Tropical Storm GIL/90E 60%

By: hurricanes2018 , 10:51 PM GMT on March 12, 2013

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Invest 99E ON 18z GFS (hurricanes2018)
The 18z GFS was much more realistic with Invest 99E than its predecessor, which made the system a Category 2 hurricane. We have a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 here
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Tropical Storm GIL and invest 90E (hurricanes2018)
WATCHING BOTH STORMS! ON JULY 30 2013
Tropical Storm GIL and invest 90E

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Deadly Rip Currents Prompt Beach Closures in Gulf Shores

Eight people have died in Gulf Shores rip currents over the past week, according to the National Weather Service. An Alabama city closed all of its beaches Monday after four men drowned in dangerous rip currents in the Gulf of Mexico in a two-day period.
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
833 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN CHARLES COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND...
SOUTHEASTERN PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...
NORTHWESTERN CALVERT COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND...

* UNTIL 900 PM EDT

* AT 832 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS NEAR ST. CHARLES...OR NEAR WALDORF...AND WAS MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WALDORF...
DUNKIRK...
MARLTON...
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Vick: Kelly OK with comments on naming starter
Michael Vick incited a frenzy when he expressed frustration with the Philadelphia Eagles' QB competition. He clarified his comments Saturday, but what was coach Chip Kelly's reaction
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Hot off the press:

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Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #4
TROPICAL STORM DANTE (YAGI)
11:00 AM PhST June 9 2013
==============================

"Dante" has slightly increased its strength while maintaining its North Northeast direction

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Dante [YAGI] (994 hPa) located at 20.2N 131.6E or 890 km east of Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts up to 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 9 knots.

Additional Information
=======================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 5-15 mm per hour (moderate to heavy) within the 350 km diameter of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm "DANTE" is far off to directly affect any part of the country. However, it will continue to enhance the southwest windflow that will bring rains and thunderstorms over the western sections of southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 pm today.
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Ex-92L lower circulation is still progressing and approaching an environment of less shear. It will be interesting to see if its able to fire some convection in the next day or two. All likelyhood it will probably fizzle out but at least its something to watch for now. Western Atlantic shortwave loop. You can zoom in to get a better look.Link
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I win 30,000 dollars
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POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013
1100 PM EDT FRI JUN 07 2013

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION IS SOMEWHAT
ELONGATED FROM NORTH-NORTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND THIS IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE CYCLONE BEING EMBEDDED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE.
HOWEVER OUR BEST CENTER LOCATION ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THE
FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED TO NEAR 30 KT. NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL
ACCELERATION IS LIKELY AND THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD TURN
EASTWARD IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES IN A DAY OR TWO. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ALSO
CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...WHICH REMAIN IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT.

ALTHOUGH THE AVAILABLE WIND OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE COAST HAVE
DROPPED BELOW GALE FORCE...STRONGER WINDS ARE LIKELY STILL
OCCURRING FARTHER OFFSHORE. GIVEN THE 30-KT FORWARD MOTION...
THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS PROBABLY STILL CLOSE TO 40 KT.
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE BECOMING ABSORBED OR MERGING WITH
ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITHIN 72
HOURS.

THE THREAT FOR HIGH WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND LOCALIZED COASTAL
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY ACROSS NEW JERSEY AND NEW ENGLAND.
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
COMMUNICATED THROUGH LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING
PRODUCTS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 38.5N 75.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 08/1200Z 41.7N 70.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 09/0000Z 45.4N 63.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 09/1200Z 46.8N 55.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 10/0000Z 47.0N 47.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 11/0000Z...ABSORBED
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POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDREA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013
800 PM EDT FRI JUN 07 2013

...POST-TROPICAL ANDREA MOVING RAPIDLY NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.5N 76.0W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NNE OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SW OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...55 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT

GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEAR PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST
FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...AS
WELL AS COASTAL RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. A
HIGH WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...INCLUDING OTHER INLAND WATCHES AND
WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE AT WEATHER.GOV.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
ANDREA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST.
ANDREA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST AND EAST SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANDREA WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
NEAR THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY...AND ACROSS ATLANTIC
CANADA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...MAINLY OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. A WEATHERFLOW STATION IN THE AVON
SOUND...RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 40 MPH...64
KM/H...AND A WIND GUST TO 49 MPH...79 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES FROM CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD INTO COASTAL MAINE.

