Hurricane Cristobal Not A Direct Threat To US;Other AOIs, One Poised To Drench Texas

By: hurricaneben, 11:18 PM GMT on August 26, 2014

There is no shortage of activity in the tropics to keep an eye on, with category one Hurricane Cristobal forecast to spare the Continental US from a direct hit but might directly contribute to dangerous swells from Florida to New England. There are two areas of interest that have a valid possibility of development in the next 72 hours, one of which may or may not be a long-range threat to the CONUS and could add insult to injury for the Lesser Antilles--who suffered...

Tropical Update 2014: TD-4 Forms, Is A Substantial Threat To East Coast

By: hurricaneben, 8:59 PM GMT on August 23, 2014

The past few days served as a key reminder that no matter what the model consensus is for a developing system, nothing is ever set in stone. This is due to the location and strength of high-pressure patterns and a location misreading, that the consensus has now shifted back to the south and west, indicating that the risk for a direct threat to the US Eastern Seaboard is far higher than my previous analysis. With Tropical Depression Four positioned near the SE Bahama...

Invest 96L To Lash N Lesser Antilles With Flooding Rainfall;Threat Lower For CONUS

By: hurricaneben, 10:19 PM GMT on August 21, 2014

Dry air has been strongly inhibiting much in the way of development in the past week, and this is set to change as Invest 96L approaches a more moist environment in the NE Caribbean. Model guidance has shifted significantly to the east since its initial runs, with the consensus now favoring a N/NE turn out to sea without making a direct hit on the CONUS. It is not a time to let your guard down though, as we've seen over the years, forecasts are subject to change wit...

Tropical Update 2014: Closely Monitoring 96L For Potential Caribbean, GOM Threat

By: hurricaneben, 10:50 PM GMT on August 19, 2014

Following a lull in activity between Bertha and this developing system (96L), I have been too caught up in other priorities to make a valid update. As we approach the peak of the season, adversely pervasive dry air is inhibiting short-term development in the Central Atlantic but this might change in the coming days as 96L enters a more conducive environment in the NE Caribbean Sea. Uncertainty remains high and guidance models are split on whether Hispaniola and Cuba...

Tropical Update 2014: TS Bertha Forms, Bears Down On Martinique, Virgin Islands

By: hurricaneben, 7:31 PM GMT on August 01, 2014

Following a quiet lull in tropical activity, we are tracking newly-formed Tropical Storm Bertha and its immediate effects on the Lesser Antilles (particularly Barbados and Martinique in the coming hours) and the potential for significant impacts on the Dominican Republic, an area susceptible to devastating flash floods.
Maximum sustained winds remain at around 50 MPH, as of the 2PM advisory, and it is racing to the WNW at 22 MPH on a collision course that woul...

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About hurricaneben

Will devote this hurricane season to provide up-to-the-minute, basic information when a tropical system is threatening land. Both basins included.