Springs... Lake Wilhelmina... Lake Hinkle...
Beauchamp... Black Fork Mountain wilderness...
rocky... rich mtn... Eagleton...
Cauthron... Black Fork... Bates...
Cedar mtn... Round Mountain... West Valley...
weehunt mtn... self mtn...

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Take cover now. Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building. Avoid windows. If in a Mobile home... a vehicle or
outdoors... move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.


Lat... Lon 3464 9446 3477 9447 3478 9446 3496 9437
3496 9433 3479 9404 3450 9443 3453 9447
3464 9447
time... Mot... loc 1902z 219deg 26kt 3461 9439


/62


... A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 215 PM CDT for central
Logan County...

at 155 PM CDT... National Weather Service meteorologists continued to
detect a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado. This
dangerous storm was located near Cedar Valley... moving northeast at
25 to 30 mph.

In addition to a tornado... large damaging hail up to Golf Ball size
is expected with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Guthrie... Cimarron City... Cedar Valley... Navina and Seward.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Take cover now in a storm shelter or an interior room of a sturdy
building. Stay away from doors and windows.

Do not stop under bridges or Highway overpasses. They will not
protect you from a tornado.

Lat... Lon 3603 9735 3599 9736 3599 9734 3579 9723
3578 9724 3577 9762 3588 9767 3605 9736
time... Mot... loc 1855z 245deg 28kt 3585 9758
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on new map Barb's vort is rejoining monsoon trof monsoon trof show a few vorts lining from Colombia to BOC
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
500 PM PDT WED MAY 29 2013

...BARBARA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING STILL THE MAIN THREATS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 93.9W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM N OF TONALA MEXICO
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM W OF TUXTLA GUTIERREZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM
SALINA CRUZ TO BARRA DE TONALA TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE
HURRICANE WARNING FROM PUERTO ANGEL TO SALINA CRUZ HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM...
* SALINA CRUZ TO BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN MEXICO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WAS
LOCATED INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 93.9 WEST. BARBARA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...AND INTO THE
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS A REMNANT LOW LATER ON
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAPID WEAKENING WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY...AND BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY
OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER. AN AUTOMATED MEXICAN NAVY OBSERVING STATION AT
PAREDON IN CHIAPAS MEASURED A PEAK GUST TO 75 MPH...120 KM/H
SEVERAL HOURS AGO.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER EASTERN OAXACA AND WESTERN CHIAPAS MEXICO...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEASTERN
OAXACA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE AFFECTING THE COAST WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

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...BARBARA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING STILL THE MAIN THREATS...
5:00 PM PDT Wed May 29
Location: 16.7°N 93.9°W
Moving: NNE at 9 mph
Min pressure: 993 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 154 Comments: 129601
INTERESTING GFDL MODEL SHOWING REGENERATION.



0600 WED MAY 29 14.6N 95.9W 30 (999) 52 (45)
1200 WED MAY 29 15.0N 95.2W 29 (990) 70 (61)
1800 WED MAY 29 15.7N 94.6W 29 (991) 69 (60)
0000 THU MAY 30 16.9N 94.4W 29 (992) 67 (58)
0600 THU MAY 30 17.9N 93.9W 29 (995) 40 (35)
1200 THU MAY 30 18.5N 93.7W 29 (997) 44 (38)
1800 THU MAY 30 19.0N 94.0W 29 (998) 48 (42)
0000 FRI MAY 31 19.2N 94.2W 29 (998) 47 (41)
0600 FRI MAY 31 19.1N 94.7W 30 (999) 46 (40)
1200 FRI MAY 31 19.3N 94.8W 29 (995) 61 (53)
1800 FRI MAY 31 19.4N 95.0W 29 (996) 51 (44)
0000 SAT JUN 01 19.7N 95.1W 29 (995) 52 (45)
0600 SAT JUN 01 20.1N 95.4W 29 (995) 55 (48)
1200 SAT JUN 01 20.8N 95.4W 29 (996) 46 (40)
1800 SAT JUN 01 21.7N 95.4W 29 (997) 46 (40)
0000 SUN JUN 02 22.8N 95.4W 29 (996) 45 (39)
0600 SUN JUN 02 23.8N 95.5W 29 (998) 51 (44)
1200 SUN JUN 02 24.7N 95.0W 29 (995) 63 (55)
1800 SUN JUN 02 25.9N 94.7W 30 (999) 46 (40)
0000 MON JUN 03 26.8N 94.4W 30 (1000) 37 (32)
0600 MON JUN 03 27.6N 94.1W 30 (1002) 33 (29)
1200 MON JUN 03 28.6N 93.3W 30 (1002) 36 (31)
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TROPICAL STORM BARBARA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
800 AM PDT WED MAY 29 2013