STORM SURGE...LOCALIZED COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA TO NEW ENGLAND. FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN
VIRGINIA WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS NEAR
GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA TO
ATLANTIC CANADA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

TORNADOES...A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...AND SOUTHEASTERN MARYLAND.
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POST-TROPICAL ANDREA MOVING RAPIDLY NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST

8:00 PM EDT Fri Jun 7
Location: 37.5°N 76.0°W
Moving: NE at 35 mph
Min pressure: 996 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph
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Tropical Storm Andrea Tracking Northeast

Tropical Storm Andrea will move up the Eastern seaboard Friday and Saturday, dumping several inches of rain on the area. It is losing its tropical characteristics, could still pose a problem.
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Looks like Andrea is making the transition to a post-tropical storm. There may be some slight strengthening later on due to baroclinical processes, but that won't happen atm. Heavy rain and tornadoes remain the main threats with the wind threat dying down for now. Anyone on the east coast needs to keep on paying attention to Andrea.
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heavy rain for the northeast
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wind shear is high next to invest 92L
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013
500 AM EDT FRI JUN 07 2013

...ANDREA RACING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.4N 80.7W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NE OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND
GEORGIA SOUTHWARD

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST. ANDREA HAS
INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
NEAR 28 MPH...44 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANDREA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH
SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO RAINBANDS PRIMARILY OVER WATER
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES FROM CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO COASTAL MAINE. ADDITIONAL RAIN
TOTALS OF UP TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING WHICH COULD
BRING STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THOSE AREAS.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE
NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS.
THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE
PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...1 TO 2 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SURGE-
RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND
THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TORNADOES...A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL SECTIONS FROM
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH VIRGINIA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
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Invest 92L in the Central Atlantic headed towards the Lesser Antilles
Satellite images show that a large and unusually well-organized tropical wave for so early in the season has developed in the Central Atlantic, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. The wave has a modest degree of spin and heavy thunderstorms. NHC designated this system 92L Thursday afternoon. High wind shear of 20 - 25 knots is ripping up the thunderstorms in 92L as they form, though, and wind shear is predicted to increase to 30 - 40 knots Thursday night through Monday, making development unlikely. The wave will likely bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands beginning on Sunday night.
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013
200 AM EDT FRI JUN 07 2013

...ANDREA MOVING NORTHEASTWARD A LITTLE FASTER...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.3N 81.7W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SSW OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 19 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.



DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.7 WEST. ANDREA HAS
INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
NEAR 19 MPH...31 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANDREA WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS MORNING AND THEN MOVE NEAR THE
EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO RAINBANDS PRIMARILY OVER WATER
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220
KM...MAINLY OVER WATER TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES OVER EASTERN GEORGIA...EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS AROUND 8
INCHES POSSIBLE. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD FROM EASTERN VIRGINIA TO
EASTERN MAINE. ADDITIONAL RAIN TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
IN OUTER BANDS OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA
KEYS.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE
NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS.
THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE
PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

FLAGLER BEACH NORTH TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...1 TO 2 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SURGE-
RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND
THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TORNADOES...A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT OVER
COASTAL PORTIONS OF GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND NORTH CAROLINA.
A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY FROM EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
NORTHWARD TO COASTAL VIRGINIA.
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 125 Comments: 117584
...ANDREA MOVING NORTHEASTWARD A LITTLE FASTER...

2:00 AM EDT Fri Jun 7
Location: 31.3°N 81.7°W
Moving: NE at 19 mph
Min pressure: 996 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph
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Andrea is likely already subtropical
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Tropical Storm Andrea made landfall near 5:40 pm EDT in the Big Bend region of Florida as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Andrea had a busy day Thursday in Florida, dumping heavy rains, spawning ten tornadoes, and bringing a storm surge of up to 4.5' to the coast. While the Hurricane Hunters did measure sustained winds of 65 mph over the ocean shortly before landfall, very few land stations recorded sustained winds in excess of tropical storm force, 39 mph. Here are some of the higher winds measured at coastal stations:

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ANDREA MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
5:45 PM EDT Thu Jun 6
Location: 29.5°N 83.4°W
Moving: NE at 17 mph
Min pressure: 993 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 125 Comments: 117584
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013
545 PM EDT THU JUN 06 2013

...ANDREA MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...

SUMMARY OF 540 PM EDT...2140 UTC...INFORMATION
------------------------------------------------- -
LOCATION...29.5N 83.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NNW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM W OF GAINSVILLE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES

RADAR...SATELLITE...AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM
ANDREA MADE LANDFALL IN DIXIE COUNTY FLORIDA...ABOUT 10 MILES...16
KM...SOUTH OF STEINHATCHEE FLORIDA AROUND 540 PM EDT...2140 UTC. AT
THE TIME OF LANDFALL...ANDREA HAD MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65
MPH...100 KM/H.

WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OR SO...A WIND GUST OF 48 MPH...78 KM/H...WAS
REPORTED AT CEDAR KEY FLORIDA. OTHER RECENT WIND GUSTS INCLUDE 46
MPH...74 KM/H...AT MACDILL AIR FORCE BASE NEAR TAMPA...AND 39
MPH...63 KM/H...AT BROOKSVILLE FLORIDA.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/STEWART
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013
500 PM EDT THU JUN 06 2013

...ANDREA ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...
...RAINS AND WINDS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U. S.
COAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 83.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NNW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
WEST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BOCA GRANDE TO THE OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER
* FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.4 WEST. ANDREA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANDREA
WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION SHORTLY. AFTER
LANDFALL...ANDREA WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE EAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. THE STORM SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL...AND ANDREA
SHOULD LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY SATURDAY AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER. THE NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
RECENTLY REPORTED 10-MINUTE WINDS OF 41 MPH...67 KM/HR...AND A GUST
OF 56 MPH...91 KM/HR.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND
IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD TO AUCILLA RIVER...2 TO 4 FT
FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT
FLAGLER BEACH NORTH TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...1 TO 2 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA LANDFALL LOCATION. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING
DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...
AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC
TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...EASTERN PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...AND EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE ALSO EXPECTED ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH DOWNEAST
MAINE.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

TORNADOES...A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND IN THE COASTAL PORTIONS OF GEORGIA...SOUTH
CAROLINA...AND NORTH CAROLINA.

Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 125 Comments: 117584
Tropical Storm ANDREA
5:00 PM EDT Thu Jun 6
Location: 29.5°N 83.4°W
Moving: NE at 17 mph
Min pressure: 993 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 125 Comments: 117584
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al922013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201306061923
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 92, 2013, DB, O, 2013060618, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL922013
AL, 92, 2013060618, , BEST, 0, 136N, 467W, 30, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 125 Comments: 117584
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 125 Comments: 117584
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 125 Comments: 117584
Andrea's place in history
Andrea formed in a typical location for early-season storms. The Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Bahamas are the usual areas for the genesis of June tropical storms. Andrea's formation date of June 5 is over a month earlier than the average July 9 date for formation of the season's first named storm. On average, the Atlantic sees one June named storm every two years. In 2012, we'd already had two named storms by this point in the season--Alberto and Beryl. This year is the second time a storm named Andrea has appeared in the Atlantic. The previous incarnation, Subtropical Storm Andrea of 2007, wandered off the U.S. East Coast in May, and never made landfall. The 2013 version of Andrea is highly unlikely to get its name retired, and we'll be seeing a third coming of the storm in 2019.
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 125 Comments: 117584
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013
400 AM CDT THU JUN 06 2013

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT ANDREA IS STRONGER. THE PLANE REPORTED
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 63 KNOTS AT 5000 FEET AND BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR
WINDS OF 49 KNOTS IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT. THE CENTRAL PRESSURES
REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WERE 997 MB FROM A DROP AND 996 MB
EXTRAPOLATED. ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS. WE MUST EMPHASIZE THAT THESE STRONG WINDS
ARE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.

ANDREA IS PROBABLY NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY SINCE STRONG SHEAR SHOULD
HALT ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION BEFORE LANDFALL. ANDREA WILL
INTERACT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND BEGIN TO LOSE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...BUT TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.

FIXES FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT ANDREA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ABOUT 11 KNOTS. GIVEN THE FORECAST
STEERING PATTERN PROVIDED BY GLOBAL MODELS...ANDREA SHOULD SOON
BEGIN TO ACCELERATE AND TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SLOWER ECMWF AND THE FASTER GFS
MODELS.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER OF ANDREA...THE
PRIMARY EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES TODAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 27.0N 85.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 29.0N 84.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 32.0N 82.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 07/1800Z 36.0N 78.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 08/0600Z 39.0N 73.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 09/0600Z 46.5N 59.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 10/0600Z 46.5N 37.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/0600Z 52.5N 23.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 125 Comments: 117584
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 125 Comments: 117584
ANDREA A LITTLE STRONGER HEADING TOWARD THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 85.9W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 125 Comments: 117584
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 282
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
345 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2013

TORNADO WATCH 282 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

FLC009-011-015-017-021-027-043-049-051-053-055-05 7-061-069-071-
081-085-086-093-095-097-099-101-103-105-111-115-1 17-119-
061500-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0282.130606T0745Z-130606T1500Z/

FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BREVARD BROWARD CHARLOTTE
CITRUS COLLIER DESOTO
GLADES HARDEE HENDRY
HERNANDO HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH
INDIAN RIVER LAKE LEE
MANATEE MARTIN MIAMI-DADE
OKEECHOBEE ORANGE OSCEOLA
PALM BEACH PASCO PINELLAS
POLK SARASOTA SEMINOLE
ST. LUCIE SUMTER
$$
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 282
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
345 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2013

TORNADO WATCH 282 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

AMZ552-555-572-610-630-650-651-GMZ656-830-853-856 -061500-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0282.130606T0745Z-130606T1500Z/

CW

. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM

SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM

VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM

LAKE OKEECHOBEE

BISCAYNE BAY

COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM

TAMPA BAY WATERS

COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM

$$
ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...MFL...
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 125 Comments: 117584
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 125 Comments: 117584
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 125 Comments: 117584
ANDREA MOVING NORTHWARD A LITTLE FASTER...
1:00 AM CDT Thu Jun 6
Location: 26.8°N 86.2°W
Moving: N at 10 mph
Min pressure: 1001 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 125 Comments: 117584
Time: 04:51:30Z
Coordinates: 26.9833N 86.65W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.9 mb (~ 24.89 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,522 meters (~ 4,993 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1004.7 mb (~ 29.67 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 54° at 31 knots (From the NE at ~ 35.6 mph)
Air Temp: 16.0°C (~ 60.8°F)
Dew Pt: 15.6°C (~ 60.1°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 32 knots (~ 36.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 29 knots (~ 33.3 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr (~ 0 in/hr)
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 125 Comments: 117584
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 125 Comments: 117584

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