A Few Interesting Long-Term NCEP Features

By: hurricaneben , 10:39 PM GMT on April 14, 2011

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Hello, although this doesn't confirm that it'll definitely happen--I wanna discuss a few interesting features tropical-wise that the NCEP wunderground model have been pointing out recently. First off about 150-200 hours out say late next week they are predicting a pure tropical storm in the Eastern Pacific 'Adrian' the storm would be named, packing about 40-50 MPH winds and having minimum pressure of about 1003 mb (making it a weak to moderate TS) and move W then WNW then slowly make its way NW toward the pacific coast of Mexico where it could make landfall as a TD/weak TS. And about 350-400 hours out (the following week, in very late April) it is showing a potential tropical disturbance near Honduras and even more interesting a decent-looking subtropical storm 'Arlene' off the NC outer banks on Saturday, April 30 packing a minimum pressure of 1004 mb and winds of about 40 MPH--I'm not even making this up. That was the most recent NCEP model and they have updates every six hours. I'll update if any major model forecast occurs worth mentioning.

The prediction of the subtropical storm has faded but the early-season tropical storm in the E PAC still exists as of this brand-new model forecast update.

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About hurricaneben

Will devote this hurricane season to provide up-to-the-minute, basic information when a tropical system is threatening land. Both basins included.