Will devote this hurricane season to provide up-to-the-minute, basic information when a tropical system is threatening land. Both basins included.
By: hurricaneben , 12:19 AM GMT on September 14, 2013
The tropics remain quite busy but, by far, the biggest tropical headlines remains Tropical Storm Ingrid which has been strengthening and now has winds up to around 60 MPH. Very strong winds and many hours to days of continuous torrential rainfall make this a real danger for much of Mainland Mexico's eastern shoreline along the Bay Of Campeche. A hurricane watch is now up from north of Cabo Rojo upwards to around La Pesca, so residents there should be especially on alert but the danger doesn't end there at all. A large part of eastern Mexico may see epic rainfall amounts upwards of 10 to 15 inches in many areas with isolated amounts over 25 inches. This is enough to cause widespread and extremely dangerous flash flooding and landslides in an area which has been blasted by very wet tropical systems in the past couple of months. The very slow movement should aid in the especially elevated risk of flooding. The official forecast does make it a minimal hurricane upon landfall, so scattered wind damage will also be a hazard though not to the extent of the flooding. Southeast Texas, which definitely needs a lot of the moisture and rainfall, may see beneficial rainfall amounts of 2 to as much as 5 inches but considering the dry soil in the region, fortunately widespread significant flooding is not a concern at all in that portion of the state (Brownsville, Corpus Christi, etc).
Another reason that Mexico may be in shape for a dangerous flooding situation is the presence of newly-formed Tropical Storm Manuel in the eastern Pacific which is headed towards the Pacific coast of Mexico with winds around 45 MPH. Some more gradual strengthening is expected could bring it up to a strong tropical storm or borderline hurricane before landfall late tomorrow/early Sunday. NW portions of Mainland Mexico may see isolated rainfall amounts over 20 inches so there definitely is a considerable concern for dangerous flooding in these area too but the biggest concern is if the moisture from Manuel combines with TS/Hurricane Ingrid's and that will lead to the most dangerous threat of flooding over inland northern Mexico. This is definitely a scenario to carefully monitor, a serious situation for residents and visitors to the flood-stricken nation.
This update on Humberto will be brief: it is weakening as it stays well out over open Atlantic waters but re-strengthening is a strong possibility once it enters more favorable conditions for development around the start of the upcoming work week. It could re-strengthen into a minimal hurricane by Wednesday but the good news is that, as it stands, absolutely no land masses stand in the way of any (in)direct impacts so this won't be of concern to anyone--with Ingrid and Manuel out there, we don't need any more hurricane threats whatsoever.
Elsewhere, Gabrielle has dissipated just south of Nova Scotia. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches may impact much of Atlantic Canada from the remnants regardless but the threat of flooding and/or damage is very low at this point. I'll have another update either tomorrow or Sunday.
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