Tropical Update 2014: Impressive CAT IV Hurricane Gonzalo Barreling Toward Bermuda

By: hurricaneben, 7:29 PM GMT on October 16, 2014

Generally low wind shear (below 15 knots) among multiple other factors helped aid in an impressive burst of intensification for high-end category four Hurricane Gonzales, estimated sustained winds clocked at around 145 MPH, and Bermuda should take the preventive actions necessary to brace for powerful hurricane conditions capable of producing major destruction. Some steady weakening is expected before Gonzalo makes its closest approach to the island late tomorrow, a...

Tropical Update 2014: Hurricane Gonzales Slams Leeward Islands, Bermuda In Crosshairs

By: hurricaneben, 11:51 PM GMT on October 13, 2014

With the Northern Lesser Antilles under the gun for hurricane conditions and very heavy downpours capable of producing dangerous flash flooding, the danger from newly-formed Hurricane Gonzales is far from subsiding. With shear moderate to low (10-20 knot range) in Gonzales's immediate path, conditions are expected to remain fairly conducive for some steady intensification in the coming few days. Winds are at around 80 MPH, making it a mid-level category one, and thi...

Hurricane Cristobal Not A Direct Threat To US;Other AOIs, One Poised To Drench Texas

By: hurricaneben, 11:18 PM GMT on August 26, 2014

There is no shortage of activity in the tropics to keep an eye on, with category one Hurricane Cristobal forecast to spare the Continental US from a direct hit but might directly contribute to dangerous swells from Florida to New England. There are two areas of interest that have a valid possibility of development in the next 72 hours, one of which may or may not be a long-range threat to the CONUS and could add insult to injury for the Lesser Antilles--who suffered...

Tropical Update 2014: TD-4 Forms, Is A Substantial Threat To East Coast

By: hurricaneben, 8:59 PM GMT on August 23, 2014

The past few days served as a key reminder that no matter what the model consensus is for a developing system, nothing is ever set in stone. This is due to the location and strength of high-pressure patterns and a location misreading, that the consensus has now shifted back to the south and west, indicating that the risk for a direct threat to the US Eastern Seaboard is far higher than my previous analysis. With Tropical Depression Four positioned near the SE Bahama...

Invest 96L To Lash N Lesser Antilles With Flooding Rainfall;Threat Lower For CONUS

By: hurricaneben, 10:19 PM GMT on August 21, 2014

Dry air has been strongly inhibiting much in the way of development in the past week, and this is set to change as Invest 96L approaches a more moist environment in the NE Caribbean. Model guidance has shifted significantly to the east since its initial runs, with the consensus now favoring a N/NE turn out to sea without making a direct hit on the CONUS. It is not a time to let your guard down though, as we've seen over the years, forecasts are subject to change wit...

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About hurricaneben

Will devote this hurricane season to provide up-to-the-minute, basic information when a tropical system is threatening land. Both basins included.