...BARBARA APPROACHING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 94.6W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO ANGEL TO BARRA DE TONALA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARRA DE TONALA TO BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN MEXICO.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.6 WEST. BARBARA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND A
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AT A DECREASING FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TODAY FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BARBARA WILL CROSS THE COAST IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY...AND MOVE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BARBARA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
RAPID WEAKENING IS LIKELY AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST...AND
BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER EASTERN OAXACA AND WESTERN CHIAPAS MEXICO...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEASTERN
OAXACA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THIS MORNING...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 3 TO 5 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
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BARBARA APPROACHING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC COAST OF MEXICO

8:00 AM PDT Wed May 29
Location: 15.7°N 94.6°W
Moving: NE at 13 mph
Min pressure: 995 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 154 Comments: 129601
Some of us are still being blown whichever way the wind blows when it comes to the models. The potential is still there. The biggest difference in the GFS is that it's trying to split the energy of the monsoon circulation between the Bay of Campeche and the Western Caribbean. Thus, it's not consolidating any area of low pressure. This scenario is quite possible and it could be that all of the moisture in that area is only used as unorganized thunderstorms. Those of us who have been saying that development in the Western Caribbean was possible also said that it was just as possible that nothing developed, so again, we have not been guaranteeing some "ghost storm" like a few are implying. The potential is still there over the next week and a half. If nothing of substance comes together by then, it will probably be time to start looking somewhere else for development.
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...BARBARA NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...

5:00 AM PDT Wed May 29
Location: 15.2°N 95.0°W
Moving: NE at 8 mph
Min pressure: 995 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph
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North Atlantic on masy 31 2013 at 8am
There is no tropical storm activity for this region.
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TROPICAL STORM BARBARA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
800 PM PDT TUE MAY 28 2013

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH BARBARA EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO EARLY WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 95.7W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSW OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA TO BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN MEXICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.7 WEST. BARBARA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. AN
ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BARBARA
SHOULD REACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TONIGHT
AND ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE CENTER OF BARBARA REACHES THE COAST.
WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER LANDFALL...AND BARBARA SHOULD DISSIPATE
OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO BY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN OAXACA MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEASTERN OAXACA.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 154 Comments: 129601
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH BARBARA EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO EARLY WEDNESDAY
8:00 PM PDT Tue May 28
Location: 14.5°N 95.7°W
Moving: NNE at 3 mph
Min pressure: 1001 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 154 Comments: 129601
Slight to Moderate Severe Weather Risk for Central U.S. and Northeast

After a night severe storms, chances of severe weather continue for the Plains and Northeast on Wednesday. Much of central Kansas into south-central Nebraska are at moderate risk of severe storms with hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes, while areas surrounding this region from southwestern Texas through parts of South Dakota and Minnesota are at slight risk of similar severe weather activity. Meanwhile, damaging wind gusts may develop in parts of the Northeast.
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 154 Comments: 129601
432
WFUS53 KDTX 290113
TORDTX
MIC049-290215-
/O.NEW.KDTX.TO.W.0004.130529T0113Z-130529T0215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
913 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN GENESEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...

* UNTIL 1015 PM EDT

* AT 909 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A LARGE
AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BYRON...AND MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. MOBILE HOMES WILL
BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES...BUSINESSES
AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION POSSIBLE.
FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. EXPECT
TREES TO BE UPROOTED OR SNAPPED.
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 154 Comments: 129601
EP, 91, 2013052900, , BEST, 0, 114N, 1142W, 30, 1007, DB
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 154 Comments: 129601
Not going to bother blogging or making forecasts for TS Barbara. Not going to live much longer. However, I'm predicting max of 50 mph winds.
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 154 Comments: 129601
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 154 Comments: 129601
convection increasing over Barbara
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 154 Comments: 129601
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
500 PM PDT TUE MAY 28 2013

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM BARBARA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 96.0W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SSW OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA TO BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN MEXICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E HAS
STRENGTHENED TO TROPICAL STORM BARBARA.

AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.0 WEST. BARBARA
HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT IT SHOULD
BEGIN A SLOW NORTHWARD TO NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD MOTION SOON. A
SLIGHTLY FASTER NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...BRINGING THE CYCLONE TO THE SOUTHEASTERN PACIFIC
COAST OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE
BARBARA REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN OAXACA MEXICO WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES IN SOUTHEASTERN OAXACA.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 154 Comments: 129601

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