Will devote this hurricane season to provide up-to-the-minute, basic information when a tropical system is threatening land. Both basins included.
By: hurricaneben , 7:27 PM GMT on July 27, 2013
The tropical train keeps on rolling--Tropical Storm Dorian has been gradually weakening and falling apart, now the threat to the Lesser Antilles is diminishing while Tropical Storm Flossie has strengthened quite a bit and may actually bring squally weather to the 'Big Island' by the start of the upcoming week though as a quite weaker tropical storm and another area of interest (90L) may bring wet weather to the Northeast US in the next few days, the question is could it develop?
Our first area of concern is Tropical Storm Dorian which has been the main headline since the start of the past week. Winds are now down to 40 MPH and further weakening should occur later today into a depression and likely a remnant low in the next couple of days. There does not appear to be any significant threat to land from Dorian now--increased rain chances for Puerto Rico/US Virgin Islands are definitely in the forecast but due to the lack of organization and low intensity, I don't expect more than some sporadic moderate to heavy showers on these islands. There's always the chance of regeneration later down the road, maybe in the Florida Straits/Gulf Of Mexico, but dry air has interfered with the structure and intensity so much that even that seems unlikely.
Tropical Storm Flossie is now the more relevant story in the tropics because it may pose a threat to Hawaii around Tuesday, though the threat won't be that substantial. Flossie has strengthened to now around 65 MPH so that's quite a bit but weakening should start in the next 24 hours and it will definitely be weaker by the time it nears the Hawaiian islands. Looking at Flossie's pace, we could see some localized flooding and minor wind damage but not as high of a flood threat as if it were moving slower. The motion is at 20 MPH so that will limit the amount of heavy rainfall that will fall in areas most affected. So something to watch, outdoor plans may be wrecked come Tuesday or Wednesday but it's worth waiting out because we should see conditions greatly dry up by Thursday, going by the current forecast track. The last time a tropical storm caused any direct impacts to the island chain was with TS Omeka in December 2010. Many hurricanes' remnants have caused increased rainfall and/or surf but it's relatively rare to see a tropical cyclone directly hit the Hawaiian islands.
An area of low pressure has formed just offshore NC Outer Banks and is moving NNE in the general direction of the New England coastline. Some development may occur in the short term but not all that much due to the colder waters that lie in its path. There is an existent chance we may see a TD/TS briefly spin up by tomorrow, so there is that limited window of opportunity but it has to act quick or the unfavorable conditions (particularly SSTs) will tear it apart. Regardless, an increased chance of wet weather in the next few days for the Northeast US and maybe some windier conditions will likely play out so be alert for that possibility. The NHC gives this one a 20% chance of TC formation by Monday afternoon.
I'll have another update tomorrow or Monday.
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