Will devote this hurricane season to provide up-to-the-minute, basic information when a tropical system is threatening land. Both basins included.
By: hurricaneben , 10:02 PM GMT on September 01, 2013
Since TS Fernand came and went, the tropics have remained unusually quiet for late August (a time when the tropics really start to increase in activity) but it looks like we may have a break with Invest 97L which is approaching the Lesser Antilles. Shear should lessen somewhat in the coming couple of days and a closed circulation has been evident in the past few hours with the latest model runs. Development into a TD/TS by as early as tomorrow definitely seems like a considerable possibility even though the models aren't as keen on development as they should be. There is still a decent presence of dry air which should help inhibit any fast paced organization but all the other factors are favoring a slow but steady rate of intensification. Models generally take it on a path that would brush it with Haiti and/or take it directly overland but from there on, the possibilities are spread out. It is currently unknown if this will ever directly threaten the Lower 48 so that is something that we will watch out for but definitely the Lesser Antilles, Eastern Cuba and an especially high-risk Haiti should keep a very close eye on this potential tropical cyclone candidate. Will it manage to become the season's first hurricane? At this time the odds are generally stacked against anything along these lines but with its very slow movement, something close to hurricane status is not completely out of the question--we'll have to see if it can quickly spin up into a tropical cyclone first. NHC gives it a 50% chance of TC formation in the next five days, I'd give it around a 70%, considering the rate of development and how close it may be to TD status. Regardless of development, Lesser Antilles may want to embrace increased heavy showers capable of flash flooding and gusty winds up to gale force in the next 12 to 36 hours.
After peaking close to hurricane status in the past 24 hours, Tropical Storm Kiko is starting to gradually weakening with winds now down to around 60 MPH and further gradual weakening forecast in the next couple of days. Either way, this should stay well out at sea and likely not threaten any land masses.
I'll have another update on the tropics as early as tomorrow or as late as Wednesday. Have a safe Labor Day and keep your eye out.
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