hurricanemike's WunderBlog

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1125 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008

THIS STATEMENT CONCERNS TWO TROPICAL WEATHER SYSTEMS.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER-ORGANIZED. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM HAS FORMED. ALL INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15-20 MPH. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST OFF THE COASTS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA IS ALSO BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM TODAY OR TOMORROW. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE COAST. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

Both of them are blowing up nicely on satellite loops:

SW Atl Vis Loop



NMOC (US Navy Weather Center) just issued a TCFA:

RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 31.0N 80.6W TO 32.9N 78.8W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1012MB IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60NM NORTHEAST OF JACKSONVILLE, FL. MOVEMENT ISNORTH-NORTHEAST AT APPROXIMATELY 5 KNOTS. ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS ARE 20 TO 30 KNOTS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THIS SYSTEM REMAINS OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MOVES INTO A REGION OF DECREASING SHEAR.
3. NMFC WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS EVOLVING WEATHER SITUATION AND ISSUE FURTHER WEATHER ADVISORIES AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.
PLEASE SEE REF A FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, ALLOWED TO EXPIRE, OR CANCELLED BY 191600Z JUL 2008.//



94L looks to go into the Gulf


While 96L looks to huge the SE Coast into the Mid Atlantic

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL1045 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2008SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER-ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE INVESTIGATING THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS FORMED. EVEN IF NO D...

3/4 of the model consenus is turning E and SE into a half a loop. Will she do a full loop and go W and possibly threaten the SE U.S.Stay turned...I don't think the 2nd trough/cold front will take it out to sea.

200 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 330 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAL IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WE...